PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF THE MAXIMAL LOAD OF INDUSTRIAL MACHINES

This study describes the statistical analysis of peak forces of industrial washing machines. The data source comes from twelve different machines. The measurements are done using a force gauge installed in places for fastening screws. A new software based on LabView has been developed to gauge the acting forces. To determine extreme force values, various probability distributions are applied. Furthermore, a convex combination of lognormal distribution is used in more complicated cases. The parameters of the lognormal mixtures are determined using modified an Expectation-maximization algorithm. Finally, the achieved results are interpreted with regard to the engineering design and to the operating reliability.

Cost-Effectiveness of Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab With and Without Chemotherapy for Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

BackgroundFirst-line treatment with nivolumab plus ipilimumab (N+I) or nivolumab plus ipilimumab with two cycles of chemotherapy (N+I+chemotherapy) improve overall survival and progression-free survival for patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), yet researchers have not concomitantly compared the cost-effectiveness of N+I and N+I+chemotherapy with chemotherapy alone.Materials and methodsUsing outcomes data from the CheckMate 227 and CheckMate 9LA phase 3 randomized trials, we developed a Markov model with lifetime horizon to compare the costs and effectiveness of N+I and N+I+chemotherapy versus chemotherapy from the U.S. health care sector perspective. Subgroup analysis by programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression levels (≥1% and <1%) and probabilistic analysis were performed.ResultsThe incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of N+I versus chemotherapy was $239,072 per QALY, and $838,198 per QALY for N+I+chemotherapy versus N+I. The ICER of N+I versus chemotherapy was $246,584 per QALY for patients with PD-L1 ≥ 1% and $185,620 per QALY for those with PD-L1 < 1%. In probabilistic analysis, N+I had a 2.6% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000 per QALY. The probability was 0.4% for patients with PD-L1 ≥ 1% and 10.6% for patients with PD-L1 < 1%.ConclusionFirst-line N+I or N+I+chemotherapy for metastatic NSCLC was not cost-effective regardless of PD-L1 expression levels from the U.S. health care sector perspective.

Relative Risk Prediction of Norovirus Incidence under Climate Change in Korea

As incidences of food poisoning, especially norovirus-induced diarrhea, are associated with climate change, there is a need for an approach that can be used to predict the risks of such illnesses with high accuracy. In this paper, we predict the winter norovirus incidence rate in Korea compared to that of other diarrhea-causing viruses using a model based on B-spline added to logistic regression to estimate the long-term pattern of illness. We also develop a risk index based on the estimated probability of occurrence. Our probabilistic analysis shows that the risk of norovirus-related food poisoning in winter will remain stable or increase in Korea based on various Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Our approach can be used to obtain an overview of the changes occurring in regional and seasonal norovirus patterns that can help assist in making appropriate policy decisions.