Climate change impacts on water resources in North African basins

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yves Tramblay ◽  
Denis Ruelland ◽  
Lahoucine Hanich ◽  
Zoubeida Bargaoui ◽  
Hammouda Dakhlaoui
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
North African ◽  
Surface Water Resources ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

<p>Countries in North Africa are facing water scarcity and a high inter-annual variability of precipitation. In this context, many dams have been built to collect surface water and improve the management of existing water resources. We present the main results of a recent MISTRALS-ENVIMED research project about the potential climate change impacts on water resources at the regional and basin scales. The project notably focuses on the uncertainties linked to the different components of the modelling chain required to produce hydrological scenarios. Climate change impacts on surface water resources are investigated using an ensemble of regional climate model simulations from the CORDEX experiment under different emission scenarios and different hydrological models, adapted to the context of data scarcity. Climate scenarios under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over North Africa indicate a future decrease in precipitation together with an increase in temperature that could have significant impacts on water resources. Indeed, a future decrease of surface water availability is expected in all major dam catchments, with a stronger decline over Morocco.</p>

scholarly journals Simulating Climate Change Impacts on Surface Water Resources Within a Lake‐Affected Region Using Regional Climate Projections

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 130-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre R. Erler ◽  
Steven K. Frey ◽  
Omar Khader ◽  
Marc d'Orgeville ◽  
Young‐Jin Park ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Surface Water Resources ◽  
Regional Climate Projections

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Shiyang River Basin and the Adaptive Measures for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction

2013 ◽  
Vol 405-408 ◽  
pp. 2167-2171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhou Li ◽  
Xiao Yan Li ◽  
Juan Sun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Energy Conservation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Surface Water Resources ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Climate is an important factor which formed and affected surface water resources. Through sensitivity analysis of natural runoff towards climate change, assuming the main factors effect runoff are precipitation and temperature, then according to the possible tendency of climate changes in the future, set climate scenarios, and use the hydrological model simulate the changes trend of runoff under different climate scenarios, thereby analyze the climate change impacts on surface water resources. The results show that annual runoff will be increased with the increasing annual precipitation, and it will be reduced with rise of annual temperature, the sensitivity that annual runoff towards the change of precipitation and temperature are equally notable, both of them are two major factors impact on the change of runoff and the precipitation change impacts on annual runoff will be even more obvious in flood season. Last, with the global warming trend, put forward the corresponding adaptive measures of energy conservation and emissions reduction。

scholarly journals Adaptability of Mediterranean Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: The Example of the Sierra Mágina Olive-Growing Region (Andalusia, Spain). Part II: The Future

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 451-467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josyane Ronchail ◽  
Marianne Cohen ◽  
María Alonso-Roldán ◽  
Hélène Garcin ◽  
Benjamin Sultan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Olive Tree ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water Resources ◽  
Annual Reduction

Abstract The adaptability of olive-growing systems to climate change is studied in the Sierra Mágina region (Andalusia) using an interdisciplinary approach that evaluates and makes associations across climate, water resources, and socioeconomic strategies. First, the evolution of rainfall and temperature during the twenty-first century is assessed at the local scale using 17 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. A 15%–30% rainfall reduction is expected in the fall combined with a 7%–9% annual reduction by 2030–50. Based on a regression model relating yields to rainfall, residual yields (independent of the increasing trend in the present period and from the biennial fruit bearing of the olive tree) are projected to decrease by 7% and 3.5% by 2030–50 for rainfed and irrigated olive groves, respectively. Substantial uncertainties in these results are discussed. A GIS analysis shows a reduction of ground and surface water resources, which are the basis of the present adaptation to rainfall variability, and an uneven potential for adaptation to climate change in the Sierra Mágina region. Despite the important challenges faced by this rural region, there is no consensus among the local key actors regarding adaptation strategies. This is due in part to the diversity among farmers, but also to the different levels of awareness about climate change among all the stakeholders and farmers. Since the projected decline in medium-range future yields is not very high, there might be time and possibilities, especially in the northern part of the Sierra Mágina, to build a local adaptability strategy within the next 20 years that would take into account improved methods of water management and a better economic valorization of olive oil. But at longer time scales, the adaptability of the olive-growing system to yield and water resource declines seems to be threatened.

Climate change impacts on surface water resources in the Rheraya catchment (High Atlas, Morocco)

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (6) ◽  
pp. 979-995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Marchane ◽  
Yves Tramblay ◽  
Lahoucine Hanich ◽  
Denis Ruelland ◽  
Lionel Jarlan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
High Atlas ◽  
Surface Water Resources

Climate change impacts on surface water resources in the Oued El Abid basin, Morocco

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
El Mahdi El Khalki ◽  
Yves Tramblay ◽  
Lahoucine Hanich ◽  
Ahmed Marchane ◽  
Abdelghani Boudhar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Surface Water Resources

Elevation-dependent drying signals under future climate change – a case study for Austria

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klaus Haslinger ◽  
Gregor Laaha ◽  
Wolfgang Schöner ◽  
Andre Konrad ◽  
Marc Olefs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

<p>In this contribution future changes of surface water availability over the Austrian domain is investigated. We use an ensemble of downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative under moderate mitigation (RCP4.5) and Paris agreement (RCP2.6) emission scenarios. The climatic water balance and its components (rainfall, snow melt, glacier melt and potential evapotranspiration) are used as indicators for surface water availability and we focus on different altitudinal classes (lowland, mountainous and high alpine) to depict a variety of processes in complex terrain. Apart from analysing the mean changes of these quantities we also pursue a hazard risk approach by estimating changes in return periods of drought events of a given magnitude as observed in the reference period. The results show in general wetter conditions over the course of the 21<sup>st</sup> century over Austria. Considering seasonal differences, winter and spring will be getting wetter due to an increase in precipitation along with a higher rainfall/snowfall fraction as a consequence of rising temperatures. In summer only little changes in the ensemble median of the climatic water balance are visible, hence uncertainties are large due to a considerable ensemble spread. However, by analysing changes in return periods of drought events, a robust signal of increasing risk of moderate and extreme drought events during summer is apparent. It emerges from an increase in interannual variability of the climatic water balance, which likely stems from intensified land-atmosphere coupling under climate change sustaining and intensifying spring preconditions towards even wetter or dryer summers.</p>

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