Elevation-dependent drying signals under future climate change – a case study for Austria

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klaus Haslinger ◽  
Gregor Laaha ◽  
Wolfgang Schöner ◽  
Andre Konrad ◽  
Marc Olefs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

<p>In this contribution future changes of surface water availability over the Austrian domain is investigated. We use an ensemble of downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative under moderate mitigation (RCP4.5) and Paris agreement (RCP2.6) emission scenarios. The climatic water balance and its components (rainfall, snow melt, glacier melt and potential evapotranspiration) are used as indicators for surface water availability and we focus on different altitudinal classes (lowland, mountainous and high alpine) to depict a variety of processes in complex terrain. Apart from analysing the mean changes of these quantities we also pursue a hazard risk approach by estimating changes in return periods of drought events of a given magnitude as observed in the reference period. The results show in general wetter conditions over the course of the 21<sup>st</sup> century over Austria. Considering seasonal differences, winter and spring will be getting wetter due to an increase in precipitation along with a higher rainfall/snowfall fraction as a consequence of rising temperatures. In summer only little changes in the ensemble median of the climatic water balance are visible, hence uncertainties are large due to a considerable ensemble spread. However, by analysing changes in return periods of drought events, a robust signal of increasing risk of moderate and extreme drought events during summer is apparent. It emerges from an increase in interannual variability of the climatic water balance, which likely stems from intensified land-atmosphere coupling under climate change sustaining and intensifying spring preconditions towards even wetter or dryer summers.</p>

scholarly journals High-resolution projections of surface water availability for Tasmania, Australia

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1287-1303 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Bennett ◽  
F. L. N. Ling ◽  
D. A. Post ◽  
M. R. Grose ◽  
S. P. Corney ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Daily Streamflow

Abstract. Changes to streamflows caused by climate change may have major impacts on the management of water for hydro-electricity generation and agriculture in Tasmania, Australia. We describe changes to Tasmanian surface water availability from 1961–1990 to 2070–2099 using high-resolution simulations. Six fine-scale (∼10 km2) simulations of daily rainfall and potential evapotranspiration are generated with the CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), a variable-resolution regional climate model (RCM). These variables are bias-corrected with quantile mapping and used as direct inputs to the hydrological models AWBM, IHACRES, Sacramento, SIMHYD and SMAR-G to project streamflows. The performance of the hydrological models is assessed against 86 streamflow gauges across Tasmania. The SIMHYD model is the least biased (median bias = −3%) while IHACRES has the largest bias (median bias = −22%). We find the hydrological models that best simulate observed streamflows produce similar streamflow projections. There is much greater variation in projections between RCM simulations than between hydrological models. Marked decreases of up to 30% are projected for annual runoff in central Tasmania, while runoff is generally projected to increase in the east. Daily streamflow variability is projected to increase for most of Tasmania, consistent with increases in rainfall intensity. Inter-annual variability of streamflows is projected to increase across most of Tasmania. This is the first major Australian study to use high-resolution bias-corrected rainfall and potential evapotranspiration projections as direct inputs to hydrological models. Our study shows that these simulations are capable of producing realistic streamflows, allowing for increased confidence in assessing future changes to surface water variability.

scholarly journals High-resolution projections of surface water availability for Tasmania, Australia

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 1783-1825 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Bennett ◽  
F. L. N. Ling ◽  
D. A. Post ◽  
M. R. Grose ◽  
S. C. Corney ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Daily Streamflow

Abstract. Changes to streamflows caused by climate change may have major impacts on the management of water for hydro-electric generation and agriculture in Tasmania, Australia. We present high-resolution projections of Tasmanian surface water availability between 1961–1990 and 2070–2099. Six fine-scale (10 km) simulations of daily rainfall and potential evapotranspiration are generated with the CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), a variable-resolution regional climate model (RCM). These variables are bias-corrected with quantile mapping and used as direct inputs to the hydrological models AWBM, IHACRES, Sacramento, SIMHYD and SMAR-G to project streamflows. The performance of the hydrological models is assessed against 86 streamflow gauges across Tasmania. The SIMHYD model is the least biased (median bias = −3%) while IHACRES has the largest bias (median bias = −22%). We find the hydrological models that best simulate observed streamflows produce similar streamflow projections. In contrast, the poorly performing IHACRES model amplifies changes more than the other hydrological models. There is much more variation in projections between RCM simulations than between hydrological models. This shows that it is more important to consider the range of RCM simulations than the range of hydrological models used here to adequately describe uncertainty in the projections. We use the SIMHYD model to describe future changes to streamflow in eight rivers. Changes to streamflows are projected to vary by region. Marked decreases of up to 30% are projected for annual runoff in central Tasmania, while runoff is generally projected to increase in the east. Daily streamflow variability is projected to increase for most of Tasmania, consistent with increases in rainfall intensity. Inter-annual variability of streamflows is projected to increase across most of Tasmania. This is the first major Australian study to use high-resolution bias-corrected rainfall and potential evapotranspiration projections as direct inputs to hydrological models. Our study shows that these simulations are capable of producing realistic streamflows, allowing for increased confidence in assessing future changes to surface water variability.

Climate change impacts on water resources in North African basins

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yves Tramblay ◽  
Denis Ruelland ◽  
Lahoucine Hanich ◽  
Zoubeida Bargaoui ◽  
Hammouda Dakhlaoui
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
North African ◽  
Surface Water Resources ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

<p>Countries in North Africa are facing water scarcity and a high inter-annual variability of precipitation. In this context, many dams have been built to collect surface water and improve the management of existing water resources. We present the main results of a recent MISTRALS-ENVIMED research project about the potential climate change impacts on water resources at the regional and basin scales. The project notably focuses on the uncertainties linked to the different components of the modelling chain required to produce hydrological scenarios. Climate change impacts on surface water resources are investigated using an ensemble of regional climate model simulations from the CORDEX experiment under different emission scenarios and different hydrological models, adapted to the context of data scarcity. Climate scenarios under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over North Africa indicate a future decrease in precipitation together with an increase in temperature that could have significant impacts on water resources. Indeed, a future decrease of surface water availability is expected in all major dam catchments, with a stronger decline over Morocco.</p>

scholarly journals Ensemble Projection of Future Climate and Surface Water Supplies in the North Saskatchewan River Basin above Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 2425
Author(s):  
Muhammad Rehan Anis ◽  
David J. Sauchyn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Water Supplies ◽  
The North

Changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to alter the seasonal distribution of surface water supplies in snowmelt-dominated watersheds. A realistic assessment of future climate change and inter-annual variability is required to meet a growing demand for water supplies in all major use sectors. This study focuses on changes in climate and runoff in the North Saskatchewan River Basin (NSRB) above Edmonton, AB, Canada, using the MESH (Modélisation Environnementale communautaire—Surface Hydrology) model. The bias-corrected ensemble of Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) data is used to drive MESH for two 60-year time periods, a historical baseline (1951–2010) and future projection (2041–2100), under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. The precipitation is projected to increase in every season, there is significant trend in spring (0.62) and fall (0.41) and insignificant in summer (0.008). Winter extreme minimum temperature and summer extreme maximum temperature are increasing by 2–3 °C in the near future and 5–6 °C in the far future. Annual runoff increases by 19% compared to base period. The results reveal long-term hydrological variability enabling water resource managers to better prepare for climate change and extreme events to build more resilient systems for future water demand in the NSRB.

scholarly journals An update of IPCC climate reference regions for subcontinental analysis of climate model data: definition and aggregated datasets

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 2959-2970
Author(s):  
Maialen Iturbide ◽  
José M. Gutiérrez ◽  
Lincoln M. Alves ◽  
Joaquín Bedia ◽  
Ruth Cerezo-Mota ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Scatter Plots ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract. Several sets of reference regions have been used in the literature for the regional synthesis of observed and modelled climate and climate change information. A popular example is the series of reference regions used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Adaptation (SREX). The SREX regions were slightly modified for the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC and used for reporting subcontinental observed and projected changes over a reduced number (33) of climatologically consistent regions encompassing a representative number of grid boxes. These regions are intended to allow analysis of atmospheric data over broad land or ocean regions and have been used as the basis for several popular spatially aggregated datasets, such as the Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitation in IPCC Regions for CMIP5 dataset. We present an updated version of the reference regions for the analysis of new observed and simulated datasets (including CMIP6) which offer an opportunity for refinement due to the higher atmospheric model resolution. As a result, the number of land and ocean regions is increased to 46 and 15, respectively, better representing consistent regional climate features. The paper describes the rationale for the definition of the new regions and analyses their homogeneity. The regions are defined as polygons and are provided as coordinates and a shapefile together with companion R and Python notebooks to illustrate their use in practical problems (e.g. calculating regional averages). We also describe the generation of a new dataset with monthly temperature and precipitation, spatially aggregated in the new regions, currently for CMIP5 and CMIP6, to be extended to other datasets in the future (including observations). The use of these reference regions, dataset and code is illustrated through a worked example using scatter plots to offer guidance on the likely range of future climate change at the scale of the reference regions. The regions, datasets and code (R and Python notebooks) are freely available at the ATLAS GitHub repository: https://github.com/SantanderMetGroup/ATLAS (last access: 24 August 2020), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3998463 (Iturbide et al., 2020).

THE SCIENCE UNDERLYING THE ISSUE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND PROSPECTS FOR ADAPTATION

2001 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 689
Author(s):  
C.D. Mitchell ◽  
G.I. Pearman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Initial Response ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Concentration

The prospect of global-scale changes in climate resulting from changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has produced a complex set of public and private- sector responses. This paper reviews several elements of this issue that are likely to be most important to industry.Scientific research continues to provide evidence to suggest that global climate will change significantly over the coming decades due to increases in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Nonetheless, there exists a debate over the difference between observations of temperature retrieved from satellite and temperature measurements taken from the surface. Recent research undertaken to inform the debate is discussed, with the conclusion that there are real differences in trend between the surface and the lower atmosphere that can be explained in physical terms. Attention is turning to developing an understanding as to why climate model results show apparently consistent trends between the surface and the lower atmosphere, in contrast to these observations.While such uncertainties in the underlying science have been used to question whether action on the greenhouse issues is necessary, the initial response, as evidenced by international negotiations, has been to start mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation to future climate change has received less attention than mitigation. A number of reasons for this are discussed, including the fact that regional scenarios of climate change are uncertain.The principles of risk management may be one way to manage the uncertainties associated with projections of regional climate change. Although the application of risk management to the potential impacts of climate change requires further investigation, elements of such a framework are identified, and include:Identifying the critical climate-related thresholds that are important to industry and its operations (for example, a 1-in-100 year return tropical cyclone).Using this understanding to analyse, and where possible quantify, industry’s pre-existing or baseline adaptive state through the use of sensitivity surfaces and quantified thresholds (for example, were facilities designed for a 1-in-100 event or a 1-in-500 year event?)Establishing probabilistic statements or scenarios of climate that are relevant to industry practice (for example, risk of a storm surge may be more important to operations than elevated wind strength; if so, what is the probability that an event will exceed the design threshold during the lifetime of the facility?).Bringing information on existing adaptive mechanisms together with climate scenarios to produce a quantitative risk assessment.Deciding on risk treatment (additional adaptive measures).

scholarly journals A novel method for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (10) ◽  
pp. 1709-1727
Author(s):  
Inne Vanderkelen ◽  
Jakob Zscheischler ◽  
Lukas Gudmundsson ◽  
Klaus Keuler ◽  
Francois Rineau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Responses ◽  
Model Projection ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract Ecotron facilities allow accurate control of many environmental variables coupled with extensive monitoring of ecosystem processes. They therefore require multivariate perturbation of climate variables, close to what is observed in the field and projections for the future. Here, we present a new method for creating realistic climate forcing for manipulation experiments and apply it to the UHasselt Ecotron experiment. The new methodology uses data derived from the best available regional climate model projection and consists of generating climate forcing along a gradient representative of increasingly high global mean air temperature anomalies. We first identified the best-performing regional climate model simulation for the ecotron site from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in the European domain (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble based on two criteria: (i) highest skill compared to observations from a nearby weather station and (ii) representativeness of the multi-model mean in future projections. The time window is subsequently selected from the model projection for each ecotron unit based on the global mean air temperature of the driving global climate model. The ecotron units are forced with 3-hourly output from the projections of the 5-year period in which the global mean air temperature crosses the predefined values. With the new approach, Ecotron facilities become able to assess ecosystem responses on changing climatic conditions, while accounting for the co-variation between climatic variables and their projection in variability, well representing possible compound events. The presented methodology can also be applied to other manipulation experiments, aiming at investigating ecosystem responses to realistic future climate change.

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