Past, Present and Future Sea Levels in Singapore 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Shaw ◽  
Stephen Chua ◽  
Jedrzej Majewski ◽  
Li Tanghua ◽  
Dhrubajyoti Samanta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Tide Gauge Data ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Vertical Land Motion ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
Probabilistic Projections

<p>Singapore is a small (728 km<sup>2</sup>) island nation that is vulnerable to rising sea levels with 30% of its land surface area less than 5 m above present sea level. Rising relative sea level (RSL), however, is not uniform with regional RSL changes differing from the global mean due to processes associated with vertical land motion (e.g., glacial-isostatic adjustment) and atmospheric and ocean dynamics. Understanding magnitudes, rates, and driving processes on past and present-day sea level are therefore important to provide greater confidence in accurately quantifying future sea-level rise projections and their uncertainty. Here, we present a synopsis of Singapore’s past and present RSL history using newly developed proxy RSL reconstructions from mangrove peats, coral microatolls and tide gauge data and conclude with probabilistic projections of future RSL change.</p><p>Past RSL is characterized by rapid rise during the early Holocene driven primarily by deglaciation of northern hemisphere ice sheets. Sea-level index points (SLIPs) from mangrove peats show sea levels rose rapidly from -20.7 m at 9.5 ka BP to -0.6 m at 7 ka BP at rates of 6-12 mm/yr. This is substantially greater than predicted magnitudes of RSL change from the ICE-6G_C GIA model which shows RSL increasing from -6.4 m at 9.5 ka BP to a ~2.8 m highstand at ~7 ka BP. SLIPs show the mid-Holocene highstand of ~4 ± 3.6 m at 5.2 ka BP before falling towards present at rates up to -2 mm/yr driven by hydro-isostatic processes. The nature of RSL changes during the mid- to late-Holocene transition remains poorly resolved with evidence of sea levels falling below present level to -2.2 ± 2.0 m at 1.2 ka BP. Present RSL reconstructions from coral microatolls coupled with tide-gauge data extend the limited instrumental period in this region beyond ~50 years. They show RSL rose ~0.03 m from 1915 to 1990 at 0.7 ± 1.4 mm/yr before increasing to 1.5 ± 2.1 mm/yr after 1990 to 2019. Future RSL change from probabilistic projections to 2100 under low (RCP 2.6) and high (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios show sea levels rising 0.43 m (50<sup>th</sup> percentile) (0.06 – 0.96 m; 95% credible interval) and 0.74 m (0.28 – 1.4 m), respectively. However, projected magnitudes of sea-level rise driven by rapid ice sheet dynamics and the unknown contribution of atmospheric and ocean dynamics in Southeast Asia have the potential to exacerbate projection magnitudes.</p>

scholarly journals Measuring rates of present-day relative sea-level rise in low-elevation coastal zones: A critical evaluation

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Molly E. Keogh ◽  
Torbjörn E. Törnqvist
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Tide Gauges ◽  
Coastal Zones ◽  
Tide Gauge Data ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
Coastal Louisiana

Abstract. Although tide gauges are the primary source of data used to calculate multi-decadal to century-scale rates of relative sea-level change, we question the reliability of tide-gauge data in rapidly subsiding low-elevation coastal zones (LECZs). Tide gauges measure relative sea-level rise (RSLR) with respect to the base of associated benchmarks. Focusing on coastal Louisiana, the largest LECZ in the United States, we find that these benchmarks (n = 35) are anchored an average of 21.5 m below the land surface. Because at least 60 % of subsidence occurs in the top 5–10 m of the sediment column in this area, tide gauges in coastal Louisiana do not capture the primary contributor to RSLR. Similarly, GPS stations (n = 10) are anchored an average of > 14.3 m below the land surface and therefore also do not capture shallow subsidence. As a result, tide gauges and GPS stations in coastal Louisiana, and likely in LECZs worldwide, systematically underestimate rates of RSLR as experienced at the land surface. We present an alternative approach that explicitly measures RSLR in LECZs with respect to the land surface and eliminates the need for tide-gauge data. Shallow subsidence is measured by rod surface-elevation table‒marker horizons (RSET-MHs) and added to measurements of deep subsidence from GPS data, plus sea-level rise from satellite altimetry. We show that for a LECZ the size of coastal Louisiana (25,000–30,000 km2), about 40 RSET-MH instruments suffice to collect useful data. Rates of RSLR obtained from this approach are substantially higher than rates as inferred from tide-gauge data. We therefore conclude that LECZs may be at higher risk of flooding, and within a shorter time horizon, than previously assumed.

scholarly journals Measuring rates of present-day relative sea-level rise in low-elevation coastal zones: a critical evaluation

Ocean Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Molly E. Keogh ◽  
Torbjörn E. Törnqvist
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Tide Gauges ◽  
Coastal Zones ◽  
Tide Gauge Data ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
Coastal Louisiana

Abstract. Although tide gauges are the primary source of data used to calculate multi-decadal- to century-scale rates of relative sea-level change, we question the usefulness of tide-gauge data in rapidly subsiding low-elevation coastal zones (LECZs). Tide gauges measure relative sea-level rise (RSLR) with respect to the base of associated benchmarks. Focusing on coastal Louisiana, the largest LECZ in the United States, we find that these benchmarks (n=35) are anchored an average of 21.5 m below the land surface. Because at least 60 % of subsidence occurs in the top 5 m of the sediment column in this area, tide gauges in coastal Louisiana do not capture the primary contributor to RSLR. Similarly, global navigation satellite system (GNSS) stations (n=10) are anchored an average of > 14.3 m below the land surface and therefore also do not capture shallow subsidence. As a result, tide gauges and GNSS stations in coastal Louisiana, and likely in LECZs worldwide, systematically underestimate rates of RSLR as experienced at the land surface. We present an alternative approach that explicitly measures RSLR in LECZs with respect to the land surface and eliminates the need for tide-gauge data in this context. Shallow subsidence is measured by rod surface-elevation table–marker horizons (RSET-MHs) and added to measurements of deep subsidence from GNSS data, plus sea-level rise from satellite altimetry. We show that for an LECZ the size of coastal Louisiana (25 000–30 000 km2), about 40 RSET-MH instruments suffice to collect useful data. Rates of RSLR obtained from this approach are substantially higher than rates as inferred from tide-gauge data. We therefore conclude that LECZs may be at higher risk of flooding within a shorter time horizon than previously assumed.

scholarly journals Complex Extreme Sea Levels Prediction Analysis: Karachi Coast Case Study

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 549
Author(s):  
Faisal Ahmed Khan ◽  
Tariq Masood Ali Khan ◽  
Ali Najah Ahmed ◽  
Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan ◽  
Mohsen Sherif ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Probability Method ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Tide Gauge Data ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
Pakistan Coast

In this study, the analysis of the extreme sea level was carried out by using 10 years (2007–2016) of hourly tide gauge data of Karachi port station along the Pakistan coast. Observations revealed that the magnitudes of the tides usually exceeded the storm surges at this station. The main observation for this duration and the subsequent analysis showed that in June 2007 a tropical Cyclone “Yemyin” hit the Pakistan coast. The joint probability method (JPM) and the annual maximum method (AMM) were used for statistical analysis to find out the return periods of different extreme sea levels. According to the achieved results, the AMM and JPM methods erre compatible with each other for the Karachi coast and remained well within the range of 95% confidence. For the JPM method, the highest astronomical tide (HAT) of the Karachi coast was considered as the threshold and the sea levels above it were considered extreme sea levels. The 10 annual observed sea level maxima, in the recent past, showed an increasing trend for extreme sea levels. In the study period, the increment rates of 3.6 mm/year and 2.1 mm/year were observed for mean sea level and extreme sea level, respectively, along the Karachi coast. Tidal analysis, for the Karachi tide gauge data, showed less dependency of the extreme sea levels on the non-tidal residuals. By applying the Merrifield criteria of mean annual maximum water level ratio, it was found that the Karachi coast was tidally dominated and the non-tidal residual contribution was just 10%. The examination of the highest water level event (13 June 2014) during the study period, further favored the tidal dominance as compared to the non-tidal component along the Karachi coast.

scholarly journals Crustal uplift and sea level rise in northern Cascadia from GPS, absolute gravity, and tide gauge data

2007 ◽  
Vol 34 (15) ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Mazzotti ◽  
A. Lambert ◽  
N. Courtier ◽  
L. Nykolaishen ◽  
H. Dragert
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Absolute Gravity ◽  
Tide Gauge Data ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
Crustal Uplift ◽  
And Sea Level

scholarly journals Sea Level Fusion of Satellite Altimetry and Tide Gauge Data by Deep Learning in the Mediterranean Sea

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 908
Author(s):  
Lianjun Yang ◽  
Taoyong Jin ◽  
Xianwen Gao ◽  
Hanjiang Wen ◽  
Tilo Schöne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
The Other ◽  
Tide Gauge Data ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Sea Level Anomalies ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
The Mediterranean

Satellite altimetry and tide gauges are the two main techniques used to measure sea level. Due to the limitations of satellite altimetry, a high-quality unified sea level model from coast to open ocean has traditionally been difficult to achieve. This study proposes a fusion approach of altimetry and tide gauge data based on a deep belief network (DBN) method. Taking the Mediterranean Sea as the case study area, a progressive three-step experiment was designed to compare the fused sea level anomalies from the DBN method with those from the inverse distance weighted (IDW) method, the kriging (KRG) method and the curvature continuous splines in tension (CCS) method for different cases. The results show that the fusion precision varies with the methods and the input measurements. The precision of the DBN method is better than that of the other three methods in most schemes and is reduced by approximately 20% when the limited altimetry along-track data and in-situ tide gauge data are used. In addition, the distribution of satellite altimetry data and tide gauge data has a large effect on the other three methods but less impact on the DBN model. Furthermore, the sea level anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° generated by the DBN model contain more spatial distribution information than others, which means the DBN can be applied as a more feasible and robust way to fuse these two kinds of sea levels.

scholarly journals An Attempt to Observe Vertical Land Motion along the Norwegian Coast by CryoSat-2 and Tide Gauges

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 744 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martina Idžanović ◽  
Christian Gerlach ◽  
Kristian Breili ◽  
Ole Andersen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Tide Gauges ◽  
Tide Gauge Data ◽  
Norwegian Coast ◽  
Vertical Land Motion ◽  
Gauge Data

Present-day climate-change-related ice-melting induces elastic glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effects, while paleo-GIA effects describe the ongoing viscous response to the melting of late-Pleistocene ice sheets. The unloading initiated an uplift of the crust close to the centers of former ice sheets. Today, vertical land motion (VLM) rates in Fennoscandia reach values up to around 10 mm/year and are dominated by GIA. Uplift signals from GIA can be computed by solving the sea-level equation (SLE), S ˙ = N ˙ − U ˙ . All three quantities can also be determined from geodetic observations: relative sea-level variations ( S ˙ ) are observed by means of tide gauges, while rates of absolute sea-level change ( N ˙ ) can be observed by satellite altimetry; rates of VLM ( U ˙ ) can be determined by GPS (Global Positioning System). Based on the SLE, U ˙ can be derived by combining sea-surface measurements from satellite altimetry and relative sea-level records from tide gauges. In the present study, we have combined 7.5 years of CryoSat-2 satellite altimetry and tide-gauge data to estimate linear VLM rates at 20 tide gauges along the Norwegian coast. Thereby, we made use of monthly averaged tide-gauge data from PSMSL (Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level) and a high-frequency tide-gauge data set with 10-min sampling rate from NMA (Norwegian Mapping Authority). To validate our VLM estimates, we have compared them with the independent semi-empirical land-uplift model NKG2016LU_abs for the Nordic-Baltic region, which is based on GPS, levelling, and geodynamical modeling. Estimated VLM rates from 1 Hz CryoSat-2 and high-frequency tide-gauge data reflect well the amplitude of coastal VLM as provided by NKG2016LU_abs. We find a coastal average of 2.4 mm/year (average over all tide gauges), while NKG2016LU_abs suggests 2.8 mm/year; the spatial correlation is 0.58.

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