scholarly journals Complex Extreme Sea Levels Prediction Analysis: Karachi Coast Case Study

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 549
Author(s):  
Faisal Ahmed Khan ◽  
Tariq Masood Ali Khan ◽  
Ali Najah Ahmed ◽  
Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan ◽  
Mohsen Sherif ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Probability Method ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Tide Gauge Data ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
Pakistan Coast

In this study, the analysis of the extreme sea level was carried out by using 10 years (2007–2016) of hourly tide gauge data of Karachi port station along the Pakistan coast. Observations revealed that the magnitudes of the tides usually exceeded the storm surges at this station. The main observation for this duration and the subsequent analysis showed that in June 2007 a tropical Cyclone “Yemyin” hit the Pakistan coast. The joint probability method (JPM) and the annual maximum method (AMM) were used for statistical analysis to find out the return periods of different extreme sea levels. According to the achieved results, the AMM and JPM methods erre compatible with each other for the Karachi coast and remained well within the range of 95% confidence. For the JPM method, the highest astronomical tide (HAT) of the Karachi coast was considered as the threshold and the sea levels above it were considered extreme sea levels. The 10 annual observed sea level maxima, in the recent past, showed an increasing trend for extreme sea levels. In the study period, the increment rates of 3.6 mm/year and 2.1 mm/year were observed for mean sea level and extreme sea level, respectively, along the Karachi coast. Tidal analysis, for the Karachi tide gauge data, showed less dependency of the extreme sea levels on the non-tidal residuals. By applying the Merrifield criteria of mean annual maximum water level ratio, it was found that the Karachi coast was tidally dominated and the non-tidal residual contribution was just 10%. The examination of the highest water level event (13 June 2014) during the study period, further favored the tidal dominance as compared to the non-tidal component along the Karachi coast.

scholarly journals Sea Level Fusion of Satellite Altimetry and Tide Gauge Data by Deep Learning in the Mediterranean Sea

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 908
Author(s):  
Lianjun Yang ◽  
Taoyong Jin ◽  
Xianwen Gao ◽  
Hanjiang Wen ◽  
Tilo Schöne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
The Other ◽  
Tide Gauge Data ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Sea Level Anomalies ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
The Mediterranean

Satellite altimetry and tide gauges are the two main techniques used to measure sea level. Due to the limitations of satellite altimetry, a high-quality unified sea level model from coast to open ocean has traditionally been difficult to achieve. This study proposes a fusion approach of altimetry and tide gauge data based on a deep belief network (DBN) method. Taking the Mediterranean Sea as the case study area, a progressive three-step experiment was designed to compare the fused sea level anomalies from the DBN method with those from the inverse distance weighted (IDW) method, the kriging (KRG) method and the curvature continuous splines in tension (CCS) method for different cases. The results show that the fusion precision varies with the methods and the input measurements. The precision of the DBN method is better than that of the other three methods in most schemes and is reduced by approximately 20% when the limited altimetry along-track data and in-situ tide gauge data are used. In addition, the distribution of satellite altimetry data and tide gauge data has a large effect on the other three methods but less impact on the DBN model. Furthermore, the sea level anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° generated by the DBN model contain more spatial distribution information than others, which means the DBN can be applied as a more feasible and robust way to fuse these two kinds of sea levels.

Past, Present and Future Sea Levels in Singapore 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Shaw ◽  
Stephen Chua ◽  
Jedrzej Majewski ◽  
Li Tanghua ◽  
Dhrubajyoti Samanta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Tide Gauge Data ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Vertical Land Motion ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
Probabilistic Projections

<p>Singapore is a small (728 km<sup>2</sup>) island nation that is vulnerable to rising sea levels with 30% of its land surface area less than 5 m above present sea level. Rising relative sea level (RSL), however, is not uniform with regional RSL changes differing from the global mean due to processes associated with vertical land motion (e.g., glacial-isostatic adjustment) and atmospheric and ocean dynamics. Understanding magnitudes, rates, and driving processes on past and present-day sea level are therefore important to provide greater confidence in accurately quantifying future sea-level rise projections and their uncertainty. Here, we present a synopsis of Singapore’s past and present RSL history using newly developed proxy RSL reconstructions from mangrove peats, coral microatolls and tide gauge data and conclude with probabilistic projections of future RSL change.</p><p>Past RSL is characterized by rapid rise during the early Holocene driven primarily by deglaciation of northern hemisphere ice sheets. Sea-level index points (SLIPs) from mangrove peats show sea levels rose rapidly from -20.7 m at 9.5 ka BP to -0.6 m at 7 ka BP at rates of 6-12 mm/yr. This is substantially greater than predicted magnitudes of RSL change from the ICE-6G_C GIA model which shows RSL increasing from -6.4 m at 9.5 ka BP to a ~2.8 m highstand at ~7 ka BP. SLIPs show the mid-Holocene highstand of ~4 ± 3.6 m at 5.2 ka BP before falling towards present at rates up to -2 mm/yr driven by hydro-isostatic processes. The nature of RSL changes during the mid- to late-Holocene transition remains poorly resolved with evidence of sea levels falling below present level to -2.2 ± 2.0 m at 1.2 ka BP. Present RSL reconstructions from coral microatolls coupled with tide-gauge data extend the limited instrumental period in this region beyond ~50 years. They show RSL rose ~0.03 m from 1915 to 1990 at 0.7 ± 1.4 mm/yr before increasing to 1.5 ± 2.1 mm/yr after 1990 to 2019. Future RSL change from probabilistic projections to 2100 under low (RCP 2.6) and high (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios show sea levels rising 0.43 m (50<sup>th</sup> percentile) (0.06 – 0.96 m; 95% credible interval) and 0.74 m (0.28 – 1.4 m), respectively. However, projected magnitudes of sea-level rise driven by rapid ice sheet dynamics and the unknown contribution of atmospheric and ocean dynamics in Southeast Asia have the potential to exacerbate projection magnitudes.</p>

Estimating contribution of high-frequency sea-level oscillations to the extreme sea levels in the Adriatic Sea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krešimir Ruić ◽  
Jadranka Šepić ◽  
Maja Karlović ◽  
Iva Međugorac
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Adriatic Sea ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels ◽  
Sea Level Oscillations

<p>Extreme sea levels are known to hit the Adriatic Sea and to occasionally cause floods that produce severe material damage. Whereas the contribution of longer-period (T > 2 h) sea-level oscillations to the phenomena has been well researched, the contribution of the shorter period (T < 2 h) oscillations is yet to be determined. With this aim, data of 1-min sampling resolution were collected for 20 tide gauges, 10 located at the Italian (north and west) and 10 at the Croatian (east) Adriatic coast. Analyses were done on time series of 3 to 15 years length, with the latest data coming from 2020, and with longer data series available for the Croatian coast. Sea level data were thoroughly checked, and spurious data were removed. </p><p>For each station, extreme sea levels were defined as events during which sea level surpasses its 99.9 percentile value. The contribution of short-period oscillations to extremes was then estimated from corresponding high-frequency (T < 2 h) series. Additionally, for four Croatian tide gauge stations (Rovinj, Bakar, Split, and Dubrovnik), for period of 1956-2004, extreme sea levels were also determined from the hourly sea level time series, with the contribution of short-period oscillations visually estimated from the original tide gauge charts.  </p><p>Spatial and temporal distribution of contribution of short-period sea-level oscillations to the extreme sea level in the Adriatic were estimated. It was shown that short-period sea-level oscillation can significantly contribute to the overall extremes and should be considered when estimating flooding levels. </p>

The northern and the eastern Adriatic Sea floods: connecting the extreme sea-levels to cyclone pathways 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tihana Dević ◽  
Jadranka Šepić ◽  
Darko Koračin
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Origin Time ◽  
Northern Adriatic ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
North West ◽  
Mediterranean Cyclones ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels ◽  
The Moment

<p>An objective method for tracking pathways of cyclone centres over Europe was developed and applied to the ERA-Interim reanalysis atmospheric data (1979-2014). The method was used to determine trajectories of those Mediterranean cyclones which generated extreme sea levels along the northern and the eastern Adriatic coast during the period from 1979 to 2014. Extreme events were defined as periods during which sea level was above 99.95 percentile value of time series of hourly sea-level data measured at the Venice (northern Adriatic), Split (middle eastern Adriatic) and Dubrovnik (south-eastern Adriatic) tide-gauge stations. The cyclone pathways were tracked backwards from the moment closest to the moment of maximum sea level up to the cyclone origin time, or at most, up to 72 hours prior the occurrence of the sea-level maximum.</p><p>Our results point out that extreme sea levels in Venice normally appear during synoptic situations in which a cyclone centre is located to the south-west and north-west of Venice, i.e., when it can be found over the Gulf of Genoa, or the Alps. On the contrary, extreme sea levels in Dubrovnik are usually associates with cyclone centres above the middle Adriatic, whereas floods in Split seem to appear during both above-described types of situations.</p><p>Occurrence times and intensity of cyclones and extreme sea-levels was further associated with the NAO index. It has been shown that the deepest cyclones and corresponding extreme floods tend to occur during the negative NAO phase.   </p>

scholarly journals Atmospheric circulation changes and their impact on extreme sea levels around Australia

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 1067-1086 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Colberg ◽  
Kathleen L. McInnes ◽  
Julian O'Grady ◽  
Ron Hoeke
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Sea Level Variability ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels ◽  
Coastal Sea

Abstract. Projections of sea level rise (SLR) will lead to increasing coastal impacts during extreme sea level events globally; however, there is significant uncertainty around short-term coastal sea level variability and the attendant frequency and severity of extreme sea level events. In this study, we investigate drivers of coastal sea level variability (including extremes) around Australia by means of historical conditions as well as future changes under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). To do this, a multi-decade hindcast simulation is validated against tide gauge data. The role of tide–surge interaction is assessed and found to have negligible effects on storm surge characteristic heights over most of the coastline. For future projections, 20-year-long simulations are carried out over the time periods 1981–1999 and 2081–2099 using atmospheric forcing from four CMIP5 climate models. Changes in extreme sea levels are apparent, but there are large inter-model differences. On the southern mainland coast all models simulated a southward movement of the subtropical ridge which led to a small reduction in sea level extremes in the hydrodynamic simulations. Sea level changes over the Gulf of Carpentaria in the north are largest and positive during austral summer in two out of the four models. In these models, changes to the northwest monsoon appear to be the cause of the sea level response. These simulations highlight a sensitivity of this semi-enclosed gulf to changes in large-scale dynamics in this region and indicate that further assessment of the potential changes to the northwest monsoon in a larger multi-model ensemble should be investigated, together with the northwest monsoon's effect on extreme sea levels.

scholarly journals More confounders at global and decadal scales in detecting recent sea level accelerations

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Bâki Iz
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Almost Periodic ◽  
Altimetry Data ◽  
Tide Gauge Data ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
Close Range ◽  
Globally Distributed ◽  
Satellite Altimetry Data

AbstractThe residuals of 27 globally distributed long tide gauge recordswere scrutinized after removing the globally compounding effect of the periodic lunar node tides and almost periodic solar radiation’s sub and superharmonics from the tide gauge data. The spectral analysis of the residuals revealed additional unmodeled periodicities at decadal scales, 19 of which are within the close range of 12–14 years, at 27 tide gauge stations. The amplitudes of the periodicitieswere subsequently estimated for the spectrally detected periods and they were found to be statistically significant (p «0.05) for 18 out of 27 globally distributed tide gauge stations. It was shown that the estimated amplitudes at different localities may have biased the outcome of all the previous studies based on tide gauge or satellite altimetry data that did not account for these periodicities, within the range −0.5 – 0.5 mm/yr., acting as another confounder in detecting 21st century sea level rise.

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