Evaluation of High-Resolution Atmospheric Transport Modelling within the framework of the CTBT with Xe-133 observations in Germany and stack emission data from medical isotope production

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jolanta Kusmierczyk-Michulec ◽  
Anne Tipka ◽  
Martin Kalinowski
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
International Monitoring System ◽  
Isotope Production ◽  
Emission Data ◽  
Transport Modelling ◽  
Atmospheric Transport Modelling ◽  
Computational Performance ◽  
International Monitoring ◽  
Medical Isotope

<p>For every atmospheric radionuclide sample taken by the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO), the CTBTO makes use of operational Atmospheric Transport Modelling (ATM) to assist States Signatories in localization of possible source regions of any measured substance. Currently, ATM is accomplished by using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) FLEXPART driven by global meteorological fields with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees and 1 hourly temporal resolution. Meteorological fields are provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF ) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).  </p><p>Recent studies to increase the accuracy in the CTBTO’s localization process to be applied for specific detection events, utilizes High-Resolution Atmospheric Transport Modelling (HRATM) by using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to generate high-resolution meteorological input data for the LPDM version Flexpart-WRF.   </p><p>This presentation uses measurements from the International Monitoring System (IMS) station DEX33 in Germany of seven episodes of elevated Xe-133 concentrations in 2014 in combination with with the stack emission data of the medical isotope production facility IRE in Fleurus, Belgium. Each episode consists of 6 to 11 subsequent 24-hour samples. Backward simulations for each sample are conducted and the sensitivity to the stack emission data are analysed. All samples determined to represent a detection of IRE releases are selected to be used for an evaluation study. </p><p>Evaluating the CTBTO’s utilization of HRATM requires to investigate the ability to localize the source region as well as the accuracy of the match and the computational performance to accomplish these results. The evaluation of HRATM results is done by using statistical metrics established during former ATM challenges. Concerning the computational performance and to account for uncertainties, sensitivity studies with varying spatial resolutions, physical parameterization variations and different regional domain setups for WRF were accomplished. This comprises a reference comparison to the operational ATM FLEXPART model with an increased spatial resolution to 0.1 degrees.   </p>

Comparison study for different approaches in applying High-Resolution Atmospheric Transport Modelling based on validation with Xe-133 observations in Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Philipp ◽  
Michael Schoeppner ◽  
Jolanta Kusmierczyk-Michulec ◽  
Pierre Bourgouin ◽  
Martin Kalinowski
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Dispersion Model ◽  
Particle Dispersion ◽  
Comparison Study ◽  
Transport Modelling ◽  
Atmospheric Transport Modelling ◽  
Flexpart Model

<p>The International Data Centre (IDC) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO) investigates the best method to add the utilisation of High-Resolution Atmospheric Transport Modelling (HRATM) in their operational and automatised pipeline. Supporting the decision process, the IDC accomplished a comparison study with different approaches for applying HRATM. An initial validation study with the HRATM Flexpart-WRF, which is a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM), showed a performance which is dependent on the scenario and delivered results comparable to the conventional Flexpart model. The approach uses the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to generate high-resolution meteorological input data for Flexpart-WRF and WRF was driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data having a horizontal resolution of 0.5 degrees and time resolution of 1h. Based on this initial study, an extended study was conducted to compare the results to FLEXPART-WRF using input data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts  (ECMWF) for WRF and to results from the conventional Flexpart model using high-resolution ECMWF input data. Furthermore, a sensitivity study was performed to optimize the physical and computational parameters of WRF to test possible meteorological improvements prior to the comparison study.</p><p>The performance of the different approaches is evaluated by using observational data and includes statistical metrics which were established during the first ATM challenge in 2016. Observational data of seven episodes of elevated Xe-133 concentrations were selected from the IMS (International Monitoring System) noble gas system DEX33 located in Germany. Each episode consists of 6 to 11 subsequent samples with each sample being taken over 24 hours. Both Flexpart models were using the source terms from a medical isotope production facility in Belgium to simulate the resulting concentration time series at the DEX33 station for different output resolutions. Backward simulations for each sample were conducted, and in the case of Flexpart-WRF nested input of increased resolution around the source and receptor was used.</p><p>The simulated concentrations, as well as the measurements, are also compared to the simulated results produced by the conventional Flexpart model to guide the decision-making process.</p>

Anomalous measurements at SEP63 IMS station in June 2020: a preliminary forensic approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Ottaviano ◽  
Antonietta Rizzo ◽  
Chiara Telloli ◽  
Alberto Ubaldini ◽  
Barbara Ferrucci ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Source Term ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Fission Products ◽  
Natural Background ◽  
Transport Modelling ◽  
News Reports ◽  
Atmospheric Transport Modelling ◽  
Activation Products ◽  
International Monitoring ◽  
Test Ban

<div><span>In June 2020, the Swedish station SEP63 of the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) recorded anomalous values of a mixture of some fission products and neutron activation products not present in the natural background of the station itself. Some concentration activity values above the statistical range of the station were measured. An online search for any relevant news reports was carried out and atmospheric transport modelling (ATM) conducted to identify the possible source of the emissions and to assess the related source-term. The aim of this work is to sketch out a preliminary forensic approach to characterize the event.</span></div>

scholarly journals Can we evaluate a fine-grained emission model using high-resolution atmospheric transport modelling and regional fossil fuel CO2 observations?

Tellus B ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 18681 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix R. Vogel ◽  
Balendra Thiruchittampalam ◽  
Jochen Theloke ◽  
Roberto Kretschmer ◽  
Christoph Gerbig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Emission Model ◽  
Transport Modelling ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Atmospheric Transport Modelling

scholarly journals Verification of greenhouse gas emission reductions: the prospect of atmospheric monitoring in polluted areas

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1943) ◽  
pp. 1906-1924 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingeborg Levin ◽  
Samuel Hammer ◽  
Elke Eichelmann ◽  
Felix R. Vogel
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Catchment Area ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Atmospheric Measurements ◽  
Transport Modelling ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Atmospheric Transport Modelling

Independent verification of greenhouse gas emissions reporting is a legal requirement of the Kyoto Protocol, which has not yet been fully accomplished. Here, we show that dedicated long-term atmospheric measurements of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), continuously conducted at polluted sites can provide the necessary tool for this undertaking. From our measurements at the semi-polluted Heidelberg site in the upper Rhine Valley, we find that in the catchment area CH 4 emissions decreased on average by 32±6% from the second half of the 1990s until the first half of the 2000s, but the observed long-term trend of emissions is considerably smaller than that previously reported for southwest Germany. In contrast, regional fossil fuel CO 2 levels, estimated from high-precision 14 CO 2 observations, do not show any significant decreasing trend since 1986, in agreement with the reported emissions for this region. In order to provide accurate verification, these regional measurements would best be accompanied by adequate atmospheric transport modelling as required to precisely determine the relevant catchment area of the measurements. Furthermore, reliable reconciliation of reported emissions will only be possible if these are known at high spatial resolution in the catchment area of the observations. This information should principally be available in all countries that regularly report their greenhouse gas emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Testing the importance of accurate meteorological input fields and parameterizations in atmospheric transport modelling using dream - validation against ETEX-1

1998 ◽  
Vol 32 (24) ◽  
pp. 4167-4186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jørgen Brandt ◽  
Annemarie Bastrup-birk ◽  
Jesper H. Christensen ◽  
Torben Mikkelsen ◽  
Søren Thykier-Nielsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Transport Modelling ◽  
Atmospheric Transport Modelling ◽  
Meteorological Input

Impact of model resolution and transport uncertainties on the representation of CO2 emission plumes by global and regional atmospheric transport models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Brunner ◽  
Jean-Matthieu Haussaire ◽  
Julia Marshall ◽  
Arjo Segers ◽  
Hugo Denier van der Gon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Transport Models ◽  
Transport Modelling ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Total Column

<p>Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) will have to be drastically reduced in the coming decades to reach the goal of the Paris Agreement to limit the global temperature increase to no more than 2°C. To support this process, Europe is planning to establish a CO<sub>2</sub> anthropogenic emission monitoring system, which will assist countries, cities and facility operators in monitoring their emissions and evaluating the progress towards their reduction targets. The system will combine measurements from ground-based networks with observations from a new constellation of CO<sub>2</sub> satellites, which will provide high-resolution images of total column CO<sub>2</sub> allowing tracking the plumes of large emission sources. A suite of atmospheric transport modelling systems will assimilate these observations and inversely estimate emissions from the continental to the country scale and down to the scale of individual cities and power plants.</p><p>In the European project "CO<sub>2</sub> Human Emissions" (CHE), the components of such a modelling framework are explored, which includes the generation of a library of realistic atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> simulations. These "nature runs" are obtained by running global and regional atmospheric transport models at the highest possible resolution affordable today and using state-of-the-art inputs of anthropogenic emissions and natural CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes. The library includes global simulations at 9 km x 9 km resolution with the CAMS-IFS model, European simulations at 5 km x 5 km resolution with WRF-GHG, COSMO-GHG and LOTOS-EUROS, and high-resolution simulations at 1 km x 1 km over the city of Berlin and several power plants with COSMO-GHG and LOTOS-EUROS.</p><p>Here we analyse and compare the model simulations to address the following questions: How realistically are atmospheric gradients in CO<sub>2</sub> caused by spatial and temporal variations in biospheric and anthropogenic fluxes and by atmospheric dynamics represented at the different model resolutions? What resolution is required to resolve the plumes of individual cities and power plants? How large are the differences in near surface and total column CO<sub>2</sub> due to uncertainties in atmospheric transport including uncertainties in vertical mixing? Information on transport uncertainties is derived from an ensemble of CAMS-IFS simulations and from the spread between the individual models.</p><p>Answering these questions is critical for the design of a future operational capacity to monitor anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, which should optimally support decision makers at facility, city, and country scale as well as the global stocktake process of the Paris Agreement.</p>

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