Major weather-related risks to crop performance along the Australian wheat belt for recent past and longer-term historical weather records

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gennady Bracho Mujica ◽  
Peter Hayman ◽  
Victor Sadras ◽  
Bertram Ostendorf ◽  
Nicole Ferreira C. R. ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Grain Yield ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Crop Failure ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Australian Wheat ◽  
Historical Past

<p>Extreme events, such as drought, heat and/or frost are among the major weather-related causes of yield reduction and crop failure worldwide. Changes in the frequency and intensity of such weather extremes affect the shape and scale of yield distributions. Wheat growers, in Australia, are particularly vulnerable to climate due to its high variability. Risks of both, extremely high or low temperatures and water stress occurring simultaneously or at different crop stages within the growing season (May-October, e.g. frost mid-season, drought during the season and heat towards the end) often lead to yield reductions, or sometimes even to crop failure. In this study, we focused on assessing the frequency and impact of these relevant extreme weather events (i.e. drought, heat and frost) affecting wheat production in Australia. Specifically, we used a widely used and calibrated crop model (APSIM) to simulate wheat grain yield, and determine probability density functions (PDFs) of grain yield and crop failure. Chances of crop failure due to these extreme events are explored for the recent past (1991-2020) and the longer-term historical past (1901-1990). Key adaption strategies to minimise the impacts of these extreme events, and reduce crop failure risk are assessed in this study, including early sowing and cultivar choice. Our findings are in line with recent studies, indicating that drought and heat are major risk factors contributing to reduced yields or crop failure. However, due to the timing, frequency and impacts of frost events on wheat productivity, frost also remains a relevant risk for the wheat industry in Australia.</p>

scholarly journals Extreme Weather Events and Its Impacts on Rice Production in Coastal Odisha Region of India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S Vijayakumar ◽  
A.K. Nayak ◽  
N. Manikandan ◽  
Suchismita Pattanaik ◽  
Rahul Tripathi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Grain Yield ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Significant Trend ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Rice Grain ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract The study investigates trend in extreme daily precipitation and temperature over coastal Odisha, India. 18 weather indices (8 related to temperature and 10 related to rainfall) were calculated using RClimDex software package for the period 1980–2010 . Trend analysis was carried out using linear regression and non-parametric Mann-Kendall test to find out the statistical significance of various indices. Results indicated, a strong and significant trend in temperature indices while the weak and non-significant trend in precipitation indices. The positive trend in Tmax mean, Tmin mean, TN90p (warm nights), TX90p (warm days), diurnal temperature range (DTR), warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), consecutive dry days (CDD) indicates increasing the frequency of warming events in coastal Odisha. Similarly, positive trend in highest maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1), highest maximum 2 consecutive day precipitation (RX2), highest maximum 3 consecutive day precipitation (RX3), highest maximum 5 consecutive day precipitation (RX5), number of heavy precipitation days (≥64.5mm), number of very heavy precipitation days (≥124.5mm) and negative trend in the number of rainy days (R2.5mm), consecutive wet days (CWD) indicate changes toward the more intense and poor distribution of precipitation in coastal Odisha. The combined effect of precipitation and temperature extreme events showed negative effects on rice grain yield. With the increasing number of extreme events there was sharp decline in rice grain yield was observed in the same year in all the coastal districts. This study emphasizes the need for new technology/management practice to minimize the impacts of extreme weather events on rice yield.

scholarly journals From Atmospheric Waves to Heatwaves: A Waveguide Perspective for Understanding and Predicting Concurrent, Persistent and Extreme Extratropical Weather

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-35
Author(s):  
Rachel H. White ◽  
Kai Kornhuber ◽  
Olivia Martius ◽  
Volkmar Wirth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Surface Weather ◽  
The Impact

AbstractA notable number of high impact weather extremes have occurred in recent years, often associated with persistent, strongly meandering atmospheric circulation patterns known as Rossby waves. Because of the high societal and ecosystem impacts, it is of great interest to be able to accurately project how such extreme events will change with climate change, and to predict these events on seasonal to subseasonal (S2S) timescales. There are multiple physical links connecting upper atmosphere circulation patterns to surface weather extremes, and it is asking a lot of our dynamical models to accurately simulate all of these. Subsequently, our confidence in future projections and S2S forecasts of extreme events connected to Rossby waves remains relatively low. We also lack full fundamental theories for the growth and propagation of Rossby waves on the spatial and temporal scales relevant to extreme events, particularly under strongly non-linear conditions. By focussing on one of the first links in the chain from upper atmospheric conditions to surface extremes -- the Rossby waveguide -- it may be possible to circumvent some model biases in later links. To further our understanding of the nature of waveguides, links to persistent surface weather events and their representation in models, we recommend: exploring these links in model hierarchies of increasing complexity, developing fundamental theory, exploiting novel large ensemble data sets, harnessing deep learning, and increased community collaboration. This would help increase understanding and confidence in both S2S predictions of extremes and of projections of the impact of climate change on extreme weather events.

scholarly journals Mapping Vulnerability to Weather Extremes: Heat and Flood Assessment Approaches

2021 ◽  
pp. 47-66
Author(s):  
Zoé A. Hamstead ◽  
Jason Sauer
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Values ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Landscape Patterns ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Structural Inequality ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Mapping Vulnerability ◽  
Extreme Flooding

AbstractAssessing present social and biophysical conditions of communities that are at risk of injury due to extreme weather events is an important component of creating future visions of resilience. Spatial patterns of vulnerability to extreme events are manifestations of structural injustice that leave their mark on the built environment and in socio-spatial segregation patterns. Socio-spatial inequity often arises from development practices that favor particular racial and ethnic social groups over others. These segregation patterns are aligned with patterns of exposure to pollution, extreme weather events, and other types of environmental hazards. Spatial vulnerability assessments can be powerful tools for prioritizing where and how cities should make investments for mitigating the impacts of extreme events, and can provide an entry point for asking more fundamental questions about the processes that produce patterns of climate inequity, as well as how to avoid reproducing such processes in the future. Maps express uneven distributions of risk and manifestations of structural inequality in social–ecological–technological systems (SETS). They enable communities to visualize distributional injustice, consider ways in distributions that may be misaligned with cultural values, and develop adaptive practices toward climate justice. Here, we demonstrate approaches for assessing vulnerability to extreme flooding and heat, and show how vulnerability distributions are embedded in landscape patterns that produce uneven risk.

scholarly journals Impacts of compound extreme weather events on ozone in the present and future

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junxi Zhang ◽  
Yang Gao ◽  
Kun Luo ◽  
L. Ruby Leung ◽  
Yang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Low Wind Speed ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Future ◽  
Compound Events ◽  
Ozone Episodes

Abstract. The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) was used to study the effect of extreme weather events on ozone in US for historical (2001–2010) and future (2046–2055) periods under RCP8.5 scenario. During extreme weather events, including heat waves, atmospheric stagnation, and their compound events, ozone concentration is much higher compared to non-extreme events period. A striking enhancement of effect during compound events is revealed when heat wave and stagnation occur simultaneously and both high temperature and low wind speed promote the production of high ozone concentrations. In regions with high emissions, compound extreme events can shift the high-end tails of the probability density functions (PDFs) of ozone to even higher values to generate extreme ozone episodes. In regions with low emissions, extreme events can still increase high ozone frequency but the high-end tails of the PDFs are constrained by the low emissions. Despite large anthropogenic emission reduction projected for the future, compound events increase ozone more than the single events by 10 % to 13 %, comparable to the present, and high ozone episodes are not eliminated. Using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, the frequency of compound events is found to increase more dominantly compared to the increased frequency of single events in the future over the US, Europe, and China. High ozone episodes will likely continue in the future due to increases in both frequency and intensity of extreme events, despite reductions in anthropogenic emissions of its precursors. However, the latter could reduce or eliminate extreme ozone episodes, so improving projections of compound events and their impacts on extreme ozone may better constrain future projections of extreme ozone episodes that have detrimental effects on human health.

Effect of climate extremes on the grain yield and quality of cereals

2010 ◽  
Vol 58 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 115-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Bencze ◽  
K. Balla ◽  
B. Varga ◽  
O. Veisz
Keyword(s):  
Grain Yield ◽  
Grain Quality ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Yield Potential ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Long Term Experiment ◽  
Yield Quality ◽  
Grain Yield And Quality

A long-term experiment was started in 2005 in the Agricultural Research Institute to monitor the effects of extreme climatic events on the grain yield, quality and disease resistance of cereals. The yield was poor in 2007 due to the long dry period from autumn till spring, while it was high in 2006 and 2008 when there was more precipitation. The grain quality was the highest in 2007, however, despite the extreme weather events. Fungicide treatment generally resulted in higher yield potential and better grain quality in every year.

scholarly journals Assessing the impacts of extreme weather events on potable water quality: the value to managers of a highly participatory, integrated modelling approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-24
Author(s):  
Edoardo Bertone ◽  
Oz Sahin ◽  
Russell Richards ◽  
Anne Roiko
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Drinking Water Treatment ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Integrated Modelling ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Sd Model

Abstract A decision support tool was created to estimate the treatment efficiency of an Australian drinking water treatment system based on different combinations of extreme weather events and long-term changes. To deal with uncertainties, missing data, and nonlinear behaviours, a Bayesian network (BN) was coupled with a system dynamics (SD) model. The preliminary conceptual structures of these models were developed through stakeholders' consultation. The BN model could rank extreme events, and combinations of them, based on the severity of their impact on health-related water quality. The SD model, in turn, was used to run a long-term estimation of extreme events' impacts by including temporal factors such as increased water demand and customer feedback. The integration of the two models was performed through a combined Monte Carlo–fuzzy logic approach which allowed to take the BN's outputs as inputs for the SD model. The final product is a participatory, multidisciplinary decision support system allowing for robust, sustainable long-term water resources management under uncertain conditions for a specific location.

Leaf modification delays panicle initiation and anthesis in grain sorghum

2001 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 127 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. E. Ockerby ◽  
D. J. Midmore ◽  
D. F. Yule
Keyword(s):  
Grain Yield ◽  
Leaf Area ◽  
Reproductive Development ◽  
Grain Sorghum ◽  
Yield Potential ◽  
Green Leaf ◽  
Sufficient Evidence ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Crop Failure ◽  
Green Leaf Area

Water stress at anthesis is the major cause of yield reduction or crop failure in grain sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] in central Queensland. Rainfall is difficult to predict and it is impractical to substantially alter the timing and amount of water stored in the soil, so we focussed on whether crop ontogeny could be managed, ultimately giving farmers some capability to align anthesis with in-crop rain. It is widely considered that a signal, transported from the leaf to the shoot apical meristem, is integral to the onset of panicle initiation and reproductive development. We hypothesised that modifying the leaves may interrupt the signal and cause a delay in the onset of reproductive development. Delays in sorghum anthesis associated with leaf modification treatments applied before panicle initiation were found to be a consequence of delays in panicle initiation. The longest delays in panicle initiation were obtained by twice-weekly defoliation above the second ligule (15–45 days); delays were shorter when plants were defoliated above the third ligule (10–41 days) or when only the fully exposed leaves were removed (0–13 days), depending on genotype. Although panicle initiation was delayed, leaf initiation continued, so extra leaves were produced. Defoliation of fully irrigated plants, however, generally reduced green leaf area, plant dry weight at anthesis, and grain yield, all by 30–50%. The application of ethephon also delayed anthesis, and changed the pattern but not the area of leaf produced, and did not alter grain yield. In rain-fed agriculture, where grain yields are frequently <50% of irrigated controls, delaying panicle initiation by 2 weeks may provide a better rainfall environment during which anthesis and grain-filling will occur. Reductions in green leaf area, although reducing yield potential, may promote a more balanced use of water between vegetative and grain growth. There was sufficient evidence to indicate that defoliation before panicle initiation could provide simple post-sowing management to achieve this scenario.

scholarly journals Real time implementation of agricultural contingency plans to cope with weather aberrations in Indian agriculture

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 183-194
Author(s):  
CH. SRINIVASA RAO RAO ◽  
G. RAVINDRA CHARY ◽  
N. RANI ◽  
V. S. BAVISKAR
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Horticultural Crops ◽  
Indian Agriculture ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Overall Stability ◽  
Droughts And Floods ◽  
Seasonal Droughts

Weather aberrations impact agriculture and allied sectors in one or other parts of the India round the year. Seasonal droughts and extreme weather events in 21st century have caused alarming losses not only in agricultural production but also horticulture, livestock, poultry and fisheries. ICAR-CRIDA, SAUs and DAC, MoA, GoI, prepared more than 580 district level agriculture plans within formation on contingency measures for sustaining higher agriculture production and to cope with extreme events. Real-time contingency planning (RTCP) is being conceptualized and implemented at micro level in farmers’ fields in this country. RTCP implementation during delayed onset of monsoon, seasonal droughts and floods resulted in better crop performance, higher agricultural production, better incomes and overall stability in house-hold livelihoods. In this paper, the real-contingency measures to cope with extreme events for management of horticultural crops, livestock, poultry and fisheries are proposed. Further, the preparedness for RTCP implementation with policy initiatives is also suggested.

scholarly journals Awareness of climate change's impacts and motivation to adapt are not enough to drive action: A look of Puerto Rican farmers after Hurricane Maria

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0244512
Author(s):  
Luis Alexis Rodríguez-Cruz ◽  
Meredith T. Niles
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Puerto Rican ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Psychological Distance ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events

Understanding how perceptions around motivation, capacity, and climate change’s impacts relate to the adoption of adaptation practices in light of experiences with extreme weather events is important in assessing farmers’ adaptive capacity. However, very little of this work has occurred in islands, which may have different vulnerabilities and capacities for adaptation. Data of surveyed farmers throughout Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria (n = 405, 87% response rate) were used in a structural equation model to explore the extent to which their adoption of agricultural practices and management strategies was driven by perceptions of motivation, vulnerability, and capacity as a function of their psychological distance of climate change. Our results show that half of farmers did not adopt any practice or strategy, even though the majority perceived themselves capable and motivated to adapt to climate change, and understood their farms to be vulnerable to future extreme events. Furthermore, adoption was neither linked to these adaptation perceptions, nor to their psychological distance of climate change, which we found to be both near and far. Puerto Rican farmers’ showed a broad awareness of climate change’s impacts both locally and globally in different dimensions (temporal, spatial, and social), and climate distance was not linked to reported damages from Hurricane Maria or to previous extreme weather events. These results suggest that we may be reaching a tipping point for extreme events as a driver for climate belief and action, especially in places where there is a high level of climate change awareness and continued experience of compounded impacts. Further, high perceived capacity and motivation are not linked to actual adaptation behaviors, suggesting that broadening adaptation analyses beyond individual perceptions and capacities as drivers of climate adaptation may give us a better understanding of the determinants to strengthen farmers’ adaptive capacity.

Extreme Weather and Climate

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Friederike Otto
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Event ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Global Mean

Natural disasters and extreme weather events have been of great societal importance throughout history and often brought everyday life to a catastrophic halt, in a way sometimes comparable to wars and epidemics, only without the lead time. Extreme weather events with large impacts serve as an anchor point of the collective memory of the population in the affected area. Every northern German of the right age remembers the storm surge of 1962 and where they were at the time and has friends or family effected by the event. The “dust bowl” of the 1930s with extensive droughts and heat waves shaped the life of a generation in the United States, and the Sahel droughts in the 1960s and 1970s led to famine and dislocation of population on a massive scale the region arguably never quite recovered from. Hurricane Hyian in 2013 is said to have directly influenced the outcome of the annual Conference of the Parties (COP) United Nation Framework Convention for Climate Change Negotiations in Warsaw, leading to the inclusion of a mechanism to deal with loss and damage from climate-related disasters. Though earthquakes are still fairly unpredictable on short timescales, this is not the case for weather events. Weather forecasts today are so good that we normally know the time and location of the landfall of a hurricane within a 100-mile radius days in advance. Improvements in the prediction of slow-onset events such as droughts (which depend on the rainfall over a large region and whole season) are less striking but have still improved dramatically in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. One of the major reasons for the large increase in the accuracy of weather forecasts is the exponential increase in computing power, which allows scientists to predict and study extreme weather events using complex computer models, simulating possible weather events under certain conditions to understand the statistics of and physical mechanisms behind extreme events. Extreme events are by definition rare and thus impossible to understand from historical records of weather observation alone. Despite the progress on our understanding of and ability to predict extreme weather events, substantial uncertainties remain. Two aspects are of particular importance. Firstly, we know that the climate is changing, having observed almost a one-degree increase in global mean temperature. However, global mean temperature doesn’t kill anyone, extreme weather events do. Their frequency and intensity is changing and will continue to change, but the extent of these changes depends on a host of both global and local factors. Secondly, whether or not a rare weather event leads to extreme impacts depends largely on the vulnerability and exposure of the affected societies. If these are high, even a perfectly forecasted weather event leads to disaster.

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