Location, Area, Curvature and Temporal Trends of Coral Sea Tropical Cyclone Tracks, Over 50 Years

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) with genesis in the Coral Sea, often near the east coast of Australia, present significant hazards to coastal regions in their surroundings. There has, therefore, been significant recent efforts to extract information from records of their historical tracks in order to help predict their future behaviour in the light of a changing climate. In this study, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) database of TC tracks over the last fifty years were grouped based on K-means clustering of the maximum wind-weighted centroids. Track shape variance and track curvature (sinuosity) were assessed. Three well defined clusters of TC tracks were identified, and the results showed predominant directions of TC movement by cluster. Track sinuosity was shown to increase from east to west. Only one cluster showed a statistically significant trend (decreasing) in TC frequency. The concept of TC power dissipation index (PDI) was introduced, revealing that two of the clusters have diverging trends for PDI post 2004. The location of cyclone maximum intensity (LMI) was trended, and only one cluster showed a statistically significant trend (towards the equator) for LMI. All these findings demonstrated a clear variance in risk between the clusters and suggests that this method of cluster analysis is a useful and productive complementary tool when establishing future impacts of TCs - the method identifies divergent TC characteristics and trends at a finer scale (cluster) level which then aids in assigning specific and differing TC risk mitigation strategies to different areas of the Australian east coast.

Sensitivity analysis of WOFOST for yield simulation of cassava over the major growing areas of India

A study was conducted to assess the meteorological sensitivity of the WOFOST crop model in simulating the yield of cassava. The sensitivity was designed by changing the present meteorological data by ±1 to ±5 %. The results has shown the minimum temperature influencing the yield of cassava (variation: 4.94 to -7.65 %) followed by the maximum temperature (yield variation: 6.39 to -6.03 %) and solar radiation (yield variation: -2.41 to 2.07 %). The trends of these meteorological variables have been further analyzed over the major cassava growing regions in India to link its variations with cassava production. A significant trend has been detected during the monsoon season in northeast India, with a decadal change of 0.63ºC. At the same time, a significant trend was detected in the peninsular region during the winter season, with a value of 0.74ºC/decade. The rate of solar dimming in northeast India during the monsoon season was -0.53 hour/decade and during the autumn season, it was -0.25 hour/decade, respectively. The meteorological sensitivity of crop model on its yield and trends may assist the decision-makers in developing appropriate plans mitigations strategies to enhance crop production to ensure food security.

GHGs Emission from the Agricultural Sector within EU-28: A Multivariate Analysis Approach

Climate mitigation and adaptation planning (CMAP) has recently been implemented across the EU-28 to reduce GHG emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O). Thus, the aim of this study was to provide an overview of GHG emissions from the agricultural sector in the EU-28 from 1990 to 2019, and cluster the EU-28 countries regarding their total GHG emissions. The results emphasize the positive impact of CMAP through a negative trend of the total GHG emissions (−2653.01 thousand tons/year, p < 0.05). Despite the positive and not significant trend of the total CO2 emissions, both CH4 and N2O exhibited a negative and significant trend. At the country scale, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands showed the highest reduction in total GHG emissions, by −282.61thousand tons/year (p < 0.05), −266.40 thousand tons/year (p < 0.05), and −262.91 thousand tons/year (p < 0.05), respectively. The output of the multivariate analysis approach indicates changes in the pattern of GHG emissions between 1990 and 2019, where CO2 emissions decreased in the case of Poland and Czechia. The output of this study highlights the positive impact of CMAP, adopted by EU countries, in minimizing GHG emissions. Despite some fluctuations in CO2 emissions, strategies for attaining carbon neutrality in the agricultural sector, across the European Union, should be pursued.

Spatial Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall and Their Perceived Impacts on Ecosystem Services in Mau Forest, Kenya

The Mau Forest Complex is an important ecosystem in Kenya providing many ecosystem services to the local communities. However, its degradation has rendered its ability to deliver its ecosystem services such as climate regulation ineffective. This study's objective was to assess the local climate trend in terms of rainfall and temperature and their perceived impacts on ecosystem services in Mau Forest, from 1984 to 2020. We obtained gridded meteorological data for the study area from the Kenya Meteorological Department and analyzed it using Mann Kendell’s test to identify significant trends in temperature and rainfall. Focus Group Discussions were also carried out to establish the people's perceptions of local climate change and its impacts on ecosystem services. The results of the study indicate no significant trend, p>0.05, in annual rainfall over time. On the other hand, the results show a significant trend, p=3.696e-06, in average annual temperature with approximately 2℃ increase from 1984 to 2020. The local climate change has seen a decline in ecosystem services, mainly water levels and agricultural produce. To cope with and mitigate the effects of climate change, there is need to emphasize establishment of agroforestry woodlots and practice of climate-smart agriculture among the forest adjacent communities.

Extreme Weather Events and Its Impacts on Rice Production in Coastal Odisha Region of India

The study investigates trend in extreme daily precipitation and temperature over coastal Odisha, India. 18 weather indices (8 related to temperature and 10 related to rainfall) were calculated using RClimDex software package for the period 1980–2010 . Trend analysis was carried out using linear regression and non-parametric Mann-Kendall test to find out the statistical significance of various indices. Results indicated, a strong and significant trend in temperature indices while the weak and non-significant trend in precipitation indices. The positive trend in Tmax mean, Tmin mean, TN90p (warm nights), TX90p (warm days), diurnal temperature range (DTR), warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), consecutive dry days (CDD) indicates increasing the frequency of warming events in coastal Odisha. Similarly, positive trend in highest maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1), highest maximum 2 consecutive day precipitation (RX2), highest maximum 3 consecutive day precipitation (RX3), highest maximum 5 consecutive day precipitation (RX5), number of heavy precipitation days (≥64.5mm), number of very heavy precipitation days (≥124.5mm) and negative trend in the number of rainy days (R2.5mm), consecutive wet days (CWD) indicate changes toward the more intense and poor distribution of precipitation in coastal Odisha. The combined effect of precipitation and temperature extreme events showed negative effects on rice grain yield. With the increasing number of extreme events there was sharp decline in rice grain yield was observed in the same year in all the coastal districts. This study emphasizes the need for new technology/management practice to minimize the impacts of extreme weather events on rice yield.

Modeling of the Number of Cold Fronts in Cuba Using the Objective Regressive Regression (ROR) Methodology; Impact of Sunspots

The objective of this work is to model the variable number of cold fronts that affect the Cuban territory in a winter season for a long series of data, to establish if the trend is significant and to see which are the main statistics of the model, to observe the impact of prediction using the number of sunspots with the help of Objective Regressive ROR modeling. In this work, the series of cold fronts per season that affect the Cuban territory was modeled in the years from the 1916-1917 seasons to the 2006-2007 seasons. There are more moderate cold fronts than any other front, on average there are more classic fronts than any other type, on average 19 fronts can be presented per season with a standard deviation of 4.8 Sunspots and they only have a significant linear correlation with sunspots. In moderate fronts, as the stains increase, the number of fronts decreases. The ROR model explains 98% of the variance with an error of 4.2 cases and depends on the fronts returned in 5 seasons, which could coincide with the ENSO event, and also depends on the number of sunspots returned in 12 years. From 1916-1917 approximately the 1952-1953 season, moderate fronts predominated, later from 1953-1954 to the end of the data, weak fronts predominate over the rest with some exceptions throughout history. No significant trend was observed in the model. It is concluded that forecasts of the number of cold fronts can be made with the variable number of sunspots.

Questionnaire-based service evaluation of the efficacy and usefulness of SEREN: a structured education programme for children and young people diagnosed with type 1 diabetes mellitus

ObjectivesTo evaluate the usefulness and effectiveness of a new structured education module for children with type 1 diabetes: Structured Education Reassuring Empowering Nurturing (SEREN) ‘Diabetes at Diagnosis’.DesignRetrospective questionnaire-based service evaluation.Setting12/14 paediatric diabetes centres across Wales took part.ParticipantsChildren diagnosed with type 1 diabetes 1 year before (pre-SEREN group) and 1 year after the introduction of SEREN (post-SEREN group) were selected using a national diabetes register.Resource‘Diabetes at Diagnosis’ delivers structured education to empower children and families with self-management of type 1 diabetes.EvaluationPrimary outcomes were patient-reported effectiveness and user-friendliness of the educational resources and quality of life (PedsQL). Age-appropriate child and parent questionnaires were provided. Clinical outcomes included glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) at 6 and 12 months, service engagement and diabetes-related hospital admissions in the first year.Results89/106 responded pre-SEREN and 108/115 post-SEREN, with no demographic differences at diagnosis. Parent scores for educational package evaluation significantly improved post-SEREN, with a non-significant trend towards improved results in children. PedsQL scores were similar. There was no change in HbA1c overall. Subgroup analyses at 12 months showed a trend towards a lower HbA1c in key stage 1–2 (62 vs 58 mmol/mol, p=0.06) and increased HbA1c in key stage 3–4 (56 vs 66 mmol/mol, p=0.009). There were no differences in hospital admissions or missed clinic appointments.ConclusionsThis is an evaluation of the only standardised type 1 diabetes structured education programme in use for children throughout Wales. This module improved parent-reported outcomes and showed a non-significant trend towards improved usefulness in children, without a difference in a PedsQL scores overall. Ongoing evaluation of the cohort who received subsequent SEREN modules may show the long-term benefit of the programme.

COMPARISON OF EXTRAPERITONEAL AND TRANSPERITONEAL RADICAL CYSTOPROSTATECTOMY IN TERMS OF FIRST 30 DAYS OUTCOMES

Objective: To compare the first 30-day outcomes of Trans-peritoneal and Extra-peritoneal Radical cysto-prostatectomy. Study Design: Quasi-experimental study. Place and Duration of Study: Armed Forces Institute of Urology, Rawalpindi, from Mar 2015 to Mar 2019.Methodology: A total of 100 patients who underwent Radical cystoprostatectomy were observed in two groups either by extra or trans-peritoneal approach. Patients diagnosed with carcinoma urinary bladder (both muscle and non-muscle invasive) vetted through multidisciplinary meeting, with or without neo-adjuvant chemotherapy were included. Patients undergoing salvage cystectomy or any previous open abdomino-pelvic surgery were excluded. The standard techniques were used for both approaches. Variables under study were recorded for first 30-day-followup period. Results: The mean age was 59.9 ± 7.231 years (range=34-80). In extra-peritoneal group the mean duration of surgery was 5.6 ± 1.16 hours comparing to 7.2 ± 1.34 hours in the trans-peritoneal group. Statistically significant trend was also noted in the favour of extra-peritoneal group for stay in Intensive care in post-operative period (3.00 ± 1.19 days/4.77 ± 1.20, p<0.001) as well total stay in the hospital (6.06 ± 2.8 days/ 11.74 ± 4.17, p<0.001). Overall comparison of total number of complications as per Clavien-Dindo system in both groups was insignificant (p=0.136), however a significant trend in favour of extraperitoneal group was noted with respect to major wound dehiscence as well rate of blood transfusion (p<0.001). Conclusion: Extra-peritoneal approach showed a favourable trend in terms of operative time and early recovery after radical cysto-prostatectomy.

Meteorological and Salix species (S. acutifolia, S. smithiana, S. viminalis) phenological trends in central Italy

Plant phenology, through opportune observing and interpreting techniques can be useful to interpret the eventual plant vegetative and reproductive adaptation to climate changes. Some plants of Salix acutifolia Willd., S. smithiana Willd. and S. viminalis L. were considered in a phenological garden in central Italy for analysing their phenological growth stages according to the International gardens network indications during a 10-year period (2008-2017) which allowed us to realize some preliminary trend analyses. The 3 Salix species showed different behaviours in the same cultivation area. S. acutifolia manifested no trend for spring and autumnal phases, S. viminalis presented low significant trends while S. Smithiana was that with the more evident tendencies for all the considered vegetative phases during the study period. The reproductive phase (BBCH 65) showed no significant trend for any Salix species during the study period not being influenced by the different meteorological variables and suggesting that photoperiod in this case may play an important role. The more evident phenological trends were represented for 2 Salix species by the advance of the leaf development during spring and by the progressive delay of the senescence during the last part of the summer, with the fallen leaves phase that was recorded averagely 2 weeks later during the last years of the study period.

Changing structures of summertime heatwaves over China during 19 61–2017

Despite the prevalence of artificial separation of daytime and nighttime hot extremes, they may actually co-occur or occur sequentially. Considering their potential lead-lag configuration, this study identified an entire heatwave period as consecutive days with either daytime or nighttime hot extremes and investigated the changes of the prevalence and sequence of daytime and nighttime hot extremes during heatwaves over China from 1961 to 2017. It was found that the majority (82%) of heatwaves were compound heatwaves that had both daytime and nighttime hot extremes exceeding the 90th percentile-based thresholds, while only 7% (11%) were purely daytime (nighttime) heatwaves that contained only daytime (nighttime) hot extremes. During the entire periods of compound heatwaves, daytime hot extremes usually occurred one day or a few days before nighttime hot extremes, which was in accordance with the daily variations in radiation and meteorological conditions, such as the increasing surface humidity and cloud cover, and decreasing solar radiation during the entire heatwave periods. From 1961 to 2017, compound heatwave numbers exhibited the sharpest increase with a statistically significant trend of 0.44 times decade−1, in contrast to an insignificant trend of 0.00 times decade−1 for purely daytime heatwaves and a significant trend of 0.09 times decade−1 for purely nighttime heatwaves. Within the compound heatwave periods, hot nights were starting earlier and ending later, and numbers of concurrent daytime-nighttime hot extremes increased significantly at 0.20 days decade−1. In particular, urban area were not only subject to increasingly more frequent and longer compound heatwaves, but also to more occurrences of concurrent daytime-nighttime hot extremes with more serious impact. This study provides instructions for researchers to customize and select appropriate heatwave indices.