Overview of terrestrial water storage changes over the Indus River Basin based on GRACE/GRACE-FO solutions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Zhu ◽  
Shiyin Liu ◽  
Ying Yi ◽  
Fuming Xie ◽  
Wenfei Miao
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
Indus River Basin

<p>The Indus River Basin (the Indus) is facing the threat of great water shortages due to rapid population growth, expanding of irrigation area and increasing meltwater from snow and ice under the background of global warming. Being a less gauged basin, the effective usage of water resources in the Indus is always challenged by the high variability of the surface and ground water under a warming climate. This study therefore aimed to characterize and uncover the driving force of changes in water storage in the Indus based on GRACE and GRACE-FO solutions. A series of statistical techniques, such as EOF, modified STL, and Mann-Kenddall test, were applied to quantify and attribute the spatiotemporal patterns of the water storage dynamics. Our results demonstrated that (1) terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) of the basin displayed a deficit and the deficit was largely concentrated in the middle and upper Indus plain (MUIP) during 2002 and 2020. (2) A slight decline in TWSA in the upper Indus basin (UIB) might be attributed to the accelerated melting of glacier and snow cover. (3) The excessive withdrawal of groundwater (1.57 mm/month) dominated the decrease of TWSA over the MUIP although weak increase of precipitation happened in the region. Anthropogenic activities imposed approximately 86.9% impact of the decrease in groundwater and this impact will aggravate for a long time if no effective water management schemes are taken. (4) Influenced by favorable meteorological conditions, the precipitation presented positive trend against the weakness of the India Summer Monsoon and the Westerlies, which exerted the positive influence on TWSA.</p>

scholarly journals A time series assessment of terrestrial water storage and its relationship with hydro-meteorological factors in Gilgit-Baltistan region using GRACE observation and GLDAS-Noah model

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dostdar Hussain ◽  
Aftab Ahmed Khan ◽  
Syed Najam Ul Hassan ◽  
Syed Ali Asad Naqvi ◽  
Akhtar Jamil
Keyword(s):  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Gravity Data ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Satellite Gravity ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
Gilgit Baltistan

AbstractMountains regions like Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) province of Pakistan are solely dependent on seasonal snow and glacier melt. In Indus basin which forms in GB, there is a need to manage water in a sustainable way for the livelihood and economic activities of the downstream population. It is important to monitor water resources that include glaciers, snow-covered area, lakes, etc., besides traditional hydrological (point-based measurements by using the gauging station) and remote sensing-based studies (traditional satellite-based observations provide terrestrial water storage (TWS) change within few centimeters from the earth’s surface); the TWS anomalies (TWSA) for the GB region are not investigated. In this study, the TWSA in GB region is considered for the period of 13 years (from January 2003 to December 2016). Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) level 2 monthly data from three processing centers, namely Centre for Space Research (CSR), German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), and Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), System Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)-driven Noah model, and in situ precipitation data from weather stations, were used for the study investigation. GRACE can help to forecast the possible trends of increasing or decreasing TWS with high accuracy as compared to the past studies, which do not use satellite gravity data. Our results indicate that TWS shows a decreasing trend estimated by GRACE (CSR, GFZ, and JPL) and GLDAS-Noah model, but the trend is not significant statistically. The annual amplitude of GLDAS-Noah is greater than GRACE signal. Mean monthly analysis of TWSA indicates that TWS reaches its maximum in April, while it reaches its minimum in October. Furthermore, Spearman’s rank correlation is determined between GRACE estimated TWS with precipitation, soil moisture (SM) and snow water equivalent (SWE). We also assess the factors, SM and SWE which are the most efficient parameters producing GRACE TWS signal in the study area. In future, our results with the support of more in situ data can be helpful for conservation of natural resources and to manage flood hazards, droughts, and water distribution for the mountain regions.

scholarly journals Analysis of long-term terrestrial water storage variations in the Yangtze River basin

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 1985-2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Huang ◽  
M. S. Salama ◽  
M. S. Krol ◽  
R. van der Velde ◽  
A. Y. Hoekstra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Yangtze River Basin ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
The Yangtze River Basin ◽  
Lower Yangtze ◽  
Gauging Station

Abstract. In this study, we analyze 32 yr of terrestrial water storage (TWS) data obtained from the Interim Reanalysis Data (ERA-Interim) and Noah model from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS-Noah) for the period 1979 to 2010. The accuracy of these datasets is validated using 26 yr (1979–2004) of runoff data from the Yichang gauging station and comparing them with 32 yr of independent precipitation data obtained from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre Full Data Reanalysis Version 6 (GPCC) and NOAA's PRECipitation REConstruction over Land (PREC/L). Spatial and temporal analysis of the TWS data shows that TWS in the Yangtze River basin has decreased significantly since the year 1998. The driest period in the basin occurred between 2005 and 2010, and particularly in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches. The TWS figures changed abruptly to persistently high negative anomalies in the middle and lower Yangtze reaches in 2004. The year 2006 is identified as major inflection point, at which the system starts exhibiting a persistent decrease in TWS. Comparing these TWS trends with independent precipitation datasets shows that the recent decrease in TWS can be attributed mainly to a decrease in the amount of precipitation. Our findings are based on observations and modeling datasets and confirm previous results based on gauging station datasets.

scholarly journals Trend Dynamics of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage in the Nile River Basin

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emad Hasan ◽  
Aondover Tarhule
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Population Density ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Nile River ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
Nile River Basin

GRACE-derived Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies (TWSA) continue to be used in an expanding array of studies to analyze numerous processes and phenomena related to terrestrial water storage dynamics, including groundwater depletions, lake storage variations, snow, and glacial mass changes, as well as floods, droughts, among others. So far, however, few studies have investigated how the factors that affect total water storage (e.g., precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, evapotranspiration) interact and combine over space and time to produce the mass variations that GRACE detects. This paper is an attempt to fill that gap and stimulate needed research in this area. Using the Nile River Basin as case study, it explicitly analyzes nine hydroclimatic and anthropogenic processes, as well as their relationship to TWS in different climatic zones in the Nile River Basin. The analytic method employed the trends in both the dependent and independent variables applying two geographically multiple regression (GMR) approaches: (i) an unweighted or ordinary least square regression (OLS) model in which the contributions of all variables to TWS variability are deemed equal at all locations; and (ii) a geographically weighted regression (GWR) which assigns a weight to each variable at different locations based on the occurrence of trend clusters, determined by Moran’s cluster index. In both cases, model efficacy was investigated using standard goodness of fit diagnostics. The OLS showed that trends in five variables (i.e., precipitation, runoff, surface water soil moisture, and population density) significantly (p<0.0001) explain the trends in TWSA for the basin at large. However, the models R2 value is only 0.14. In contrast, the GWR produced R2 values ranging between 0.40 and 0.89, with an average of 0.86 and normally distributed standard residuals. The models retained in the GWR differ by climatic zone. The results showed that all nine variables contribute significantly to the trend in TWS in the Tropical region; population density is an important contributor to TWSA variability in all zones; ET and Population density are the only significant variables in the semiarid zone. This type of information is critical for developing robust statistical models for reconstructing time series of proxy GRACE anomalies that predate the launch of the GRACE mission and for gap-filling between GRACE and GRACE-FO.

scholarly journals Data assimilation of GRACE terrestrial water storage estimates into a regional hydrological model of the Rhine River basin

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 2079-2100 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Tangdamrongsub ◽  
S. C. Steele-Dunne ◽  
B. C. Gunter ◽  
P. G. Ditmar ◽  
A. H. Weerts
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Rhine River ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Grace Data ◽  
Terrestrial Water

Abstract. The ability to estimate terrestrial water storage (TWS) realistically is essential for understanding past hydrological events and predicting future changes in the hydrological cycle. Inadequacies in model physics, uncertainty in model land parameters, and uncertainties in meteorological data commonly limit the accuracy of hydrological models in simulating TWS. In an effort to improve model performance, this study investigated the benefits of assimilating TWS estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data into the OpenStreams wflow_hbv model using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach. The study area chosen was the Rhine River basin, which has both well-calibrated model parameters and high-quality forcing data that were used for experimentation and comparison. Four different case studies were examined which were designed to evaluate different levels of forcing data quality and resolution including those typical of other less well-monitored river basins. The results were validated using in situ groundwater (GW) and stream gauge data. The analysis showed a noticeable improvement in GW estimates when GRACE data were assimilated, with a best-case improvement of correlation coefficient from 0.31 to 0.53 and root mean square error (RMSE) from 8.4 to 5.4 cm compared to the reference (ensemble open-loop) case. For the data-sparse case, the best-case GW estimates increased the correlation coefficient from 0.46 to 0.61 and decreased the RMSE by 35%. For the average improvement of GW estimates (for all four cases), the correlation coefficient increases from 0.6 to 0.7 and the RMSE was reduced by 15%. Only a slight overall improvement was observed in streamflow estimates when GRACE data were assimilated. Further analysis suggested that this is likely due to sporadic short-term, but sizeable, errors in the forcing data and the lack of sufficient constraints on the soil moisture component. Overall, the results highlight the benefit of assimilating GRACE data into hydrological models, particularly in data-sparse regions, while also providing insight on future refinements of the methodology.

scholarly journals Modeling regional precipitation over the Indus River basin of Pakistan using statistical downscaling

2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 29-57
Author(s):  
Muhammad Saleem Pomee ◽  
Moetasim Ashfaq ◽  
Bashir Ahmad ◽  
Elke Hertig
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Complex Data ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Additional Measure ◽  
Indus River Basin

Abstract Complex processes govern spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation within the high-mountainous headwater regions (commonly known as the upper Indus basin (UIB)), of the Indus River basin of Pakistan. Reliable precipitation simulations particularly over the UIB present a major scientific challenge due to regional complexity and inadequate observational coverage. Here, we present a statistical downscaling approach to model observed precipitation of the entire Indus basin, with a focus on UIB within available data constraints. Taking advantage of recent high altitude (HA) observatories, we perform precipitation regionalization using K-means cluster analysis to demonstrate effectiveness of low-altitude stations to provide useful precipitation inferences over more uncertain and hydrologically important HA of the UIB. We further employ generalized linear models (GLM) with gamma and Tweedie distributions to identify major dynamic and thermodynamic drivers from a reanalysis dataset within a robust cross-validation framework that explain observed spatiotemporal precipitation patterns across the Indus basin. Final statistical models demonstrate higher predictability to resolve precipitation variability over wetter southern Himalayans and different lower Indus regions, by mainly using different dynamic predictors. The modeling framework also shows an adequate performance over more complex and uncertain trans-Himalayans and the northwestern regions of the UIB, particularly during the seasons dominated by the westerly circulations. However, the cryosphere-dominated trans-Himalayan regions, which largely govern the basin hydrology, require relatively complex models that contain dynamic and thermodynamic circulations. We also analyzed relevant atmospheric circulations during precipitation anomalies over the UIB, to evaluate physical consistency of the statistical models, as an additional measure of reliability. Overall, our results suggest that such circulation-based statistical downscaling has the potential to improve our understanding towards distinct features of the regional-scale precipitation across the upper and lower Indus basin. Such understanding should help to assess the response of this complex, data-scarce, and climate-sensitive river basin amid future climatic changes, to serve communal and scientific interests.

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