Land-atmosphere coupling in operational NCUM forecasts during the 2020 monsoon season

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Barton ◽  
Chris Taylor ◽  
A. Jayakumar ◽  
Ashis Mitra ◽  
T. Arulalan
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Initial Soil Moisture ◽  
Initial Soil ◽  
Temperature And Pressure ◽  
Moisture State ◽  
The Impact

<p>The onset, persistence and variability of summer monsoon rainfall impacts over a billion people. Advance knowledge is critical for agricultural planning and hazard mitigation, yet forecasting remains a challenge. Sources of error that have been identified in forecast models include the representation of the land surface and subsequent coupling with the boundary layer and convection. This study presents an analysis of land-atmosphere coupling in the operational Indian 4km convective scale regional model configuration of the Unified Model (NCUM-R), used by NCMRWF to provide daily forecasts. An earlier study (Barton et al, QJRMS 2019) analysed the coupling in this model for a single forecast when research aircraft observations were available. It revealed rapidly evolving biases in the monsoon trough linked to errors in the representation of soil moisture. Our current work aims to understand whether this behavior is typical of the monsoon season. This matters because the trough is an important dynamical feature and a key driver of regional rainfall. Here we provide a more comprehensive analysis by assessing the impact of initial soil moisture state on a full season of operational three day forecasts. NCUM-R output is evaluated by comparison to ERA5 reanalysis (atmospheric temperature and pressure) and satellite observations from AMSR2 (land surface temperature) and SMAP (soil moisture).  Correlations between surface and atmospheric variables in the model are computed using linear regression. Our results suggest that systematic biases in the evolution of atmospheric temperature and pressure over three days are indeed linked to errors in the initial soil moisture state. These biases likely impact rainfall predictions derived from the forecasts throughout the monsoon season. This work highlights the importance for realistic soil moisture initialisation in high resolution operational forecasts.</p>

scholarly journals Investigating the impact of initial soil moisture conditions on total infiltration by using an adapted double-ring infiltrometer

2016 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romed Ruggenthaler ◽  
Gertraud Meißl ◽  
Clemens Geitner ◽  
Georg Leitinger ◽  
Nikolaus Endstrasser ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Double Ring ◽  
Initial Soil Moisture ◽  
Initial Soil ◽  
Moisture Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Impact of Initial Soil Moisture Anomalies on Subsequent Precipitation over North America in the Coupled Land–Atmosphere Model CAM3–CLM3

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 513-533 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yeonjoo Kim ◽  
Guiling Wang
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
North America ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Initial Soil Moisture ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Initial Soil ◽  
Atmosphere Model ◽  
Shallow Soils ◽  
The Impact

Abstract To investigate the impact of anomalous soil moisture conditions on subsequent precipitation over North America, a series of numerical experiments is performed using a modified version of the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 and the Community Land Model version 3 (CAM3–CLM3). First, the mechanisms underlying the impact of spring and summer soil moisture on subsequent precipitation are examined based on simulations starting on 1 April and 1 June, respectively. How the response of precipitation to initial soil moisture anomalies depends on the characteristics of such anomalies, including the timing, magnitude, spatial coverage, and vertical depth, is then investigated. There are five main findings. First, the impact of spring soil moisture anomalies is not evident until early summer although their impact on the large-scale circulation results in slight changes in precipitation during spring. Second, precipitation increases with initial soil moisture almost linearly within a certain range of soil moisture. Beyond this range, precipitation is less responsive. Third, during the first month following the onset of summer soil moisture anomalies, the precipitation response to wet anomalies is larger in magnitude than that to dry anomalies. However, the resulting wet anomalies in precipitation quickly dissipate within a month or so, while the resulting dry anomalies in precipitation remain at a considerable magnitude for a longer period. Consistently, wet spring anomalies are likely to be ameliorated before summer, and thus have a smaller impact (in magnitude) on summer precipitation than dry spring anomalies. Fourth, soil moisture anomalies of smaller spatial coverage lead to precipitation anomalies that are smaller and less persistent, compared to anomalies at the continental scale. Finally, anomalies in shallow soil can persist long enough to influence the subsequent precipitation at the seasonal time scale. Dry anomalies in deep soils last much longer than those in shallow soils.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Numerical Weather Forecasts to Initial Soil Moisture Variations in CFSv2

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 1973-1983 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul A. Dirmeyer ◽  
Subhadeep Halder
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Initial Soil Moisture ◽  
Initial Soil

Abstract When initial soil moisture is perturbed among ensemble members in the operational NWS global forecast model, surface latent and sensible fluxes are immediately affected much more strongly, systematically, and over a greater area than conventional land–atmosphere coupling metrics suggest. Flux perturbations are likewise transmitted to the atmospheric boundary layer more formidably than climatology-based metrics would indicate. Impacts are not limited to the traditional land–atmosphere coupling hot spots, but extend over nearly all ice-free land areas of the globe. Key to isolating this effect is that initial atmospheric states are identical among quantities correlated, pinpointing soil moisture and snow cover. A consequence of this high sensitivity is that significant positive impacts of realistic land surface initialization on the skill of deterministic near-surface temperature and humidity forecasts are also immediate and nearly universal during boreal spring and summer (the period investigated) and persist for at least 3 days over most land areas. Land surface initialization may be more broadly important for weather forecasts than previously realized, as the research focus historically has been on subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales. This study attempts to bridge the gap between climate studies with their associated coupling assessments and weather forecast time scales. Furthermore, errors in land surface initialization and shortcomings in the parameterization of atmospheric processes sensitive to surface fluxes may have greater consequences than previously recognized, the latter exemplified by the lack of impact on precipitation forecasts even though the simulation of boundary layer development is shown to be greatly improved with realistic soil moisture initialization.

scholarly journals Skill of 2-m Temperature Seasonal Forecasts over Europe in ECMWF and RegCM Models

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (4) ◽  
pp. 1326-1346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirta Patarčić ◽  
Čedo Branković
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Systematic Errors ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Global Model ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Initial Soil Moisture ◽  
Initial Soil ◽  
The Impact

Various measures of forecast quality are analyzed for 2-m temperature seasonal forecasts over Europe from global and regional model ensembles for winter and summer seasons during the period 1991 to 2001. The 50-km Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) is used to dynamically downscale nine-member ensembles of ECMWF global experimental seasonal forecasts. Three sets of RegCM3 experiments with different soil moisture initializations are performed: the RegCM3 default initial soil moisture, initial soil moisture taken from ECMWF seasonal forecasts, and initial soil moisture obtained from RegCM3 ECMWF interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim)-driven integrations (RegCM3 climatology). Both deterministic and probabilistic skill metrics are estimated. The better-resolved spatial scales in near-surface temperature by RegCM3 do not necessarily lead to the improved regional model skill in the regions where systematic errors are large. The impact of initial soil moisture on RegCM3 forecast skill is seen in summer in the southern part of the integration domain. When regional model soil moisture was initialized from ECMWF seasonal forecasts, systematic errors were reduced and deterministic skill was enhanced relative to the other RegCM3 experiments. The Brier skill score for rare cold anomalies in this experiment is comparable to that of the global model, whereas in other experiments it is significantly smaller than in global model. There is no major impact of soil moisture initialization on forecast skill in winter. However, some significant improvements in RegCM3 probabilistic skill scores for positive anomalies in winter are found in the central part of the domain where RegCM3 systematic errors are smaller than in global model.

scholarly journals Improvement of Short-Term Climate Prediction with Indirect Soil Variables Assimilation in China

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 1399-1412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chenghai Wang ◽  
Zhiqiang Cui
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Climate Prediction ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Initial Soil Moisture ◽  
Soil Variables ◽  
Initial Soil ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Atmospheric Variables

Short-term climate prediction based on a regional climate dynamical model heavily depends on atmospheric forcing and initial soil moisture state. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with different nudging schemes is used for approximate 2-yr simulations for investigating the importance of soil variables in seasonal temperature and precipitation simulations. The results show that the improvement of seasonal climate simulation (precipitation and air temperature) is more evident in the experiment of assimilating both soil and atmospheric variables than that in the experiments of assimilating atmospheric variables only. Further investigation of the impact of indirectly assimilating soil moisture on precipitation prediction with an indirect soil nudging (ISN) scheme shows that the precipitation reproducibility in summer is better than that in winter, and the effect of ISN is particularly prominent in the region where seasonal precipitation exceeds 200 mm. Moreover, statistical results also illustrate that initial soil moisture plays a crucial role in seasonal precipitation forecasts because of its slowly evolving nature, and its effect is more distinct in semiarid and semihumid regions than in arid and humid regions. The effects of indirectly assimilating soil moisture on precipitation can last two and three months in semiarid and semihumid areas, respectively.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of high-temperature weather to initial soil moisture: a case study using the WRF model

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
pp. 9623-9639 ◽  
Author(s):  
X.-M. Zeng ◽  
B. Wang ◽  
Y. Zhang ◽  
S. Song ◽  
X. Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
High Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Western Pacific Subtropical High ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Initial Soil Moisture ◽  
Initial Soil ◽  
Diabatic Processes ◽  
Hot Weather ◽  
The Western Pacific

Abstract. Using a succession of 24 h Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) simulations, we investigate the sensitivity to initial soil moisture of a short-range high-temperature weather event that occurred in late July 2003 in East China. The initial soil moisture (SMOIS) in the Noah land surface scheme is adjusted (relative to the control run, CTL) for four groups of simulations: DRY25 (−25%), DRY50 (−50%), WET25 (+25%) and WET50 (+50%). Ten 24 h integrations are performed in each group. We focus on 2 m surface air temperature (SAT) greater than 35 °C (the threshold of "high-temperature" events in China) at 06:00 UTC (roughly 14:00 LT in the study domain) to analyse the occurrence of the high-temperature event. The 10-day mean results show that the 06:00 UTC SAT (SAT06) is sensitive to the SMOIS change; specifically, SAT06 exhibits an apparent increase with the SMOIS decrease (e.g. compared with CTL, DRY25 generally results in a 1 °C SAT06 increase over the land surface of East China), areas with 35 °C or higher SAT06 are the most affected, and the simulations are more sensitive to the SMOIS decrease than to the SMOIS increase, which suggests that hot weather can be amplified under low soil moisture conditions. Regarding the mechanism underlying the extremely high SAT06, sensible heat flux has been shown to directly heat the lower atmosphere, and latent heat flux has been found to be more sensitive to the SMOIS change, resulting in an overall increase in surface net radiation due to the increased greenhouse effect (e.g. with the SMOIS increase from DRY25 to CTL, the 10-day mean net radiation increases by 5 W m−2). Additionally, due to the unique and dynamic nature of the western Pacific subtropical high, negative feedback occurs between the regional atmospheric circulation and the air temperature in the lower atmosphere while positive feedback occurs in the mid-troposphere. Using a method based on an analogous temperature relationship, a detailed analysis of the physical processes shows that for the SAT change, the SMOIS change affects diabatic processes (e.g. surface fluxes) more strongly than the adiabatic process of subsidence in the western Pacific subtropical high in the five groups of simulations. Interestingly, although diabatic processes dominate subsidence during the daytime and night-time separately, they do not necessarily dominate during the 24 h periods (e.g. they are dominant in the WET and CTL simulations only). Further, as the SMOIS decreases, the SAT06 increases, which is largely due to the reduced cooling effect of the diabatic processes, rather than the warming effect of subsidence. Unlike previous studies on heatwave events at climate timescales, this paper presents the sensitivity of simulated short-term hot weather to initial soil moisture and emphasises the importance of appropriate soil moisture initialization when simulating hot weather.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of high-temperature weather to initial soil moisture: a case study with the WRF model

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 11665-11714 ◽  
Author(s):  
X.-M. Zeng ◽  
B. Wang ◽  
Y. Zhang ◽  
S. Song ◽  
X. Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
High Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Western Pacific Subtropical High ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Initial Soil Moisture ◽  
Initial Soil ◽  
Diabatic Processes ◽  
Hot Weather ◽  
The Western Pacific

Abstract. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), we investigate the sensitivity of simulated short-range high-temperature weather to initial soil moisture for the East China extremely hot event in late July 2003 via a succession of 24 h simulations. The initial soil moisture (SMOIS) in the Noah land surface scheme is prescribed for five groups of designed simulations, i.e., relative to the control run (CTL), SMOIS is changed by −25, −50, +25 and +50% in the DRY25, DRY50, WET25 and WET50 groups, respectively, with ten 24 h-long integrations performed in each group. We focus on above-35 °C (standard of so-called "high-temperature" event in China) 2 m surface air temperature (SAT) at 06:00 UTC (roughly 12:00 LT in the study domain) to analyze the occurrence of the high-temperature event. Ten-day mean results show that the 06:00 UTC SAT (SAT06) is sensitive to the SMOIS change, i.e., SAT06 exhibits an apparent rising with the SMOIS decrease (e.g., compared with CTL, DRY25 results in a 1 °C SAT06 rising in general over land surface of East China), areas with above-35 °C SAT06 are most affected, and the simulations are found to be more sensitive to the SMOIS decrease than to the SMOIS increase, suggesting that hot weather can be amplified under low soil moisture conditions. With regard to the mechanism of influencing the extreme high SAT06, sensible heat flux shows to directly heat the lower atmosphere, latent heat flux is found to be more sensitive to the SMOIS change and results in the overall increase of surface net radiation due to the increased greenhouse effect (e.g., with the SMOIS increase of 25% from DRY25 to CTL, the ten-day mean net radiation is increased by 5 W m−2), and a negative (positive) feedback is found between regional atmospheric circulation and air temperature in the lower atmosphere (mid-troposphere) due to the unique dynamic nature of the western Pacific subtropical high. Using a method based on an analogous temperature relationship, a detailed analysis of physical processes shows that for the SAT change, the diabatic processes (e.g., surface fluxes) are affected more strongly by the SMOIS change than the adiabatic process (i.e., downward airflow, or convection) in the western Pacific subtropical high in the five groups of simulations. Very interestingly, although the diabatic processes dominate over the convection process during the daytime and nighttime, respectively, they do not show to necessarily dominate during the 24 h-long periods (e.g., they are primary in the WET and CTL simulations only). It is also found that as the SMOIS decreased, the SAT06 is increased, which is largely because of the reduced cooling effect of the diabatic processes, rather than the temperature-rising effect of convection. Unlike previous studies of heatwave events at climate time scales, this paper presents a sensitivity of simulated short-range hot weather to initial soil moisture, and emphasizes the importance of appropriate initial soil moisture in simulating the hot weather.

scholarly journals How does initial soil moisture influence the hydrological response? A case study from southern France

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (12) ◽  
pp. 6127-6146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena Uber ◽  
Jean-Pierre Vandervaere ◽  
Isabella Zin ◽  
Isabelle Braud ◽  
Maik Heistermann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Hydrograph Separation ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Southern France ◽  
Initial Soil Moisture ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Initial Soil ◽  
Rain Events ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The Cévennes–Vivarais region in southern France is prone to heavy rainfall that can lead to flash floods which are one of the most hazardous natural risks in Europe. The results of numerous studies show that besides rainfall and physical catchment characteristics the catchment's initial soil moisture also impacts the hydrological response to rain events. The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between catchment mean initial soil moisture θ̃ini and the hydrological response that is quantified using the event-based runoff coefficient ϕev in the two nested catchments of the Gazel (3.4 km2) and the Claduègne (43 km2). Thus, the objectives are twofold: (1) obtaining meaningful estimates of soil moisture at catchment scale from a dense network of in situ measurements and (2) using this estimate of θ̃ini to analyze its relation with ϕev calculated for many runoff events. A sampling setup including 45 permanently installed frequency domain reflectancy probes that continuously measure soil moisture at three depths is applied. Additionally, on-alert surface measurements at ≈10 locations in each one of 11 plots are conducted. Thus, catchment mean soil moisture can be confidently assessed with a standard error of the mean of ≤1.7 vol % over a wide range of soil moisture conditions. The ϕev is calculated from high-resolution discharge and precipitation data for several rain events with a cumulative precipitation Pcum ranging from less than 5 mm to more than 80 mm. Because of the high uncertainty of ϕev associated with the hydrograph separation method, ϕev is calculated with several methods, including graphical methods, digital filters and a tracer-based method. The results indicate that the hydrological response depends on θ̃ini: during dry conditions ϕev is consistently below 0.1, even for events with high and intense precipitation. Above a threshold of θ̃ini=34 vol % ϕev can reach values up to 0.99 but there is a high scatter. Some variability can be explained with a weak correlation of ϕev with Pcum and rain intensity, but a considerable part of the variability remains unexplained. It is concluded that threshold-based methods can be helpful to prevent overestimation of the hydrological response during dry catchment conditions. The impact of soil moisture on the hydrological response during wet catchment conditions, however, is still insufficiently understood and cannot be generalized based on the present results.

scholarly journals A Numerical Sensitivity Study on the Impact of Soil Moisture on Convection-Related Parameters and Convective Precipitation over Complex Terrain

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (12) ◽  
pp. 2971-2987 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Barthlott ◽  
Norbert Kalthoff
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Initial Soil Moisture ◽  
Initial Soil ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of soil moisture on convection-related parameters and convective precipitation over complex terrain is studied by numerical experiments using the nonhydrostatic Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) model. For 1 day of the Convective and Orographically Induced Precipitation Study (COPS) conducted during summer 2007 in southwestern Germany and eastern France, initial soil moisture is varied from −50% to +50% of the reference run in steps of 5%. As synoptic-scale forcing is weak on the day under investigation, the triggering of convection is mainly due to soil–atmosphere interactions and boundary layer processes. Whereas a systematic relationship to soil moisture exists for a number of variables (e.g., latent and sensible fluxes at the ground, near-surface temperature, and humidity), a systematic increase of 24-h accumulated precipitation with increasing initial soil moisture is only present in the simulations that are drier than the reference run. The time evolution of convective precipitation can be divided into two regimes with different conditions to initiate and foster convection. Furthermore, the impact of soil moisture is different for the initiation and modification of convective precipitation. The results demonstrate the high sensitivity of numerical weather prediction to initial soil moisture fields.

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