Greenland ice sheet mass balance from 1840 through next week

Abstract. The mass of the Greenland ice sheet is declining as mass gain from snowfall is exceeded by mass loss from surface meltwater runoff, marine-terminating glacier calving and submarine melting, and basal melting. Here we use the input/output (IO) method to estimate mass change from 1840 through next week. Mass gains come from three regional climate models (RCMs; HIRHAM/HARMONIE, MAR, and RACMO) and a semi-empirical surface mass balance (SMB) model. Mass losses come from the RCMs, a statistical SMB model, ice discharge at marine terminating glaciers, and ice melted at the base of the ice sheet. From these products we provide an annual estimate of GIS mass balance from 1840 through 1985 and a daily estimate at sector and region scale from 1986 through next week. Compared to other mass balance estimates, this product updates daily, has higher temporal resolution, and is the first IO product to include the basal mass balance which is a source of an additional ~8 % mass loss. Our results demonstrate an accelerating GIS-scale mass loss and general agreement among six other products. Results from this study are available at https://dataverse01.geus.dk/privateurl.xhtml?token=d09976c4-4f89-43ef-8f91-173d269806a4 (Mankoff et al., 2021).

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Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance: evaluating simulations and making projections with regional climate models

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-6-1275-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 6 (6) ◽

pp. 1275-1294 ◽

Cited By ~ 88

Author(s):

J. G. L. Rae ◽

G. Aðalgeirsdóttir ◽

T. L. Edwards ◽

X. Fettweis ◽

J. M. Gregory ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Sea Level ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Surface Mass Balance ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Sheet Surface

Abstract. Four high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) have been set up for the area of Greenland, with the aim of providing future projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), and its contribution to sea level rise, with greater accuracy than is possible from coarser-resolution general circulation models (GCMs). This is the first time an intercomparison has been carried out of RCM results for Greenland climate and SMB. Output from RCM simulations for the recent past with the four RCMs is evaluated against available observations. The evaluation highlights the importance of using a detailed snow physics scheme, especially regarding the representations of albedo and meltwater refreezing. Simulations with three of the RCMs for the 21st century using SRES scenario A1B from two GCMs produce trends of between −5.5 and −1.1 Gt yr−2 in SMB (equivalent to +0.015 and +0.003 mm sea level equivalent yr−2), with trends of smaller magnitude for scenario E1, in which emissions are mitigated. Results from one of the RCMs whose present-day simulation is most realistic indicate that an annual mean near-surface air temperature increase over Greenland of ~ 2°C would be required for the mass loss to increase such that it exceeds accumulation, thereby causing the SMB to become negative, which has been suggested as a threshold beyond which the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated.

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GrSMBMIP: Intercomparison of the modelled 1980-2012 surface mass balance over the Greenland Ice sheet

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10792 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Xavier Fettweis ◽

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Climate Models ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Ice Cores ◽

Surface Mass Balance ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Meltwater Runoff

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss has been accelerating at a rate of about 20 +/- 10 Gt/yr2 since the end of the 1990's, with around 60% of this mass loss directly attributed to enhanced surface meltwater runoff. However, in the climate and glaciology communities, different approaches exist on how to model the different surface mass balance (SMB) components using: (1) complex physically-based climate models which are computationally expensive; (2) intermediate complexity energy balance models; (3) simple and fast positive degree day models which base their inferences on statistical principles and are computationally highly efficient. Additionally, many of these models compute the SMB components based on different spatial and temporal resolutions, with different forcing fields as well as different ice sheet topographies and extents, making inter-comparison difficult. In the GrIS SMB model intercomparison project (GrSMBMIP) we address these issues by forcing each model with the same data (i.e., the ERA-Interim reanalysis) except for two global models for which this forcing is limited to the oceanic conditions, and at the same time by interpolating all modelled results onto a common ice sheet mask at 1 km horizontal resolution for the common period 1980-2012. The SMB outputs from 13 models are then compared over the GrIS to (1) SMB estimates using a combination of gravimetric remote sensing data from GRACE and measured ice discharge, (2) ice cores, snow pits, in-situ SMB observations, and (3) remotely sensed bare ice extent from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Our results reveal that the mean GrIS SMB of all 13 models has been positive between 1980 and 2012 with an average of 340 +/- 112 Gt/yr, but has decreased at an average rate of -7.3 Gt/yr2 (with a significance of 96%), mainly driven by an increase of 8.0 Gt/yr2 (with a significance of 98%) in meltwater runoff. Spatially, the largest spread among models can be found around the margins of the ice sheet, highlighting the need for accurate representation of the GrIS ablation zone extent and processes driving the surface melt. In addition, a higher density of in-situ SMB observations is required, especially in the south-east accumulation zone, where the model spread can reach 2 mWE/yr due to large discrepancies in modelled snowfall accumulation. Overall, polar regional climate models (RCMs) perform the best compared to observations, in particular for simulating precipitation patterns. However, other simpler and faster models have biases of same order than RCMs with observations and remain then useful tools for long-term simulations. It is also interesting to note that the ensemble mean of the 13 models produces the best estimate of the present day SMB relative to observations, suggesting that biases are not systematic among models. Finally, results from MAR forced by ERA5 will be added in this intercomparison to evaluate the added value of using this new reanalysis as forcing vs the former ERA-Interim reanalysis (used in SMBMIP).&#160;

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Recent Precipitation Decrease Across the Western Greenland Ice Sheet Percolation Zone

10.5194/tc-2019-103 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Gabriel Lewis ◽

Erich Osterberg ◽

Robert Hawley ◽

Hans Peter Marshall ◽

Tate Meehan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

The Past ◽

Precipitation Decrease ◽

Percolation Zone

Abstract. The mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in a warming climate is of critical interest to scientists and the general public in the context of future sea-level rise. Increased melting in the GrIS percolation zone due to atmospheric warming over the past several decades has led to increased mass loss at lower elevations. Previous studies have hypothesized that this warming is accompanied by a precipitation increase, as would be expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, negating some of the melt-induced mass loss throughout the Western GrIS. This study tests that hypothesis by calculating snow accumulation rates and trends across the Western GrIS percolation zone, providing new critical accumulation estimates in regions with sparse and/or dated in situ data for calibration of future regional climate models. We present accumulation records from sixteen 22–32 m long firn cores and 4436 km of ground penetrating-radar, covering the past 20–60 years of accumulation, collected across the Western GrIS percolation zone as part of the Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS) project. Trends from both radar and firn cores, as well as commonly used regional climate models, show decreasing accumulation and precipitation over the 1996–2016 period, which we attribute to shifting storm-tracks related to stronger atmospheric summer blocking over Greenland. Changes in atmospheric circulation over the past 20 years, specifically anomalously high summertime blocking, have reduced GrIS surface mass balance through both an increase in surface melting and a decrease in accumulation.

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Application of GRACE to the assessment of model-based estimates of monthly Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance (2003–2012)

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-10-1965-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 10 (5) ◽

pp. 1965-1989 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel ◽

David N. Wiese ◽

Eric Y. Larour ◽

Michael M. Watkins ◽

Jason E. Box ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Climate Models ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Model Based ◽

Ice Sheet Mass Balance

Abstract. Quantifying the Greenland Ice Sheet's future contribution to sea level rise is a challenging task that requires accurate estimates of ice sheet sensitivity to climate change. Forward ice sheet models are promising tools for estimating future ice sheet behavior, yet confidence is low because evaluation of historical simulations is challenging due to the scarcity of continental-wide data for model evaluation. Recent advancements in processing of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data using Bayesian-constrained mass concentration ("mascon") functions have led to improvements in spatial resolution and noise reduction of monthly global gravity fields. Specifically, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's JPL RL05M GRACE mascon solution (GRACE_JPL) offers an opportunity for the assessment of model-based estimates of ice sheet mass balance (MB) at ∼ 300 km spatial scales. Here, we quantify the differences between Greenland monthly observed MB (GRACE_JPL) and that estimated by state-of-the-art, high-resolution models, with respect to GRACE_JPL and model uncertainties. To simulate the years 2003–2012, we force the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) with anomalies from three different surface mass balance (SMB) products derived from regional climate models. Resulting MB is compared against GRACE_JPL within individual mascons. Overall, we find agreement in the northeast and southwest where MB is assumed to be primarily controlled by SMB. In the interior, we find a discrepancy in trend, which we presume to be related to millennial-scale dynamic thickening not considered by our model. In the northwest, seasonal amplitudes agree, but modeled mass trends are muted relative to GRACE_JPL. Here, discrepancies are likely controlled by temporal variability in ice discharge and other related processes not represented by our model simulations, i.e., hydrological processes and ice–ocean interaction. In the southeast, GRACE_JPL exhibits larger seasonal amplitude than predicted by the models while simultaneously having more pronounced trends; thus, discrepancies are likely controlled by a combination of missing processes and errors in both the SMB products and ISSM. At the margins, we find evidence of consistent intra-annual variations in regional MB that deviate distinctively from the SMB annual cycle. Ultimately, these monthly-scale variations, likely associated with hydrology or ice–ocean interaction, contribute to steeper negative mass trends observed by GRACE_JPL. Thus, models should consider such processes at relatively high (monthly-to-seasonal) temporal resolutions to achieve accurate estimates of Greenland MB.

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Increasing meltwater discharge from the Nuuk region of the Greenland ice sheet and implications for mass balance (1960–2012)

Journal of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/2014jog13j065 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 60 (220) ◽

pp. 314-322 ◽

Cited By ~ 46

Author(s):

Dirk Van As ◽

Morten Langer Andersen ◽

Dorthe Petersen ◽

Xavier Fettweis ◽

Jan H. Van Angelen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Climate Models ◽

High Spatial Resolution ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Grid Spacing ◽

Surface Mass ◽

The Past

AbstractWe assess the runoff and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet in the Nuuk region (southwest) using output of two regional climate models (RCMs) evaluated by observations. The region encompasses six glaciers that drain into Godthåbsfjord. RCM data (1960–2012) are resampled to a high spatial resolution to include the narrow (relative to the native grid spacing) glacier trunks in the ice mask. Comparing RCM gridded results with automatic weather station (AWS) point measurements reveals that locally models can underestimate ablation and overestimate accumulation by up to tens of per cent. However, comparison with lake discharge indicates that modelled regional runoff totals are more accurate. Model results show that melt and runoff in the Nuuk region have doubled over the past two decades. Regional SMB attained negative values in recent high-melt years. Taking into account frontal ablation of the marine-terminating glaciers, the region lost 10–20 km3 w.e. a–1 in 2010–12. If 2010 melting prevails during the remainder of this century, a low-end estimate of sea-level rise of 5 mm is expected by 2100 from this relatively small section (2.6%) of the ice sheet alone.

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Towards direct coupling of regional climate models and ice sheet models by mass balance gradients: application to the Greenland Ice Sheet

The Cryosphere Discussions ◽

10.5194/tcd-5-2115-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 5 (4) ◽

pp. 2115-2157 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

M. M. Helsen ◽

R. S. W. van de Wal ◽

M. R. van den Broeke ◽

W. J. van de Berg ◽

J. Oerlemans

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Lapse Rate ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Temperature Lapse Rate

Abstract. It is notoriously difficult to couple surface mass balance (SMB) results from climate models to the changing geometry of an ice sheet model. This problem is traditionally avoided by using only accumulation fields from a climate model, and deriving SMB by parameterizing the run-off as a function of temperature, which is often related to surface elevation. In this study, a new parameterization of SMB is presented, designed for use in ice dynamical models to allow a direct adjustment of SMB as a result of a change in elevation (Hs) or a change in climate forcing. This method is based on spatial gradients in the present-day SMB field as computed by a regional climate model. Separate linear relations are derived for ablation and accumulation regimes, using only those pairs of Hs an SMB that are found within a minimum search radius. This approach enables a dynamic SMB forcing of ice sheet models, also for initially non-glaciated areas in the peripheral areas of an ice sheet, and circumvents traditional temperature lapse rate assumptions. The method is applied to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Model experiments using both steady-state forcing and more realistic glacial-interglacial forcing result in ice sheet reconstructions and behavior that compare favorably with present-day observations of ice thickness.

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Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance: evaluating simulations and making projections with regional climate models

The Cryosphere Discussions ◽

10.5194/tcd-6-2059-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 2059-2113 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

J. G. L. Rae ◽

G. Aðalgeirsdóttir ◽

T. L. Edwards ◽

X. Fettweis ◽

J. M. Gregory ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Sea Level ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Surface Mass Balance ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Sheet Surface

Abstract. Four high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) have been set up for the area of Greenland, with the aim of providing future projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), and its contribution to sea level rise, with greater accuracy than is possible from coarser-resolution general circulation models (GCMs). This is the first time an intercomparison has been carried out of RCM results for Greenland climate and SMB. Output from RCM simulations for the recent past with the four RCMs is evaluated against available observations. The evaluation highlights the importance of using a detailed snow physics scheme, especially regarding the representations of albedo and meltwater refreezing. Simulations with three of the RCMs for the 21st century using SRES scenario A1B from two GCMs produce trends of between −5.5 and −1.1 Gt yr−2 in SMB (equivalent to +0.015 and +0.003 mm sea level equivalent yr−2), with trends of smaller magnitude for scenario E1, in which emissions are mitigated. Results from one of the RCMs whose present-day simulation is most realistic indicate that an annual-mean near-surface air temperature increase over Greenland of ~2 &cir;C would be required for the mass loss to increase such that it exceeds accumulation, thereby causing the SMB to become negative, which has been suggested as a threshold beyond which the ice-sheet would eventually be eliminated.

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GrSMBMIP: Intercomparison of the modelled 1980–2012 surface mass balance over the Greenland Ice sheet

10.5194/tc-2019-321 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Xavier Fettweis ◽

Stefan Hofer ◽

Uta Krebs-Kanzow ◽

Charles Amory ◽

Teruo Aoki ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Mass Balance ◽

Climate Models ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Ice Cores ◽

Surface Mass Balance ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Meltwater Runoff

Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss has been accelerating at a rate of about 20 ± 10 Gt/yr2 since the end of the 1990's, with around 60 % of this mass loss directly attributed to enhanced surface meltwater runoff. However, in the climate and glaciology communities, different approaches exist on how to model the different surface mass balance (SMB) components using: (1) complex physically-based climate models which are computationally expensive; (2) intermediate complexity energy balance models; (3) simple and fast positive degree day models which base their inferences on statistical principles and are computationally highly efficient. Additionally, many of these models compute the SMB components based on different spatial and temporal resolutions, with different forcing fields as well as different ice sheet topographies and extents, making inter-comparison difficult. In the GrIS SMB model intercomparison project (GrSMBMIP) we address these issues by forcing each model with the same data (i.e., the ERA-Interim reanalysis) except for two global models for which this forcing is limited to the oceanic conditions, and at the same time by interpolating all modelled results onto a common ice sheet mask at 1 km horizontal resolution for the common period 1980–2012. The SMB outputs from 13 models are then compared over the GrIS to (1) SMB estimates using a combination of gravimetric remote sensing data from GRACE and measured ice discharge, (2) ice cores, snow pits, in-situ SMB observations, and (3) remotely sensed bare ice extent from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Our results reveal that the mean GrIS SMB of all 13 models has been positive between 1980 and 2012 with an average of 340 ± Gt/yr, but has decreased at an average rate of −7.3 Gt/yr2 (with a significance of 96 %), mainly driven by an increase of 8.0 Gt/yr2 (with a significance of 98 %) in meltwater runoff. Spatially, the largest spread among models can be found around the margins of the ice sheet, highlighting the need for accurate representation of the GrIS ablation zone extent and processes driving the surface melt. In addition, a higher density of in-situ SMB observations is required, especially in the south-east accumulation zone, where the model spread can reach 2 mWE/yr due to large discrepancies in modelled snowfall accumulation. Overall, polar regional climate models (RCMs) perform the best compared to observations, in particular for simulating precipitation patterns. However, other simpler and faster models have biases of same order than RCMs with observations and remain then useful tools for long-term simulations. Finally, it is interesting to note that the ensemble mean of the 13 models produces the best estimate of the present day SMB relative to observations, suggesting that biases are not systematic among models.

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Coupling of climate models and ice sheet models by surface mass balance gradients: application to the Greenland Ice Sheet

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-6-255-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 255-272 ◽

Cited By ~ 45

Author(s):

M. M. Helsen ◽

R. S. W. van de Wal ◽

M. R. van den Broeke ◽

W. J. van de Berg ◽

J. Oerlemans

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Lapse Rate ◽

Surface Mass Balance ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Temperature Lapse Rate

Abstract. It is notoriously difficult to couple surface mass balance (SMB) results from climate models to the changing geometry of an ice sheet model. This problem is traditionally avoided by using only accumulation from a climate model, and parameterizing the meltwater run-off as a function of temperature, which is often related to surface elevation (Hs). In this study, we propose a new strategy to calculate SMB, to allow a direct adjustment of SMB to a change in ice sheet topography and/or a change in climate forcing. This method is based on elevational gradients in the SMB field as computed by a regional climate model. Separate linear relations are derived for ablation and accumulation, using pairs of Hs and SMB within a minimum search radius. The continuously adjusting SMB forcing is consistent with climate model forcing fields, also for initially non-glaciated areas in the peripheral areas of an ice sheet. When applied to an asynchronous coupled ice sheet – climate model setup, this method circumvents traditional temperature lapse rate assumptions. Here we apply it to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Experiments using both steady-state forcing and glacial-interglacial forcing result in realistic ice sheet reconstructions.

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Brief communication: Impact of common ice mask in surface mass balance estimates over the Antarctic ice sheet

10.5194/tc-2021-317 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Nicolaj Hansen ◽

Sebastian Bjerregaard Simonsen ◽

Fredrik Boberg ◽

Christoph Kittel ◽

Andrew Orr ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Balance ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

Surface Mass Balance ◽

Surface Mass ◽

Glacier Ice ◽

High Precipitation ◽

The Antarctic

Abstract. Regional climate models compute ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB) over a mask that defines the area covered by glacier ice, but ice masks have not been harmonised between models. Intercomparison studies of modelled SMB therefore use a common ice mask. The SMB in areas outside the common ice mask, which are typically coastal and high precipitation regions, are discarded. Ice mask differences change integrated SMB by between 40.5 to 140.6 Gt yr−1, (1.8 % to 6.0 % of ensemble mean SMB), equivalent to the entire Antarctic mass imbalance. We conclude there is a pressing need for a common ice mask protocol.

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