scholarly journals Dynamic versus static neural network model for rainfall forecasting at Klang River Basin, Malaysia

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 6489-6532 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. El-Shafie ◽  
A. Noureldin ◽  
M. R. Taha ◽  
A. Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
The Other ◽  
Hydrological Process ◽  
Rainfall Forecasting ◽  
Dynamic Neural Network ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Unseen Data

Abstract. Rainfall is considered as one of the major component of the hydrological process, it takes significant part of evaluating drought and flooding events. Therefore, it is important to have accurate model for rainfall forecasting. Recently, several data-driven modeling approaches have been investigated to perform such forecasting task such as Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLP-NN). In fact, the rainfall time series modeling involves an important temporal dimension. On the other hand, the classical MLP-NN is a static and memoryless network architecture that is effective for complex nonlinear static mapping. This research focuses on investigating the potential of introducing a neural network that could address the temporal relationships of the rainfall series. Two different static neural networks and one dynamic neural network namely; Multi-Layer Peceptron Neural network (MLP-NN), Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) and Input Delay Neural Network (IDNN), respectively, have been examined in this study. Those models had been developed for two time horizon in monthly and weekly rainfall basis forecasting at Klang River, Malaysia. Data collected over 12 yr (1997–2008) on weekly basis and 22 yr (1987–2008) for monthly basis were used to develop and examine the performance of the proposed models. Comprehensive comparison analyses were carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed static and dynamic neural network. Results showed that MLP-NN neural network model able to follow the similar trend of the actual rainfall, yet it still relatively poor. RBFNN model achieved better accuracy over the MLP-NN model. Moreover, the forecasting accuracy of the IDNN model outperformed during training and testing stage which prove a consistent level of accuracy with seen and unseen data. Furthermore, the IDNN significantly enhance the forecasting accuracy if compared with the other static neural network model as they could memorize the sequential or time varying patterns.

scholarly journals Dynamic versus static neural network model for rainfall forecasting at Klang River Basin, Malaysia

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 1151-1169 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. El-Shafie ◽  
A. Noureldin ◽  
M. Taha ◽  
A. Hussain ◽  
M. Mukhlisin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Hydrological Process ◽  
Multi Layer Perceptron ◽  
Rainfall Forecasting ◽  
Unseen Data

Abstract. Rainfall is considered as one of the major components of the hydrological process; it takes significant part in evaluating drought and flooding events. Therefore, it is important to have an accurate model for rainfall forecasting. Recently, several data-driven modeling approaches have been investigated to perform such forecasting tasks as multi-layer perceptron neural networks (MLP-NN). In fact, the rainfall time series modeling involves an important temporal dimension. On the other hand, the classical MLP-NN is a static and has a memoryless network architecture that is effective for complex nonlinear static mapping. This research focuses on investigating the potential of introducing a neural network that could address the temporal relationships of the rainfall series. Two different static neural networks and one dynamic neural network, namely the multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLP-NN), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) and input delay neural network (IDNN), respectively, have been examined in this study. Those models had been developed for the two time horizons for monthly and weekly rainfall forecasting at Klang River, Malaysia. Data collected over 12 yr (1997–2008) on a weekly basis and 22 yr (1987–2008) on a monthly basis were used to develop and examine the performance of the proposed models. Comprehensive comparison analyses were carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed static and dynamic neural networks. Results showed that the MLP-NN neural network model is able to follow trends of the actual rainfall, however, not very accurately. RBFNN model achieved better accuracy than the MLP-NN model. Moreover, the forecasting accuracy of the IDNN model was better than that of static network during both training and testing stages, which proves a consistent level of accuracy with seen and unseen data.

Credit Scoring Using Supervised and Unsupervised Neural Networks

2002 ◽  
pp. 154-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
David West ◽  
Cornelius Muchineuta
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Credit Scoring ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Subprime Lending ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Combined Use

Some of the concerns that plague developers of neural network decision support systems include: (a) How do I understand the underlying structure of the problem domain; (b) How can I discover unknown imperfections in the data which might detract from the generalization accuracy of the neural network model; and (c) What variables should I include to obtain the best generalization properties in the neural network model? In this paper we explore the combined use of unsupervised and supervised neural networks to address these concerns. We develop and test a credit-scoring application using a self-organizing map and a multilayered feedforward neural network. The final product is a neural network decision support system that facilitates subprime lending and is flexible and adaptive to the needs of e-commerce applications.

Estimation of Polypropylene Melt Index through the Application of Stacked Neural Networks

2011 ◽  
Vol 187 ◽  
pp. 411-415
Author(s):  
Lu Yue Xia ◽  
Hai Tian Pan ◽  
Meng Fei Zhou ◽  
Yi Jun Cai ◽  
Xiao Fang Sun
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Measurement Interval ◽  
Melt Index ◽  
Polypropylene Melt ◽  
Single Neural Network

Melt index is the most important parameter in determining the polypropylene grade. Since the lack of proper on-line instruments, its measurement interval and delay are both very long. This makes the quality control quite difficult. A modeling approach based on stacked neural networks is proposed to estimation the polypropylene melt index. Single neural network model generalization capability can be significantly improved by using stacked neural networks model. Proper determination of the stacking weights is essential for good stacked neural networks model performance, so determination of appropriate weights for combining individual networks using the criteria about minimization of sum of absolute prediction error is proposed. Application to real industrial data demonstrates that the polypropylene melt index can be successfully estimated using stacked neural networks. The results obtained demonstrate significant improvements in model accuracy, as a result of using stacked neural networks model, compared to using single neural network model.

An Improved RBF Neural Network for Short Term Load Forecasting

2014 ◽  
Vol 1008-1009 ◽  
pp. 709-713 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuang Li ◽  
Zhi Qiang Liang ◽  
Min You Chen
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Discriminant Function ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Rbf Neural Network ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Static Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Dynamic Neural Network ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting

Neural network is widely used in the load forecasting area,but the traditional methods of load forecasting usually base on static model,which cannot change as time goes on. And the accuracy is worse and worse. To solve the problem, a dynamic neural network model for load forecasting is proposed .By way of introduce Error discriminant function, to control the error of load forecasting and dynamically modify the predicting model. Through the contrast of the short-term load forecasting result based on static neural network model and dynamic neural network model proposed, the error of load forecasting is decrease effectively.

APPLYING NEURAL NETWORKS TO SOFTWARE RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT

2010 ◽  
Vol 17 (04) ◽  
pp. 313-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
NORMAN SCHNEIDEWIND
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Software Reliability ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Time To Failure ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Method Of Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Network Method

We adapt concepts from the field of neural networks to assess the reliability of software, employing cumulative failures, reliability, remaining failures, and time to failure metrics. In addition, the risk of not achieving reliability, remaining failure, and time to failure goals are assessed. The purpose of the assessment is to compare a criterion, derived from a neural network model, for estimating the parameters of software reliability metrics, with the method of maximum likelihood estimation. To our surprise the neural network method proved superior for all the reliability metrics that were assessed by virtue of yielding lower prediction error and risk. We also found that considerable adaptation of the neural network model was necessary to be meaningful for our application – only inputs, functions, neurons, weights, activation units, and outputs were required to characterize our application.

DYNAMIC OUTPUT FEEDBACK STABILIZATION FOR NONLINEAR SYSTEMS BASED ON STANDARD NEURAL NETWORK MODELS

2006 ◽  
Vol 16 (04) ◽  
pp. 305-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
MEIQIN LIU
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Nonlinear Systems ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Output Feedback ◽  
Control Design ◽  
Feedback Stabilization ◽  
Dynamic Output Feedback ◽  
Dynamic Output

A neural-model-based control design for some nonlinear systems is addressed. The design approach is to approximate the nonlinear systems with neural networks of which the activation functions satisfy the sector conditions. A novel neural network model termed standard neural network model (SNNM) is advanced for describing this class of approximating neural networks. Full-order dynamic output feedback control laws are then designed for the SNNMs with inputs and outputs to stabilize the closed-loop systems. The control design equations are shown to be a set of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) which can be easily solved by various convex optimization algorithms to determine the control signals. It is shown that most neural-network-based nonlinear systems can be transformed into input-output SNNMs to be stabilization synthesized in a unified way. Finally, some application examples are presented to illustrate the control design procedures.

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