scholarly journals Probabilistic modelling of rainfall induced landslide hazard assessment

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 725-766 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Kawagoe ◽  
S. Kazama ◽  
P. R. Sarukkalige

Abstract. To evaluate the frequency and distribution of landslides hazards over Japan, this study uses a probabilistic model based on multiple logistic regression analysis. Study particular concerns several important physical parameters such as hydraulic parameters, geographical parameters and the geological parameters which are considered to be influential in the occurrence of landslides. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that hydrological parameter (hydraulic gradient) is the most influential factor in the occurrence of landslides. Therefore, the hydraulic gradient is used as the main hydraulic parameter; dynamic factor which includes the effect of heavy rainfall and their return period. Using the constructed spatial data-sets, a multiple logistic regression model is applied and landslide susceptibility maps are produced showing the spatial-temporal distribution of landslide hazard susceptibility over Japan. To represent the susceptibility in different temporal scales, extreme precipitation in 5 years, 30 years, and 100 years return periods are used for the evaluation. The results show that the highest landslide hazard susceptibility exists in the mountain ranges on the western side of Japan (Japan Sea side), including the Hida and Kiso, Iide and the Asahi mountainous range, the south side of Chugoku mountainous range, the south side of Kyusu mountainous and the Dewa mountainous range and the Hokuriku region. The developed landslide hazard susceptibility maps in this study will assist authorities, policy makers and decision makers, who are responsible for infrastructural planning and development, as they can identify landslide-susceptible areas and thus decrease landslide damage through proper preparation.

2010 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1047-1061 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Kawagoe ◽  
S. Kazama ◽  
P. R. Sarukkalige

Abstract. To evaluate the frequency and distribution of landslides hazards over Japan, this study uses a probabilistic model based on multiple logistic regression analysis. Study particular concerns several important physical parameters such as hydraulic parameters, geographical parameters and the geological parameters which are considered to be influential in the occurrence of landslides. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that hydrological parameter (hydraulic gradient) is the most influential factor in the occurrence of landslides. Therefore, the hydraulic gradient is used as the main hydraulic parameter; dynamic factor which includes the effect of heavy rainfall and their return period. Using the constructed spatial data-sets, a multiple logistic regression model is applied and landslide hazard probability maps are produced showing the spatial-temporal distribution of landslide hazard probability over Japan. To represent the landslide hazard in different temporal scales, extreme precipitation in 5 years, 30 years, and 100 years return periods are used for the evaluation. The results show that the highest landslide hazard probability exists in the mountain ranges on the western side of Japan (Japan Sea side), including the Hida and Kiso, Iide and the Asahi mountainous range, the south side of Chugoku mountainous range, the south side of Kyusu mountainous and the Dewa mountainous range and the Hokuriku region. The developed landslide hazard probability maps in this study will assist authorities, policy makers and decision makers, who are responsible for infrastructural planning and development, as they can identify landslide-susceptible areas and thus decrease landslide damage through proper preparation.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Andrew Styche

<p>1. Sulphur-crested cockatoos (Cacatua galerita) have colonised several sites in the North Island and on Banks Peninsula in the South Island of New Zealand. Galah (C. roseicapilla) have established in the South Auckland Region of the North Island. Original colonies are thought to have established from escaped cage birds, but the origin of populations of C. galerita that have appeared over more recent years is uncertain. 2. The distribution of C. galerita in Australia and New Zealand was modelled against environmental factors using multiple logistic regression to determine which characteristics of its environment are important in defining their distribution. 3. While C. galerita distribution in New Zealand falls within the range of ambient temperature experienced by this species in Australia, models of distribution produced from multiple logistic regression revealed temperature was not the only characteristic important in defining distribution. Instead distribution was best defined by a combination of temperature, availability of cultivated land and in New Zealand the presence of open woodland vegetation. 4. Observed daily and seasonal differences in the movement, time-activity budget, habitat use and diet of cockatoos in a population stronghold (Turakina Valley, Manawatu-Wanganui Region) were used to provide insight into the relationship between the environmental factors characteristic of C. galerita distribution and the range of this species. 5. Distribution of C. galerita was strongly influenced by the availability of crop seed mostly maize (Zea maize). In winter groups of C. galerita from large area (probably hundreds of square kilometres) congregated into a large flock, roosting in a reserve immediately adjacent to fields of maize, their main food source at this time. By congregating in this area they reduced the amount of time needed to forage for food especially time spent flying (the most energetically costly behaviour). 6. Despite greater energetic demands in winter, C. galerita in the Turakina Valley decreased the proportion of time spent feeding, instead increasing time spent resting. This was attributed to feeding on a very abundant food (maize), and lower energy demands resulting from reduced time spent flying (possible because of maize) and in feather maintenance and social behaviours. 7. Native podocarp forest remnants provided most of the non-food resource requirements of C. galerita, such as day-time refuges and nest and nocturnal roost sites. Most of their food was obtained from introduced vegetation available on the adjacent farmland, particularly cereal crops, grasses and exotic conifers. In contrast, sympatric populations of tui (Prosthemadera novaeseelandiae), bellbirds (Anthornis melanura and New Zealand pigeons (Hemiphaga novaeseelandiae) were more arboreal and preferentially foraged in native forest and exotic angiosperm tree species. 8. Freshly fallen leaves and green branches (greenfall) were collected from 100 plots in a podocarp-broadleaf forest in the Turakina Valley. Greenfall was categorised as "unexplained" or "cockatoo-caused". Leaves and branches (0-600mm) from 41 species or species groups were represented in the greenfall. Ten of these species also contributed to cockatoo-caused greenfall, including all four podocarp species and all of the epiphytic angiosperms present in the reserve. 9. Annual inputs of cockatoo-caused greenfall were compared with total foliar litter-fall measured in similar podocarp-broadleaf forests in the Orongorongo Valley, lower North Island. Although cockatoo-caused greenfall contributed only 0.08% of avenge litterfall, their impact was substantially greater for particular species, including > 5% of literfall recorded for Dacrydium cupressinum. 10. Defoliation of native tree and epiphyte species by C. galerita is considered to have potential consequences for forest dynamics, resulting in an increase in understorey vegetation, and could cause reductions in populations of some species (particularly D. cupressinum and rarer epiphytes).</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 279
Author(s):  
Yuni Dwi Hastuti ◽  
Shofa Chasani ◽  
Muhammad Hasib Ardani

Patient safety is a global issue and a top priority in hospitals. Incidence of unexpected events varies significantly in Indonesia. Nurses’ compliance is an essential factor in the successful implementation of patient safety policies in hospitals. This study aimed to determine the factors influencing nurses’ compliance with patient safety policies in inpatient units of Dr. Kariadi general hospital, Semarang. This study employed a descriptive correlational design with a cross-sectional approach. The samples were 220 staff nurses recruited using a proportional random sampling technique. The data were collected using a questionnaire developed by the researchers and analyzed using the univariate analysis, Chi-Square test, and multivariate multiple logistic regression test. Results of the bivariate analysis showed that there were effects of supervision (p=0.038; OR=1.828), the character of authority figures (p=0.001; OR=2.648), and non-compliant colleagues (p=0.0001; OR=2.899) on nurses’ compliance with patient safety policies. However, gender (p=0.691), working environment (p=0.891), and contradictory orders (p=0.243) were found to have no effects on nurses’ compliance with patient safety policies. Results of multivariate analysis using a multiple logistic regression analysis showed that non-compliant colleagues were the most influential factor of nurses’ compliance with patient safety policies in the hospital. There were effects of supervision, the character of authority figures, and non-compliant colleagues on nurses’ compliance with patient safety policies. In contrast, gender, working environment, and contradictory orders showed no effects on nurses’ compliance. Non-compliant colleagues had the most effect on nurses’ compliance.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Andrew Styche

<p>1. Sulphur-crested cockatoos (Cacatua galerita) have colonised several sites in the North Island and on Banks Peninsula in the South Island of New Zealand. Galah (C. roseicapilla) have established in the South Auckland Region of the North Island. Original colonies are thought to have established from escaped cage birds, but the origin of populations of C. galerita that have appeared over more recent years is uncertain. 2. The distribution of C. galerita in Australia and New Zealand was modelled against environmental factors using multiple logistic regression to determine which characteristics of its environment are important in defining their distribution. 3. While C. galerita distribution in New Zealand falls within the range of ambient temperature experienced by this species in Australia, models of distribution produced from multiple logistic regression revealed temperature was not the only characteristic important in defining distribution. Instead distribution was best defined by a combination of temperature, availability of cultivated land and in New Zealand the presence of open woodland vegetation. 4. Observed daily and seasonal differences in the movement, time-activity budget, habitat use and diet of cockatoos in a population stronghold (Turakina Valley, Manawatu-Wanganui Region) were used to provide insight into the relationship between the environmental factors characteristic of C. galerita distribution and the range of this species. 5. Distribution of C. galerita was strongly influenced by the availability of crop seed mostly maize (Zea maize). In winter groups of C. galerita from large area (probably hundreds of square kilometres) congregated into a large flock, roosting in a reserve immediately adjacent to fields of maize, their main food source at this time. By congregating in this area they reduced the amount of time needed to forage for food especially time spent flying (the most energetically costly behaviour). 6. Despite greater energetic demands in winter, C. galerita in the Turakina Valley decreased the proportion of time spent feeding, instead increasing time spent resting. This was attributed to feeding on a very abundant food (maize), and lower energy demands resulting from reduced time spent flying (possible because of maize) and in feather maintenance and social behaviours. 7. Native podocarp forest remnants provided most of the non-food resource requirements of C. galerita, such as day-time refuges and nest and nocturnal roost sites. Most of their food was obtained from introduced vegetation available on the adjacent farmland, particularly cereal crops, grasses and exotic conifers. In contrast, sympatric populations of tui (Prosthemadera novaeseelandiae), bellbirds (Anthornis melanura and New Zealand pigeons (Hemiphaga novaeseelandiae) were more arboreal and preferentially foraged in native forest and exotic angiosperm tree species. 8. Freshly fallen leaves and green branches (greenfall) were collected from 100 plots in a podocarp-broadleaf forest in the Turakina Valley. Greenfall was categorised as "unexplained" or "cockatoo-caused". Leaves and branches (0-600mm) from 41 species or species groups were represented in the greenfall. Ten of these species also contributed to cockatoo-caused greenfall, including all four podocarp species and all of the epiphytic angiosperms present in the reserve. 9. Annual inputs of cockatoo-caused greenfall were compared with total foliar litter-fall measured in similar podocarp-broadleaf forests in the Orongorongo Valley, lower North Island. Although cockatoo-caused greenfall contributed only 0.08% of avenge litterfall, their impact was substantially greater for particular species, including > 5% of literfall recorded for Dacrydium cupressinum. 10. Defoliation of native tree and epiphyte species by C. galerita is considered to have potential consequences for forest dynamics, resulting in an increase in understorey vegetation, and could cause reductions in populations of some species (particularly D. cupressinum and rarer epiphytes).</p>


1980 ◽  
Vol 19 (01) ◽  
pp. 42-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. W. Brown ◽  
C. Engelhard ◽  
J. Haipern ◽  
J. F. Fries ◽  
L. S. Coles

In solving a clinical problem of diagnosis, prognosis, or treatment choice, a physician must select from among a large group of possible tests. In general, an ordering exists specifying which tests are most valuable in providing relevant information concerning the problem on hand. The computer program package to be described (MW) extracts appropriate data from the ARAMIS data banks and then analyzes the data by stepwise logistic regression. A binary outcome (diagnosis, prognostic event, or treatment response) is sequentially associated with possible tests, and the most powerful combination of tests is identified. For example, the most valuable predictor variable of early mortality in SLE is proteinuria, followed sequentially by anemia and absence of arthritis. Experience with these techniques suggests : 1. optimal certainty is usually reached after only three or four tests; 2. several different test sequences may lead to the same level of certainty; 3. diagnosis may usually be ascertained with greater certainty than prognosis; 4. many medical problems contain considerable non-reducible uncertainty; 5. a relatively small group of tests are typically found among the most powerful; 6. results are consistent across several patient populations; 7. results are largely independent of the particular statistic employed. These observations suggest strategies for maximizing information while minimizing risk and expense.


2020 ◽  
Vol 73 (4) ◽  
pp. 539-550
Author(s):  
Li Yong-Sŏng ◽  
Park Won Kil
Keyword(s):  

AbstractThis paper attempts to give new explanation for the expression agrïp yok bol- occurring in 9th line of the south side of the Bilgä Kagan Inscription. After a thorough survey of former research and several Chinese sources, the authors came to the conclusion that this expression must be a euphemistic expression for being beheaded in a battle. The authors found also that kog säŋün was Guo Yingjie 郭英傑. In sum, the sentence in question is to be read as ulug oglum agrïp yok bolča kog säŋünüg balbal tikä bertim ‘When my oldest son died of a disease, I readily erected General Kog as a balbal (for him).’ The expression agrïp yok bol- is to be regarded as a euphemistic expression for being beheaded in a battle.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document