Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce accurate probabilistic forecasts
2012 ◽
Vol 9
(1)
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pp. 595-627
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Keyword(s):
Abstract. This paper considers the correction of deterministic forecasts given by a flood forecasting model. A stochastic correction based on the evolution of an adaptive, multiplicative, gain is presented. A number of models for the evolution of the gain are considered and the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts assessed. The techniques presented offer, in certain situations, an effective and computationally efficient method for providing probabilistic forecasts based on existing flood forecasting system output.
2012 ◽
Vol 16
(8)
◽
pp. 2783-2799
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2021 ◽
Vol 21
(8)
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pp. 2523-2541
2020 ◽
Keyword(s):
2015 ◽
Vol 19
(8)
◽
pp. 3365-3385
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Keyword(s):
1990 ◽
Vol 15
(1)
◽
pp. 24-39