scholarly journals A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 3365-3385 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Thiemig ◽  
B. Bisselink ◽  
F. Pappenberger ◽  
J. Thielen
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Practical Implication ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Flood Forecast ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Pan African ◽  
Forecasting System

Abstract. The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium- to large-scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, the meteorological ensemble predictions by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Ranged Weather Forecasts) and critical hydrological thresholds. In this paper, the predictive capability is investigated in a hindcast mode, by reproducing hydrological predictions for the year 2003 when important floods were observed. Results were verified by ground measurements of 36 sub-catchments as well as by reports of various flood archives. Results showed that AFFS detected around 70 % of the reported flood events correctly. In particular, the system showed good performance in predicting riverine flood events of long duration (> 1 week) and large affected areas (> 10 000 km2) well in advance, whereas AFFS showed limitations for small-scale and short duration flood events. The case study for the flood event in March 2003 in the Sabi Basin (Zimbabwe) illustrated the good performance of AFFS in forecasting timing and severity of the floods, gave an example of the clear and concise output products, and showed that the system is capable of producing flood warnings even in ungauged river basins. Hence, from a technical perspective, AFFS shows a large potential as an operational pan-African flood forecasting system, although issues related to the practical implication will still need to be investigated.

scholarly journals A pan-African Flood Forecasting System

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 5559-5597 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Thiemig ◽  
B. Bisselink ◽  
F. Pappenberger ◽  
J. Thielen
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Practical Implication ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Pan African ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Forecasting System

Abstract. The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium- to large-scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, the meteorological ensemble predictions of the ECMWF and critical hydrological thresholds. In this paper the predictive capability is investigated in a hindcast mode, by reproducing hydrological predictions for the year 2003 where important floods were observed. Results were verified with ground measurements of 36 subcatchments as well as with reports of various flood archives. Results showed that AFFS detected around 70% of the reported flood events correctly. In particular, the system showed good performance in predicting riverine flood events of long duration (>1 week) and large affected areas (>10 000 km2) well in advance, whereas AFFS showed limitations for small-scale and short duration flood events. The case study for "Save flooding" illustrated the good performance of AFFS in forecasting timing and severity of the floods, gave an example of the clear and concise output products, and showed that the system is capable of producing flood warnings even in ungauged river basins. Hence, from a technical perspective, AFFS shows a large potential as an operational pan-African flood forecasting system, although issues related to the practical implication will still need to be investigated.

The Applications of the Flood Forecast System Based on OGSA-DAI

2011 ◽  
Vol 225-226 ◽  
pp. 798-801
Author(s):  
Ya Qing Shi ◽  
Yin Jun He
Keyword(s):  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
System Model ◽  
Flood Forecast ◽  
Grid Services ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Forecasting System

Combined with the grid services technique, this paper analyzed the realization of flood forecasting system model based on OGSA-DAI and provided the distributed calculation platform for the flood forecasting deployment on Internet.

scholarly journals Implementation and validation of a coastal forecasting system for wind waves in the Mediterranean Sea

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 485-494 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Inghilesi ◽  
F. Catini ◽  
G. Bellotti ◽  
L. Franco ◽  
A. Orasi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Coastal Area ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Wind Waves ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Tyrrhenian Sea ◽  
Coastal System ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Propagation Of Waves

Abstract. A coastal forecasting system was implemented to provide wind wave forecasts over the whole Mediterranean Sea area, and with the added capability to focus on selected coastal areas. The goal of the system was to achieve a representation of the small-scale coastal processes influencing the propagation of waves towards the coasts. The system was based on a chain of nested wave models and adopted the WAve Model (WAM) to analyse the large-scale, deep-sea propagation of waves; and the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) to simulate waves in key coastal areas. Regional intermediate-scale WAM grids were introduced to bridge the gap between the large-scale and each coastal area. Even applying two consecutive nestings (Mediterranean grid → regional grid → coastal grid), a very high resolution was still required for the large scale WAM implementation in order to get a final resolution of about 400 m on the shores. In this study three regional areas in the Tyrrhenian Sea were selected, with a single coastal area embedded in each of them. The number of regional and coastal grids in the system could easily be modified without significantly affecting the efficiency of the system. The coastal system was tested in three Italian coastal regions in order to optimize the numerical parameters and to check the results in orographically complex zones for which wave records were available. Fifteen storm events in the period 2004–2009 were considered.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Heavy Precipitation Forecasts to Small Modifications of Large-Scale Weather Patterns for the Elbe River

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 770-780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingo Schlüter ◽  
Gerd Schädler
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Synoptic Situation ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Extreme flood events are caused by long-lasting and/or intensive precipitation. The detailed knowledge of the distribution, intensity, and spatiotemporal variability of precipitation is, therefore, a prerequisite for hydrological flood modeling and flood risk management. For hydrological modeling, temporal and spatial high-resolution precipitation data can be provided by meteorological models. This study deals with the question of how small changes in the synoptic situation affect the characteristics of extreme forecasts. For that purpose, two historic extreme precipitation events were hindcasted using the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling (COSMO) model of the German Weather Service (DWD) with different grid resolutions (28, 7, and 2.8 km), where the domains with finer resolutions were nested into the ones with coarser resolution. The results show that the model is capable of simulating such extreme precipitation events in a satisfactory way. To assess the impact of small changes in the synoptic situations on extreme precipitation events, the large-scale atmospheric fields were shifted to north, south, east, and west with respect to the orography by about 28 and 56 km, respectively, in one series of runs while in another series, the relative humidity and temperature were increased to modify the amount of precipitable water. Both series were performed for the Elbe flood events in August 2002 and January 2003, corresponding to two very different synoptic situations. The results show that the modeled precipitation can be quite sensitive to small changes of the synoptic situation with changes in the order of 20% for the maximum daily precipitation and that the types of synoptic situations play an important role. While van Bebber weather conditions, of Mediterranean origin, were quite sensitive to modifications, more homogeneous weather patterns were less sensitive.

Flood Inundation Simulations based on GSMaP Satellite Rainfall Data in Jakarta, Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bambang Adhi Priyambodoho ◽  
Shuichi Kure ◽  
Ryuusei Yagi ◽  
Nurul Fajar Januriyadi
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Flood Inundation ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Concentration Time ◽  
Gauge Data ◽  
Forecasting System

Abstract Jakarta is the capital of Indonesia and is considered as one of the most vulnerable cities to climate-related disasters, including flooding, sea-level rise, and storm surge, in the world. Therefore, the development of a flood-forecasting system for Jakarta is crucial. However, the accurate prediction of flooding in Jakarta is challenging because of the rapid flood-concentration time in highly urbanized basins and the shortage of rainfall data in poorly gauged areas. The aim of this study is to simulate flood inundation that occurred in recent years using global satellite mapping of precipitation (GSMaP) products. The GSMaP products (NRT and Gauge V7) were evaluated and compared with the observation data obtained hourly from five ground stations in the Ciliwung River Basin. In addition, a rainfall-runoff and flood inundation model were applied to the target basin. The results of the analysis showed that the GSMaP Gauge data were more accurate than the GSMaP NRT data. However, the GSMaP Gauge could not be used to provide real-time rainfall data and is, therefore, inadequate for real-time flood forecasting. We conclude that the GSMaP Gauge is suitable for replicating past flood events, but it is challenging to use the GSMaP NRT for real-time flood forecasting in Jakarta.

Development of a flood forecasting system using IFAS: a case study of scarcely gauged Jhelum and Chenab river basins

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aamir Shahzad ◽  
Hamza Farooq Gabriel ◽  
Sajjad Haider ◽  
Ammara Mubeen ◽  
Muhammad Junaid Siddiqui
Keyword(s):  
River Basins ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Chenab River

Small-Scale Science to Large-Scale Profession

2000 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 396-398
Author(s):  
Roger Smith
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Small Scale

Development of Physics Learning Module Based on Guided Inquiry with Light Wave Material in Class XI of Senior High School

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Evi Rahmawati ◽  
Irnin Agustina Dwi Astuti ◽  
N Nurhayati
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Learning Strategy ◽  
Student Response ◽  
Average Score ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Design Development ◽  
Teacher Response ◽  
Student Responses ◽  
Analysis Design ◽  
Scientific Skills

IPA Integrated is a place for students to study themselves and the surrounding environment applied in daily life. Integrated IPA Learning provides a direct experience to students through the use and development of scientific skills and attitudes. The importance of integrated IPA requires to pack learning well, integrated IPA integration with the preparation of modules combined with learning strategy can maximize the learning process in school. In SMP 209 Jakarta, the value of the integrated IPA is obtained from 34 students there are 10 students completed and 24 students are not complete because they get the value below the KKM of 68. This research is a development study with the development model of ADDIE (Analysis, Design, Development, Implementation, and Evaluation). The use of KPS-based integrated IPA modules (Science Process sSkills) on the theme of rainbow phenomenon obtained by media expert validation results with an average score of 84.38%, average material expert 82.18%, average linguist 75.37%. So the average of all aspects obtained by 80.55% is worth using and tested to students. The results of the teacher response obtained 88.69% value with excellent criteria. Student responses on a small scale acquired an average score of 85.19% with highly agreed criteria and on the large-scale student response gained a yield of 86.44% with very agreed criteria. So the module can be concluded receiving a good response by the teacher and students.

Planetary gentrification and urban (re)development

2019 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Loretta Lees
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Urban Redevelopment ◽  
Urban Transformation ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Income Groups ◽  
Low Income Groups

Abstract Gentrification is no-longer, if it ever was, a small scale process of urban transformation. Gentrification globally is more often practised as large scale urban redevelopment. It is state-led or state-induced. The results are clear – the displacement and disenfranchisement of low income groups in favour of wealthier in-movers. So, why has gentrification come to dominate policy making worldwide and what can be done about it?

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION OF CA DONG PEOPLE IN RESETTLEMENT AREA OF TRANH RIVER HYDROPOWER NUMBER 2: CURRENT SITUATION AND IMPACT FACTORS

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bùi Thị Bích Lan
Keyword(s):  
Social Relations ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
Impact Factors ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Scale Production ◽  
Technical Application ◽  
Production Models ◽  
Role Of The State

In Vietnam, the construction of hydropower projects has contributed significantly in the cause of industrialization and modernization of the country. The place where hydropower projects are built is mostly inhabited by ethnic minorities - communities that rely primarily on land, a very important source of livelihood security. In the context of the lack of common productive land in resettlement areas, the orientation for agricultural production is to promote indigenous knowledge combined with increasing scientific and technical application; shifting from small-scale production practices to large-scale commodity production. However, the research results of this article show that many obstacles in the transition process are being posed such as limitations on natural resources, traditional production thinking or the suitability and effectiveness of scientific - technical application models. When agricultural production does not ensure food security, a number of implications for people’s lives are increasingly evident, such as poverty, preserving cultural identity, social relations and resource protection. Since then, it has set the role of the State in researching and building appropriate agricultural production models to exploit local strengths and ensure sustainability.

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