scholarly journals Comparative flood damage model assessment: towards a European approach

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3733-3752 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Jongman ◽  
H. Kreibich ◽  
H. Apel ◽  
J. I. Barredo ◽  
P. D. Bates ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Care Needs ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Damage Models ◽  
European Approach ◽  
Asset Values

Abstract. There is a wide variety of flood damage models in use internationally, differing substantially in their approaches and economic estimates. Since these models are being used more and more as a basis for investment and planning decisions on an increasingly large scale, there is a need to reduce the uncertainties involved and develop a harmonised European approach, in particular with respect to the EU Flood Risks Directive. In this paper we present a qualitative and quantitative assessment of seven flood damage models, using two case studies of past flood events in Germany and the United Kingdom. The qualitative analysis shows that modelling approaches vary strongly, and that current methodologies for estimating infrastructural damage are not as well developed as methodologies for the estimation of damage to buildings. The quantitative results show that the model outcomes are very sensitive to uncertainty in both vulnerability (i.e. depth–damage functions) and exposure (i.e. asset values), whereby the first has a larger effect than the latter. We conclude that care needs to be taken when using aggregated land use data for flood risk assessment, and that it is essential to adjust asset values to the regional economic situation and property characteristics. We call for the development of a flexible but consistent European framework that applies best practice from existing models while providing room for including necessary regional adjustments.

scholarly journals INSYDE: a synthetic, probabilistic flood damage model based on explicit cost analysis

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Dottori ◽  
Rui Figueiredo ◽  
Mario Martina ◽  
Daniela Molinari ◽  
Anna Rita Scorzini
Keyword(s):  
Damage Assessment ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Physical Damage ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Technical Literature ◽  
Actual Knowledge ◽  
Damage Models ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Risk Assessment And Management

Abstract. Methodologies to estimate economic flood damages are increasingly important for flood risk assessment and management. In this work, we present a new synthetic flood damage model based on a component-by-component analysis of physical damage to buildings. The damage functions are designed using an expert-based approach with the support of existing scientific and technical literature, and have been calibrated with loss adjustment studies and damage surveys carried out for past flood events in Italy. The model structure is designed to be transparent and flexible, and therefore it can be applied in different geographical contexts and adapted to the actual knowledge of hazard and vulnerability variables. The model has been tested in a recent flood event in Northern Italy. Validation results provided good estimates of post-event damages, with better performances than most damage models available in the literature. In addition, a local sensitivity analysis has been performed, in order to identify the hazard variables that have more influence on damage assessment results.

scholarly journals INSYDE-BE: Adaptation of the INSYDE model to the Walloon Region (Belgium)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Rita Scorzini ◽  
Benjamin Dewals ◽  
Daniela Rodriguez Castro ◽  
Pierre Archambeau ◽  
Daniela Molinari
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Original Model ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Residential Sector ◽  
Damage Models ◽  
Similarities And Differences ◽  
Walloon Region

Abstract. The spatial transfer of flood damage models among regions and countries is a challenging but unavoidable approach, for performing flood risk assessments in data and model scarce regions. In these cases, similarities and differences between the contexts of application should be considered to obtain reliable damage estimations and, in some cases, the adaptation of the original model to the new conditions is required. This study exemplifies a replicable procedure for the adaptation to the Belgian context of a multi-variable, synthetic flood damage model for the residential sector originally developed for Italy (INSYDE). The study illustrates necessary amendments in model assumptions, especially regarding input default values for the hazard and building parameters and damage functions describing the modelled damage mechanisms.

scholarly journals INSYDE: a synthetic, probabilistic flood damage model based on explicit cost analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 2577-2591 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Dottori ◽  
Rui Figueiredo ◽  
Mario L. V. Martina ◽  
Daniela Molinari ◽  
Anna Rita Scorzini
Keyword(s):  
Damage Assessment ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Physical Damage ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Technical Literature ◽  
Actual Knowledge ◽  
Damage Models ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Risk Assessment And Management

Abstract. Methodologies to estimate economic flood damages are increasingly important for flood risk assessment and management. In this work, we present a new synthetic flood damage model based on a component-by-component analysis of physical damage to buildings. The damage functions are designed using an expert-based approach with the support of existing scientific and technical literature, loss adjustment studies, and damage surveys carried out for past flood events in Italy. The model structure is designed to be transparent and flexible, and therefore it can be applied in different geographical contexts and adapted to the actual knowledge of hazard and vulnerability variables. The model has been tested in a recent flood event in northern Italy. Validation results provided good estimates of post-event damages, with similar or superior performances when compared with other damage models available in the literature. In addition, a local sensitivity analysis was performed in order to identify the hazard variables that have more influence on damage assessment results.

scholarly journals Large-scale application of the flood damage model RAilway Infrastructure Loss (RAIL)

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. 2357-2371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patric Kellermann ◽  
Christine Schönberger ◽  
Annegret H. Thieken
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Structural Damage ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Railway Infrastructure ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Experience has shown that river floods can significantly hamper the reliability of railway networks and cause extensive structural damage and disruption. As a result, the national railway operator in Austria had to cope with financial losses of more than EUR 100 million due to flooding in recent years. Comprehensive information on potential flood risk hot spots as well as on expected flood damage in Austria is therefore needed for strategic flood risk management. In view of this, the flood damage model RAIL (RAilway Infrastructure Loss) was applied to estimate (1) the expected structural flood damage and (2) the resulting repair costs of railway infrastructure due to a 30-, 100- and 300-year flood in the Austrian Mur River catchment. The results were then used to calculate the expected annual damage of the railway subnetwork and subsequently analysed in terms of their sensitivity to key model assumptions. Additionally, the impact of risk aversion on the estimates was investigated, and the overall results were briefly discussed against the background of climate change and possibly resulting changes in flood risk. The findings indicate that the RAIL model is capable of supporting decision-making in risk management by providing comprehensive risk information on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that an increased risk aversion of the railway operator has a marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies.

scholarly journals How reliable are projections of future flood damage?

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3293-3306 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Bubeck ◽  
H. de Moel ◽  
L. M. Bouwer ◽  
J. C. J. H. Aerts
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Future Research ◽  
River Rhine ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Damage Modelling ◽  
Asset Values ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Modelling Approaches

Abstract. Flood damage modelling is an important component in flood risk management, and several studies have investigated the possible range of flood damage in the coming decades. Generally, flood damage assessments are still characterized by considerable uncertainties in stage-damage functions and methodological differences in estimating exposed asset values. The high variance that is commonly associated with absolute flood damage assessments is the reason for the present study that investigates the reliability of estimates of relative changes in the development of potential flood damage. While studies that estimate (relative) changes in flood damage over time usually address uncertainties resulting from different projections (e.g. land-use characteristics), the influence of different flood damage modelling approaches on estimates of relative changes in the development of flood damage is largely unknown. In this paper, we evaluate the reliability of estimates of relative changes in flood damage along the river Rhine between 1990 and 2030 in terms of different flood-damage modelling approaches. The results show that relative estimates of flood damage developments differ by a factor of 1.4. These variations, which result from the application of different modelling approaches, are considerably smaller than differences between the approaches in terms of absolute damage estimates (by a factor of 3.5 to 3.8), or than differences resulting from land-use projections (by a factor of 3). The differences that exist when estimating relative changes principally depend on the differences in damage functions. In order to improve the reliability of relative estimates of changes in the development of potential flood damage, future research should focus on reducing the uncertainties related to damage functions.

scholarly journals Large-scale application of the flood damage model Railway Infrastructure Loss (RAIL)

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patric Kellermann ◽  
Christine Schönberger ◽  
Annegret H. Thieken
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Structural Damage ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Railway Infrastructure ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Experience has shown that river floods can significantly hamper the reliability of railway networks and cause extensive structural damage and disruption. As a result, the national railway operator in Austria had to cope with financial losses of more than one hundred million euros due to flooding in recent years. Comprehensive information on potential flood risk hot spots as well as on expected flood damage in Austria is therefore needed for strategic flood risk management. In view of this, the flood damage model RAIL (RAilway Infrastructure Loss) was applied to estimate 1) the expected structural flood damage, and 2) the resulting repair costs of railway infrastructure due to a 30-year, 100-year and 300-year flood in the Austrian Mur River catchment. The results were then used to calculate the expected annual damage of the railway subnetwork and subsequently analysed in terms of their sensitivity to key model assumptions. Additionally, the impact of risk aversion on the estimates was investigated, and the overall results were briefly discussed against the background of climate change and possibly resulting changes in flood risk. The findings indicate that the RAIL model is capable of supporting decision-making in risk management by providing comprehensive risk information on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that an increased risk aversion of the railway operator has a marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies.

scholarly journals Tension-Compression Damage Model with Consistent Crack Bandwidths for Concrete Materials

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei He ◽  
Ying Xu ◽  
Yu Cheng ◽  
Peng-Fei Jia ◽  
Ting-Ting Fu
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Numerical Solutions ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Mesh Size ◽  
Irreversible Processes ◽  
Explicit Integration ◽  
Damage Models ◽  
Tension And Compression ◽  
Concrete Materials ◽  
Compression Damage

This paper proposes a tension-compression damage model for concrete materials, formulated within the framework of thermodynamics of irreversible processes. The aim of this work is to solve the following problems: the premature divergence of numerical solutions under general loading conditions due to the conflict of tensile and compressive damage bounding surfaces, which is a result of the application of the spectral decomposition method to distinguish tension and compression, and the unsatisfactory reproduction of distinct tension-compression behaviors of concrete by strain-driven damage models. The former is solved by the sign of the volumetric deformation, while the latter is solved via two separated dissipation mechanisms. Moreover, of specific interest is an improved solution to the problem of mesh-size dependency using consistent crack bandwidths, which takes into account situations with irregular meshes and arbitrary crack directions in the context of the crack band approach. The performance of the model is validated by the well-documented experimental data. The simplicity and the explicit integration of the constitutive equations render the model well suitable for large-scale computations.

scholarly journals Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Merz ◽  
H. Kreibich ◽  
U. Lall
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Damage Assessment ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Promising Alternative ◽  
Damage Models ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Flood Damage Assessment

Abstract. The usual approach for flood damage assessment consists of stage-damage functions which relate the relative or absolute damage for a certain class of objects to the inundation depth. Other characteristics of the flooding situation and of the flooded object are rarely taken into account, although flood damage is influenced by a variety of factors. We apply a group of data-mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, to flood damage assessment. A very comprehensive data set of more than 1000 records of direct building damage of private households in Germany is used. Each record contains details about a large variety of potential damage-influencing characteristics, such as hydrological and hydraulic aspects of the flooding situation, early warning and emergency measures undertaken, state of precaution of the household, building characteristics and socio-economic status of the household. Regression trees and bagging decision trees are used to select the more important damage-influencing variables and to derive multi-variate flood damage models. It is shown that these models outperform existing models, and that tree-structured models are a promising alternative to traditional damage models.

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