scholarly journals Calibration and evaluation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for improved wildland fire danger rating in the United Kingdom

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1217-1237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark C. de Jong ◽  
Martin J. Wooster ◽  
Karl Kitchen ◽  
Cathy Manley ◽  
Rob Gazzard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Rating Systems ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk

Abstract. Wildfires in the United Kingdom (UK) pose a threat to people, infrastructure and the natural environment. During periods of particularly fire-prone weather, wildfires can occur simultaneously across large areas, placing considerable stress upon the resources of fire and rescue services. Fire danger rating systems (FDRSs) attempt to anticipate periods of heightened fire risk, primarily for early-warning and preparedness purposes. The UK FDRS, termed the Met Office Fire Severity Index (MOFSI), is based on the Fire Weather Index (FWI) component of the Canadian Forest FWI System. The MOFSI currently provides daily operational mapping of landscape fire danger across England and Wales using a simple thresholding of the final FWI component of the Canadian FWI System. However, it is known that the system has scope for improvement. Here we explore a climatology of the six FWI System components across the UK (i.e. extending to Scotland and Northern Ireland), calculated from daily 2km × 2km gridded numerical weather prediction data and supplemented by long-term meteorological station observations. We used this climatology to develop a percentile-based calibration of the FWI System, optimised for UK conditions. We find this approach to be well justified, as the values of the "raw" uncalibrated FWI components corresponding to a very "extreme" (99th percentile) fire danger situation vary by more than an order of magnitude across the country. Therefore, a simple thresholding of the uncalibrated component values (as is currently applied in the MOFSI) may incur large errors of omission and commission with respect to the identification of periods of significantly elevated fire danger. We evaluate our approach to enhancing UK fire danger rating using records of wildfire occurrence and find that the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), Initial Spread Index (ISI) and FWI components of the FWI System generally have the greatest predictive skill for landscape fire activity across Great Britain, with performance varying seasonally and by land cover type. At the height of the most recent severe wildfire period in the UK (2 May 2011), 50 % of all wildfires occurred in areas where the FWI component exceeded the 99th percentile. When all wildfire events during the 2010–2012 period are considered, the 75th, 90th and 99th percentiles of at least one FWI component were exceeded during 85, 61 and 18 % of all wildfires respectively. Overall, we demonstrate the significant advantages of using a percentile-based calibration approach for classifying UK fire danger, and believe that our findings provide useful insights for future development of the current operational MOFSI UK FDRS.

scholarly journals Calibration and evaluation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for improved wildland fire danger rating in the UK

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (11) ◽  
pp. 6997-7051 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. C. De Jong ◽  
M. J. Wooster ◽  
K. Kitchen ◽  
C. Manley ◽  
R. Gazzard
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Simultaneous Occurrence ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Rating Systems ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
The Uk

Abstract. Wildfires in the United Kingdom (UK) can pose a threat to people, infrastructure and the natural environment (e.g. to the carbon in peat soils), and their simultaneous occurrence within and across UK regions can periodically place considerable stress upon the resources of Fire and Rescue Services. "Fire danger" rating systems (FDRS) attempt to anticipate periods of heightened fire risk, primarily for early-warning purposes. The UK FDRS, termed the Met Office Fire Severity Index (MOFSI) is based on the Fire Weather Index (FWI) component of the Canadian Forest FWI System. MOFSI currently provides operational mapping of landscape fire danger across England and Wales using a simple thresholding of the final FWI component of the Canadian System. Here we explore a climatology of the full set of FWI System components across the entire UK (i.e. extending to Scotland and Northern Ireland), calculated from daily 2 km gridded numerical weather prediction data, supplemented by meteorological station observations. We used this to develop a percentile-based calibration of the FWI System optimised for UK conditions. We find the calibration to be well justified, since for example the values of the "raw" uncalibrated FWI components corresponding to a very "extreme" (99th percentile) fire danger situation can vary by up to an order of magnitude across UK regions. Therefore, simple thresholding of the uncalibrated component values (as is currently applied) may be prone to large errors of omission and commission with respect to identifying periods of significantly elevated fire danger compared to "routine" variability. We evaluate our calibrated approach to UK fire danger rating against records of wildfire occurrence, and find that the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC), Initial Spread Index (ISI) and final FWI component of the FWI system generally have the greatest predictive skill for landscape fires in Great Britain, with performance varying seasonally and by land cover type. At the height of the most recent severe wildfire period in the UK (2 May 2011), 50 % of all wildfires occurred in areas where the FWI component exceeded the 99th percentile, and for each of the ten most serious wildfire events that occurred in the 2010–2012 period, at least one FWI component per event was found to surpass the 95th percentile. Overall, we demonstrate the significant advantages of using a calibrated, percentile-based approach for classifying UK fire danger, and believe our findings provide useful insights for any future redevelopment of the current operational UK FDRS.

scholarly journals Updated Operational Implementation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System in Ireland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Padraig Flattery ◽  
Klara Finkele ◽  
Paul Downes ◽  
Ferdia O'Leary ◽  
Ciaran Nugent
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Index System ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Energy Output ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index

<p>Since 2006 the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (FWI) has been used operationally at Met Éireann to predict the risk of forest fires in Ireland (Walsh, S, 2006). Although only around 11% or ca 770,000 ha of the total land area of Ireland is afforested, there are also large areas of open mountain and peatlands that are covered in grasses, dwarfshrub and larger woody shrub type vegetation which can provide ready fuel for spring wildfires, when suitable conditions arise. Following winter, much of this vegetation is either dead or has a very low live moisture content, and the flammability of this vegetation can be readily influenced by prevailing weather, most especially following prolonged dry periods. The Department of Agriculture, Food and Marine is the Forest Protection authority in Ireland and issues Fire Danger Notices as part of this work. These notices permit improved preparedness for fire responses and are based on information provided by Met Éireann on the current status of FWI and FWI components using observation data at synoptic stations and the predicted FWI for the next five days ahead based on numerical weather prediction input data.</p><p>The FWI is based on</p><ul><li>three different types of forest fuel, ie how quickly these dry out/get rewetted. These are the Fine Fuels Moisture Code (FFMC), the Duff Moisture Code (DMC) and the Drought Code (DC).</li> <li>components based on fire behaviour: the Initial Spread Index (ISI), the Build-up Index (BUI), and the Fire Weather Index (FWI) which represents fire intensity as energy output rate per unit length of fire front. It is then used to determine the Daily Severity Rating (DSR) of the fire danger. </li> </ul><p>Of these components, the FFMC and ISI components have been found to provide the most accurate indication of risk under Irish conditions, based on the fuels involved and ignition patterns observed to date.</p><p>The DSR was based on a climatology of 1971 to 2005 at the time of operational implantation of the FWI at Met Éireann. An updated climatology based on the new reference period of 1990 to 2020 will be shown as well as the change of the 98 percentiles of extreme rating using this new reference period.  </p><p><strong>Walsh, S.</strong> “Implementation in Ireland of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System.” In <em>Making Science Work on the Farm. A Workshop on Decision Support Systems for Irish Agriculture</em>, 120–126. Dublin: AGMET, 2007. </p>

scholarly journals Projection of Forest Fire Danger due to Climate Change in the French Mediterranean Region

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 4284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vassiliki Varela ◽  
Diamando Vlachogiannis ◽  
Athanasios Sfetsos ◽  
Stelios Karozis ◽  
Nadia Politi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Severity ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Future Time Period ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
Decision Support Process

Fire occurrence and behaviour in Mediterranean-type ecosystems strongly depend on the air temperature and wind conditions, the amount of fuel load and the drought conditions that drastically increase flammability, particularly during the summer period. In order to study the fire danger due to climate change for these ecosystems, the meteorologically based Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, which is part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), has been validated and recognized worldwide as one of the most trusted and important indicators for meteorological fire danger mapping. A number of FWI system components (Fire Weather Index, Drought Code, Initial Spread Index and Fire Severity Rating) were estimated and analysed in the current study for the Mediterranean area of France. Daily raster-based data-sets for the fire seasons (1st May–31st October) of a historic and a future time period were created for the study area based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, outputs of CNRM-SMHI and MPI-SMHI climate models. GIS spatial analyses were applied on the series of the derived daily raster maps in order to provide a number of output maps for the study area. The results portray various levels of changes in fire danger, in the near future, according to the examined indices. Number of days with high and very high FWI values were found to be doubled compared to the historical period, in particular in areas of the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (PACA) region and Corsica. The areas with high Initial Spread Index and Seasonal Spread Index values increased as well, forming compact zones of high fire danger in the southern part of the study area, while the Drought Code index did not show remarkable changes. The current study on the evolution of spatial and temporal distribution of forest fire danger due to climate change can provide important knowledge to the decision support process for prevention and management policies of forest fires both at a national and EU level.

Wildfires and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index system for the Daxing'anling region of China

2011 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 963 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaorui Tian ◽  
Douglas J. McRae ◽  
Jizhong Jin ◽  
Lifu Shu ◽  
Fengjun Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Coniferous Forest ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index

The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) system was evaluated for the Daxing'anling region of northern China for the 1987–2006 fire seasons. The FWI system reflected the regional fire danger and could be effectively used there in wildfire management. The various FWI system components were classified into classes (i.e. low to extreme) for fire conditions found in the region. A total of 81.1% of the fires occurred in the high, very high and extreme fire danger classes, in which 73.9% of the fires occurred in the spring (0.1, 9.5, 33.3 and 33.1% in March, April, May and June). Large wildfires greater than 200 ha in area (16.7% of the total) burnt 99.2% of the total burnt area. Lightning was the main ignition source for 57.1% of the total fires. Result show that forest fires mainly occurred in deciduous coniferous forest (61.3%), grass (23.9%) and deciduous broad leaved forest (8.0%). A bimodal fire season was detected, with peaks in May and October. The components of FWI system were good indicators of fire danger in the Daxing'anling region of China and could be used to build a working fire danger rating system for the region.

A Study on the Interpolation of Fire Danger Using Radar Precipitation Estimates

1998 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 217 ◽  
Author(s):  
MD Flannigan ◽  
BM Wotton ◽  
S Ziga
Keyword(s):  
Index System ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
The Other ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Variables ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Weather Stations

In Canada, many fire management agencies interpolate indexes of the Fire Weather Index System to estimate the fire danger between weather stations. Difficulties with interpolation arise because summer precipitation can be highly variable over short distances. This variability hinders the usefulness of interpolating precipitation, which is one of the inputs for the Fire Weather Index System. Precipitation estimates from the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service radar at Upsala, Ontario, were used to determine if this will enable a more accurate measure of the fire danger over the region. Three methods of interpolation of the fire danger between weather stations were compared: first, the standard practice of interpolating fire weather indexes from weather stations to any specified location; second, interpolating the weather variables, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation from the weather station to any specified site and then calculating the fire weather indexes; third, interpolating weather variables as in Method 2 above except using the precipitation estimate from the radar and then calculating the fire weather indexes for any specified site. Overall, results indicate that the standard procedure of interpolating the fire weather indexes performs better than the other two methods. However, there are indexes where the other methods perform best (e.g., the fine fuel moisture code is best determined by using the radar precipitation estimation method). Fire management agencies should continue to use the standard practice of interpolating fire weather indexes to estimate fire danger between weather stations. Factors influencing the performance of the radar estimated precipitation method of estimating fire danger are discussed along with potential application of precipitation radar for fire management purposes.

scholarly journals Variation in the Canadian Fire Weather Index Thresholds for Increasingly Larger Fires in Portugal

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 838 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernandes
Keyword(s):  
Fire Management ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Size ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
North Central ◽  
Forest Fire Management

Forest fire management relies on the fire danger rating to optimize its suite of activities. Limiting fire size is the fire management target whenever minimizing burned area is the primary goal, such as in the Mediterranean Basin. Within the region, wildfire incidence is especially acute in Portugal, a country where fire-influencing anthropogenic and landscape features vary markedly within a relatively small area. This study establishes daily fire weather thresholds associated to transitions to increasingly larger fires for individual Portuguese regions (2001–2011 period), using the national wildfire and Canadian fire weather index (FWI) databases and logistic regression. FWI thresholds variation in relation to population density, topography, land cover, and net primary production (NPP) metrics is examined through regression and cluster analysis. Larger fires occur under increasingly higher fire danger. Resistance to fire spread (the fire-size FWI thresholds) varies regionally following biophysical gradients, and decreases under more complex topography and when NPP and occupation by flammable forest or by shrubland increase. Three main clusters synthesize these relationships and roughly coincide with the western north-central, eastern north-central and southern parts of the country. Quantification of fire-weather relationships can be improved through additional variables and analysis at other spatial scales.

Reanalysis of ECMWF data for updating the Fire Weather Index for the Indonesia Fire Danger Rating System (InaFDRS)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andri Purwandani ◽  
Marina C. G. Frederik ◽  
Reni Sulistyowati ◽  
Lena Sumargana ◽  
Fanny Meliani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fire Danger ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Fire Danger Rating System

Evaluation of ERS SAR data for prediction of fire danger in a Boreal region

1999 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura L. Bourgeau-Chavez ◽  
Eric S. Kasischke ◽  
Mark D. Rutherford
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Black Spruce ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Multilinear Regression ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Sar Data ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
In Fire

Research was conducted to determine the utility of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data for measuring the fuel moisture status of boreal forests as reflected in Fire Weather Index Codes. Three years (May to August 1992–1995) of SAR data from the European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS) were analysed over the 1990 Tok Alaska burned and adjacent unburned black spruce forests. Corresponding Fire Weather Index Codes of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System were obtained from Tok Area Forestry, Station number 500720. Strong relationships were expected between the SAR data and fire codes because of the dependence of ERS SAR backscatter on the moisture status of forests and exposed surfaces (burn scars). Astepwise multilinear regression procedure was used to analyse the relationships. Three statistically significant multilinear regression models resulted from this analysis procedure. The models developed show there is potential for using ERS SAR backscatter to generate indicators that are related to Fire Weather Index, Duff Moisture Code, and Drought Code. This research could lead to the ability for remote prediction of fire danger over large regions at relatively fine spatial resolution with minimal weather information.

A study of interpolation methods for forest fire danger rating in Canada

1989 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1059-1066 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. D. Flannigan ◽  
B. M. Wotton
Keyword(s):  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Control ◽  
Weather Index ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Interpolation Methods ◽  
Variable Nature

Canadian fire control agencies use either simple interpolation methods or none at all in estimating fire danger between weather stations. We compare several methods of interpolation and use the fire weather index in the North Central Region of Ontario as a case study. Our work shows that the second order least square polynomial, the smoothed cubic spline, and the weighted interpolations had the lowest residual sum of squares in our verification scheme. These methods fit the observed data at both high and low fire weather index values. The highly variable nature of the spatial distribution of summer precipitation amount is the biggest problem in interpolating between stations. This factor leads to highly variable fire weather index fields that are the most difficult to interpolate. The use of radar and (or) satellite data could help resolve precipitation patterns with greater precision. These interpolation methods could easily be implemented by fire control agencies to gain a better understanding of fire danger in the region.

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