scholarly journals A spatial Bayesian network model to assess the benefits of early warning for urban flood risk to people

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 1323-1337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Balbi ◽  
Ferdinando Villa ◽  
Vahid Mojtahed ◽  
Karin Tessa Hegetschweiler ◽  
Carlo Giupponi
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Post Traumatic Stress ◽  
Bayesian Network Model ◽  
Urban Flood

Abstract. This article presents a novel methodology to assess flood risk to people by integrating people's vulnerability and ability to cushion hazards through coping and adapting. The proposed approach extends traditional risk assessments beyond material damages; complements quantitative and semi-quantitative data with subjective and local knowledge, improving the use of commonly available information; and produces estimates of model uncertainty by providing probability distributions for all of its outputs. Flood risk to people is modeled using a spatially explicit Bayesian network model calibrated on expert opinion. Risk is assessed in terms of (1) likelihood of non-fatal physical injury, (2) likelihood of post-traumatic stress disorder and (3) likelihood of death. The study area covers the lower part of the Sihl valley (Switzerland) including the city of Zurich. The model is used to estimate the effect of improving an existing early warning system, taking into account the reliability, lead time and scope (i.e., coverage of people reached by the warning). Model results indicate that the potential benefits of an improved early warning in terms of avoided human impacts are particularly relevant in case of a major flood event.

scholarly journals A spatial Bayesian network model to assess the benefits of early warning for urban flood risk to people

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (10) ◽  
pp. 6615-6649 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Balbi ◽  
F. Villa ◽  
V. Mojtahed ◽  
K. T. Hegetschweiler ◽  
C. Giupponi
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Traumatic Stress ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Stress Disorders ◽  
Post Traumatic Stress ◽  
Bayesian Network Model ◽  
Post Traumatic

Abstract. This article presents a novel methodology to assess flood risk to people by integrating people's vulnerability and ability to cushion hazards through coping and adapting. The proposed approach extends traditional risk assessments beyond material damages; complements quantitative and semi-quantitative data with subjective and local knowledge, improving the use of commonly available information; produces estimates of model uncertainty by providing probability distributions for all of its outputs. Flood risk to people is modeled using a spatially explicit Bayesian network model calibrated on expert opinion. Risk is assessed in terms of: (1) likelihood of non-fatal physical injury; (2) likelihood of post-traumatic stress disorder; (3) likelihood of death. The study area covers the lower part of the Sihl valley (Switzerland) including the city of Zurich. The model is used to estimate the benefits of improving an existing Early Warning System, taking into account the reliability, lead-time and scope (i.e. coverage of people reached by the warning). Model results indicate that the potential benefits of an improved early warning in terms of avoided human impacts are particularly relevant in case of a major flood event: about 75 % of fatalities, 25 % of injuries and 18 % of post-traumatic stress disorders could be avoided.

scholarly journals Predicting the risk of GenX contamination in private well water using a machine-learned Bayesian network model

2021 ◽  
pp. 125075
Author(s):  
Javad Roostaei ◽  
Sarah Colley ◽  
Riley Mulhern ◽  
Andrew A. May ◽  
Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Well Water ◽  
Bayesian Network Model

scholarly journals Impact Mechanism of the Ecological Vulnerability of Highly Developed Islands Based on the Bayesian Network Model—Applied to the Changshan Islands

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 4150
Author(s):  
Keyu Qin ◽  
Haijun Huang ◽  
Jingya Liu ◽  
Liwen Yan ◽  
Yanxia Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Bayesian Network Model ◽  
Island Ecosystems ◽  
Impact Mechanism ◽  
The North ◽  
Ecological Vulnerability ◽  
The Impact

Islands are one of the most sensitive interfaces between global changes and land and sea dynamic effects, with high sensitivity and low stability. Therefore, under the dynamic coupling effect of human activities and frequent natural disasters, the vulnerability of the ecological environment of islands shows the characteristics of complexity and diversity. For the protection of island ecosystems, a system for the assessment of island ecosystems and studies on the mechanism of island ecological vulnerability are highly crucial. In this study, the North and South Changshan Islands of China were selected as the study area. Considering various impact factors of island ecological vulnerability, the geographical information systems (GIS) spatial analysis, field surveys, data sampling were used to evaluate island ecological vulnerability. The Bayesian network model was used to explore the impact mechanism of ecological vulnerability. The results showed that the ecological vulnerability of the North Changshan Island is higher than that of the South Changshan Island. Among all the indicators, the proportion of net primary productivity (NPP) and the steep slope has the strongest correlation with ecological vulnerability. This study can be used as references in the relevant departments to formulate management policies and promote the sustainable development of islands and their surrounding waters

scholarly journals Misper-Bayes: A Bayesian Network Model for Missing Person Investigations

IEEE Access ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Denis Reilly ◽  
Mark Taylor ◽  
Paul Fergus ◽  
Carl Chalmers ◽  
Steven Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Bayesian Network Model

Probabilistic Model-Based Fault Diagnosis of the Rotor System

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiye Shao ◽  
Rixin Wang ◽  
Jingbo Gao ◽  
Minqiang Xu
Keyword(s):  
Fault Diagnosis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Rotating Machinery ◽  
Rotor System ◽  
Bayesian Network Model ◽  
Diagnosis System ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Core Components ◽  
Fault Diagnosis System

The rotor is one of the most core components of the rotating machinery and its working states directly influence the working states of the whole rotating machinery. There exists much uncertainty in the field of fault diagnosis in the rotor system. This paper analyses the familiar faults of the rotor system and the corresponding faulty symptoms, then establishes the rotor’s Bayesian network model based on above information. A fault diagnosis system based on the Bayesian network model is developed. Using this model, the conditional probability of the fault happening is computed when the observation of the rotor is presented. Thus, the fault reason can be determined by these probabilities. The diagnosis system developed is used to diagnose the actual three faults of the rotor of the rotating machinery and the results prove the efficiency of the method proposed.

Corrosion threat assessment of crude oil flow lines using Bayesian network model

2015 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 236-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Koch ◽  
F. Ayello ◽  
V. Khare ◽  
N. Sridhar ◽  
A. Moosavi
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Threat Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Network Model ◽  
Flow Lines ◽  
Oil Flow
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