Fire weather index: the skill provided by ECMWF ensemble prediction system

Abstract. In the framework of the EU Copernicus program, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) on behalf of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) is forecasting daily fire weather indices using its medium range ensemble prediction system. The use of weather forecast in place of local observations can extend early warnings up to 1–2 weeks allowing for greater proactive coordination of resource-sharing and mobilization within and across countries. Using one year of pre-operational service in 2017 and the fire weather index (FWI) here we assess the capability of the system globally and analyze in detail three major events in Chile, Portugal and California. The analysis shows that the skill provided by the ensemble forecast system extends to more than 10 days when compared to the use of mean climate making a case of extending the forecast range to the sub-seasonal to seasonal time scale. However accurate FWI prediction does not translate into accuracy in the forecast of fire activity globally. Indeed when all 2017 detected fires are considered, including agricultural and human induced burning, high FWI values only occurs in 50 % of the cases and only in Boreal regions. Nevertheless for very important events mostly driven by weather condition, FWI forecast provides advance warning that could be instrumental in setting up management strategies.

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Fire Weather Index: the skill provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-20-2365-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (8) ◽

pp. 2365-2378

Author(s):

Francesca Di Giuseppe ◽

Claudia Vitolo ◽

Blazej Krzeminski ◽

Christopher Barnard ◽

Pedro Maciel ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Research Centre ◽

Ensemble Prediction ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Prediction System ◽

Weather Index ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Ensemble Prediction System ◽

Weather Forecasts ◽

European Centre ◽

Medium Range

Abstract. In the framework of the EU Copernicus programme, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) is forecasting daily fire weather indices using its medium-range ensemble prediction system. The use of weather forecasts in place of local observations can extend early warnings by up to 1–2 weeks, allowing for greater proactive coordination of resource-sharing and mobilization within and across countries. Using 1 year of pre-operational service in 2017 and the Fire Weather Index (FWI), here we assess the capability of the system globally and analyse in detail three major events in Chile, Portugal and California. The analysis shows that the skill provided by the ensemble forecast system extends to more than 10 d when compared to the use of mean climate, making a case for extending the forecast range to the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale. However, accurate FWI prediction does not translate into accuracy in the forecast of fire activity globally. Indeed, when all fires detected in 2017 are considered, including agricultural- and human-induced burning, high FWI values only occur in 50 % of the cases and are limited to the Boreal regions. Nevertheless for very large events which were driven by weather conditions, FWI forecasts provide advance warning that could be instrumental in setting up management and containment strategies.

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Review of 'Fire weather index: the skill provided by ECMWF ensemble prediction system'

10.5194/nhess-2020-33-rc2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Anonymous

Keyword(s):

Ensemble Prediction ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Prediction System ◽

Weather Index ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Ensemble Prediction System

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How unusual are fire conditions ?

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-18654 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Francesca Di Giuseppe ◽

Claudia Vitolo ◽

Blazej Krzeminski

Keyword(s):

Fire Danger ◽

Fire Season ◽

Ensemble Prediction ◽

Weather Index ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Ensemble Prediction System ◽

Local Climate ◽

Weather Forecasts ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Medium Range

Extreme fire danger is expected in certain regions at summer times. However in some cases (e.g. Australian fire in 2019) possibly because of&#160; early onsets or&#160; prolonged conditions,&#160; fires lead to catastrophic outcomes. These events are often referred as "anomalous" without a quantification. At the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), one tool that could aid pinpointing how uncommon these &#160;situations &#160;are &#160;is the extreme forecast index (EFI), an index that highlights regions that are forecast to substantial diverege &#160;from &#160;to the local climate.&#160; The EFI concept has been in the past applied to meteorological fields such as temperature and precipitation. In this work we build on &#160;previous findings by undertaking a global verification out to 15 days forecast &#160;on the ability of the EFI for the Fire Weather Index (FWI)to capture extreme observed fire. Using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system and probabilistic skills score we analyse the fire season in&#160; 2019. In most case the&#160; EFI is more skillful than the simple FWI to detect anomalous conditions for fire danger. Following these results, the operational implementation of the FWI EFI &#160;is currently being planned.

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Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-11-725-2007 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 725-737 ◽

Cited By ~ 112

Author(s):

E. Roulin

Keyword(s):

Economic Value ◽

Skill Score ◽

Balance Model ◽

Ensemble Prediction ◽

Prediction System ◽

Probability Forecast ◽

Ensemble Prediction System ◽

Verification Methods ◽

Medium Range ◽

The One

Abstract. A hydrological ensemble prediction system, integrating a water balance model with ensemble precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), is evaluated for two Belgian catchments using verification methods borrowed from meteorology. The skill of the probability forecast that the streamflow exceeds a given level is measured with the Brier Skill Score. Then the value of the system is assessed using a cost-loss decision model. The verification results of the hydrological ensemble predictions are compared with the corresponding results obtained for simpler alternatives as the one obtained by using of the deterministic forecast of ECMWF which is characterized by a higher spatial resolution or by using of the EPS ensemble mean.

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The European Flood Alert System – Part 1: Concept and development

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-13-125-2009 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 13 (2) ◽

pp. 125-140 ◽

Cited By ~ 299

Author(s):

J. Thielen ◽

J. Bartholmes ◽

M.-H. Ramos ◽

A. de Roo

Keyword(s):

River Basins ◽

Danube River ◽

Research Centre ◽

Ensemble Prediction ◽

Alert System ◽

Ensemble Prediction System ◽

Weather Forecasts ◽

Flood Warning ◽

Medium Range ◽

Flood Alert

Abstract. This paper presents the development of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS), which aims at increasing preparedness for floods in trans-national European river basins by providing local water authorities with medium-range and probabilistic flood forecasting information 3 to 10 days in advance. The EFAS research project started in 2003 with the development of a prototype at the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), in close collaboration with the national hydrological and meteorological services. The prototype covers the whole of Europe on a 5 km grid. In parallel, different high-resolution data sets have been collected for the Elbe and Danube river basins, allowing the potential of the system under optimum conditions and on a higher resolution to be assessed. Flood warning lead-times of 3–10 days are achieved through the incorporation of medium-range weather forecasts from the German Weather Service (DWD) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), comprising a full set of 51 probabilistic forecasts from the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) provided by ECMWF. The ensemble of different hydrographs is analysed and combined to produce early flood warning information, which is disseminated to the hydrological services that have agreed to participate in the development of the system. In Part 1 of this paper, the scientific approach adopted in the development of the system is presented. The rational of the project, the system�s set-up, its underlying components, basic principles and products are described. In Part 2, results of a detailed statistical analysis of the performance of the system are shown, with regard to both probabilistic and deterministic forecasts.

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Detection of Severe Weather Events in a High-Resolution Ensemble Prediction System Using the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT)

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/waf-d-17-0183.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 33 (4) ◽

pp. 901-908

Author(s):

Laure Raynaud ◽

Benoît Touzé ◽

Philippe Arbogast

Keyword(s):

Reference Model ◽

Weather Forecast ◽

Ensemble Forecast ◽

Severe Weather ◽

Ensemble Prediction ◽

False Alarms ◽

Prediction System ◽

Ensemble Prediction System ◽

Wind Gusts ◽

Weather Events

Abstract The extreme forecast index (EFI) and shift of tails (SOT) are commonly used to compare an ensemble forecast to a reference model climatology, in order to measure the severity of the current weather forecast. In this study, the feasibility and the relevance of EFI and SOT computations are examined within the convection-permitting Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME-France) ensemble prediction system (EPS). First, different climate configurations are proposed and discussed, in order to overcome the small size of the ensemble and the short climate sampling length. Subjective and objective evaluations of EFI and SOT for wind gusts and precipitation forecasts are then presented. It is shown that these indices can provide relevant early warnings and, based on a trade-off between hits and false alarms, optimal EFI thresholds can be determined for decision-making.

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The influence of the new ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System resolution on wind power forecast accuracy and uncertainty estimation

Advances in Science and Research ◽

10.5194/asr-8-143-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

pp. 143-147 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

S. Alessandrini ◽

S. Sperati ◽

P. Pinson

Keyword(s):

Wind Power ◽

Prediction Accuracy ◽

Wind Farm ◽

Forecast Accuracy ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Ensemble Prediction ◽

Prediction System ◽

Meteorological Model ◽

Ensemble Prediction System ◽

Medium Range Weather Forecast

Abstract. The importance of wind power forecasting (WPF) is nowadays commonly recognized because it represents a useful tool to reduce problems of grid integration and to facilitate energy trading. If on one side the prediction accuracy is fundamental to these scopes, on the other it has become also clear that a reliable estimation about their uncertainty is paramount. In fact prediction accuracy is unfortunately not constant and can depend on the location of a particular wind farm, on the forecast time and on the atmospheric situation. Previous studies indicated that the spread of power forecasts derived from the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) in use at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) could be used as indicator of a three-hourly, three days ahead, wind power forecast's accuracy. In this paper a new application of the EPS, whose horizontal resolution was increased on January 2010 from T399/T255 (60 km) to T639/T319 (32 km), shows an improvement in the results implying that the power spread has actually enough correlation with the error calculated on the deterministic forecast in order to be used as an accuracy predictor. The periods for this comparison are from January 2008 until October 2008 (T399/T255) and from January 2011 until October 2011 (T639/T319). Moreover we have focused our attention on the influence of the new EPS configuration on the performance of a deterministic WPF conducted with the ensemble mean: the results show that increasing the EPS resolution yields a single-valued WPF whose performance is comparable with that of the new ECMWF deterministic high-resolution meteorological model, whose spatial resolution increased from T799 (25 km) to T1279 (15 km).

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Medium-range fire weather forecasts

International Journal of Wildland Fire ◽

10.1071/wf9910159 ◽

1991 ◽

Vol 1 (3) ◽

pp. 159 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

JO Roads ◽

K Ueyoshi ◽

SC Chen ◽

J Alpert ◽

F Fujioka

Keyword(s):

Relative Humidity ◽

Surface Wind ◽

Forecast Errors ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Weather Variables ◽

Weather Index ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Near Surface ◽

Medium Range Forecast ◽

Medium Range

The forecast skill of theNational Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) numerical forecasts of fire weather variables is assessed for the period June 1,1988 to May 31,1990. Near-surface virtual temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and a derived fire weather index (FWI) are forecast well by the MRF model. However, forecast relative humidity has a wet bias during the winter and a slight dry bias during the summer, which has noticeable impact on forecasts of the derived fire weather index. The FWI forecasts are also strongly affected by near-surface wind forecast errors. Still, skillful forecasts of the fire weather index as well as the other relevant fire weather variables are made out to about 10 days. These forecasts could be utilized more extensively by fire weather forecasters.

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