scholarly journals Precision of continuous GPS velocities from statistical analysis of synthetic time series

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Masson ◽  
Stephane Mazzotti ◽  
Philippe Vernant
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Regression Tree ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Position Time Series ◽  
Gps Velocities ◽  
Synthetic Time Series ◽  
Continuous Gps ◽  
Automatic Treatment ◽  
Gps Noise

Abstract. We use statistical analyses of synthetic position time series to estimate the potential precision of GPS velocities. The synthetic series represent the standard range of noise, seasonal, and position offset characteristics, leaving aside extreme values. This analysis is combined with a new simple method for automatic offset detection that allows an automatic treatment of the massive dataset. Colored noise and the presence of offsets are the primary contributor to velocity variability. However, regression tree analyses show that the main factors controlling the velocity precision are first the duration of the series, followed by the presence of offsets and the noise (dispersion and spectral index). Our analysis allows us to propose guidelines, which can be applied to actual GPS data, that constrain the velocity accuracies (expressed as 95 % confidence limits) based on simple parameters: (1) Series durations over 8.0 years result in high velocity accuracies in the horizontal (0.2 mm yr−1) and vertical (0.5 mm yr−1); (2) Series durations of less than 4.5 years cannot be used for high-precision studies since the horizontal accuracy is insufficient (over 1.0 mm yr−1); (3) Series of intermediate durations (4.5–8.0 years) are associated with an intermediate horizontal accuracy (0.6 mm yr-1) and a poor vertical one (1.3 mm yr−1), unless they comprise no offset. Our results suggest that very long series durations (over 15–20 years) do not ensure a better accuracy compare to series of 8–10 years, due to the noise amplitude following a power-law dependency on the frequency. Thus, better characterizations of long-period GPS noise and pluri-annual environmental loads are critical to further improve GPS velocity precisions.

scholarly journals Precision of continuous GPS velocities from statistical analysis of synthetic time series

Solid Earth ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 329-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Masson ◽  
Stephane Mazzotti ◽  
Philippe Vernant
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Regression Tree ◽  
Low Velocity ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Position Time Series ◽  
Gps Velocities ◽  
Synthetic Time Series ◽  
Continuous Gps ◽  
Automatic Treatment

Abstract. We use statistical analyses of synthetic position time series to estimate the potential precision of GPS (Global Positioning System) velocities. The synthetic series represent the standard range of noise, seasonal, and position offset characteristics, leaving aside extreme values. This analysis is combined with a new simple method for automatic offset detection that allows an automatic treatment of the massive dataset. Colored noise and the presence of offsets are the primary contributor to velocity variability. However, regression tree analyses show that the main factors controlling the velocity precision are first the duration of the series, second the presence of offsets, and third the noise level (dispersion and spectral index). Our analysis allows us to propose guidelines, which can be applied to actual GPS data, that constrain velocity precisions, characterized as a 95 % confidence limit of the velocity biases, based on simple parameters: (1) series durations over 8.0 years result in low-velocity biases in the horizontal (0.2 mm yr−1) and vertical (0.5 mm yr−1) components; (2) series durations of less than 4.5 years are not suitable for studies that require precisions lower than mm yr−1; (3) series of intermediate durations (4.5–8.0 years) are associated with an intermediate horizontal bias (0.6 mm yr−1) and a high vertical one (1.3 mm yr−1), unless they comprise no offset. Our results suggest that very long series durations (over 15–20 years) do not ensure a significantly lower bias compared to series of 8–10 years, due to the noise amplitude following a power-law dependency on the frequency. Thus, better characterizations of long-period GPS noise and pluri-annual environmental loads are critical to further improve GPS velocity precisions.

scholarly journals GPS measurements on pre-, co- and post-seismic surface deformation at first multi-parametric geophysical observatory, Ghuttu in Garhwal Himalaya, India

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 136-144
Author(s):  
P.K. Gautam ◽  
S. Rajesh ◽  
N. Kumar ◽  
C.P. Dabral
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Surface Deformation ◽  
Translational Motion ◽  
Anomalous Behavior ◽  
Deformation Pattern ◽  
Local Earthquakes ◽  
Position Time Series ◽  
Continuous Gps ◽  
Gps Time Series ◽  
Gps Station

Abstract We investigate the surface deformation pattern of GPS station at MPGO Ghuttu (GHUT) to find out the cause of anomalous behavior in the continuous GPS time series. Seven years (2007-2013) of GPS data has been analyzed using GAMIT/GLOBK software and generated the daily position time series. The horizontal translational motion at GHUT is 43.7 ± 1 mm/yr at an angle of 41°± 3° towards NE, while for the IGS station at LHAZ, the motion is 49.4 ±1 mm/yr at 18 ± 2.5° towards NEE. The estimated velocity at GHUT station with respect to IISC is 12 ± 1 mm/yr towards SW. Besides, we have also examined anomalous changes in the time series of GHUT before, after and during the occurrences of local earthquakes by considering the empirical strain radius; such that, a possible relationship between the strain radius and the occurrences of earthquakes have been explored. We considered seven local earthquakes on the basis of Dobrovolsky strain radius condition having magnitude from 4.5 to 5.7, which occurred from 2007 to 2011. Results show irrespective of the station strain radius, pre-seismic surface deformational anomalies are observed roughly 70 to 80 days before the occurrence of a Moderate or higher magnitude events. This has been observed for the cases of those events originated from the Uttarakashi and the Chamoli seismic zones in the Garhwal and Kumaun Himalaya. Occurrences of short (< 100 days) and long (two years) inter-seismic events in the Garhwal region plausibly regulating and diffusing the regional strain accumulation.

2017-2019 SSE sequence and its interaction with large earthquakes in Mexico

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Kazachkina ◽  
Mathilde Radiguet ◽  
Nathalie Cotte ◽  
Jorge Jara ◽  
Andrea Walpersdorf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Inversion Method ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Kinematic Inversion ◽  
Position Time Series ◽  
Seismic Moment Release ◽  
Continuous Gps ◽  
Gps Time Series ◽  
The City ◽  
Large Earthquakes

&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;An intriguing sequence of a 2-stage SSE in Guerrero and a simultaneous SSE in Oaxaca took place in Mexico in 2017-2019. Three large earthquakes occur during these SSEs adding complexity to the observed surface deformations. The objective of this work is to explain the interaction between the overlapping seismic and aseismic events through the analysis of continuous GPS observations.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;We perform kinematic inversion of the GPS time series solving for the cumulative slip distribution on the subduction interface due to two SSEs, using Independent Component Analysis Inversion Method (ICAIM, Gualandi, 2015). The daily position time series for 2017-2019 are obtained by processing continuous data using GAMIT/GLOBK 10.7 (Herring et al, 2018). Strong postseismic signals generated by the following earthquakes 08/09/2017 Mw8.2 in Tehuantepec, 19/09/2017 Mw7.1 in Puebla-Morelos and 16/02/2018 Mw7.2 in Pinotepa are removed using the ICA decomposition. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;Our results show complex slip evolution on the subduction interface. We observe a clear change of cumulative seismic moment release rate after large seismic events of 2017 and after the earthquake in Pinotepa in 2018. The occurrence of Mw8.2 and Mw7.1 events notably slowed down the slip propagation of the Guerrero SSE. Continuous SSE in Oaxaca propagates from the northeast near the city of Oaxaca (-97.00&amp;#176;E, 16.70&amp;#176;N) towards the southwest approaching Pinotepa (-98.00&amp;#176;E, 17.00&amp;#176;N). Guerrero SSE migrates from the origin of its 1&lt;sup&gt;st&lt;/sup&gt; phase near Tecpan (-100.50&amp;#176;E, 17.50&amp;#176;N) southeastwards to Acapulco (-99.50&amp;#176;E, 17.20&amp;#176;N) where the 2&lt;sup&gt;nd&lt;/sup&gt; stage develops. Therefore the stress changes induced by the two aseismic events likely triggered the Mw7.2 Pinotepa earthquake (-98.01&amp;#176;E, 16.22&amp;#176;N). &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

EXTREME VALUES OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-PERIOD PHENOMENA OCCURRED DURING 1960-2015 IN THE COLOMBIAN PACIFIC OCEAN

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diaz Juan Navia ◽  
Diaz Juan Navia ◽  
Bolaños Nancy Villegas ◽  
Bolaños Nancy Villegas ◽  
Igor Malikov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Absolute Maximum ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Arctic Oscillation Index ◽  
Colombian Pacific

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA), in four coastal hydrographic stations of Colombian Pacific Ocean, were analyzed. The selected hydrographic stations were: Tumaco (1°48'N-78°45'W), Gorgona island (2°58'N-78°11'W), Solano Bay (6°13'N-77°24'W) and Malpelo island (4°0'N-81°36'W). SSTA time series for 1960-2015 were calculated from monthly Sea Surface Temperature obtained from International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS). SSTA time series, Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO), Arctic Oscillation index (AO) and sunspots number (associated to solar activity), were compared. It was found that the SSTA absolute minimum has occurred in Tumaco (-3.93°C) in March 2009, in Gorgona (-3.71°C) in October 2007, in Solano Bay (-4.23°C) in April 2014 and Malpelo (-4.21°C) in December 2005. The SSTA absolute maximum was observed in Tumaco (3.45°C) in January 2002, in Gorgona (5.01°C) in July 1978, in Solano Bay (5.27°C) in March 1998 and Malpelo (3.64°C) in July 2015. A high correlation between SST and ONI in large part of study period, followed by a good correlation with PDO, was identified. The AO and SSTA have showed an inverse relationship in some periods. Solar Cycle has showed to be a modulator of behavior of SSTA in the selected stations. It was determined that extreme values of SST are related to the analyzed large scale oscillations.

scholarly journals Stochastic Modeling of Hydroclimatic Processes Using Vine Copulas

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 2156
Author(s):  
George Pouliasis ◽  
Gina Alexandra Torres-Alves ◽  
Oswaldo Morales-Napoles
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stochastic Modeling ◽  
Copula Models ◽  
Multiple Processes ◽  
Spatial Dependencies ◽  
Probabilistic Dependence ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
Vine Copula ◽  
Synthetic Time Series ◽  
Hydroclimatic Variables

The generation of synthetic time series is important in contemporary water sciences for their wide applicability and ability to model environmental uncertainty. Hydroclimatic variables often exhibit highly skewed distributions, intermittency (that is, alternating dry and wet intervals), and spatial and temporal dependencies that pose a particular challenge to their study. Vine copula models offer an appealing approach to generate synthetic time series because of their ability to preserve any marginal distribution while modeling a variety of probabilistic dependence structures. In this work, we focus on the stochastic modeling of hydroclimatic processes using vine copula models. We provide an approach to model intermittency by coupling Markov chains with vine copula models. Our approach preserves first-order auto- and cross-dependencies (correlation). Moreover, we present a novel framework that is able to model multiple processes simultaneously. This method is based on the coupling of temporal and spatial dependence models through repetitive sampling. The result is a parsimonious and flexible method that can adequately account for temporal and spatial dependencies. Our method is illustrated within the context of a recent reliability assessment of a historical hydraulic structure in central Mexico. Our results show that by ignoring important characteristics of probabilistic dependence that are well captured by our approach, the reliability of the structure could be severely underestimated.

scholarly journals Analysis of Noise and Velocity in GNSS EPN-Repro 2 Time Series

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 2783
Author(s):  
Sorin Nistor ◽  
Norbert-Szabolcs Suba ◽  
Kamil Maciuk ◽  
Jacek Kudrys ◽  
Eduard Ilie Nastase ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Visual Inspection ◽  
Flicker Noise ◽  
Vertical Component ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Noise Model ◽  
Noise Amplitude ◽  
Allan Deviation ◽  
Power Spectral ◽  
Position Time Series

This study evaluates the EUREF Permanent Network (EPN) station position time series of approximately 200 GNSS stations subject to the Repro 2 reprocessing campaign in order to characterize the dominant types of noise and amplitude and their impact on estimated velocity values and associated uncertainties. The visual inspection on how different noise model represents the analysed data was done using the power spectral density of the residuals and the estimated noise model and it is coherent with the calculated Allan deviation (ADEV)-white and flicker noise. The velocities resulted from the dominant noise model are compared to the velocity obtained by using the Median Interannual Difference Adjusted for Skewness (MIDAS). The results show that only 3 stations present a dominant random walk noise model compared to flicker and powerlaw noise model for the horizontal and vertical components. We concluded that the velocities for the horizontal and vertical component show similar values in the case of MIDAS and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), but we also found that the associated uncertainties from MIDAS are higher compared to the uncertainties from MLE. Additionally, we concluded that there is a spatial correlation in noise amplitude, and also regarding the differences in velocity uncertainties for the Up component.

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