scholarly journals Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness distribution in the East Siberian Sea based on the TOPAZ4 ice–ocean data assimilation system

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 2005-2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuya Nakanowatari ◽  
Jun Inoue ◽  
Kazutoshi Sato ◽  
Laurent Bertino ◽  
Jiping Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Ocean Data Assimilation ◽  
East Siberian Sea ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Maritime Navigation ◽  
Data Assimilation System

Abstract. Accelerated retreat of Arctic Ocean summertime sea ice has focused attention on the potential use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), for which sea ice thickness (SIT) information is crucial for safe maritime navigation. This study evaluated the medium-range (lead time below 10 days) forecast of SIT distribution in the East Siberian Sea (ESS) in early summer (June–July) based on the TOPAZ4 ice–ocean data assimilation system. A comparison of the operational model SIT data with reliable SIT estimates (hindcast, satellite and in situ data) showed that the TOPAZ4 reanalysis qualitatively reproduces the tongue-like distribution of SIT in ESS in early summer and the seasonal variations. Pattern correlation analysis of the SIT forecast data over 3 years (2014–2016) reveals that the early summer SIT distribution is accurately predicted for a lead time of up to 3 days, but that the prediction accuracy drops abruptly after the fourth day, which is related to a dynamical process controlled by synoptic-scale atmospheric fluctuations. For longer lead times ( >  4 days), the thermodynamic melting process takes over, which contributes to most of the remaining prediction accuracy. In July 2014, during which an ice-blocking incident occurred, relatively thick SIT ( ∼  150 cm) was simulated over the ESS, which is consistent with the reduction in vessel speed. These results suggest that TOPAZ4 sea ice information has great potential for practical applications in summertime maritime navigation via the NSR.

scholarly journals Medium-range predictability of early summer sea ice thickness distribution in the East Siberian Sea: Importance of dynamical and thermodynamic melting processes

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuya Nakanowatari ◽  
Jun Inoue ◽  
Kazutoshi Sato ◽  
Laurent Bertino ◽  
Jiping Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Dynamical Process ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
East Siberian Sea ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Maritime Navigation

Abstract. Accelerated retreat of Arctic Ocean summertime sea ice has focused attention on the potential use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), for which sea ice thickness (SIT) information is crucial for safe maritime navigation. This study evaluated the medium-range (lead time below 10 days) forecast skill of SIT distribution in the East Siberian Sea (ESS) in early summer (June–July) based on the TOPAZ4 ice ocean data assimilation system. Comparison of the operational model SIT data to all available observations (in situ and satellite) showed that the TOPAZ4 reanalysis reproduces the observed seasonal cycle and the rates of advance and melting of SIT in the ESS, with average bias of approximately ±20 cm. Pattern correlation analysis of the SIT forecast data over 4 years (2013–2016) reveals that the early summer SIT distribution is skillfully predicted for a lead time of up to 3 days, but that the prediction skill drops abruptly after the 4th day, which is related to dynamical process controlled by synoptic-scale atmospheric fluctuations. For longer lead times (> 4 days), the thermodynamic melting process takes over, which makes most of the remaining prediction skill. In July 2014, during which an ice-blocking incident occurred, relatively thick SIT (approximately 150 cm) was simulated over the ESS, which is consistent with the reduction of vessel speed. These results suggest that TOPAZ4 sea ice information has a great potential for practical applications in summertime maritime navigation via the NSR.

The effects of assimilating a sub-grid scale sea ice thickness distribution in a new Arctic sea ice data assimilation system

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Williams ◽  
Nicholas Byrne ◽  
Daniel Feltham ◽  
Peter Jan Van Leeuwen ◽  
Ross Bannister ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Thickness Distribution ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

<div><span>A modified, standalone version of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) has been coupled to the Parallelized Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF) to produce a new Arctic sea ice data assimilation system CICE-PDAF, with routines for assimilating many types of recently developed sea ice observations. In this study we explore the effects of assimilating a sub-grid scale sea ice thickness distribution derived from Cryosat-2 Arctic sea ice estimates into CICE-PDAF. The true state of the sub-grid scale ice thickness distribution is not well established, and yet it plays a key role in large scale sea ice models and is vital to the dynamical and thermodynamical processes necessary to produce a good representation of the Arctic sea ice state. We examine how assimilating sub-grid scale sea ice thickness distributions can affect the evolution of the sea ice state in CICE-PDAF and better our understanding of the Arctic sea ice system.</span></div>

scholarly journals Interseasonal Connections between the Timing of the Stratospheric Final Warming and Arctic Sea Ice

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 3079-3092 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael E. Kelleher ◽  
Blanca Ayarzagüena ◽  
James A. Screen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Surface Circulation ◽  
East Siberian Sea ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Stratospheric Final Warming ◽  
Arctic Sea

AbstractConnections across seasons in atmospheric circulation and sea ice have long been sought to advance seasonal prediction. This study presents a link between the springtime stratosphere and Arctic sea ice in summer through autumn. The polar stratospheric vortex dominates the winter stratosphere before breaking down each spring, which is called the stratospheric final warming, as solar radiation returns to the pole. Interannual variability of this breakdown is dynamically driven, leading to different springtime tropospheric and surface circulation patterns. To examine the different impacts of delayed and early final warmings, a multimodel composite was generated from selected CMIP5 models. Additionally, regressions were performed on JRA-55 against an index of springtime polar vortex strength. In both the multimodel composites and reanalysis regressions, significant anomalies in sea ice thickness persist several months following an anomalous timing of the final warming. A later final warming or stronger springtime polar stratospheric vortex leads to negative sea ice thickness anomalies in the East Siberian Sea and positive anomalies in the Beaufort Sea in comparison with an earlier final warming or weaker polar vortex. The spring polar stratospheric vortex is related to spring polar surface circulation patterns. The winds associated with this pattern induce anomalous sea ice motion, moving ice from the East Siberian Sea toward the Beaufort Sea. Reduced sea ice in the East Siberian Sea is linked to anomalous warmth over this region in autumn. Our results suggest that the timing of the stratospheric final warming exerts an influence on the tropospheric circulation and sea ice through autumn, which has implications for seasonal climate prediction.

scholarly journals Revisiting Trans-Arctic Maritime Navigability in 2011–2016 from the Perspective of Sea Ice Thickness

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 2766
Author(s):  
Xiangying Zhou ◽  
Chao Min ◽  
Yijun Yang ◽  
Jack C. Landy ◽  
Longjiang Mu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Transit Time ◽  
Open Water ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
East Siberian Sea ◽  
Transportation Accessibility ◽  
Sea Ice Edge ◽  
Arctic Navigation

Arctic navigation has become operational in recent decades with the decline in summer sea ice. To assess the navigability of trans-Arctic passages, combined model and satellite sea ice thickness (CMST) data covering both freezing seasons and melting seasons are integrated with the Arctic Transportation Accessibility Model (ATAM). The trans-Arctic navigation window and transit time are thereby obtained daily from modeled sea ice fields constrained by satellite observations. Our results indicate that the poorest navigability conditions for the maritime Arctic occurred in 2013 and 2014, particularly in the Northwest Passage (NWP) with sea ice blockage. The NWP has generally exhibited less favorable navigation conditions and shorter navigable windows than the Northern Sea Route (NSR). For instance, in 2013, Open Water (OW) vessels that can only safely resist ice with a thickness under 15 cm had navigation windows of 47 days along the NSR (45% shorter than the 2011–2016 mean) and only 13 days along the NWP (80% shorter than the 2011–2016 mean). The longest navigation windows were in 2011 and 2015, with lengths of 103 and 107 days, respectively. The minimum transit time occurred in 2012, when more northward routes were accessible, especially in the Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea with the sea ice edge retreated. The longest navigation windows for Polar Class 6 (PC6) vessels with a resistance to ice thickness up to 120 cm reached more than 200 days. PC6 vessels cost less transit time and exhibit less fluctuation in their navigation windows compared with OW vessels because of their ice-breaking capability. Finally, we found that restricted navigation along the NSR in 2013 and 2014 was related to the shorter periods of navigable days in the East Siberian Sea and Vilkitskogo Strait, with local blockages of thick ice having a disproportionate impact on the total transit. Shorter than usual navigable windows in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Beaufort Sea shortened the windows for entire routes of the NWP in 2013 and 2014.

scholarly journals Seasonal sea ice forecast skills and predictability of the KMA's GloSea5

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Byoung Woong An ◽  
Sang Min Lee ◽  
Pil-Hun Chang ◽  
KiRyong Kang ◽  
Yoon Jae Kim
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Freshwater Flux ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
East Siberian Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract. Ensemble sea ice forecasts of the Arctic Ocean conducted with the Korea Meteorological Administration's coupled global seasonal forecast system (GloSea5) is verified. To investigate the temporal and spatial characteristics of the seasonal projection of Arctic sea ice extent and thickness, a set of ensemble potential predictability is assessed. It shows significance for all lead months except anomalous around East Siberian Sea, Chukchi Sea and Beaufort Sea during summer months. However, during the radipdly thawing and freezing season, initial states lose its predictability and increase uncertainties in the prediction. The probability skill metrics show the summer sea ice prediction which strongly depends on the sea ice thickness interacting with the accuracy of the snow depth. We found the forecast skill is determined primarily by the timing of sea ice drift (i.e., Beaufort Gyre and Transpolar drift) and sea ice formation by freshwater flux in the East Siberian Sea. Therefore, capturing the sea ice thickness state effectively is the key process for skillful estimation of Arctic sea ice. In spite of the uncertainties in atmospheric conditions, this system provides skillful Arctic seasonal sea ice extent predictions up to six months.

In-situ automatic observations of ice thickness of seas

2012 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 583-592 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yinke Dou ◽  
Xiaomin Chang
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Capacitive Sensor ◽  
Automatic Monitoring ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
In Situ Observation ◽  
Glacier Surface ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
Surface Ice

Abstract Ice thickness is one of the most critical physical indicators in the ice science and engineering. It is therefore very necessary to develop in-situ automatic observation technologies of ice thickness. This paper proposes the principle of three new technologies of in-situ automatic observations of sea ice thickness and provides the findings of laboratory applications. The results show that the in-situ observation accuracy of the monitor apparatus based on the Magnetostrictive Delay Line (MDL) principle can reach ±2 mm, which has solved the “bottleneck” problem of restricting the fine development of a sea ice thermodynamic model, and the resistance accuracy of monitor apparatus with temperature gradient can reach the centimeter level and research the ice and snow substance balance by automatically measuring the glacier surface ice and snow change. The measurement accuracy of the capacitive sensor for ice thickness can also reach ±4 mm and the capacitive sensor is of the potential for automatic monitoring the water level under the ice and the ice formation and development process in water. Such three new technologies can meet different needs of fixed-point ice thickness observation and realize the simultaneous measurement in order to accurately judge the ice thickness.

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