scholarly journals The ERA5-Land soil temperature bias in permafrost regions

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2581-2595 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Cao ◽  
Stephan Gruber ◽  
Donghai Zheng ◽  
Xin Li
Keyword(s):  
Soil Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Soil Column ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Warm Bias ◽  
Temperature Bias ◽  
Permafrost Regions

Abstract. ERA5-Land (ERA5L) is a reanalysis product derived by running the land component of ERA5 at increased resolution. This study evaluates ERA5L soil temperature in permafrost regions based on observations and published permafrost products. We find that ERA5L overestimates soil temperature in northern Canada and Alaska but underestimates it in mid–low latitudes, leading to an average bias of −0.08 ∘C. The warm bias of ERA5L soil is stronger in winter than in other seasons. As calculated from its soil temperature, ERA5L overestimates active-layer thickness and underestimates near-surface (<1.89 m) permafrost area. This is thought to be due in part to the shallow soil column and coarse vertical discretization of the land surface model and to warmer simulated soil. The soil temperature bias in permafrost regions correlates well with the bias in air temperature and with maximum snow height. A review of the ERA5L snow parameterization and a simulation example both point to a low bias in ERA5L snow density as a possible cause for the warm bias in soil temperature. The apparent disagreement of station-based and areal evaluation techniques highlights challenges in our ability to test permafrost simulation models. While global reanalyses are important drivers for permafrost simulation, we conclude that ERA5L soil data are not well suited for informing permafrost research and decision making directly. To address this, future soil temperature products in reanalyses will require permafrost-specific alterations to their land surface models.

Underestimated snow density in ERA5-Land as a cause for warm bias of soil temperature over permafrost regions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Cao ◽  
Stephan Gruber ◽  
Donghai Zheng ◽  
Xin Li
Keyword(s):  
Soil Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Soil Column ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Snow Density ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Warm Bias ◽  
Permafrost Regions

&lt;div&gt; &lt;p&gt;ERA5 is the latest generation atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). ERA5-Land (ERA5L) is derived by running the land component of ERA5, Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land with a revised land surface hydrology (HTESSEL), at an increased resolution of 0.1&amp;#176;. This study evaluates ERA5L soil temperature in permafrost regions based on observations and published permafrost products. We find that ERA5L overestimates soil temperature in northern Canada and Alaska but underestimates it in mid&amp;#8211;low latitudes, leading to a near-zero overall bias (&amp;#8722;0.08 &amp;#730;C). The warm bias of ERA5L soil is more pronounced in winter than in other seasons. As calculated from its soil temperature, ERA5L overestimates active-layer thickness and underestimates near-surface (&lt; 1.89 m) permafrost area.This is thought to be due in part to the shallow soil column and coarse vertical discretization of the land surface model and to warmer simulated soil.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The soil temperature bias in permafrost regions correlates well with the bias in air temperature and with snow height. A review of the ERA5L snow parameterization in the code and a simulation example comparison with permafrost-specific processes rich model (GEOtop) both point to an error in snow metamorphism of HTESSEL leading to a low bias in ERA5L snow density as a possible cause for the warm bias in soil temperature. The apparent disagreement of station-based and areal evaluation techniques highlights challenges in our ability to test permafrost simulation models. While global reanalyses are important drivers for permafrost simulation, we conclude that ERA5L soil data are not well suited for informing permafrost research and decision making directly. To address this, future soil temperature products in reanalyses will require permafrost-specific alterations to their land surface models.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/div&gt;

scholarly journals The ERA5-Land Soil-Temperature Bias in Permafrost Regions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Cao ◽  
Stephan Gruber ◽  
Donghai Zheng ◽  
Xin Li
Keyword(s):  
Soil Temperature ◽  
Layer Thickness ◽  
Active Layer ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Average Bias ◽  
Warm Bias ◽  
Temperature Bias ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
Permafrost Regions

Abstract. ERA5-Land (ERA5L) is a reanalysis product derived by running the land component of ERA5 at increased resolution. This study evaluates its soil temperature in permafrost regions based on observations and published permafrost products. Soil in ERA5L is predicted too warm in northern Canada and Alaska, but too cold in mid-low latitudes, leading to an average bias of −0.08 °C. The warm bias of ERA5L soil is stronger in winter than in other seasons. Diagnosed from its soil temperature, ERA5L overestimates active-layer thickness and underestimates near-surface (

Impacts of Soil Heating Condition on Precipitation Simulations in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (7) ◽  
pp. 2263-2285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingang Fan
Keyword(s):  
Soil Temperature ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Heating Condition ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Thermal Fields ◽  
Soil Temperatures

Soil temperature is a major variable in land surface models, representing soil energy status, storage, and transfer. It serves as an important factor indicating the underlying surface heating condition for weather and climate forecasts. This study utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study the impacts of changes to the surface heating condition, derived from soil temperature observations, on regional weather simulations. Large cold biases are found in the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis project (ERA-40) soil temperatures as compared to observations. At the same time, a warm bias is found in the lower boundary assumption adopted by the Noah land surface model. In six heavy rain cases studied herein, observed soil temperatures are used to initialize the land surface model and to provide a lower boundary condition at the bottom of the model soil layer. By analyzing the impacts from the incorporation of observed soil temperatures, the following major conclusions are drawn: 1) A consistent increase in the ground heat flux is found during the day, when the observed soil temperatures are used to correct the cold bias present in ERA-40. Soil temperature changes introduced at the initial time maintain positive values but gradually decrease in magnitude with time. Sensible and latent heat fluxes and the moisture flux experience an increase during the first 6 h. 2) An increase in soil temperature impacts the air temperature through surface exchange, and near-surface moisture through evaporation. During the first two days, an increase in air temperature is seen across the region from the surface up to about 800 hPa (∼1450 m). The maximum near-surface air temperature increase is found to be, averaged over all cases, 0.5 K on the first day and 0.3 K on the second day. 3) The strength of the low-level jet is affected by the changes described above and also by the consequent changes in horizontal gradients of pressure and thermal fields. Thus, the three-dimensional circulation is affected, in addition to changes seen in the humidity and thermal fields and the locations and intensities of precipitating systems. 4) Overall results indicate that the incorporation of observed soil temperatures introduces a persistent soil heating condition that is favorable to convective development and, consequently, improves the simulation of precipitation.

scholarly journals A Comparison of the Noah and OSU Land Surface Models in the ECPC Seasonal Forecast Model

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 1031-1048 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurel L. De Haan ◽  
Masao Kanamitsu ◽  
Cheng-Hsuan Lu ◽  
John O. Roads
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature Bias ◽  
Congo River Basin

Abstract The Noah land surface model (LSM) has recently been implemented into the Experimental Climate Prediction Center’s (ECPC’s) global Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM). Its performance is compared to the older ECPC SFM with the Oregon State University (OSU) LSM using two sets of 10-member 50-yr Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs. The climatological biases of several fields tend to increase with the Noah LSM. The differences in near-surface temperature bias are traced to changes in the energy budget. In addition to climatology, the variability and skill (anomaly correlation with observations) of the two ensembles are considered. Unlike the climatology, the near-surface temperature skill of the ECPC SFM generally improves with the Noah LSM. Other climatological fields, such as precipitation, show little change in skill. While the global results are mixed, there are however significant regional improvements over Africa both in terms of climatological bias and skill. In the central African Congo River basin, the Noah LSM removed a warm-dry bias and improved upon the near-surface temperature skill of the OSU LSM. In the African Sahel, the Noah LSM greatly enhanced the climatology, variability, and skill of the ECPC SFM as well as improving the location of the African easterly jet.

scholarly journals Climate pattern-scaling set for an ensemble of 22 GCMs – adding uncertainty to the IMOGEN version 2.0 impact system

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 541-560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Przemyslaw Zelazowski ◽  
Chris Huntingford ◽  
Lina M. Mercado ◽  
Nathalie Schaller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Individual Performance ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Version 2.0

Abstract. Global circulation models (GCMs) are the best tool to understand climate change, as they attempt to represent all the important Earth system processes, including anthropogenic perturbation through fossil fuel burning. However, GCMs are computationally very expensive, which limits the number of simulations that can be made. Pattern scaling is an emulation technique that takes advantage of the fact that local and seasonal changes in surface climate are often approximately linear in the rate of warming over land and across the globe. This allows interpolation away from a limited number of available GCM simulations, to assess alternative future emissions scenarios. In this paper, we present a climate pattern-scaling set consisting of spatial climate change patterns along with parameters for an energy-balance model that calculates the amount of global warming. The set, available for download, is derived from 22 GCMs of the WCRP CMIP3 database, setting the basis for similar eventual pattern development for the CMIP5 and forthcoming CMIP6 ensemble. Critically, it extends the use of the IMOGEN (Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies) framework to enable scanning across full uncertainty in GCMs for impact studies. Across models, the presented climate patterns represent consistent global mean trends, with a maximum of 4 (out of 22) GCMs exhibiting the opposite sign to the global trend per variable (relative humidity). The described new climate regimes are generally warmer, wetter (but with less snowfall), cloudier and windier, and have decreased relative humidity. Overall, when averaging individual performance across all variables, and without considering co-variance, the patterns explain one-third of regional change in decadal averages (mean percentage variance explained, PVE, 34.25±5.21), but the signal in some models exhibits much more linearity (e.g. MIROC3.2(hires): 41.53) than in others (GISS_ER: 22.67). The two most often considered variables, near-surface temperature and precipitation, have a PVE of 85.44±4.37 and 14.98±4.61, respectively. We also provide an example assessment of a terrestrial impact (changes in mean runoff) and compare projections by the IMOGEN system, which has one land surface model, against direct GCM outputs, which all have alternative representations of land functioning. The latter is noted as an additional source of uncertainty. Finally, current and potential future applications of the IMOGEN version 2.0 modelling system in the areas of ecosystem modelling and climate change impact assessment are presented and discussed.

Development of stochastically perturbed parameterization scheme for the Noah Land Surface Model with the optimized random forcing parameters using the micro-genetic algorithm

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sujeong Lim ◽  
Claudio Cassardo ◽  
Seon Ki Park
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Ensemble Spread ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Random Forcing ◽  
Micro Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Stochastically Perturbed

&lt;p&gt;The ensemble data assimilation system is beneficial to represent the initial uncertainties and flow-dependent background error covariance (BEC). In particular, the inevitable model uncertainties can be expressed by ensemble spread, that is the standard deviation of ensemble BEC. However, the ensemble spread generally suffers from under-estimated problems. To alleviate this problem, recent studies employed stochastic perturbation schemes to increases the ensemble spreads by adding the random forcing in the model tendencies (i.e., physical or dynamical tendencies) or parameterization schemes (i.e., PBL, convective scheme, etc.). In this study, we focus on the near-surface uncertainties which are affected by the interactions between the land and atmosphere process. The land surface model (LSM) provides various fluxes as the lower boundary condition to the atmosphere, influencing the accuracy of hourly-to-seasonal scale weather forecasting, but the surface uncertainties were not much addressed yet. In this study, we developed the stochastically perturbed parameterization (SPP) scheme for the Noah LSM. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) ensemble system is used for regional weather forecasting over East Asia, especially over the Korean Peninsula. As a testbed experiment with the newly-developed Noah LSM-SPP system, we first perturbed the soil temperature &amp;#8212; a crucial variable for the near-surface forecasts by affecting sensible heat fluxes, land surface skin temperature and surface air temperature, and hence lower-tropospheric temperature. Here, the random forcing used in perturbation is made by the tuning parameters for amplitude, length scale, and time scales: they are commonly determined empirically by trial and error. In order to find optimal tuning parameter values, we applied a global optimization algorithm &amp;#8212; the micro-genetic algorithm (micro-GA) &amp;#8212; to achieve the smallest root-mean-squared errors. Our results indicate that optimization of the random forcing parameters contributes to an increase in the ensemble spread and a decrease in the ensemble mean errors in the near-surface and lower-troposphere uncertainties. Further experiments will be conducted by including soil moisture in the testbed.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Modelling northern peatlands area and carbon dynamics since the Holocene with the ORCHIDEE-PEAT land surface model (SVN r5488)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunjing Qiu ◽  
Dan Zhu ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Bertrand Guenet ◽  
Shushi Peng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Storage ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Net Primary Production ◽  
Soil Column ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Peat Core ◽  
Northern Peatlands

Abstract. The importance of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle has recently been recognized, especially for long-term changes. Yet, the complex interactions between climate and peatland hydrology, carbon storage and area dynamics make it challenging to represent these systems in land surface models. This study describes how peatland are included as an independent sub-grid hydrological soil unit (HSU) into the ORCHIDEE-MICT land surface model. The peatland soil column in this tile is characterized by multi-layered vertical water and carbon transport, and peat-specific hydrological properties. A cost-efficient TOPMODEL approach is implemented to simulate the dynamics of peatland area, calibrated by present-day wetland areas that are regularly inundated or subject to shallow water tables. The model is tested across a range of northern peatland sites and for gridded simulations over the Northern Hemisphere (> 30° N). Simulated northern peatland area (3.9 million km2), peat carbon stock (463 PgC) and peat depth are generally consistent with observed estimates of peatland area (3.4–4.0 million km2), peat carbon (270–540 PgC) and data compilations of peat core depths. Our results show that both net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (HR) of northern peatlands increased over the past century in response to CO2 and climate change. NPP increased more rapidly than HR, and thus net ecosystem production (NEP) exhibited a positive trend, contributing a cumulative carbon storage of 11.13 Pg C since 1901, most of it being realized after the 1950s.

scholarly journals Implementing the Water, HEat and Transport model in GEOframe (WHETGEO-1D v.1.0): algorithms, informatics, design patterns, open science features, and 1D deployment

2022 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-104
Author(s):  
Niccolò Tubini ◽  
Riccardo Rigon
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Design Patterns ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Soil Column ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Richards Equation ◽  
Energy Budgets ◽  
Programming Approach ◽  
Generic Programming ◽  
Surface Model

Abstract. This paper presents WHETGEO and its 1D deployment: a new physically based model simulating the water and energy budgets in a soil column. The purpose of this contribution is twofold. First, we discuss the mathematical and numerical issues involved in solving the Richardson–Richards equation, conventionally known as the Richards equation, and the heat equation in heterogeneous soils. In particular, for the Richardson–Richards equation (R2) we take advantage of the nested Newton–Casulli–Zanolli (NCZ) algorithm that ensures the convergence of the numerical solution in any condition. Second, starting from numerical and modelling needs, we present the design of software that is intended to be the first building block of a new customizable land-surface model that is integrated with process-based hydrology. WHETGEO is developed as an open-source code, adopting the object-oriented paradigm and a generic programming approach in order to improve its usability and expandability. WHETGEO is fully integrated into the GEOframe/OMS3 system, allowing the use of the many ancillary tools it provides. Finally, the paper presents the 1D deployment of WHETGEO, WHETGEO-1D, which has been tested against the available analytical solutions presented in the Appendix.

Adjoint retrieval of prognostic land surface model variables for an NWP model: Assimilation of ground surface temperature

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Diandong Ren
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Soil Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Soil ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Initial Guess ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Soil Moisture Condition ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Surface Soil Temperature

AbstractBased on a 2-layer land surface model, a rather general variational data assimilation framework for estimating model state variables is developed. The method minimizes the error of surface soil temperature predictions subject to constraints imposed by the prediction model. Retrieval experiments for soil prognostic variables are performed and the results verified against model simulated data as well as real observations for the Oklahoma Atmospheric Surface layer Instrumentation System (OASIS). The optimization scheme is robust with respect to a wide range of initial guess errors in surface soil temperature (as large as 30 K) and deep soil moisture (within the range between wilting point and saturation). When assimilating OASIS data, the scheme can reduce the initial guess error by more than 90%, while for Observing Simulation System Experiments (OSSEs), the initial guess error is usually reduced by over four orders of magnitude.Using synthetic data, the robustness of the retrieval scheme as related to information content of the data and the physical meaning of the adjoint variables and their use in sensitivity studies are investigated. Through sensitivity analysis, it is confirmed that the vegetation coverage and growth condition determine whether or not the optimally estimated initial soil moisture condition leads to an optimal estimation of the surface fluxes. This reconciles two recent studies.With the real data experiments, it is shown that observations during the daytime period are the most effective for the retrieval. Longer assimilation windows result in more accurate initial condition retrieval, underlining the importance of information quantity, especially for schemes assimilating noisy observations.

scholarly journals The influence of climate and hydrological variables on opposite anomaly in active-layer thickness between Eurasian and North American watersheds

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 631-645 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Park ◽  
J. Walsh ◽  
A. N. Fedorov ◽  
A. B. Sherstiukov ◽  
Y. Iijima ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Layer Thickness ◽  
Active Layer ◽  
North American ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Hydrological Variables ◽  
Permafrost Regions

Abstract. This study not only examined the spatiotemporal variations of active-layer thickness (ALT) in permafrost regions during 1948–2006 over the terrestrial Arctic regions experiencing climate changes, but also identified the associated drivers based on observational data and a simulation conducted by a land surface model (CHANGE). The focus on the ALT extends previous studies that have emphasized ground temperatures in permafrost regions. The Ob, Yenisey, Lena, Yukon, and Mackenzie watersheds are foci of the study. Time series of ALT in Eurasian watersheds showed generally increasing trends, while the increase in ALT in North American watersheds was not significant. However, ALT in the North American watersheds has been negatively anomalous since 1990 when the Arctic air temperature entered into a warming phase. The warming temperatures were not simply expressed to increases in ALT. Since 1990 when the warming increased, the forcing of the ALT by the higher annual thawing index (ATI) in the Mackenzie and Yukon basins has been offset by the combined effects of less insulation caused by thinner snow depth and drier soil during summer. In contrast, the increasing ATI together with thicker snow depth and higher summer soil moisture in the Lena contributed to the increase in ALT. The results imply that the soil thermal and moisture regimes formed in the pre-thaw season(s) provide memory that manifests itself during the summer. The different ALT anomalies between Eurasian and North American watersheds highlight increased importance of the variability of hydrological variables.

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