Brief Communication: The significance for the IPCC targets of 1.5 °C
and 2.0 °C temperature rise for an ice-free Arctic
Keyword(s):
Abstract. An assessment of the risks of a seasonally ice-free arctic at 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming above pre-industrial is undertaken using model simulations with solar radiation management to achieve the desired temperatures. An ensemble, of the CMIP5 model HadGEM2-ES, is used to reduce the internal variability and produce a probability density function of an ice-free state. It is found that the continuing loss of Arctic sea ice can be halted if the Paris Agreement temperature goal of 1.5 °C is achieved. A comparison with other methodologies and models shows that the result is robust.