Who are the 3 Per Cent? The Connections Among Climate Change Contrarians

Despite 97 per cent of scientists agreeing on anthropogenic global warming, the remaining 3 per cent play a critical role in keeping the debate about climate consensus alive. Analysis of climate change contrarians from multi-signatory documents reveals 3 per cent of signees to be climate experts, while the remaining 97 per cent do not meet expert criteria and are also involved with organizations and industries who make up the climate change countermovement. The data also reveal most contrarians to be aged sixty-five or older. As a result, we explore other factors (for example, collective memories and ideological views) that may have also contributed to expert and non-expert views.

The necessity defence and anthropogenic global warming protests: The times they are a-changin’

The Extinction Rebellion protests of 2019 and 2020 resulted in peaceful protesters being charged for a range of minor, non-violent criminal offences. The defence to those charges is necessity, a defence tightly restricted in its use by the courts. This article argues that in the specific context of minor criminal offences committed during anthropogenic global warming (AGW) protests, necessity must be reconceptualised. This is particularly so given the growing international recognition of that defence in AGW protest matters, the increasing state prohibition on protest and the unique manner in which AGW protests subvert the strict application of the rule of law.

Welcome to Venus?

This chapter examines the reasons for thinking that anthropogenic climate change—planetary-level warming caused by human activity—is real. The science underlying the idea of anthropogenic global warming is explained. Several different forms of skepticism about climate change are explained and ultimately found to be lacking. The idea of a tipping cascade, and the consequent possibility of runaway warming, is explained. The ability to predict the ultimate severity of global warming relies on knowledge that we do not yet possess. Nevertheless, it is argued that, even if we adopt relatively conservative assumptions, it is very likely that global warming is going to have grave consequences, both for humans and for the rest of the natural world.

Arctic Sea Ice’s Amplification as a Complement to Anthropogenic Global Warming

Climate Change is a widely debated scientific subject and Anthropogenic Global Warming is its main cause. Nevertheless, several authors have indicated solar activity and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation variations may also influence Climate Change. This article considers the amplification of solar radiation’s and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation’s variations, via sea ice cover albedo feedbacks in the Arctic regions, providing a conceptual advance in the application of Arctic Amplification for modelling historical climate change. A 1-dimensional physical model, using sunspot number count and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index as inputs, can simulate the average global temperature’s anomaly and the Arctic Sea Ice Extension for the past eight centuries. This model represents an innovative progress in understanding how existing studies on Arctic sea ice’s albedo feedbacks can help complementing the Anthropogenic Global Warming models, thus helping to define more precise models for future climate change.

Balance (Climate and Environment Coverage)

Balance – as a journalistic norm in the domain of climate change reporting – is measured by analyzing both coverage of the debate over anthropogenic contributions to global warming (i.e., the existence of anthropogenic global warming) and coverage of decisions regarding action on global warming (i.e., actions regarding global warming) (Boykoff & Boykoff, 2004). Field of application/theoretical foundation: Balance is a commonly investigated and internationally agreed-upon journalistic norm that ensures that journalists portray different sides of a story in a neutral and objective way (Westerståhl, 1983). In science reporting, more specifically in reporting on climate change, this journalistic norm can lead to biased reporting in that sense that journalistic coverage does not mirror the scientific understanding (i.e., climate change does exist and action is needed) (Boykoff & Boykoff, 2004). References/combination with other methods of data collection: There are experimental studies that test the effects of differentially balanced news stories (e.g., Clarke et al., 2014; Dixon & Clarke, 2012), largely confirming that balanced coverage reduces confidence in a scientific consensus and heightens uncertainty of science, risks, etc. Example studies: Boykoff & Boykoff (2004); Boykoff (2007); Clarke (2008); Clarke et al. (2014); Dixon & Clarke (2012) Information on Boykoff & Boykoff, 2004 Authors: Maxwell T. Boykoff & Jules M. Boykoff Research question: The prevalence of the norm of balance in reporting on climate change and the degree to what this coverage’s adherence to balance led to biased coverage of both anthropogenic contributions to global warming (i.e., its existence) and resultant action. Object of analysis: A sample (636 articles) of the US prestige-press coverage of global warming, i.e., New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Wall Street Journal Time frame of analysis: between 1988 and 2002 Info about variables Variables: Two measures of balance: (a) Coverage of the debate over anthropogenic contributions to global warming (i.e., existence) (b) Coverage of decisions regarding action on global warming (i.e., action) Level of analysis: Newspaper article Variables and values: (a) First measure: Coverage of the debate over anthropogenic contributions to global warming (i.e., existence) Article only presents argument that anthropogenic global warming exists, clearly distinct from natural variations Article presents both sides, but emphasizes that anthropogenic global warming exists, still distinct from natural variation Article presents a balanced account of debates surrounding existence of anthropogenic global warming Article presents both sides, but emphasizes dubious nature of the claim that anthropogenic global warming exists (b) Second measure: Coverage of decisions regarding action on global warming (i.e., action) Dominant coverage of decisions/assertions regarding immediate/mandatory action to deal with global warming Balanced accounts of various decisions regarding action Dominant coverage of decisions/assertions regarding cautious/voluntary approaches to deal with global warming Reliability: Intercoder reliability rate of 93% Codebook: Table 1 in Boykoff & Boykoff (2004, p. 128) References Boykoff, M. T., & Boykoff, J. M. (2004). Balance as bias: Global warming and the US prestige press. Global Environmental change 14, 125-136. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.001 Boykoff, M. T. (2007). Flogging a dead norm? Newspaper coverage of anthropogenic climate change in the United States and United Kingdom from 2003 to 2006. Area 39(2), 470-481. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-4762.2007.00769.x Clarke, C. E. (2008). A question of balance. The autism-vaccine controversy in the British and American elite press. Science Communication 30(1), 77-107. doi: 10.1177/1075547008320262 Clarke, C. E., Dixon, G. N., Holton, A., Weberling McKeever, B. (2014). Including “evidentiary balance” in news media coverage of vaccine risk. Health Communication 30(5), 461-472. doi: 10.1080/10410236.2013.867006 Dixon, G. N., & Clarke, C. E. (2012). Heightening uncertainty around certain science: Media coverage, false balance, and the autism-vaccine controversy. Science Communication, 35(3) 358-382. doi: 10.1177/1075547012458290 Westerståhl, J. (1983). Objective News Reporting General Premises. Communication Research, 10(3), 403-424. doi: 10.1177/009365083010003007

The Sociology of Global Warming: A Scientometric Look

The theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) enjoys considerable consensus among experts. It is widely recognized that global industrialization is producing an increase in the planet’s temperatures and causing environmental disasters. Still, there are scholars – although a minority – who consider groundless either the idea of global warming itself or the idea that it constitutes an existential threat for humanity. This lack of scientific unanimity (as well as differing political ideologies) ignites controversies in the political world, the mass media, and public opinion as well. Sociologists have been dealing with this issue for some time, producing researches and studies based on their specific competencies. Using scientometric tools, this article tries to establish to what extent and in which capacity sociologists are studying the phenomenon of climate change. Particular attention is paid to meta-analytical aspects such as consensus, thematic trends, and the impact of scientific works.

What Is An Ideal Critical Thinker Expected to Conclude about Anthropogenic Global Warming?

Critical thinking involves the ability to properly assess statements and actions, and it also requires a permanent disposition to appropriately use cognitive skills in the evaluation of any claim. In the present paper, we discuss the characteristics of an ideal critical thinker, and apply them to a contemporary problem, namely anthropogenic global warming (AGW, a hypothesis that accounts for the increase of the average temperature of Earth as a consequence of human activities), in order to discuss what an ideal critical thinker is expected to conclude about the occurrence of this phenomenon. We assume that an ideal critical thinker is able to find out where the most reliable information regarding a certain issue is, is competent to reasonably evaluate it, and has an inclination to calibrate her beliefs according to the results of the inquiry. We thus conclude that an ideal critical thinker is expected to accept the current scientific consensus that AGW is occurring, albeit considering this issue, as well as virtually any other idea, open to revision. The fact that in many occasions people are selective in using critical thinking skills, such as when they reject the massive evidence of AGW, should be a cause of concern for educators, who should motivate their students to think critically about any problem and question they encounter; this, in turn, could help the students to develop a better understanding of the world, take more reasonable courses of action, and be protected against misinformation.

Changing the Climate: Some Provisional Conclusions

The chapter opens with an account of the ‘value relevance’ of the authors’ own loosely ‘Green’ beliefs and of how these led them to search for a cli-fi version of Nevil Shute’s On the Beach. They conclude that no such text exists as yet, but note the operation of what they term an ‘Off-Shute effect’, in which the cumulative weight of many different cli-fi texts could have a cumulative effect on real-world behaviour. One of their more striking unanticipated findings, they explain, was that none of their climate fictions, not even those by avowed socialists like Kim Stanley Robinson, depict the organised working class as the social force most likely to prevent anthropogenic global warming. They hypothesise that this is an effect of the persistence into the twenty-first century of ideological residues of postmodernism and stress that the term ‘Green’ as a political signifier derives from the Australian ‘Green bans’, that is from organised labour. The book and the chapter end with an insistence that climate fictions are warnings, rather than predictions or prophecies, and that warnings are there to be heeded and acted upon.