scholarly journals Brief communication: Impact of the recent atmospheric circulation change in summer on the future surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Delhasse ◽  
Xavier Fettweis ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Cécile Agosta
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Circulation Change ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Change

Abstract. Since the 2000's, a change in the atmospheric circulation over North Atlantic has favored warmer and sunnier weather conditions over the Greenland Ice sheet (GrIS) in summer enhancing the melt increase. This circulation change is not represented by General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which do not predict any circulation change for the next century over the Atlantic. The goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of an atmospheric circulation change (as currently observed) in a warmer climate on future projections of the GrIS surface mass balance (SMB). We compare GrIS SMB estimates from the regional climate model MAR forced by warmer reanalysis (ERA-Interim with a temperature correction of +1 °C, +1.5 °C and +2 °C at the MAR lateral boundaries) over 1980–2016 to future projections of GrIS SMB from MAR simulations forced with three GCMs over a future period for which a similar temperature increase of +1 °C, +1.5 °C and +2 °C is projected by the GCMs in comparison to 1980–1999. Mean SMB anomalies produced with warmer reanalysis over the climatologically stable period 1980–1999 is similar to those produced with MAR forced with GCMs over future periods characterized by a similar warming over Greenland. However, over the two last decades (2000–2016) when a circulation change has been observed in summer, MAR forced with warmer reanalysis suggests that the SMB decrease could be amplified by a factor of two if such atmospheric conditions will persist compared to future projections forced by GCMs for the same temperature increase but without any circulation change.

scholarly journals Estimating Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 3101-3147 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Fettweis ◽  
B. Franco ◽  
M. Tedesco ◽  
J. H. van Angelen ◽  
J. T. M. Lenaerts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Abstract. We report future projections of Surface Mass Balance (SMB) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) obtained with the regional climate model MAR, forced by the outputs of three CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) when considering two different warming scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The GCMs selected in this study have been chosen according to their ability to simulate the current climate over Greenland. Our results indicate that in a warmer climate (i) the mass gained due to increased precipitation over GrIS does not compensate the mass lost through increased run-off; (ii) the surface melt increases non-linearly with rising temperatures due to the positive feedback between surface albedo and melt, associated with the expansion of bare ice zones which, in addition, decreases the ice sheet refreezing capacity; (iii) most of the precipitation is expected to fall as rainfall in summer, which further increases surface melt; (iv) no considerable change is expected on the length of the melting season, since heavier winter snowfall dampens the melt increase at the end of spring; (v) the increase of meltwater run-off versus temperature anomalies is dependent of the GCM-forced MAR ability to simulate the current climate; (vi) the MAR-simulated SMB changes can be approximated using the annual accumulated snowfall and summer 600 hPa temperature increase simulated by the forcing GCMs. In view of the large range in the CMIP5 future projections for the same future scenario, the GCM-based SMB approximations allow us to estimate what future projections are most likely within the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. In 2100, the ensemble mean projects a sea level rise, resulting from a GrIS SMB decrease, estimated to be +4 ± 2 cm and +9 ± 4 cm for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The GrIS SMB should remain positive with respect to RCP 4.5 scenario and becomes negative around 2070 in the case of the RCP 8.5 scenario since a global warming >+3 °C is needed. However, these future projections do not consider the positive melt-elevation feedback because the ice sheet topography is fixed through the whole simulation. In this regard, the MAR simulations suggest a cumulative ice sheet thinning by 2100 of ~100–200 m in the ablation zone. This highlights the importance of coupling climate models to an ice sheet model to consider the future response of both surface processes and ice-dynamic changes, and their mutual feedbacks to rising temperatures.

scholarly journals Brief communication: Impact of the recent atmospheric circulation change in summer on the future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3409-3418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Delhasse ◽  
Xavier Fettweis ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Cécile Agosta
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The North ◽  
Circulation Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Change

Abstract. Since the 2000s, a change in the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic resulting in more frequent blocking events has favoured warmer and sunnier weather conditions over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in summer, enhancing the melt increase. This circulation change is not represented by general circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), which do not predict any circulation change for the next century over the North Atlantic. The goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of an atmospheric circulation change (as currently observed) on projections of the future GrIS surface mass balance (SMB). We compare GrIS SMB estimates simulated by the regional climate model MAR forced by perturbed reanalysis (ERA-Interim with a temperature correction of +1, +1.5, and +2 ∘C at the MAR lateral boundaries) over 1980–2016 to projections of the future GrIS SMB from MAR simulations forced by three GCMs over selected periods for which a similar temperature increase of +1, +1.5, and +2 ∘C is projected by the GCMs in comparison to 1980–1999. Mean SMB anomalies produced with perturbed reanalysis over the climatologically stable period 1980–1999 are similar to those produced with MAR forced by GCMs over future periods characterised by a similar warming over Greenland. However, over the 2 last decades (2000–2016) when an increase in the frequency of blocking events has been observed in summer, MAR forced by perturbed reanalysis suggests that the SMB decrease could be amplified by a factor of 2 if such atmospheric conditions persist compared to projections forced by GCMs for the same temperature increase but without any circulation change.

Contemporary (1960–2012) Evolution of the Climate and Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet

2013 ◽  
Vol 35 (5) ◽  
pp. 1155-1174 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. H. van Angelen ◽  
M. R. van den Broeke ◽  
B. Wouters ◽  
J. T. M. Lenaerts
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass

scholarly journals Simulation of the future sea level contribution of Greenland with a new glacial system model

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 3097-3121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhard Calov ◽  
Sebastian Beyer ◽  
Ralf Greve ◽  
Johanna Beckmann ◽  
Matteo Willeit ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
System Model ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. We introduce the coupled model of the Greenland glacial system IGLOO 1.0, including the polythermal ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (version 3.3) with hybrid dynamics, the model of basal hydrology HYDRO and a parameterization of submarine melt for marine-terminated outlet glaciers. The aim of this glacial system model is to gain a better understanding of the processes important for the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise under future climate change scenarios. The ice sheet is initialized via a relaxation towards observed surface elevation, imposing the palaeo-surface temperature over the last glacial cycle. As a present-day reference, we use the 1961–1990 standard climatology derived from simulations of the regional atmosphere model MAR with ERA reanalysis boundary conditions. For the palaeo-part of the spin-up, we add the temperature anomaly derived from the GRIP ice core to the years 1961–1990 average surface temperature field. For our projections, we apply surface temperature and surface mass balance anomalies derived from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios created by MAR with boundary conditions from simulations with three CMIP5 models. The hybrid ice sheet model is fully coupled with the model of basal hydrology. With this model and the MAR scenarios, we perform simulations to estimate the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea level rise until the end of the 21st and 23rd centuries. Further on, the impact of elevation–surface mass balance feedback, introduced via the MAR data, on future sea level rise is inspected. In our projections, we found the Greenland ice sheet to contribute between 1.9 and 13.0 cm to global sea level rise until the year 2100 and between 3.5 and 76.4 cm until the year 2300, including our simulated additional sea level rise due to elevation–surface mass balance feedback. Translated into additional sea level rise, the strength of this feedback in the year 2100 varies from 0.4 to 1.7 cm, and in the year 2300 it ranges from 1.7 to 21.8 cm. Additionally, taking the Helheim and Store glaciers as examples, we investigate the role of ocean warming and surface runoff change for the melting of outlet glaciers. It shows that ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are about equally important for the melting of the examined outlet glaciers.

scholarly journals Seasonal mass variations show timing and magnitude of meltwater storage in the Greenland Ice Sheet

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2981-2999 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiangjun Ran ◽  
Miren Vizcaino ◽  
Pavel Ditmar ◽  
Michiel R. van den Broeke ◽  
Twila Moon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
High Accumulation ◽  
Outlet Glacier ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Meltwater Runoff

Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is currently losing ice mass. In order to accurately predict future sea level rise, the mechanisms driving the observed mass loss must be better understood. Here, we combine data from the satellite gravimetry mission Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), surface mass balance (SMB) output of the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model v. 2 (RACMO2), and ice discharge estimates to analyze the mass budget of Greenland at various temporal and spatial scales. We find that the mean rate of mass variations in Greenland observed by GRACE was between −277 and −269 Gt yr−1 in 2003–2012. This estimate is consistent with the sum (i.e., -304±126 Gt yr−1) of individual contributions – surface mass balance (SMB, 216±122 Gt yr−1) and ice discharge (520±31 Gt yr−1) – and with previous studies. We further identify a seasonal mass anomaly throughout the GRACE record that peaks in July at 80–120 Gt and which we interpret to be due to a combination of englacial and subglacial water storage generated by summer surface melting. The robustness of this estimate is demonstrated by using both different GRACE-based solutions and different meltwater runoff estimates (namely, RACMO2.3, SNOWPACK, and MAR3.9). Meltwater storage in the ice sheet occurs primarily due to storage in the high-accumulation regions of the southeast and northwest parts of Greenland. Analysis of seasonal variations in outlet glacier discharge shows that the contribution of ice discharge to the observed signal is minor (at the level of only a few gigatonnes) and does not explain the seasonal differences between the total mass and SMB signals. With the improved quantification of meltwater storage at the seasonal scale, we highlight its importance for understanding glacio-hydrological processes and their contributions to the ice sheet mass variability.

scholarly journals Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance for the 20th and 21st centuries

2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 117-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Fettweis ◽  
E. Hanna ◽  
H. Gallée ◽  
P. Huybrechts ◽  
M. Erpicum
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
21St Century ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. Results from a regional climate simulation (1970–2006) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) reveals that more than 97% of the interannual variability of the modelled Surface Mass Balance (SMB) can be explained by the GrIS summer temperature anomaly and the GrIS annual precipitation anomaly. This multiple regression is then used to empirically estimate the GrIS SMB since 1900 from climatological time series. The projected SMB changes in the 21st century are investigated with the set of simulations performed with atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). These estimates show that the high surface mass loss rates of recent years are not unprecedented in the GrIS history of the last hundred years. The minimum SMB rate seems to have occurred earlier in the 1930s and corresponds to a zero SMB rate. The AOGCMs project that the SMB rate of the 1930s would be common at the end of 2100. The temperature would be higher than in the 1930s but the increase of accumulation in the 21st century would partly offset the acceleration of surface melt due to the temperature increase. However, these assumptions are based on an empirical multiple regression only validated for recent/current climatic conditions, and the accuracy and time homogeneity of the data sets and AOGCM results used in these estimations constitute a large uncertainty.

scholarly journals A daily, 1 km resolution data set of downscaled Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (1958–2015)

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 2361-2377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brice Noël ◽  
Willem Jan van de Berg ◽  
Horst Machguth ◽  
Stef Lhermitte ◽  
Ian Howat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Ice Caps ◽  
Elevation Model

Abstract. This study presents a data set of daily, 1 km resolution Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) covering the period 1958–2015. Applying corrections for elevation, bare ice albedo and accumulation bias, the high-resolution product is statistically downscaled from the native daily output of the polar regional climate model RACMO2.3 at 11 km. The data set includes all individual SMB components projected to a down-sampled version of the Greenland Ice Mapping Project (GIMP) digital elevation model and ice mask. The 1 km mask better resolves narrow ablation zones, valley glaciers, fjords and disconnected ice caps. Relative to the 11 km product, the more detailed representation of isolated glaciated areas leads to increased precipitation over the southeastern GrIS. In addition, the downscaled product shows a significant increase in runoff owing to better resolved low-lying marginal glaciated regions. The combined corrections for elevation and bare ice albedo markedly improve model agreement with a newly compiled data set of ablation measurements.

scholarly journals Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from GRACE and Surface Mass Balance Modelling

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1847 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Zou ◽  
Robert Tenzer ◽  
Hok Fok ◽  
Janet Nichol
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Rapid Decline ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Long Term Trend

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is losing mass at a rate that represents a major contribution to global sea-level rise in recent decades. In this study, we use the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data to retrieve the time series variations of the GrIS from April 2002 to June 2017. We also estimate the mass balance from the RACMO2.3 and ice discharge data in order to obtain a comparative analysis and cross-validation. A detailed analysis of long-term trend and seasonal and inter-annual changes in the GrIS is implemented by GRACE and surface mass balance (SMB) modeling. The results indicate a decrease of −267.77 ± 8.68 Gt/yr of the GrIS over the 16-year period. There is a rapid decline from 2002 to 2008, which accelerated from 2009 to 2012 before declining relatively slowly from 2013 to 2017. The mass change inland is significantly smaller than that detected along coastal regions, especially in the southeastern, southwestern, and northwestern regions. The mass balance estimates from GRACE and SMB minus ice discharge (SMB-D) are very consistent. The ice discharge manifests itself mostly as a long-term trend, whereas seasonal mass variations are largely attributed to surface mass processes. The GrIS mass changes are mostly attributed to mass loss during summer. Summer mass changes are highly correlated with climate changes.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document