scholarly journals Mass evolution of the Antarctic Peninsula over the last two decades from a joint Bayesian inversion

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen J. Chuter ◽  
Andrew Zammit-Mangion ◽  
Jonathan Rougier ◽  
Geoffrey Dawson ◽  
Jonathan L Bamber
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Joint Inversion ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Processes ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Mass Losses ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. The Antarctic Peninsula has been an increasingly significant contributor to Antarctic Ice Sheet mass losses over the last two decades. However, due to the challenges presented by the topography and geometry of the region, there remain large variations in mass balance estimates from conventional approaches and in assessing the relative contribution of individual ice sheet processes. Here, we use a regionally optimised Bayesian Hierarchical Model joint inversion approach, that combines data from multiple altimetry studies (ENVISAT, ICESat-1, CryoSat-2 swath), gravimetry (GRACE and GRACE-FO) and localised DEM differencing observations, to solve for annual mass trends and their attribution to individual driving processes for the period 2003–2019. The region experienced a mass imbalance rate of −19 ± 1.1 Gt yr−1 between 2003 and 2019, predominantly driven by accelerations in ice dynamic mass losses in the first decade and sustained thereafter. Inter-annual variability is driven by surface processes, particularly in 2016 due to increased precipitation driven by an extreme El Niño, which temporarily returned the sector back to a state of positive mass balance. In the West Palmer Land and the English Coast regions, surface processes are a greater contributor to mass loss than ice dynamics in the early part of the 2010s, although both processes are acting simultaneously. Our results show good agreement with conventional and other combination approaches, improving confidence in the robustness of mass trend estimates, and in turn, understanding of the region’s response to changes in external forcing.

Automated mapping of Antarctic supraglacial lakes and streams using machine learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariel Dirscherl ◽  
Andreas Dietz ◽  
Celia Baumhoer ◽  
Christof Kneisel ◽  
Claudia Kuenzer
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Supraglacial Lakes ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Sentinel 2

<p>Antarctica stores ~91 % of the global ice mass making it the biggest potential contributor to global sea-level-rise. With increased surface air temperatures during austral summer as well as in consequence of global climate change, the ice sheet is subject to surface melting resulting in the formation of supraglacial lakes in local surface depressions. Supraglacial meltwater features may impact Antarctic ice dynamics and mass balance through three main processes. First of all, it may cause enhanced ice thinning thus a potentially negative Antarctic Surface Mass Balance (SMB). Second, the temporary injection of meltwater to the glacier bed may cause transient ice speed accelerations and increased ice discharge. The last mechanism involves a process called hydrofracturing i.e. meltwater-induced ice shelf collapse caused by the downward propagation of surface meltwater into crevasses or fractures, as observed along large coastal sections of the northern Antarctic Peninsula. Despite the known impact of supraglacial meltwater features on ice dynamics and mass balance, the Antarctic surface hydrological network remains largely understudied with an automated method for supraglacial lake and stream detection still missing. Spaceborne remote sensing and data of the Sentinel missions in particular provide an excellent basis for the monitoring of the Antarctic surface hydrological network at unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage.</p><p>In this study, we employ state-of-the-art machine learning for automated supraglacial lake and stream mapping on basis of optical Sentinel-2 satellite data. With more detail, we use a total of 72 Sentinel-2 acquisitions distributed across the Antarctic Ice Sheet together with topographic information to train and test the selected machine learning algorithm. In general, our machine learning workflow is designed to discriminate between surface water, ice/snow, rock and shadow being further supported by several automated post-processing steps. In order to ensure the algorithm’s transferability in space and time, the acquisitions used for training the machine learning model are chosen to cover the full circle of the 2019 melt season and the data selected for testing the algorithm span the 2017 and 2018 melt seasons. Supraglacial lake predictions are presented for several regions of interest on the East and West Antarctic Ice Sheet as well as along the Antarctic Peninsula and are validated against randomly sampled points in the underlying Sentinel-2 RGB images. To highlight the performance of our model, we specifically focus on the example of the Amery Ice Shelf in East Antarctica, where we applied our algorithm on Sentinel-2 data in order to present the temporal evolution of maximum lake extent during three consecutive melt seasons (2017, 2018 and 2019).</p>

Antarctic Peninsula mass trends from 2003 - 2016 using a Bayesian hierarchical model approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Chuter ◽  
Jonathan Rougier ◽  
Geoffrey Dawson ◽  
Jonathan Bamber
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Antarctic Peninsula ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Stereo Image ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>Long-term continuous monitoring of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance is imperative to better understand its multi-decadal response to changes in climate and ocean forcing. Additionally, more accurate knowledge of contemporaneous mass balance is key for improved parameterisations in ice sheet models. The Antarctic Peninsula has undergone rapid changes in mass balance and ice dynamics over the last two decades, with satellite observations showing the presence of grounding line retreat and increases in ice sheet velocity. This is particularly the case after the collapse of the Larsen A and B ice shelves in 1995 and 2002, and more recently the glaciers draining the southern Antarctic Peninsula. As a result, this region provides analogues for future ice sheet response to ice shelf collapse in other regions of Antarctica. </p><p>Despite the region’s importance to understanding ice sheet dynamics, it is challenging to accurately assess mass balance due its geometry and mountainous topography. Conventional pulse-limited altimetry suffers from poor coverage and data loss over steep mountainous terrain, particularly before the launch of CryoSat-2 in 2010. In the case of gravimetry, the geometry of the region means the coarse spatial resolution of the GRACE mission (~300 km) cannot resolve small spatial scale glacier changes (particularly over northern Antarctic Peninsula) and suffers from signal leakage into the ocean. For the mass budget approach, the challenge of accurately modelling surface mass balance over the region’s mountainous topography coupled with the sparsity of ice thickness observations at the grounding line for many sectors can result in large uncertainties. As a result, it can be difficult to reconcile the results from different conventional approaches in this region. </p><p>To resolve this, we have developed and optimised the BHM framework used previously over the Antarctic Ice Sheet to specifically investigate the Antarctic Peninsula. This enables each latent process driving ice sheet mass change to be resolved at a higher spatial resolution compared to previous implementations across Antarctica as a whole. The new regional solution also incorporates more recent and higher resolution observations including: CryoSat-2 swath altimetry, stereo-image DEM differencing and NASA Operation Ice Bridge laser altimetry elevation rates. This is the first time such a range of observations of varying spatio-temporal resolutions will be combined into one assessment for the region. We will present results from the regionally optimised model from 2003 until present, including basin-scale mass trends and changes in spatial latent processes at an annual resolution. Additionally, we will discuss future opportunities, such as extending the record from this approach into the next decade and further understanding of the GIA response in this region. </p>

scholarly journals A Joint Inversion Estimate of Antarctic Ice Sheet Mass Balance Using Multi-Geodetic Data Sets

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 653 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunchun Gao ◽  
Yang Lu ◽  
Zizhan Zhang ◽  
Hongling Shi
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Joint Inversion ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Mass Change ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Amundsen Sea ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Forward Models ◽  
Uplift Rates ◽  
The Antarctic

Many recent mass balance estimates using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and satellite altimetry (including two kinds of sensors of radar and laser) show that the ice mass of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is in overall decline. However, there are still large differences among previously published estimates of the total mass change, even in the same observed periods. The considerable error sources mainly arise from the forward models (e.g., glacial isostatic adjustment [GIA] and firn compaction) that may be uncertain but indispensable to simulate some processes not directly measured or obtained by these observations. To minimize the use of these forward models, we estimate the mass change of ice sheet and present-day GIA using multi-geodetic observations, including GRACE and Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat), as well as Global Positioning System (GPS), by an improved method of joint inversion estimate (JIE), which enables us to solve simultaneously for the Antarctic GIA and ice mass trends. The GIA uplift rates generated from our JIE method show a good agreement with the elastic-corrected GPS uplift rates, and the total GIA-induced mass change estimate for the AIS is 54 ± 27 Gt/yr, which is in line with many recent GPS calibrated GIA estimates. Our GIA result displays the presence of significant uplift rates in the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica, where strong uplift has been observed by GPS. Over the period February 2003 to October 2009, the entire AIS changed in mass by −84 ± 31 Gt/yr (West Antarctica: −69 ± 24, East Antarctica: 12 ± 16 and the Antarctic Peninsula: −27 ± 8), greater than the GRACE-only estimates obtained from three Mascon solutions (CSR: −50 ± 30, JPL: −71 ± 30, and GSFC: −51 ± 33 Gt/yr) for the same period. This may imply that single GRACE data tend to underestimate ice mass loss due to the signal leakage and attenuation errors of ice discharge are often worse than that of surface mass balance over the AIS.

The response of large ice sheets to climatic change

1992 ◽  
Vol 338 (1285) ◽  
pp. 235-242 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Mixing Ratio ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Environmental Models ◽  
Level Change ◽  
The Antarctic

The prediction of short-term (100 year) changes in the mass balance of ice sheets and longer-term (1000 years) variations in their ice volumes is important for a range of climatic and environmental models. The Antarctic ice sheet contains between 24 M km 3 and 29 M km 3 of ice, equivalent to a eustatic sea level change of between 60m and 72m. The annual surface accumulation is estimated to be of the order of 2200 Gtonnes, equivalent to a sea level change of 6 mm a -1 . Analysis of the present-day accumulation regime of Antarctica indicates that about 25% ( ca. 500 Gt a -1 ) of snowfall occurs in the Antarctic Peninsula region with an area of only 6.8% of the continent. To date most models have focused upon solving predictive algorithms for the climate-sensitivity of the ice sheet, and assume: (i) surface mass balance is equivalent to accumulation (i.e. no melting, evaporation or deflation); (ii) percentage change in accumulation is proportional to change in saturation mixing ratio above the surface inversion layer; and (iii) there is a linear relation between mean annual surface air tem perature and saturation mixing ratio. For the A ntarctic Peninsula with mountainous terrain containing ice caps, outlet glaciers, valley glaciers and ice shelves, where there can be significant ablation at low levels and distinct climatic regimes, models of the climate response must be more complex. In addition, owing to the high accumulation and flow rates, even short- to medium -term predictions must take account of ice dynamics. Relationships are derived for the mass balance sensitivity and, using a model developed by Hindmarsh, the transient effects of ice dynamics are estimated. It is suggested that for a 2°C rise in mean annual surface tem perature over 40 years, ablation in the A ntarctic Peninsula region would contribute at least 1.0 mm to sea level rise, offsetting the fall of 0.5 mm contributed by increased accum ulation.

scholarly journals Changes in ice dynamics and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet

2006 ◽  
Vol 364 (1844) ◽  
pp. 1637-1655 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Rignot
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
The Antarctic

The concept that the Antarctic ice sheet changes with eternal slowness has been challenged by recent observations from satellites. Pronounced regional warming in the Antarctic Peninsula triggered ice shelf collapse, which led to a 10-fold increase in glacier flow and rapid ice sheet retreat. This chain of events illustrated the vulnerability of ice shelves to climate warming and their buffering role on the mass balance of Antarctica. In West Antarctica, the Pine Island Bay sector is draining far more ice into the ocean than is stored upstream from snow accumulation. This sector could raise sea level by 1 m and trigger widespread retreat of ice in West Antarctica. Pine Island Glacier accelerated 38% since 1975, and most of the speed up took place over the last decade. Its neighbour Thwaites Glacier is widening up and may double its width when its weakened eastern ice shelf breaks up. Widespread acceleration in this sector may be caused by glacier ungrounding from ice shelf melting by an ocean that has recently warmed by 0.3 °C. In contrast, glaciers buffered from oceanic change by large ice shelves have only small contributions to sea level. In East Antarctica, many glaciers are close to a state of mass balance, but sectors grounded well below sea level, such as Cook Ice Shelf, Ninnis/Mertz, Frost and Totten glaciers, are thinning and losing mass. Hence, East Antarctica is not immune to changes.

scholarly journals Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Anais Orsi ◽  
Vincent Favier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Drifting Snow ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. The Antarctic ice sheet mass balance is a major component of the sea level budget and results from the difference of two fluxes of a similar magnitude: ice flow discharging in the ocean and net snow accumulation on the ice sheet surface, i.e. the surface mass balance (SMB). Separately modelling ice dynamics and surface mass balance is the only way to project future trends. In addition, mass balance studies frequently use regional climate models (RCMs) outputs as an alternative to observed fields because SMB observations are particularly scarce on the ice sheet. Here we evaluate new simulations of the polar RCM MAR forced by three reanalyses, ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and MERRA2, for the period 1979–2015, and we compare our results to the last outputs of the RCM RACMO2 forced by ERA-Interim. We show that MAR and RACMO2 perform similarly well in simulating coast to plateau SMB gradients, and we find no significant differences in their simulated SMB when integrated over the ice sheet or its major basins. More importantly, we outline and quantify missing processes in both RCMs. Along stake transects, we show that both models accumulate too much snow on crests, and not enough snow in valleys, as a result of erosion-deposition processes not included in MAR, where the drifting snow module has been switched off, and probably underestimated in RACMO2 by a factor of three. As a consequence, the amount of drifting snow sublimating in the atmospheric boundary layer remains a potentially large mass sink needed to be better constrained. Moreover, MAR generally simulates larger SMB and snowfall amounts than RACMO2 inland, whereas snowfall rates are significantly lower in MAR than in RACMO2 at the ice sheet margins. This divergent behaviour at the margins results from differences in model parameterisations, as MAR explicitly advects precipitating particles through the atmospheric layers and sublimates snowflakes in the undersaturated katabatic layer, whereas in RACMO2 precipitation is added to the surface without advection through the atmosphere. Consequently, we corroborate a recent study concluding that sublimation of precipitation in the low-level atmospheric layers is a significant mass sink for the Antarctic SMB, as it may represent ∼ 240 ± 25 Gt yr-1 of difference in snowfall between RACMO2 and MAR for the period 1979–2015, which is 10 % of the simulated snowfall loaded on the ice sheet and more than twice the surface snow sublimation as currently simulated by MAR.

scholarly journals A new approach to estimate ice dynamic rates using satellite observations in East Antarctica

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 1235-1245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bianca Kallenberg ◽  
Paul Tregoning ◽  
Janosch Fabian Hoffmann ◽  
Rhys Hawkins ◽  
Anthony Purcell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Elevation Changes ◽  
Ice Sheet Mass Balance ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Mass balance changes of the Antarctic ice sheet are of significant interest due to its sensitivity to climatic changes and its contribution to changes in global sea level. While regional climate models successfully estimate mass input due to snowfall, it remains difficult to estimate the amount of mass loss due to ice dynamic processes. It has often been assumed that changes in ice dynamic rates only need to be considered when assessing long-term ice sheet mass balance; however, 2 decades of satellite altimetry observations reveal that the Antarctic ice sheet changes unexpectedly and much more dynamically than previously expected. Despite available estimates on ice dynamic rates obtained from radar altimetry, information about ice sheet changes due to changes in the ice dynamics are still limited, especially in East Antarctica. Without understanding ice dynamic rates, it is not possible to properly assess changes in ice sheet mass balance and surface elevation or to develop ice sheet models. In this study we investigate the possibility of estimating ice sheet changes due to ice dynamic rates by removing modelled rates of surface mass balance, firn compaction, and bedrock uplift from satellite altimetry and gravity observations. With similar rates of ice discharge acquired from two different satellite missions we show that it is possible to obtain an approximation of the rate of change due to ice dynamics by combining altimetry and gravity observations. Thus, surface elevation changes due to surface mass balance, firn compaction, and ice dynamic rates can be modelled and correlated with observed elevation changes from satellite altimetry.

Uncertainties in Mass Balance Estimation of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Using Input-output Method

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yijing Lin ◽  
Yan Liu
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Data Uncertainty ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Ice Velocity ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
The Impact

<p>Input-Output method (IOM) is a common method for estimating ice sheet mass balance, which shows ice dynamics in mass loss to analyze the response of ice sheet to climate change. However, compared with the altimetry method and the gravity method, the mass balance estimation using IOM has relatively large uncertainty. Assessing the impact of the uncertainties of each component in IOM on the mass balance estimation is conducive to effectively lowering uncertainty in the Antarctic mass budget estimate but of which there has been little quantitative analysis. We assess the uncertainty in the mass balance due to methodological differences in IOM, compare the differences of surface mass balance (SMB, input) in diverse versions and at different spatial scales, and evaluate the uncertainty in ice discharge (FG, output) due to data uncertainty in ice thickness, ice velocity and grounding line. Results showed that the SMBs at different scales are more divergent than that in different versions, resulting in a variation of 216.7 Gt yr<sup>-1</sup> in Antarctica, of which the Antarctic peninsula accounts for 55.1%, followed by East Antarctica. The largest variation in FG due to uncertainty in the location of the grounding line is observed, where a 1 km retreat and a 1 km advance of the Antarctic grounding line would respectively result in FG reductions of 82.8 Gt yr<sup>-1</sup> and 272.7 Gt yr<sup>-1</sup>, which are significant in all regions, with the FG corresponding to a 1 km retreat of grounding line in the islands being closer to the multi-year average SMB of the islands. The difference in Antarctic FG due to different ice thickness products is 124.4 Gt yr<sup>-1</sup>, consistent with the trend in the thickness of ice shelves, and that due to different ice velocity products is only 18.7 Gt yr<sup>-1</sup>. Within the same margin of error, systematic errors in ice thickness and ice velocity result in an order of magnitude higher difference of FG than random errors.</p>

scholarly journals Estimation of the Antarctic surface mass balance using the regional climate model MAR (1979–2015) and identification of dominant processes

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 281-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Anais Orsi ◽  
Vincent Favier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Drifting Snow ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Snow Transport

Abstract. The Antarctic ice sheet mass balance is a major component of the sea level budget and results from the difference of two fluxes of a similar magnitude: ice flow discharging in the ocean and net snow accumulation on the ice sheet surface, i.e. the surface mass balance (SMB). Separately modelling ice dynamics and SMB is the only way to project future trends. In addition, mass balance studies frequently use regional climate models (RCMs) outputs as an alternative to observed fields because SMB observations are particularly scarce on the ice sheet. Here we evaluate new simulations of the polar RCM MAR forced by three reanalyses, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2, for the period 1979–2015, and we compare MAR results to the last outputs of the RCM RACMO2 forced by ERA-Interim. We show that MAR and RACMO2 perform similarly well in simulating coast-to-plateau SMB gradients, and we find no significant differences in their simulated SMB when integrated over the ice sheet or its major basins. More importantly, we outline and quantify missing or underestimated processes in both RCMs. Along stake transects, we show that both models accumulate too much snow on crests, and not enough snow in valleys, as a result of drifting snow transport fluxes not included in MAR and probably underestimated in RACMO2 by a factor of 3. Our results tend to confirm that drifting snow transport and sublimation fluxes are much larger than previous model-based estimates and need to be better resolved and constrained in climate models. Sublimation of precipitating particles in low-level atmospheric layers is responsible for the significantly lower snowfall rates in MAR than in RACMO2 in katabatic channels at the ice sheet margins. Atmospheric sublimation in MAR represents 363 Gt yr−1 over the grounded ice sheet for the year 2015, which is 16 % of the simulated snowfall loaded at the ground. This estimate is consistent with a recent study based on precipitation radar observations and is more than twice as much as simulated in RACMO2 because of different time residence of precipitating particles in the atmosphere. The remaining spatial differences in snowfall between MAR and RACMO2 are attributed to differences in advection of precipitation with snowfall particles being likely advected too far inland in MAR.

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