ATTAINMENT OF HIGHER ENROLLMENT RATES IN PAKISTAN: A MACROECONOMIC AND ECONOMETRIC STUDY

2012 ◽  
Vol 01 (07) ◽  
pp. 17-29
Author(s):  
Furrukh Bashir ◽  
Shahbaz Nawaz ◽  
Rahat Ullah ◽  
Muhammad Ramzan Arshad ◽  
Munwar Bagum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Labor Force ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
University Enrollment ◽  
Enrollment Rates ◽  
Short Run

Education is always considered as the major determinant for the development of any economy. Enrollment at various levels also shows that how much education is common within the citizens of the country. Considering the importance of enrollment, the current study examines the influence of some macroeconomic variables on various levels i.e. primary, secondary, higher, college, professional and university enrollment in Pakistan. Time series data has been gathered on consumer price index, government revenue, employed labor force, government expenditure, and health expenditure for the period from 1972 to 2010. For long run estimates, Johansen Co integration test is used and short run estimates are taken through error correction model. The results of the study exhibit positive association of employed labor force, government expenditure and health expenditure with primary, secondary, higher, college, professional and university enrollment in Pakistan. On the other side, consumer price index and government revenue have been found to be inversely influencing enrollment at various levels. Short run results are also much favorable for the economy and reveals convergence towards long run equilibrium due to any disturbances in the short run period. At the end study gives some policy implications that government should decrease consumer price index and tax rate and to increase government expenditure in terms of education and health for higher enrollment rates in Pakistan.

DETERMINANTS OF INFLATION IN PAKISTAN: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS USING JOHANSEN CO-INTEGRATION APPROACH

2011 ◽  
Vol 01 (05) ◽  
pp. 71-82
Author(s):  
Furrukh Bashir ◽  
Shahbaz Nawaz ◽  
Kalsoom Yasin ◽  
Usman Khursheed ◽  
Jahanzeb Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Inflation is regarded as regressive taxation against the poor. The most visible impact of inflation in recent times is its effect on real output, relative prices, taxes and interest rates. The study focuses to examine demand side and supply side determinants of inflation in Pakistan on economic and econometric criterion and also to investigate causal relationships among some macroeconomic variables. For that purpose, study has undertaken time series data for the period from 1972 to 2010. Long run and short run estimates have been investigated using Johansen Co-integration and Vector Error Correction approached. Causal relationships have been observed using Granger causality test. Data on macroeconomic variables have been selected from Handbook on Statistics of Pakistan 2010. The findings of the study reveal that in the long run consumer price index has found to be positively influenced by money supply, gross domestic product, imports and government expenditures on the other side government revenue is reducing overall price level in Pakistan. Long run elasticities of Price level with respect to money supply, gross domestic product, government expenditures, government revenue and imports are 0.61, 0.73, 0.32, -1.37 and 0.41 respectively. In the short run, last year consumer price index and two years before government revenue are directly involved in enhancing consumer price index of current year. Improvement in gross domestic product and government expenditures is necessary but it is suggested that there should be optimal level for all of them so that price level should be stable.

scholarly journals Government Size and Economic Growth in Vietnam: A Panel Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 222 ◽  
pp. 17-39
Author(s):  
THÀNH SỬ ĐÌNH
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Government Size ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
A Share

The effect of government relative size on economic growth is a contentious issue. This paper is undertaken to test the relationship between government size and economic growth in Vietnam. The study is a panel data investigation, involving 60 provinces over the period 1997–2012. Various measures of government size are defined: provincial government expenditure as a share of gross provincial product (GPP), provincial government revenue as a share of GPP, real provincial government expenditure per capita, and real provincial government revenue per capita. Empirical estimates are employed by conducting Difference Generalized Method of Moments method proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991) and Pooled Mean-Group method by Pesaran, et al. (1999). These tests reveal: (i) provincial government expenditure (revenue) as a share of GPP has a significantly negative effect on economic growth; and (ii) the real government expenditure (revenue) per capita has a significantly positive effect on economic growth. It is also found that the long-run and short-run coefficients of government expenditure size are significant and negative, that the correction mechanism from the short run disequilibrium to the long run equilibrium is not convergent, and that government employment has a negative correlation with economic growth.

scholarly journals Determinants of fiscal policy behavior in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Ologbenla
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Fiscal Behavior ◽  
Policy Behavior

The study investigated the factors that determine fiscal behavior in Nigeria. The vulnerability of fiscal policy framework in Nigeria to different shocks and the attendant effects on the behavior of fiscal policy are parts of the reasons that prompted this research work. Annual data between 1980 and 2015 on core fiscal variables such as government revenue, government expenditure, fiscal balance, public debt, as well as other variables such as oil price, exchange rate, and inflation rate commodity price among others, are used. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag ARDL estimating technique is used to analyze both the long-run and short-run effects of these variables on fiscal behavior in Nigeria. Findings from the study show that fiscal policy in Nigeria is highly vulnerable to shocks from these variables mostly in the short run. Notwithstanding, variables like government revenue, government expenditure, regime of administration, oil price and commodity price volatilities all have sustained effects till the long-run periods. It was discovered that oil price movements is not the only external factor that has pronounced effects on fiscal behavior, but commodity prices volatility generally constitutes an important influential factor in determination of fiscal policy behavior in Nigeria.

Analysis of Relationships and Causality between Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) in South Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Francois Meyer ◽  
Thomas Habanabakize
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Producer Price Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The variables the consumer price index (CPI), the producer price index (PPI) and the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and play major roles in economic forecasting. The overall objective of this study is to assess the inter-relationships between CPI, PPI and PMI as predicting variables. This study is quantitative in nature and employed an ARDL econometric model, error correction model (ECM) and Granger causality approaches to establish long and short-run relationships. The ARDL method was used due to the fact that the variables had a mix of stationarity at levels I (0) and the first difference I (1). Quarterly datasets were obtained from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) and the Bureau of Economic Research (BER) for the period 2000 to 2017. Results from the estimations discovered that variables cointegrate in the long-run. Additionally, evidence of short-run relationships has been determined using ECM. Furthermore, causal relationships were also analysed with results indicating that CPI causes PMI and PPI causes PMI. The implication of the research is the confirmation of the importance of relationships between CPI, PPI and PMI, which is especially significant in the short-run and the three index indicators are important macro-economic indicators for changes in overall economic activity on a macro level.

scholarly journals Government revenue and expenditure nexus in South Africa

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 256-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Esman Nyamongo ◽  
Niek Schoeman ◽  
Moses Sichei
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Unit Roots ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Seasonal Unit Roots ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This paper investigates the nexus between government expenditure and government revenue in South Africa within the framework of a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach. It uses the Hylleberg et al. (1990) method to test for seasonal unit roots and finds that government revenue and government expenditure have unit roots at all frequencies. The Johansen procedure test results reveal that these variables are cointegrated. It is further established that revenue and expenditure are linked bidirectionally by Granger causality in the long-run, while there is no evidence of Granger causalityin the short-run in South Africa.

Housing Bubble in Penang Prediction and Determinants

2015 ◽  
Vol 73 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Loh Yun Lu ◽  
Janice YM Lee ◽  
Usama Al-mulali ◽  
Nurul Afiqah Ahmad ◽  
Izran Sarrazin Mohammad
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
House Price ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Housing Bubble ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

House prices in Malaysian cities increased drastically in the past few years, notably in the state of Penang.  The existence of a housing bubble is speculated by major property players. This paper ascertains whether a housing bubble exists in Penang and explores the long-run and short-run determinants of Penang residential prices. Quarterly data (2000Q1 to 2012Q2) of House Price Index is the dependent variable and Gross Domestic Product, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Base Lending Rate (BLR) and Housing Supply as independent variables. Econometric model together with fully modified Ordinary Least Squares regression were used to detect the presence of housing bubble in Penang. The determinants of Penang house prices are based on Granger causality and variance decomposition analysis using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The results show no evidence of housing bubble in Penang housing market. CPI has both long-run and short run causality relationship with house prices while CPI and BLR explain a large part of housing price variance. Results show changes in inflation and cost of borrowing will greatly affect Penang house prices.  

scholarly journals MODES OF ISLAMIC FINANCING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Laily Dwi Arsyianti ◽  
Fadiyah Hasta Puspitasari ◽  
Marhamah Muthohharoh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Household Expenditure ◽  
Dummy Variable ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Economy System

Financing is expected to positively support economic growth, especially using Islamic contracts, which are strictly obliged to link the monetary and real sectors. Crises can devastate the financial and economy sectors, and also shock the real sector. This study aims to analyse the effect of Islamic-based financing on economic growth in Indonesia using the ARDL method. Gross fixed capital formation, household expenditure, government expenditure, exports, imports and the consumer price index, together with Islamic financing, are analysed in terms of their effect on economic growth in Indonesia during the period 2003-2018, in which the 2008 crisis is set as a dummy variable. Musharaka financing, which is based on profit-loss sharing, has a relationship with economic growth in the short run, but not in the long run. Furthermore, mudaraba financing unpredictably shows a negative relationship with economic growth, while Murabaha does not have significant effect in either short- or long-run estimation. The results imply that the prevailing economy system, which accommodates household expenditure, leads to an increase in economic growth, so is recommended as a priority sector for development. This study supports the notion that the current traditional economic stance may not suit the measurement of Islamic finance implication towards economic growth. The Maqasid sharia inclusiveness measurement is considered as an alternative estimation of the effect of modes of financing on economic growth.

scholarly journals The causal and cointegration relationship between government revenue and government expenditure

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-32
Author(s):  
Kebitsamang Anne Sere ◽  
Ireen Choga
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Short Run

This study determines the causal relationship that exists between government revenue and government expenditure in South Africa. The study employed annual time series data from the year 1980 to 2015 taken from the South African Reserve Bank. The Johansen multivariate method was employed to test for co-integration and for causality the Vector Error Correction/Granger causality test was employed. The empirical results suggest that there is a long-run relation-ship between government revenue and government expenditure. The causality result suggests that there is no causality between government revenue and government expenditure in South Africa. Thus, policy makers in the short run should determine government revenue and government expenditure of South Africa independently when reducing the budget deficit.

scholarly journals Drivers of Inflation in the Economy of Bahrain

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 178
Author(s):  
Ibrahem H. Al-Ezzee
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Cointegrating Vector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run

<p>The study tries to recognize the macroeconomic variables responsible for inflation in Bahrain during the period 1980-2010. For this purpose, co-integration test were used in the empirical analysis. Using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Phillips Perron (PP) tests, the variables of the study revealed to be integrated of the order one 1(1) at first difference. Cointegration test was used to state the existence or otherwise of a cointegrating vector in the variables. Trace and Maximum Eigen test value point out co-integration at 5% level of significance pointing to the fact that the variables have a long-run relationship.</p><p>The paper found that inflation in the short-run is effected by M2, GEXP, and WACPI supporting the long run analysis. The signs of NEER and IR are not as expected. The error correction term is negative and significant at 1%, so the model is stable and supporting the Co-integration results.</p><p>The variance decompositions (VDs) approach is used to capture the relative importance of various shocks and their influences on our variable of inflation. The relative variance of inflation is due the exchange rate and interest rate. The results show that shocks to the CPI itself, Nominal Effective Exchange Rate NEER, Nominal Interest Rate NIR, M2, Government Expenditure GEXP, and<strong> </strong>Consumer Price Index of Main Partners WACPI over all horizons.</p>

scholarly journals The Determinants of Worker Remittance in Terms of Foreign Factors: The Case of Bangladesh

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 81-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rezwanul Hasan Rana ◽  
Rubayyat Hashmi
Keyword(s):  
Labor Force ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Estimation Technique ◽  
Panel Estimation ◽  
Host Countries ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Country Specific

Abstract The aim of this study is to investigate the determinants of worker remittance of Bangladesh. Instead of traditional approach of estimating the remittance determinants, here we propose to use foreign macroeconomic indicators as a proxy determinant to avoid endogeneity. We also used panel estimation technique in our study to incorporate country specific heterogeneity of remittance inflow of Bangladesh. According our study any changes in the number of labor force, consumer price index, export, import, government expenditure and devaluation or appreciation of host countries (origin of the remittance income) currency can significantly influence the inward remittance income of Bangladesh.

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