scholarly journals Predicting project duration and cost, and selecting the best action plan using statistical methods for earned value management

2020 ◽  
pp. 157-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sajad Soltan ◽  
Maryam Ashrafi
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Project Duration

scholarly journals Prediction of Construction Project Duration and Cost using Earned Value Management

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1S3) ◽  
pp. 437-441
Keyword(s):  
Andhra Pradesh ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Construction Site ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Technique ◽  
Ongoing Project

Forecasting construction project duration for future with accurate efficiency by considering all the delay factors is a big deal. Various examinations have been done to evaluate the reasons for duration delays in a construction site. Most common similarity between many factors are flawed design, inadequate supervision in workplace, shortage of supplies, absence of teamwork and local climatic conditions, causes a myriad of issues. Here, for forecasting, we chose the construction of ROB project at Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh. Though many techniques have been implemented to solve out this problem, predicting completion of an ongoing project is a big deal. Various tools have been used such as earned value management, exponential smoothing technique. After applying these techniques, a comparison with a minimal percentage of error is made and the best tool for prediction is selected. This investigation prescribes Smoothing techniques, the results become better when compared with different procedures.

Stability and accuracy of deterministic project duration forecasting methods in earned value management

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexis Barrientos-Orellana ◽  
Pablo Ballesteros-Pérez ◽  
Daniel Mora-Melia ◽  
Maria Carmen González-Cruz ◽  
Mario Vanhoucke
Keyword(s):  
Control Technique ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Project Networks ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Stability And Accuracy ◽  
Accuracy And Stability

PurposeEarned Value Management (EVM) is a project monitoring and control technique that enables the forecasting of a project's duration. Many EVM metrics and project duration forecasting methods have been proposed. However, very few studies have compared their accuracy and stability.Design/methodology/approachThis paper presents an exhaustive stability and accuracy analysis of 27 deterministic EVM project duration forecasting methods. Stability is measured via Pearson's, Spearman's and Kendall's correlation coefficients while accuracy is measured by Mean Squared and Mean Absolute Percentage Errors. These parameters are determined at ten percentile intervals to track a given project's progress across 4,100 artificial project networks with varied topologies.FindingsFindings support that stability and accuracy are inversely correlated for most forecasting methods, and also suggest that both significantly worsen as project networks become increasingly parallel. However, the AT + PD-ESmin forecasting method stands out as being the most accurate and reliable.Practical implicationsImplications of this study will allow construction project managers to resort to the simplest, most accurate and most stable EVM metrics when forecasting project duration. They will also be able to anticipate how the project topology (i.e., the network of activity predecessors) and the stage of project progress can condition their accuracy and stability.Originality/valueUnlike previous research comparing EVM forecasting methods, this one includes all deterministic methods (classical and recent alike) and measures their performance in accordance with several parameters. Activity durations and costs are also modelled akin to those of construction projects.

Directed earned value management based on ordered fuzzy numbers

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Seyed Taha Hossein Mortaji ◽  
Siamak Noori ◽  
Morteza Bagherpour
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Lower Cost ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Monitoring And Control ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Project Monitoring ◽  
And Control

Earned value management is well-known as the most efficient method of project monitoring and control providing relatively reliable information about the project performance. However, this method requires accurate estimates of the progress of project activities, which are always associated with uncertainties that, if ignored or not addressed well, lead to incorrect results. To address this issue, the application of multi-valued logic, in particular fuzzy logic, in earned value management has recently attracted a lot of attention both in practice and research. This paper introduces directed earned value management (DEVM) in which ordered fuzzy numbers are used to express the so-called uncertainties as well as to capture more information about the trend of the project progress. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, several numerical examples and a case study are presented. The results reveal that compared to the existing methods, DEVM has a lower computational complexity. Also, it doesn’t suffer from the overestimation effect and as a result, it has a higher ability to express project-specific dynamics. In sum, the proposed method allows project managers to make informed decisions that lead to taking preventive and corrective actions promptly and at a lower cost.

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