Transportation and Air Quality. Perspectives and Projections in a Mediterranean Country. The Case of Greece

This study provides a thorough review and analysis of the evolution of the Greek vehicle fleet over the last ~30 years, which is next used for the generation of high granularity fleet projections and for the estimation of relevant environmental benefits by 2030. The integrated methodology developed takes also into account vehicle clustering and the Brown’s Double Simple Exponential Smoothing technique that together with the adoption of COPERT based emission factors allow for the estimation of the anticipated emissions in 2030. Expected 2030 emissions levels suggest a reduction across all pollutants in comparison to 2018, ranging from 3.7% for PM10 to 54.5% for NMVOC (and 46% for CO, 14% for SO2, 28% for NOX and 21% for CO2). We find that Greece is on track with national goals concerning the reduction of air pollution from the transportation sector, stressing the positive contribution of EVs and new, "greener" vehicles, and setting new challenges for the further improvement of the sector beyond the 2030 outlook.

Short and long forecast to implement predictive maintenance in a pulp industry

Predictive maintenance is very important for effective prevention of failures in an industry. The present paper describes a case study where a wood chip pump system was analyzed, and a predictive model was proposed. An Ishikawa diagram and FMECA are used to identify possible causes for system failure. The Chip Wood has several sensors installed to monitor the working conditions and system state. The authors propose a variation of exponential smoothing technique for short time forecasting and an artificial neural network for long time forecasting. The algorithms were integrated into a dashboard for online condition monitoring, where the users are alerted when a variable is determined or predicted to get out of the expected range. Experimental results show prediction errors in general less than 10 %. The proposed technique may be of help in monitoring and maintenance of the asset, aiming at greater availability.

Forecasting Malaysian Ringgit Using Exponential Smoothing Techniques

Forecasting the foreign currency exchange is a challenging task since it is influenced by political, economic and psychological factors. This paper focuses on the forecasting Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) exchange rate against the United States Dollar (USD) using Exponential Smoothing Techniques which are Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, and Holt’s method. The objectives of this paper are to identify the best Exponential Smoothing Technique that describes MYR for 5 years period and to forecast MYR 12 months ahead by using the best Exponential Smoothing Technique. The comparison between these techniques is also made and the best one will be selected to forecast the MYR exchange rate against USD. The result showed that Holt’s method has the smallest value of error measure which depending on the Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for the evaluation part. The MSE is 1.43915x10-14 and MAPE is 2.5413 x 10-6. Meanwhile, the forecast value of MYR in August 2019 is RM 4.30226.

Prediction of Construction Project Duration and Cost using Earned Value Management

Forecasting construction project duration for future with accurate efficiency by considering all the delay factors is a big deal. Various examinations have been done to evaluate the reasons for duration delays in a construction site. Most common similarity between many factors are flawed design, inadequate supervision in workplace, shortage of supplies, absence of teamwork and local climatic conditions, causes a myriad of issues. Here, for forecasting, we chose the construction of ROB project at Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh. Though many techniques have been implemented to solve out this problem, predicting completion of an ongoing project is a big deal. Various tools have been used such as earned value management, exponential smoothing technique. After applying these techniques, a comparison with a minimal percentage of error is made and the best tool for prediction is selected. This investigation prescribes Smoothing techniques, the results become better when compared with different procedures.