scholarly journals Prediction of Construction Project Duration and Cost using Earned Value Management

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1S3) ◽  
pp. 437-441
Keyword(s):  
Andhra Pradesh ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Construction Site ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Technique ◽  
Ongoing Project

Forecasting construction project duration for future with accurate efficiency by considering all the delay factors is a big deal. Various examinations have been done to evaluate the reasons for duration delays in a construction site. Most common similarity between many factors are flawed design, inadequate supervision in workplace, shortage of supplies, absence of teamwork and local climatic conditions, causes a myriad of issues. Here, for forecasting, we chose the construction of ROB project at Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh. Though many techniques have been implemented to solve out this problem, predicting completion of an ongoing project is a big deal. Various tools have been used such as earned value management, exponential smoothing technique. After applying these techniques, a comparison with a minimal percentage of error is made and the best tool for prediction is selected. This investigation prescribes Smoothing techniques, the results become better when compared with different procedures.

A Bayesian Approach to Project Control

2016 ◽  
pp. 832-844
Author(s):  
Franco Caron
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Reliable Estimate ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Project Data ◽  
Ongoing Project ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

The capability to elaborate a reliable estimate at completion for a project since the early stage of project execution is the prerequisite in order to provide an effective control of the project. The non-repetitive and uncertain nature of projects and the involvement of multiple stakeholders raise the need to exploit all the available knowledge sources in order to provide a reliable forecast. Therefore, drawing on a set of case studies, this paper proposes a Bayesian approach to support the elaboration of the estimate at completion in those industrial fields where projects are denoted by uncertainty and complexity. The Bayesian approach allows to integrate experts' opinions, data records from past projects and data related to the current performance of the ongoing project. Data from past projects are selected through a similarity analysis. The proposed approach shows a higher accuracy in comparison with the basic formulas typical of the Earned Value Management (EVM) methodology.

A Bayesian Approach to Project Control

2016 ◽  
pp. 125-137
Author(s):  
Franco Caron
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Reliable Estimate ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Project Data ◽  
Ongoing Project ◽  
The Bayesian Approach

The capability to elaborate a reliable estimate at completion for a project since the early stage of project execution is the prerequisite in order to provide an effective control of the project. The non-repetitive and uncertain nature of projects and the involvement of multiple stakeholders raise the need to exploit all the available knowledge sources in order to provide a reliable forecast. Therefore, drawing on a set of case studies, this paper proposes a Bayesian approach to support the elaboration of the estimate at completion in those industrial fields where projects are denoted by uncertainty and complexity. The Bayesian approach allows to integrate experts' opinions, data records from past projects and data related to the current performance of the ongoing project. Data from past projects are selected through a similarity analysis. The proposed approach shows a higher accuracy in comparison with the basic formulas typical of the Earned Value Management (EVM) methodology.

scholarly journals Usefulness and fields of the application of the Earned Value Management in the implementation of construction projects

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 357-364
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Dziadosz ◽  
Oleg Kapliński ◽  
Mariusz Rejment
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Construction Work ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Total Cost ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Project Realization

The Earned Value Method allows the prediction of future values of the total cost and duration of the construction project realization, and also it allows the early detection of the collisions between the schedule and the construction project budget. It is more often indicated its usefulness for monitoring and controlling the construction work progress in the time and cost formulation. It is used, in the indirect way, to control the risk in terms of the cost overruns of the construction project realization and in case of the failure to meet the deadline for completion of the construction project. The authors’ goal was not only to indicate the advantages of the method (widely discussed in the literature) but also to indicate some inaccuracies in the application of the Earned Value Method, which may affect the costs forecasting and the date of completion of the construction project. The conclusions are based on the analysis of several construction project realizations.

Stability and accuracy of deterministic project duration forecasting methods in earned value management

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexis Barrientos-Orellana ◽  
Pablo Ballesteros-Pérez ◽  
Daniel Mora-Melia ◽  
Maria Carmen González-Cruz ◽  
Mario Vanhoucke
Keyword(s):  
Control Technique ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Project Networks ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Stability And Accuracy ◽  
Accuracy And Stability

PurposeEarned Value Management (EVM) is a project monitoring and control technique that enables the forecasting of a project's duration. Many EVM metrics and project duration forecasting methods have been proposed. However, very few studies have compared their accuracy and stability.Design/methodology/approachThis paper presents an exhaustive stability and accuracy analysis of 27 deterministic EVM project duration forecasting methods. Stability is measured via Pearson's, Spearman's and Kendall's correlation coefficients while accuracy is measured by Mean Squared and Mean Absolute Percentage Errors. These parameters are determined at ten percentile intervals to track a given project's progress across 4,100 artificial project networks with varied topologies.FindingsFindings support that stability and accuracy are inversely correlated for most forecasting methods, and also suggest that both significantly worsen as project networks become increasingly parallel. However, the AT + PD-ESmin forecasting method stands out as being the most accurate and reliable.Practical implicationsImplications of this study will allow construction project managers to resort to the simplest, most accurate and most stable EVM metrics when forecasting project duration. They will also be able to anticipate how the project topology (i.e., the network of activity predecessors) and the stage of project progress can condition their accuracy and stability.Originality/valueUnlike previous research comparing EVM forecasting methods, this one includes all deterministic methods (classical and recent alike) and measures their performance in accordance with several parameters. Activity durations and costs are also modelled akin to those of construction projects.

scholarly journals OPTIMISING VALUE DURING CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULE ACCELERATION

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
W.P.M. Silva ◽  
◽  
S. Gunatilake ◽  
M.F.F. Fasna ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Research ◽  
Content Analysis ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Value Management ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Earned Value ◽  
Earned Value Management ◽  
Construction Schedule ◽  
The Relationship

Construction Schedule Acceleration (CSA) can affect not just the time but many other project aspects. During a CSA, there can be many impacts having significant effects on the project value. Previous studies have highlighted the importance of considering quality, productivity and functionality at a CSA along with cost and time. The aim of this research is, therefore, to investigate how value can be optimised during a CSA process. A qualitative research approach was adopted. Altogether, ten semi-structured interviews were conducted. The interview data were transcribed and analysed using a manually performed content analysis. This study has revealed types of CSA based on the purpose (delay minimising purpose or non-delay minimising purpose) and the party who initiates it. Cost, quality, functionality, productivity and profitability were identified as main value considerations during a CSA other than time. Applicability of value management (VM) job plan stages and Earned Value Management (EVM) indicators during different CSA stages to optimise value were also found. Finally, these findings were mapped in a framework to show how VM and EVM concepts could be used in enhancing value during a CSA. The framework conceptualises the relationship between “value” and CSA and how it varies upon distinct parties of a construction project during different stages and types of CSA. The proposed framework can be used as a guidance for optimising the value during the stages of a CSA.

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