scholarly journals Volatility Spillover Effects Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Turkey

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 343 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erick Lusekelo Mwambuli ◽  
Zhang Xianzhi ◽  
Zakayo S. Kisava
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Multinational Firm ◽  
Equal Weight ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Market Exchange ◽  
General Behaviour ◽  
Istanbul Stock Exchange

Volatility spillover effects between stock prices and exchange rates in emerging countries are a critical focus in the financial economics research arena. This paper focused to investigate the volatility spillover effects between stock prices and exchange rates of Istanbul stock exchange (ISE) by employing an exponential generalized autoregressive condition heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model. The period of study covered 11 years (i.e. 2005 to 2015) inclusive a period of the global financial crises (i.e. from 2005 to 2009) which resulted out from subprime mortgage in United States of America (USA).Our results suggest an existence of short run relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in Istanbul stock exchange (ISE).This empirical evidence suggest that there is symmetric volatility spillover between stock prices and exchange rates of Istanbul stock exchange (ISE) for full sample employed as a result good and bad news has got a balanced effect to the market. The findings of the significant volatility spillover effects between exchange rates and stock prices suggest that, the markets are informationally efficient and one market exchange rate has significant predictive power of equal weight to another in case of two markets. Our study recommends investors and multinational firm managers to consider the general behaviour of the financial market before making decision whether to invest in or not since there is existence of relationship and volatility spillover between stock prices and exchange rates meanwhile economic policy makers both in Turkey and outside Turkey should consider these findings in their policy as one of the determinant to economic growth, as macroeconomic variable should be stable like exchange rates. Furthermore, this study may be extended after including of other variables which were not considered in this study like interest rate, inflation and agency theory.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga, Inflasi Dan Nilai Kurs Terhadap Harga Saham Perusahaan Perhotelan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Per Triwulannya Periode 2016-2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 871-877
Author(s):  
Rahmat Dewa Bagas Nugraha ◽  
H.M Nursito
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Quantitative Study ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Ratio Analysis ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to determine and analyze the factors that affect stock prices through appropriate ratio analysis. As for the ratio of interest rates, inflation and exchange rates. Researchers want to know and analyze the effect partially or simultaneously between interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates on stock prices. This research is a quantitative study using secondary data. The object of this research is hotel companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2016-2018. The sample used in this study were 3 hotel with certain characteristics. The results of research simultaneously using the F test show that there is no influence between interest rates, inflation and exchange rates on stock prices because the calculated value is smaller than the table. Partially with the t test it can be concluded that there is no influence between interest rates on stock prices because the tcount value in the interest rate variable is smaller than the t table. Likewise, the t calculation of inflation and the exchange rate is smaller than the t table, so that there is no partial effect of the two variables on stock prices. Keywords: Stock Prices, Interest Rates, Inflation and Exchange Rates

scholarly journals The Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: The Focus on Dar Es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE)

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Fredynandy M John ◽  
Zakayo S Kisava
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Dar Es Salaam ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
Daily Data

This paper aims to examine the existing relationship between the prices of different stocks traded in the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE) and the Tanzanian Shillings – United States dollar exchange rates (TZS/USD). In this study, we use the daily data sets covering a period of six years from August 15, 2011 through July 28, 2017 making 1455 observations. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) – Granger Causality model is employed accompanied with several tests conducted on the variables and the model itself. The findings conclude that, there is a short-term association between Stock Prices (SP) and Exchange Rates (ExR). Additionally, Stock Prices Granger Causes Exchange Rates as evidenced by Granger Causality and the Impulse test. These findings are supported by the fact that shocks in the Exchange Rates have no effect in the Stock Prices. This could mean that an investor can invest in short term at the DSE.

How Does COVID-19 Affect the Volatility Spillover Between the Exchange Rate and the Export-oriented Businesses in Iran?

2022 ◽  
pp. 097215092110606
Author(s):  
Zahra Honarmandi ◽  
Samira Zarei
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
Risk Period ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Fractal Market Hypothesis

This study concentrates on examining the volatility spillover effects between the exchange rate (IRR to USD) and the leading export-oriented industries (i.e., petrochemical, basic metals and minerals) in Tehran Stock Exchange before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Using DCC- and asymmetric DCC-GARCH approaches, the data sample (from 15 December 2018 to 24 April 2021) has been partitioned into two sub-samples: before and after the official announcement of COVID-19 outbreak. The results demonstrate that from the pre- to post-COVID-19 periods, first, the average returns of all industries have sharply fallen; second, the volatility of all variables has been significantly augmented in different horizons; third, for all industries, not only has the fractal market hypothesis approved in both separated periods, but also analysing the values of the fractional difference parameter, together with the outcomes of GARCH models, supports in the higher-risk post-COVID-19 period, wherein the effects of exogenous shocks last longer than their impacts in the alternative lower-risk period. Furthermore, our investigations demonstrate that the asymmetric spillover (based on the ADCC-GARCH models) in both pre- and post-COVID-19 periods are confirmed in all three industries, except for minerals after the novel coronavirus.Ultimately, the results not only corroborate the increase in the volatility spillover effects right after the COVID-19 but also substantiate that the exchange rate contributes most of the spillover effects into the petrochemical and minerals industries, which have been almost twice as much as those of the basic metals.

Mixed integer programming approach for seasonal anomalies in stock markets: A case study for BIST

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 19-28
Author(s):  
Oguzhan Ahmet Arik
Keyword(s):  
Integer Programming ◽  
Mixed Integer Programming ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
Programming Approach ◽  
The Past ◽  
Istanbul Stock Exchange

This paper proposes a mixed integer programming approach for seasonal anomalies in stock markets and presents a case study for the XU030 index in the stock market of Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST). Stock markets are significant for economies of countries all over the world. Investors get economical wealth or lose some of their investment by selling and buying stocks. Therefore, buying and selling times of stocks are so important. This paper investigates a well-known effect called as ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ by proposing a MIP approach that searches best times for buying and selling of stocks in a year. Furthermore, this paper includes a numerical example of XU030 stock prices for the past 5 years and shows that most of the XU030 stocks have seasonal anomalies.Keywords: First keyword, second keyword, third keyword, forth keyword.

Return and volatility spillover effects between the Turkey and the Russia stock market

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Melih Kutlu ◽  
Aykut Karakaya
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Volatility Analysis ◽  
Economic Developments

PurposeThis study aimed to investigate return and volatility spillover between the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) and the Moscow Stock Exchange (RTS).Design/methodology/approachThis study used generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model for volatility and the Aggregate Shock (AS) model for return and volatility spillover. The data are divided into six sub-periods. Period events take place between Turkey and Russia.FindingsBIST investors considered the return and volatility of the RTS, it is observed that Moscow Stock Exchange investors considered only the return of BIST at the full sample. It is only a return spillover from BIST to RTS and neither the return nor the volatility of the RTS is spillover to BIST in the pre-crisis period. No evidence of return and volatility spillover between the BIST and the RTS in the post-crisis period. The returns and volatility spillovers between Russia and Turkey are mutual feedback in the jet crisis period.Practical implicationsEconomic developments between Turkey and Russia is growing rapidly in recent years. The return and volatility analysis between the stock exchanges of these two countries is important for investment decisions.Originality/valueThere are many studies in the literature about emerging markets. There are also Turkish and Russian stock exchanges in these studies. However, this study only examined return and volatility spillover analysis between the Turkish and Russian stock exchanges and prevents the results from being overlooked among other countries.

scholarly journals Volatility spillover effects between Islamic stock markets and exchange rates: Evidence from three emerging countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 322-333 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyfettin Erdoğan ◽  
Ayfer Gedikli ◽  
Emrah İsmail Çevik
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Volatility Spillover

scholarly journals Performances of LAD Regression, M-Regression and Quantile Regression Methods in order to Investigate Stock Prices of the Banks in the BIST Bank Index

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (04) ◽  
Author(s):  
Umran Munire Kahraman ◽  
Neslihan Iyit
Keyword(s):  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Robust Regression ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Standard Errors ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Istanbul Stock Exchange ◽  
Error Terms

In this study, performances of LAD regression, M-regression, Q25 and Q75 quantile regression models as robust regression methods alternative to the classical LS method are compared in the case of violations from the normality assumption of the error terms and the presence of an outlier. By using these alternative regression methods, stock prices of the 12 commercial banks and 1 participation bank listed in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST) bank index between 2012 and 2016 are investigated in terms of equity size and equity profitability. As a result of this study, M-regression is the most suitable robust regression model with the smallest value of the mean squared error (MSE) measure and the small values for the standard errors of the parameter estimates belonging to the equity size and equity profitability. The smaller the standard errors of the parameter estimates, the narrower the resulting confidence intervals are obtained in M- regression. The accuracy as a measure of closeness of parameter estimates to the true values of the parameters is also obtained higher in M-regression.

The Impact of Crises

2013 ◽  
pp. 1206-1221
Author(s):  
Emre Ergin
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
The Other ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Accounting Fraud ◽  
Istanbul Stock Exchange ◽  
Overreaction Hypothesis ◽  
The Impact

Stock markets are the barometers of an economy. They are very sensitive to the news and can measure economic pressures to forecast economy. They react momentarily to crises that might be triggered by such events as a currency crisis, a debt crisis, a political crisis, or an accounting fraud crisis. According to technical analysts, drastic decreases in stock prices recover from their crash value rapidly since these decreases are realized with low traded values. The overreaction hypothesis affirms that extreme price movements are subsequently adjusted by opposite direction. This chapter analyses these assertions by measuring the impacts of the crises on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) over the last decade. The duration of the crises and weekly negative abnormal percentage returns in the period of 01.01.2000-31.12.2011 are analyzed using a regression model. In this period, from a total of 621 weeks, 277 weeks have negative returns, 93 of which are identified as negative abnormal returns. The results are statistically significant, and suggest that the duration of the crises is related to the magnitude of negative returns. On the other hand, research shows that the duration of the crisis and traded value are positively correlated. This study offers empirical observations that would be useful for technical analysts and stock investors.

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