How Does COVID-19 Affect the Volatility Spillover Between the Exchange Rate and the Export-oriented Businesses in Iran?

2022 ◽  
pp. 097215092110606
Author(s):  
Zahra Honarmandi ◽  
Samira Zarei
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Exogenous Shocks ◽  
Risk Period ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Fractal Market Hypothesis

This study concentrates on examining the volatility spillover effects between the exchange rate (IRR to USD) and the leading export-oriented industries (i.e., petrochemical, basic metals and minerals) in Tehran Stock Exchange before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Using DCC- and asymmetric DCC-GARCH approaches, the data sample (from 15 December 2018 to 24 April 2021) has been partitioned into two sub-samples: before and after the official announcement of COVID-19 outbreak. The results demonstrate that from the pre- to post-COVID-19 periods, first, the average returns of all industries have sharply fallen; second, the volatility of all variables has been significantly augmented in different horizons; third, for all industries, not only has the fractal market hypothesis approved in both separated periods, but also analysing the values of the fractional difference parameter, together with the outcomes of GARCH models, supports in the higher-risk post-COVID-19 period, wherein the effects of exogenous shocks last longer than their impacts in the alternative lower-risk period. Furthermore, our investigations demonstrate that the asymmetric spillover (based on the ADCC-GARCH models) in both pre- and post-COVID-19 periods are confirmed in all three industries, except for minerals after the novel coronavirus.Ultimately, the results not only corroborate the increase in the volatility spillover effects right after the COVID-19 but also substantiate that the exchange rate contributes most of the spillover effects into the petrochemical and minerals industries, which have been almost twice as much as those of the basic metals.

scholarly journals Transmission Effects between Uncertainty and Stocks: From S&P to BIST100

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mine Gerni ◽  
Hatıra Sadeghzadeh Emsen ◽  
Ziya Çağlar Yurttançıkmaz ◽  
Ömer Selçuk Emsen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Istanbul Stock Exchange ◽  
The Us ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The economic political uncertainty (EPU) index developed by Berg et al. (2013) and the global economic political uncertainty (GEPU) index developed by Davids et al. (2016) revealed the existence of their strong relations with macroeconomic indicators in the US economy in general. Parallel to this power exhibited by the index, the interest towards it has started to be evaluated in terms of other countries. In this context, while the existence of studies investigating the relations between the index and the Istanbul Stock Exchange index is noteworthy, it has been determined that some of these researches have relations, and some of them not. The existence of spillovers from strong exchanges to stock markets of developing countries is defined as spillover effects in the literature. From this point of view, it is worth examining the existence of the relationship in question with indirect effects rather than investigating direct relationships between the GEPU and BIST100. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the existence of spillover effects from GEPU to S&P, from S&P to the exchange rate and from the exchange rate to the BIST100 index, respectively. According to the results of VAR analysis using four variables, it has been found that there are spillover effects from GEPU to S&P, from S & P to exchange rate and from exchange rate to BIST100. Consequently, it is observed that the changes in GEPU index that reflect the developments in the US economy affect Turkey’s stock market indirectly through spillover linkages.

Pengaruh Faktor Fundamental, Risiko Sistematis Dan Ekonomi Makro Terhadap Return Saham Syariah Yang Tergabung Di Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) Pada Periode 2010 – 2014

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-70
Author(s):  
Hasanah Setyowati ◽  
Riyanti Ningsih
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Systematic Risk ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Equity Ratio ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study aimed to obtain empirical evidence on the influence of fundamental factors, systematic risk and macroeconomics on the returns Islamic stock of companies incorporated in the Jakarta Islamic Index in 2010-2014. The variables used were the fundamental factors that are proxied by Earning Per Share (EPS), Return on Equity (ROE), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER); Systematic risk is proxied by Beta Shares; macroeconomic factors is proxied by the inflation rate and the exchange rate. The samples of this study are the enterprises incorporated in Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) at the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The sampling method was using purposive sampling. There were 12 samples of Islamic stocks that meet the criteria to be used as samples. The analysis model used is multiple linear regression techniques and the type of data used is secondary data. The study found that all variables, which are Earning Per Share (EPS), Return on Equity (ROE), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), Beta stock, inflation and the exchange rate do not significantly affect the return of sharia stock either simultaneously or partially.

scholarly journals Volatility Spillover of the Exchange Rate and the Global Economy on Iran Stock Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 343-356
Author(s):  
Ahmad Gholami ◽  
Ehsan Salimi Soderjani ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
The Exchange Rate

scholarly journals Effect of Exchange Rate Returns on Equity Prices: Evidence from South Africa and Nigeria

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 35
Author(s):  
Jibrin Daggash ◽  
Terfa W. Abraham
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Uk

This paper examines the exchange rate returns of the Rand (relative to the US dollar) and the Naira (relative to the US dollar) for the presence of volatility. It also examines the effect of the exchange rate returns on the performance of their respective stock market. While it was found that the returns of the South African Rand was volatile, the Nigerian naira was not. Estimating the effect of exchange rate returns and crude oil price on the stock market indices of both countries showed that exchange rate return have a positive effect on the performance of the Nigerian stock exchange thus, confirming the stock flow hypothesis for Nigeria and refuting same for South Africa. Although the VAR granger causality identifies short run fluctuation of the naira as a significant factor affecting the performance of the Nigerian stock exchange in the short run, the Johannesburg stock exchange was found to be mostly affected by short run changes in the Rand and the UK FTSE 100. The paper concludes that policies aimed at stabilizing exchange rate and encouraing more non-oil stocks to be quoted in the Nigerian stock exchange will important. For the Johanesburg stock exchange, raising the listing requirement for firms quoted in the UK FTSE 100 and also seeking listing or already listed in the JSE will be a plausible idea. For both countries, however, curtailing swings in their exchange rate returns would help attract new investments and sustain existing ones hence, helping to spur growth.

scholarly journals Econometric Model to Estimate Defaults on Payment in the Spanish Financial Sector in Oliver Wyman’s Stress Tests

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 24
Author(s):  
Salvador Climent-Serrano
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Stress Tests ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Model Based ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This work develops an econometric model based on the exogenous economic variables used in Oliver Wyman´s report. In this case the model is used in order to estimate late payments (NPLs) by Spanish credit entities. A model based on variables considered to be optimal to quantify impact on the NPLs is developed by studying the aforementioned variables, modifying them and eliminating any which are superfluous. Furthermore, whether or not the model is optimal for long periods of time is corroborated. This is due to the fact that the scenario in Oliver Wyman´s report from September 2012 (Wyman 2012) is based on 30 years of Spanish economical historical data, as stated in the report itself. The results indicate the variables that have impact on defaults. The increase in housing prices, the Madrid Stock Exchange Index, the Exchange Rate the euro against USD. The Euribor 12 months and the industries Credit to other residents, decreases the delinquency. The NPLs also fell by transfers from riskier assets to SAREB. However, these results are different if the economy is growing or in recession. So the results will not be optimal but the appropriate model is employed.

scholarly journals Asimetris Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Harga Saham Sektor Keuangan Periode 2013-2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 143-152
Author(s):  
Abdul Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Asymmetrical Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Asymmetrical Impact ◽  
Data Estimation

This paper examines the asymmetrical effect of the rupiah exchange rate on financial sector stock prices on the Indonesian stock exchange using the Non-Linear Autregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) method with monthly data. Estimation results show that interest rates and exchange rates affect the movement of stock prices in the financial sector, there is a long-term relationship between the exchange rate with financial sector stock prices, our results also show the asymmetrical impact of exchange rate variables on financial sector stock prices, we also find when the exchange rate is positive (appreciation ) the effect is lower than when the exchange rate is negative (depreciation).   Tulisan ini meneliti tentang efek asimetris kurs rupiah terhadap harga saham sektor keuangan di bursa efek Indonesia dengan menggunakan metode Non-Linier Autregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) dengan data bulanan.  Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa  suku bunga dan kurs berpengaruh terhadap pergerakan harga saham sektor keuangan, terdapat hubungan jangka panjang antara kurs dengan harga saham sektor keuangan, hasil kami juga menunjukkan dampak asimetris variabel kurs terhadap harga saham sektor keuangan, kami juga menemukan ketika kurs positif (apresiasi) pengaruhnya lebih rendah dibandingkan saat kurs negative (depresiasi).

PENGARUH INFLASI, TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA, KURS, HARGA MINYAK DUNIA DAN HARGA EMAS DUNIA TERHADAP IHSG DAN JII DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 285
Author(s):  
Umi Sartika
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
T Test ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
F Test ◽  
Closing Price ◽  
The Exchange Rate

ABSTRACT  The research aims to investigate empirically the influence of selected macroekonomic variables. The research design is associative. Independent variabel  are  inflation, Bank Indonesia certificate rate, the exchange rate of IDR, World Oil Price and World Gold Price on Indonesia Composite Index and Jakarta Islamic Index at The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). This paper examines the direct effect of selected macroeconomic variabel on Indonesia Composite Index and Jakarta Islamic Index. The data is taken from the monthly closing price of each dependent and independent variables. The sampling method used in this study is the sample saturated and obtained a sample of 60 months of data closing price. The data used are secondary data collection methods of data documentation. The analysis which used in this research is multiple linier regression analysis, F test and t test. The result of calculations using Eviews 8, showed that: the result hypothesis F test, obtained value of Fcompute > Ftable, means that there is the influence of inflation, Bank Indonesia certificate rate, the exchange rate of IDR, World Oil Price and World Gold Price together on Indonesia Composite Index and Jakarta Islamic Index. While result of the hypothesis t test, showed that inflation, Bank Indonesia certificate rate, the exchange rate of IDR, World Oil Price and World Gold Price partially had not influence on Indonesia Composite Index and Jakarta Islamic Index

Return and volatility spillover effects between the Turkey and the Russia stock market

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Melih Kutlu ◽  
Aykut Karakaya
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Volatility Analysis ◽  
Economic Developments

PurposeThis study aimed to investigate return and volatility spillover between the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) and the Moscow Stock Exchange (RTS).Design/methodology/approachThis study used generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model for volatility and the Aggregate Shock (AS) model for return and volatility spillover. The data are divided into six sub-periods. Period events take place between Turkey and Russia.FindingsBIST investors considered the return and volatility of the RTS, it is observed that Moscow Stock Exchange investors considered only the return of BIST at the full sample. It is only a return spillover from BIST to RTS and neither the return nor the volatility of the RTS is spillover to BIST in the pre-crisis period. No evidence of return and volatility spillover between the BIST and the RTS in the post-crisis period. The returns and volatility spillovers between Russia and Turkey are mutual feedback in the jet crisis period.Practical implicationsEconomic developments between Turkey and Russia is growing rapidly in recent years. The return and volatility analysis between the stock exchanges of these two countries is important for investment decisions.Originality/valueThere are many studies in the literature about emerging markets. There are also Turkish and Russian stock exchanges in these studies. However, this study only examined return and volatility spillover analysis between the Turkish and Russian stock exchanges and prevents the results from being overlooked among other countries.

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