scholarly journals Disposition Effect and Return Predictability in the Tunisian Stock Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Cheïma Hmida ◽  
Ramzi Boussaidi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Return Predictability ◽  
Capital Gains ◽  
Disposition Effect ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Return Reversal

The behavioral finance literature has documented that individual investors tend to sell winning stocks more quickly than losing stocks, a phenomenon known as the disposition effect, and that such a behavior has an impact on stock prices. We examined this effect in the Tunisian stock market using the unrealized capital gains/losses of Grinblatt & Han (2005) to measure the disposition effect. We find that the Tunisian investors exhibit a disposition effect in the long-run horizon but not in the short and the intermediate horizons. Moreover, the disposition effect predicts a stock price continuation (momentum) for the whole sample. However this impact varies from an industry to another. It predicts a momentum for “manufacturing” but a return reversal for “financial” and “services”.

A Sectoral Analysis of the Role of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Indian Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 911-923 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhu Sehrawat ◽  
A.K. Giri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The present study examines the relationship between Indian stock market and economic growth from a sectoral perspective using quarterly time-series data from 2003:Q4 to 2014:Q4. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach bounds test confirm the existence of a cointegrating relationship between sector-specific gross domestic product (GDP) and sector-specific stock indices. The empirical results reveal that sector-specific economic growth are significantly influenced by changes in the respective sector-specific stock price indices in the long run as well as in the short run. Apart from that, the control variables, such as trade openness and inflation, act as the instrument variables in explaining the variations in the sector-specific GDP of the economy. The results of Granger causality test demonstrate unidirectional long-run as well as short-run causality running from sector specific stock prices to respective sector GDP. The findings suggest that economic growth of the country is sensitive to respective sub-sector stock market investments. The findings highlight the reasons for cyclical and counter-cyclical business phase for the overall economy.

scholarly journals Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market

2007 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm Baker ◽  
Jeffrey Wurgler
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Individual Investor ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Limits To Arbitrage ◽  
Future Cash Flows

Investor sentiment, defined broadly, is a belief about future cash flows and investment risks that is not justified by the facts at hand. The question is no longer whether investor sentiment affects stock prices, but how to measure investor sentiment and quantify its effects. One approach is “bottom up,” using biases in individual investor psychology, such as overconfidence, representativeness, and conservatism, to explain how individual investors underreact or overreact to past returns or fundamentals The investor sentiment approach that we develop in this paper is, by contrast, distinctly “top down” and macroeconomic: we take the origin of investor sentiment as exogenous and focus on its empirical effects. We show that it is quite possible to measure investor sentiment and that waves of sentiment have clearly discernible, important, and regular effects on individual firms and on the stock market as a whole. The top-down approach builds on the two broader and more irrefutable assumptions of behavioral finance—sentiment and the limits to arbitrage—to explain which stocks are likely to be most affected by sentiment. In particular, stocks that are difficult to arbitrage or to value are most affected by sentiment.

A Study of Stock Price Behavior in Taiwan via Residual Income Valuation Theory and Structural Identification

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (04) ◽  
pp. 1250016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keshin Tswei ◽  
Chen-Yin Kuo
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Value Relevance ◽  
Residual Income ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Valuation Theory ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Residual Income Valuation

This study adopts the methodology introduced by Lee (2006) to analyze stock prices in response to information shocks in six of Taiwan's stock market sectors and present market anomalies utilizing behavioral finance theory. Using the Residual Income Model (RIM) of equity valuation, we specified our empirical model to identify structural fundamental and nonfundamental shocks from reduced-form tangible and intangible news, and we obtained three major results. First, fundamental shock is primarily induced by tangible news and nonfundamental shock by intangible news, suggesting that tangible-oriented RIM can capture the information content of stock prices. Second, impulse response analyses show that investors generally underreact to fundamental shocks and consistently overreact to nonfundamental shocks in the short-run. This finding is compatible with the overconfidence theory of Daniel et al. (1998) in behavioral finance literature. Third, information diffusion efficiency in a market appears to depend on the value relevance quality of its tangible information. This is based on our finding that when tangible information constitutes a higher share of a market's fundamental shock, its price converges faster to the long-run equilibrium associated with the shock.

scholarly journals DYNAMICS OF CONSUMER EXPENDITURE AND STOCK MARKET PRICES AND UNCERTAINTY: MALAYSIAN EVIDENCE

2013 ◽  
Vol 58 (04) ◽  
pp. 1350025
Author(s):  
MANSOR H. IBRAHIM ◽  
SIONG HOOK LAW
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Consumer Expenditure ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run

The present paper analyzes the role of stock market, more specifically real stock prices and stock market uncertainty/volatility, on private consumption behavior for an emerging market, Malaysia, using quarterly data from 1991 to 2009. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration test, the paper establishes a long-run equilibrium that ties private consumption to its determinants — real income, real stock prices, real lending rate, and stock market volatility. In the long run, the presence of the stock market wealth effect is documented. At the same time, the stock market volatility is also noted to depress private consumption particularly when the volatility is at the degree as observed during the Asian crisis. The authors further note the short-run influences of real stock price changes on consumption growth and the adjustment of private consumption to the long-run level when it is modeled in an error-correction setting. Our simple simulation indicates that the drop in the private consumption due to the decline in stock market wealth post-crisis is substantial, amounting to 2.7% of average post-crisis gross domestic product.

scholarly journals How Does Stock Prices Respond to Various Macroeconomic Factors? A Case Study of Pakistan

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 25-30
Author(s):  
Ayaz Khan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run

Over the time everything flourished, at the same token the interrelationship among the stock market prices, returns and macroeconomic factors got attendance of the researchers in the field of finance and economics around the world. In this respect current study is an attempt to investigate the response of various macroeconomic factors (GDP, Money Supply, inflation, exchange rate and Size of firm) toward stock market prices in case of Karachi stock exchange over a period of 1971 to 2012. The study utilizes Autoregressive Distributed lag model (ARDL) technique. The results shows that in long run each factor significantly contribute to the stock price while in shot run some factors were significant while some were not but the error correction term shows significant convergence toward equilibrium. The findings of study suggest that for smoothness of stock market the current factors must be targeted.

Equity Price Pressure from the 1998 Reduction in the Capital Gains Holding Period

2002 ◽  
Vol 24 (s-1) ◽  
pp. 70-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer L. Blouin ◽  
Jana Smith Raedy ◽  
Douglas A. Shackelford
Keyword(s):  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Capital Gains ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Capital Gains Tax ◽  
Marginal Tax Rate ◽  
Holding Period ◽  
Price Pressure

This paper provides evidence consistent with shareholders' personal tax incentives affecting stock prices and trading volume. On June 24, 1998, the marginal tax rate on capital gains was reduced from 28 percent to 20 percent for individual investors holding shares between 12 and 18 months. This study compares firms whose initial public shareholders immediately benefited from the reduction to other IPO firms. The sample of immediately affected firms recorded mean, incremental, one-day stock price declines of −1.3 percent amid heavy trading. The results are consistent with capital gains tax planning constraining investment portfolio management. When the constraint was lifted, enough shareholders sold that prices moved. The results imply that despite increasingly liquid capital markets, transaction costs remain large enough to prevent investors from entering the market immediately and fully offsetting downward price pressure from individual capital gains tax management.

Financial integration in emerging economies: an application of threshold cointegration

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sajid Ali ◽  
Mobeen Ur Rehman ◽  
Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad ◽  
Naveed Raza ◽  
Xuan Vinh Vo
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Good News ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Indian Stock Market

AbstractThe asymmetric short – and long-run relationships between BRICS stock markets are examined using monthly stock price data from January 2001 through December 2014. The asymmetric co-integration analysis confirms the presence of a long-run association between the BRICS stock markets; where, the speed of adjustment to the negative shocks is higher and statistically significant for the Brazil-India and China-India pairs, which indicates quick adjustment of stock prices to bad news compared to good news. Conversely, the speed of adjustment for Indian and South African stock markets is higher for positive shocks, while the relationship between the stock markets pair of Russia and South Africa is linear. The results of asymmetric error correction model (AECM) reveal evidence of bidirectional causality between China-India, India-South Africa and South Africa-Russia, while unidirectional causality runs from the Indian to Brazilian stock market. Thus, we can safely conclude that the Indian stock market has long-run and short-run relationships with most of the other stock markets. This suggests that investors should pay attention to the Indian stock market when investing in BRICS stock markets.

Macroeconomic Factors and Pakistani Equity Market”

2004 ◽  
Vol 43 (4II) ◽  
pp. 619-637 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Nishat ◽  
Rozina Shaheen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Reverse Causality ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Equilibrium Relationships

This paper analyzes long-term equilibrium relationships between a group of macroeconomic variables and the Karachi Stock Exchange Index. The macroeconomic variables are represented by the industrial production index, the consumer price index, M1, and the value of an investment earning the money market rate. We employ a vector error correction model to explore such relationships during 1973:1 to 2004:4. We found that these five variables are cointegrated and two long-term equilibrium relationships exist among these variables. Our results indicated a "causal" relationship between the stock market and the economy. Analysis of our results indicates that industrial production is the largest positive determinant of Pakistani stock prices, while inflation is the largest negative determinant of stock prices in Pakistan. We found that while macroeconomic variables Granger-caused stock price movements, the reverse causality was observed in case of industrial production and stock prices. Furthermore, we found that statistically significant lag lengths between fluctuations in the stock market and changes in the real economy are relatively short.

scholarly journals Building stock market resilience through digital transformation: using Google trends to analyze the impact of COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ding Ding ◽  
Chong Guan ◽  
Calvin M. L. Chan ◽  
Wenting Liu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Digital Transformation ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Price Performance ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

Abstract As the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic rages globally, its impact has been felt in the stock markets around the world. Amidst the gloomy economic outlook, certain sectors seem to have survived better than others. This paper aims to investigate the sectors that have performed better even as market sentiment is affected by the pandemic. The daily closing stock prices of a total usable sample of 1,567 firms from 37 sectors are first analyzed using a combination of hierarchical clustering and shape-based distance (SBD) measures. Market sentiment is modeled from Google Trends on the COVID-19 pandemic. This is then analyzed against the time series of daily closing stock prices using augmented vector autoregression (VAR). The empirical results indicate that market sentiment towards the pandemic has significant effects on the stock prices of the sectors. Particularly, the stock price performance across sectors is differentiated by the level of the digital transformation of sectors, with those that are most digitally transformed, showing resilience towards negative market sentiment on the pandemic. This study contributes to the existing literature by incorporating search trends to analyze market sentiment, and by showing that digital transformation moderated the stock market resilience of firms against concern over the COVID-19 outbreak.

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