scholarly journals Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market

2007 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm Baker ◽  
Jeffrey Wurgler
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Individual Investor ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Limits To Arbitrage ◽  
Future Cash Flows

Investor sentiment, defined broadly, is a belief about future cash flows and investment risks that is not justified by the facts at hand. The question is no longer whether investor sentiment affects stock prices, but how to measure investor sentiment and quantify its effects. One approach is “bottom up,” using biases in individual investor psychology, such as overconfidence, representativeness, and conservatism, to explain how individual investors underreact or overreact to past returns or fundamentals The investor sentiment approach that we develop in this paper is, by contrast, distinctly “top down” and macroeconomic: we take the origin of investor sentiment as exogenous and focus on its empirical effects. We show that it is quite possible to measure investor sentiment and that waves of sentiment have clearly discernible, important, and regular effects on individual firms and on the stock market as a whole. The top-down approach builds on the two broader and more irrefutable assumptions of behavioral finance—sentiment and the limits to arbitrage—to explain which stocks are likely to be most affected by sentiment. In particular, stocks that are difficult to arbitrage or to value are most affected by sentiment.

scholarly journals Disposition Effect and Return Predictability in the Tunisian Stock Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Cheïma Hmida ◽  
Ramzi Boussaidi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Return Predictability ◽  
Capital Gains ◽  
Disposition Effect ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Return Reversal

The behavioral finance literature has documented that individual investors tend to sell winning stocks more quickly than losing stocks, a phenomenon known as the disposition effect, and that such a behavior has an impact on stock prices. We examined this effect in the Tunisian stock market using the unrealized capital gains/losses of Grinblatt & Han (2005) to measure the disposition effect. We find that the Tunisian investors exhibit a disposition effect in the long-run horizon but not in the short and the intermediate horizons. Moreover, the disposition effect predicts a stock price continuation (momentum) for the whole sample. However this impact varies from an industry to another. It predicts a momentum for “manufacturing” but a return reversal for “financial” and “services”.

Impact of behavioral factors on investors’ financial decisions: case of the Egyptian stock market

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noura Metawa ◽  
M. Kabir Hassan ◽  
Saad Metawa ◽  
M. Faisal Safa
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Herd Behavior ◽  
Behavioral Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Effects

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the relationship between investors’ demographic characteristics (age, gender, education level and experience) and their investment decisions through behavioral factors (sentiment, overconfidence, overreaction and underreaction and herd behavior) as mediator variables in the Egyptian stock market. Design/methodology/approach This paper collects data from a structured questionnaire survey carried out among 384 local Egyptian, foreign, institutional and individual investors. This paper used a partial multiple regression method to analyze the effect of investors’ demographic characteristics on investment decisions through behavioral factors as the mediator variable. Findings Investor sentiment, overreaction and underreaction, overconfidence and herd behavior significantly affect investment decisions. Also, age, gender and the level of education have significant positive effects on investment decisions by investors. Experience does not play a significant role in investment decisions, but as investors gain experience, they tend to overlook the emotional factors. Practical implications The findings of this paper would help to understand common behavioral patterns of investors and indicate a path toward the growth of the Egyptian stock market. Originality/value There is a lack of research in behavioral finance covering Middle East and North African markets. This paper attempts to fulfill the gap by analyzing behavioral factors in the Egyptian market.

Categorizing sentiment and its impact on REIT returns

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (9) ◽  
pp. 958-973 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Huerta ◽  
Dave O. Jackson ◽  
Thanh Ngo
Keyword(s):  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Institutional Investor ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Individual Investor ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Portfolio Rebalancing ◽  
Multiple Sample ◽  
Security Pricing ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to reexamine the impact of investor sentiment on real estate investment trust (REIT) returns using direct, survey-based measures of sentiment to categorize sentiment from institutional and individual investors. Design/methodology/approach – The authors provide a framework in which sentiment is classified into individual and institutional investor sentiment under the assumption that investors, depending on sophistication, react differently to the same set of information and will influence REIT prices differently. The authors employ a methodology that uses panel regression analyses and divides the sample of REITs into size and performance portfolios. Findings – The regression results suggest that institutional investor sentiment is positively and significantly related to REIT returns contemporaneously for multiple sample specifications. These results are consistent with high levels of institutional ownership in REITs. Results also suggest that individual investor sentiment only influences small capitalization and low-α portfolios. Originality/value – The findings provide more evidence on the influence of investor sentiment on security pricing even for highly regulated sectors such as the REIT industry. Investors may use changes in sentiment as signals for portfolio rebalancing and capital allocations.

scholarly journals The Impact of Financial Information on Noise Traders: Based on the Perspective of Behavioral Finance

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Miao Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Investor Behavior ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Noise Traders ◽  
Healthy Development ◽  
Noise Trading ◽  
Financial Media ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Excessive Noise

<p>In China's incomplete stock market which mainly consists of retail games and short-term operations, both of the high stock turnover rate and P/E ratios reflect excessive noise trading. This article focuses on the characteristic that individual investors are susceptible to financial media information, combined with the development and characteristics of financial media. From the perspective of behavioral finance, this paper analyzes the impact of financial media on noise trading. Using behavioral finance and psychology-related knowledge, investor behavior can be better understood, so as the motivation behind noise trading. Finally, in order to promote the healthy development of the stock market, this paper makes recommendations to improve the efficiency of the capital market.</p>

scholarly journals Stock Prediction Based on Optimized LSTM and GRU Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Ya Gao ◽  
Rong Wang ◽  
Enmin Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Dimension Reduction ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
Stock Market Forecasting ◽  
Important Research Topic ◽  
Reduction Methods ◽  
The Many

Stock market prediction has always been an important research topic in the financial field. In the past, inventors used traditional analysis methods such as K-line diagrams to predict stock trends, but with the progress of science and technology and the development of market economy, the price trend of a stock is disturbed by various factors. The traditional analysis method is far from being able to resolve the stock price fluctuations in the hidden important information. So, the prediction accuracy is greatly reduced. In this paper, we design a new model for optimizing stock forecasting. We incorporate a range of technical indicators, including investor sentiment indicators and financial data, and perform dimension reduction on the many influencing factors of the retrieved stock price using depth learning LASSO and PCA approaches. In addition, a comparison of the performances of LSTM and GRU for stock market forecasting under various parameters was performed. Our experiments show that (1) both LSTM and GRU models can predict stock prices efficiently, not one better than the other, and (2) for the two different dimension reduction methods, both the two neural models using LASSO reflect better prediction ability than the models using PCA.

scholarly journals Measuring Stock Market Investor Sentiment

2012 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisca Beer ◽  
Mohamed Zouaoui
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Relative Performance ◽  
Relative Efficacy ◽  
Noise Traders

Recently, investor sentiment measures have become one of the more widely examined areas in behavioral finance. A number of measures have been developed in the literature without having been fully validated, and therefore leaving in question which measure should be used for empirical exploration. The purpose of this study is to examine the relative performance of a number of popular measures in predicting stock returns and to test the relative efficacy of a hybrid approach. Using a panel of investor sentiment measures, we develop a new measure of sentiment which combines direct and indirect sentiment measures. Our results show that our composite sentiment index affects the returns of stocks hard to value and difficult to arbitrage consistent with the predictions of noise traders models. Finally, we find that our composite index has a better predictive ability than the alternative sentiment measures largely used in the literature.

scholarly journals Investor Sentiment in Stock Market: A Case of Pakistan Super League in Pakistan Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-121
Author(s):  
FURQAN ULLAH ◽  
MUHAMMAD ASIF ◽  
MUHAMMAD ZAHID ◽  
FAIZA MEHREEN
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Abnormal Return ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Sports Events ◽  
Investor Sentiments ◽  
Super League

This study investigates whether sentiments play any role while investors make financial decisions which results in the stock returns. The paper analyzes the major two sports events (2016-2017) of Pakistan Super League (PSL). The study utilizes the stock market data from Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX)-100 index for the period of two financial years starting from June 2015 to July 2017. PSL T20 data is collected from the official PSL website. The empirical results of the studyshow that PSL sports events are highly statistically significant and imply that the events trigger investor sentiments (optimistic and pessimistic behaviors) in the PSX.When the whole PSL games were played on United Arab Emirates (UAE) grounds in 2016, later on, which badly affected the investor moods and resulted in a negative abnormal return in PSX-100 index. While in case of PSL event in 2017, in which only final match of the event was held in Lahore, Pakistan and resulted in a positive abnormal return in PSX-100 index. The study provides implications for different authorities such as Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB), PSX and other development authorities in order to promote such activities for the overall economic and social benefits. While founding no previous studies concerning the subject in the Pakistani context, the Scholar selected the issue to conduct a research and make a considerable contribution for investors in Pakistan with respect to PSL events and its impact on PSX. Keywords: Investor Sentiments, Stock returns, behavioral finance, Pakistan Super League, Pakistan Stock Exchange

scholarly journals The Behavior Patterns of Investors in Thailand Stock Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 155
Author(s):  
Quan Nhu Tran
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Behavior Patterns ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
True Value ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Depth Interview ◽  
Decision Making Processes

The purpose of this paper is to investigate behavioral patterns expressed by investors in the Thailand stock market. The paper examines investment decision-making processes in the context of the current financial market in Thailand to shed some light on behavioral-induced pattern behind such investments. Data for this research was collated from 8 individual investors by semi-structured and in-depth interview. There are four behavioral factors of individual investors in Thailand Stock Exchange: Overconfidence, Excessive Optimism, Psychology of risk, and Herding Behavior. Securities Companies may also use the findings of this research for better understanding on investors’ decision to give better recommendations to them. Stock prices then reflect their true value and Thailand stock market becomes the yardstick of the economy’s wealth and helps enterprises to raise capital for business activities.

scholarly journals Predictive ability of accruals before and after IFRS in the Brazilian stock market

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (78) ◽  
pp. 375-389
Author(s):  
Terence Machado Boina ◽  
Marcelo Alvaro da Silva Macedo
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Discretionary Accruals ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Accounting Quality ◽  
Convenience Sample ◽  
Accounting Choices ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Future Cash Flows

ABSTRACT This study aimed to analyze and assess the predictive ability of discretionary accruals (DAs) and non-discretionary accruals (NDAs) for forecasting future cash flows before and after the convergence with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in Brazil. The study is warranted due to the scarcity of research in Brazil on the subject and is relevant because it aims to shed light on whether the changes occurring due to convergence with IFRS in Brazil have improved accounting quality. The accounting choices of managers and accountants in the Brazilian stock market, enabled by IFRS, contribute to an apparent improvement in accounting quality in terms of reliability, the faithful representation of entities’ equity and financial positions, and in particular, the predictive ability for forecasting future cash flows. The population was composed of publicly traded companies listed on the Bovespa and São Paulo Stock, Commodities, and Futures Exchange (BM&FBovespa) in 2004 to 2007 and 2010 to 2015. The non-probability convenience sample is composed of 715 enterprises, once companies from the “finance and insurance” and “funds” sectors and even those considered as “holding” were excluded. The data were pooled by year, as they contain different companies over the time series (unbalanced panel data). The DAs and NDAs produced prior to full convergence with IFRS are negative and statistically significant for predicting future cash flows in the Brazilian stock market, which indicated opportunistic/contractual earnings management. One of the possible explanations for this would be the influence of government tax authorities on Brazilian accounting norms, which could induce managers to manipulate accounting results with the aim of reducing earnings in order to pay fewer taxes, for example. The DAs and NDAs produced after IFRS are positive and statistically significant for predicting future cash flows in the Brazilian stock market, signaling the motivation of discretionary accounting choices under the informational aspect. Current DAs and NDAs add informational power compared to current aggregate accruals. It has also been observed that the current DAs and NDAs originating after IFRS in Brazil, compared to current aggregate accruals, have an informational gain in relation to those produced before.

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