The Impact of The Covid-19 Pandemic on Investor Risk Tendency: The Case of Turkey

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 2941-2944
Author(s):  
Abdulkadir kaya
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Risk Appetite ◽  
Central Registry ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Impact

Introduction and Aim: It is an important issue that what kind of changes occur in the risks that people face in the face of emerging problems and the role of people in possible pandemics in the last twenty years and in the future. The solution of the problems that arise in the control and management of these risks attracts the attention of many researchers. In this study, the causality effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on risk appetites representing the attitudes and behaviors of securities investors. Materials and Methods: In the study; To represent the pandemic, weekly time series data of the number of COVID-19 cases (COVID) and the Risk Appetite index (RISK) announced by the Central Registry Agency for the period 30.03.2019-30.08.2021 were used. In order to determine the causality relationship, the Hatemi-J Causality test was performed. Results: It was determined that the negative shocks of the COVID variable were a cause of the positive shocks of the RISK variable at a statistical significance level of 1%. Conclusion and Suggestions: The effect of the pandemic process on the investment decisions of the investors is reduced, with the expectation that the economy and financial markets will improve, positively affecting the behavior and risk perceptions of the investors, and this expectation causes the investment behavior and risk appetite to increase. can be expressed. Keywords: COVID-19, Risk appetite, Pandemic, Hatemi-J

The Impact of The Covid-19 Pandemic on Investor Risk Tendency: The Case of Turkey

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. 3046-3049
Author(s):  
Abdulkadir Kaya
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Risk Appetite ◽  
Central Registry ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Impact

Introduction and Aim: It is an important issue that what kind of changes occur in the risks that people face in the face of emerging problems and the role of people in possible pandemics in the last twenty years and in the future. The solution of the problems that arise in the control and management of these risks attracts the attention of many researchers. In this study, the causality effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on risk appetites representing the attitudes and behaviors of securities investors. Materials and Methods: In the study; To represent the pandemic, weekly time series data of the number of COVID-19 cases (COVID) and the Risk Appetite index (RISK) announced by the Central Registry Agency for the period 30.03.2019-30.08.2021 were used. In order to determine the causality relationship, the Hatemi-J Causality test was performed. Results: It was determined that the negative shocks of the COVID variable were a cause of the positive shocks of the RISK variable at a statistical significance level of 1%. Conclusion and Suggestions: The effect of the pandemic process on the investment decisions of the investors is reduced, with the expectation that the economy and financial markets will improve, positively affecting the behavior and risk perceptions of the investors, and this expectation causes the investment behavior and risk appetite to increase. can be expressed. Keywords: COVID-19, Risk appetite, Pandemic, Hatemi-J

scholarly journals IMPACT OF PETROLEUM PRODUCT PRICE ON HUMAN WELFARE IN NIGERIA

10.23856/2906 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 27-42
Author(s):  
Olukayode Emmanuel Maku ◽  
S. Adetayo Adetowubo-King ◽  
O., Oyelade Aduralere
Keyword(s):  
Market Failure ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Product Price ◽  
Human Welfare ◽  
Dual Purpose ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
The Impact

The single most important issue confronting a growing number of world economies today is the price of oil and its attendant consequences on economic output. Therefore the study investigated the impact of petroleum pump price on human welfare in Nigeria over the period 1990 to 2015. The study employed expost facto research design. Secondary time series data were used for the study and these were sourced from World Development Indicator (WDI, 2015) and Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin, (CBN, 2015). The data collected were analyzed using autoregressive distributed lag. The inferences were drown at 1% and 5% significance level. The result showed that premium motor spirit price and dual purpose kerosene price exert a long-run negative and significant impact on human welfare in Nigeria (β = -0.15299, t = -5.31141 and β = -0.471399, t = -1.8838 respectively) while premium motor spirit price, dual purpose kerosene price and inflation rate exert a short-run negative and significant impact on human welfare in Nigeria (β = -0.71735, t= -4.3766; β = -0.62562, t = -2.9188 and β = -0.050310, t = -2.1829 respectively). The study concluded that as premium motor spirit price and dual purpose kerosene price and inflation rate increases, human welfare will fall and vice versa. Therefore for human welfare to increase, there must be a fall in premium motor spirit price and dual purpose kerosene price and inflation rate in Nigeria. The study recommended that Government and it agencies should ensure that petroleum pump prices should be regulated because they have a long way on the market. An increase in the price of petroleum products will lead to market failure because most products use either of these products. Since inflation rate worsen the welfare of people, the policy maker should find a way of control inflation in the system so that the welfare of the people will improve (better-off).

scholarly journals Econometric Modelling: Testing of Randomness,Volatility, Casualty and Cointegration of Emerging Stock Market Indices of India and MIST Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 1402-1417
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Good News ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Lm Test ◽  
The Impact

In general, stock market indices are widely interrelated to the other global markets to detect the impact of diversification opportunities. The present research paper empirically examines randomness and long term equilibrium affiliation amongst the emerging stock market of India and Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey from the monthly time series data during February 2008 to October 2019. The researcher employs by the way, Run test, Pearson’s correlation test, Johnsen’s multivariate cointegration test, VECM and Granger causality test with reference to post-September 2008 Global financial crisis. The test results of the above finds that Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex is significantly cointegrated either among themselves or with MIST countries particularly during the post-September Global financial crisis. No random walk is found during the study period. The ADF (Augmented DickeyFuller) and PP (Phillips Pearson) tests evidenced stationarity at the level, but converted into non-stationarity in first difference. Symmetric and asymmetric volatility behaviors are studied using GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH models in order to test which model has the best forecasting ability. Leverage effect was apparent during the study period. So the influx of bad news has a bigger shock or blow on the conditional variance than the influx of good news. The residual diagnostic test (Correlogram-Squared residuals test, ARCH LM test and Jarque-Bera test) confirms GARCH (1,1) as the best suited model for estimating volatility andforecasting stock market index.

scholarly journals FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, WORKERS’ REMITTANCES AND PRIVATE SAVING IN PAKISTAN: AN ARDL BOUND TESTING APPROACH

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 1216-1234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Ali Raza
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Unique Contribution ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Private Savings ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and workers’ remittances on private savings of Pakistan. This study employs ARDL bound testing co-integration approach, rolling window analysis, Granger causality test, Toda and Yamamoto Modified Wald causality test and variance decomposition test. Results indicate the significant positive impact of FDI and workers’ remittances on private savings in the long and short run. Causality analyses confirm the bidirectional causal relationship of FDI and workers’ remittances with private savings. It is recommended that policy makers should form friendly policies to attract more FDI and workers’ remittances in the country which leads to increase private savings in Pakistan. This leads to increase more fund for financial intermediaries to increase domestic investment opportunities in the country. This paper makes a unique contribution to the literature with reference to Pakistan, being a pioneering attempt to investigate the impact of FDI and workers’ remittances on private savings of Pakistan by using the long annual time series data and applying more rigorous econometric techniques.

scholarly journals Relationship between Corruption and FDI Inflow: A Causality Test

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-99
Author(s):  
Abdelhamid A. Mahboub ◽  
Hatem Hassan Garamon
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Developed Countries ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the relationship between the inflow of foreign direct investment and corruption. By using 2006 – 2015 time series data from 19 developed countries and 18 developing countries, it starts by testing the Granger causality between these two variables. It finds that causality direction goes from corruption to foreign direct investment. After making the time series data stationary, the study runs regression analysis for each country group separately. Significant and strong impact of corruption on foreign direct investment is found for each group, and the impact is even stronger for the developed countries. Data from each group could not support the hypothesis of ‘greasing the wheels of business’, which is used for justifying soft treatment of corruption in some countries. Policy implication is to stand strong against corruption in order to promote the inflow of foreign direct investment.

scholarly journals Comparison of six statistical methods for interrupted time series studies: empirical evaluation of 190 published series

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon L. Turner ◽  
Amalia Karahalios ◽  
Andrew B. Forbes ◽  
Monica Taljaard ◽  
Jeremy M. Grimshaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Statistical Method ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Empirical Evaluation ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Standard Errors ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The Interrupted Time Series (ITS) is a quasi-experimental design commonly used in public health to evaluate the impact of interventions or exposures. Multiple statistical methods are available to analyse data from ITS studies, but no empirical investigation has examined how the different methods compare when applied to real-world datasets. Methods A random sample of 200 ITS studies identified in a previous methods review were included. Time series data from each of these studies was sought. Each dataset was re-analysed using six statistical methods. Point and confidence interval estimates for level and slope changes, standard errors, p-values and estimates of autocorrelation were compared between methods. Results From the 200 ITS studies, including 230 time series, 190 datasets were obtained. We found that the choice of statistical method can importantly affect the level and slope change point estimates, their standard errors, width of confidence intervals and p-values. Statistical significance (categorised at the 5% level) often differed across the pairwise comparisons of methods, ranging from 4 to 25% disagreement. Estimates of autocorrelation differed depending on the method used and the length of the series. Conclusions The choice of statistical method in ITS studies can lead to substantially different conclusions about the impact of the interruption. Pre-specification of the statistical method is encouraged, and naive conclusions based on statistical significance should be avoided.

scholarly journals External Debt and Economic Growth of Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Sajuyigbe, Ademola ◽  
A. Odetayo, Tajudeen ◽  
Z. Adeyemi, Adewumi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

The study investigates the impact of external debt on economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1999-2015. The data for this study was obtained mainly from secondary sources mainly from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletins and Debt Management Office. Time series data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a proxy for Economic Growth, External Debt Stock (EXDS), External Debt Service Payment (EDSP), and Exchange Rate (EXGR) were used for the analysis. The techniques of Estimation employed in the study include Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Johansen Co-integration, Vector Error Correction Mechanism and Granger Causality Test. Results show that external debt has an inverse effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Subsequently, the study recommends that government should empower Debt Management Office to set the mechanism in place, ensure that loans are utilised for purposes they are meant for and prosecute corrupt public officers who siphoned the money.

scholarly journals Determinants of private domestic investment in Palestine: time series analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibrahim M. Awad ◽  
Ghada K. Al-Jerashi ◽  
Zaid Ahmad Alabaddi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Critical Issue ◽  
Background Information ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis empirical paper aims to examine the impact of interest rate (IR) and political instability (POLINS) on Palestine's domestic private investment.Design/methodology/approachA set of econometric techniques of time series data are adopted to meet the study objectives. They include regression analysis, unit root tests, cointegration test, ARDL & Bound tests, VAR test and Granger causality test.FindingsThe study's primary results complement the neoclassical approach, which states that the IR is negatively associated with domestic private investment. The empirical results reveal that there is no long-run relationship. Also, there is no causality between domestic investment and lending rates. Accordingly, these findings alert policymakers to draw a series of steps to minimize the IR at a minimum to stimulate investment for improved economic growth and development.Practical implicationsThere is still no national currency in Palestine. The Palestinian Monetary Authority (PMA) is advised to set an appropriate ratio of the IR for the currencies-in-circulation in Palestine for boosting investment and economic development.Originality/valueThis paper provides new background information to both policymakers and researchers on the main determinants of investment in Palestine using econometric analysis. Accordingly, this critical issue is required to be examined in Palestine for stimulating investment.

scholarly journals Subjective/ Behavioural Factors Influence the PSI 20 and IBEX 35

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Stefan Abrantes Costa ◽  
Pedro Manuel Nogueira Reis ◽  
Antonio Pedro Soares Pinto
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Institutional Development ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Behavioural Factors ◽  
The Impact

This study assesses the impact of investor sentiment on the volatility of the PSI 20 and IBEX 35 from time series data from January 1988 to May 2019. The impact of investor sentiment on market and portfolio selection has aroused great interest in the literature, however the results obtained are not consensual, considering the different methodologies used to build sentiment indices, as well as the various levels of institutional development in the market.Asymmetric volatility behaviours according to good or bad news were evaluated using the TGARCH model. The results indicate that there is an asymmetric effect of good versus bad news on the volatility of IBEX 35. It was also noted that for Portugal and Spain investor sentiment presents statistical significance with a negative sign, suggesting that market volatility is more sensitive to negative shocks in the conditional variance. In Portugal, contrary to Spain, sentiment has no relevance on return. The study reveals that investor sentiment is a key factor in selecting investment in the market. The relationship that this establishes with volatility, can help to implement policies that allow to minimize future shocks’ impact on return. The study reveals for the first time that investor sentiment is a key factor in selecting investment in the market for Portugal.

scholarly journals Impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth in Rwanda: 1961-2018

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Ruranga ◽  
Daniel S. Ruturwa ◽  
Valens Rwema
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of trade on economic growth in Rwanda. This paper uses exports and imports for trade and gross domestic product for economic growth. Research questions were formulated as (1) Are exports, imports and economic growth cointegrated? (2) Is there a long or short run relationship between those Variables? (3) Are there any causal relationships between factors (4) what the direction of the causality is it? Annual time series data from World Development Indicators for the period from 1961 to 2018 have been used. The methods of linear regression for estimation of Vector Auto regressions models have been used. Our findings established that VAR was appropriate model, and GDP, Exports were stationary at first differences while Imports was stationary at second difference but not at levels. Hence the two series were integrated of order one and the third one was integrated of order two. Tests of cointegration indicates that the three variables were not cointegrated, implying there was no long run equilibrium relationship between the three series. The causality test indicated that exports and imports influenced GDP. On the other hand, we found that there was a strong evidence of unidirectional causality from exports to economic growth. However, there was bidirectional causality between GDP and imports. These results provide evidence that exports and imports, thus, were seen as the source of economic growth in Rwanda.

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