Abstract. Air temperature increases thermally degrade permafrost, which has widespread
impacts on engineering design, resource development, and environmental
protection in cold regions. This study evaluates the potential thermal
degradation of permafrost over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) from the 1960s
to the 2000s using estimated decadal mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) by
integrating remote-sensing-based estimates of mean annual land surface
temperatures (MASTs), leaf area index (LAI) and fractional snow cover values,
and decadal mean MAAT date from 152 weather stations with a geographically
weighted regression (GWR). The results reflect a continuous rise of
approximately 0.04 ∘C a−1 in the decadal mean MAAT values over
the past half century. A thermal-condition classification matrix is used to
convert modelled MAATs to permafrost thermal type. Results show that the
climate warming has led to a thermal degradation of permafrost in the past
half century. The total area of thermally degraded permafrost is
approximately 153.76×104 km2, which corresponds to
88 % of the permafrost area in the 1960s. The thermal condition of 75.2 %
of the very cold permafrost, 89.6 % of the cold permafrost, 90.3 % of the
cool permafrost, 92.3 % of the warm permafrost, and 32.8 % of the very
warm permafrost has been degraded to lower levels of thermal condition.
Approximately 49.4 % of the very warm permafrost and 96 % of the likely
thawing permafrost has degraded to seasonally frozen ground. The mean
elevations of the very cold, cold, cool, warm, very warm, and likely thawing
permafrost areas increased by 88, 97, 155, 185, 161, and
250 m, respectively. The degradation mainly occurred from the 1960s to the
1970s and from the 1990s to the 2000s. This degradation may lead to increased
risks to infrastructure, reductions in ecosystem resilience, increased flood risks, and positive climate feedback effects. It therefore affects the
well-being of millions of people and sustainable development at the Third
Pole.