scholarly journals Prediction of Global Solar Radiation in Abu Dhabi

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Assi ◽  
Mohammed Jama ◽  
Maitha Al-Shamisi
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Quadratic Function ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Third Order ◽  
Al Ain ◽  
The City

Mathematical expressions have been employed to estimate global solar radiation on horizontal from relative sunshine duration for two weather stations in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which are Abu Dhabi and Al Ain. These expressions include the original Angstrom-Prescott regression function (linear), quadratic function, third-order function, single-term exponential function, power function, logarithmic, and linear-logarithmic function. The predicted values were compared to the measured values using number of statistical methods to validate the goodness of the fits, such as residual analysis and goodness of fit statistics. All the used mathematical models performed generally well in both cities of Abu Dhabi and Al Ain, with all values of the coefficient of determination (R2) higher than 75%. Specifically, the linear Angstrom-Prescott model estimated the average monthly global radiation on horizontal best for the city of Abu Dhabi, providing the second lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.89% and the highest value of R2, which is approximately 94%, while the third-order model proved to be the best estimator for the city of Al Ain, providing the lowest MAPE value (3.06%) and a corresponding R2 of 83%.

scholarly journals Comparative Study of Ground Measured, Satellite-Derived, and Estimated Global Solar Radiation Data in Nigeria

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boluwaji M. Olomiyesan ◽  
Onyedi D. Oyedum
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Comparative Study ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Statistical Error ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Radiation Data ◽  
Proposed Model

In this study, the performance of three global solar radiation models and the accuracy of global solar radiation data derived from three sources were compared. Twenty-two years (1984–2005) of surface meteorological data consisting of monthly mean daily sunshine duration, minimum and maximum temperatures, and global solar radiation collected from the Nigerian Meteorological (NIMET) Agency, Oshodi, Lagos, and the National Aeronautics Space Agency (NASA) for three locations in North-Western region of Nigeria were used. A new model incorporating Garcia model into Angstrom-Prescott model was proposed for estimating global radiation in Nigeria. The performances of the models used were determined by using mean bias error (MBE), mean percentage error (MPE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2). Based on the statistical error indices, the proposed model was found to have the best accuracy with the least RMSE values (0.376 for Sokoto, 0.463 for Kaduna, and 0.449 for Kano) and highest coefficient of determination, R2 values of 0.922, 0.938, and 0.961 for Sokoto, Kano, and Kaduna, respectively. Also, the comparative study result indicates that the estimated global radiation from the proposed model has a better error range and fits the ground measured data better than the satellite-derived data.

scholarly journals Estimation of monthly global solar radiation in Buenos Aires: preliminary analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 669-680
Author(s):  
Susan G. Lakkis ◽  
Mario Lavorato ◽  
Pablo O. Canziani
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Buenos Aires ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Third Order ◽  
Sunshine Hours

Six existing models and one proposed approach for estimating global solar radiation were tested in Buenos Aires using commonly measured meteorological data as temperature and sunshine hours covering the years 2010-2013. Statistical predictors as mean bias error, root mean square, mean percentage error, slope and regression coefficients were used as validation criteria. The variability explained (R2), slope and MPE indicated that the higher precision could be excepted when sunshine hours are used as predictor. The new proposed approach explained almost 99% of the RG variability with deviation of less than ± 0.1 MJm-2day-1 and with the MPE smallest value below 1 %. The well known Ångström-Prescott methods, first and third order, was also found to perform for the measured data with high accuracy (R2=0.97-0.99) but with slightly higher MBE values (0.17-0.18 MJm-2day-1). The results pointed out that the third order Ångström type correlation did not improve the estimation accuracy of solar radiation given the highest range of deviation and mean percentage error obtained.  Where the sunshine hours were not available, the formulae including temperature data might be considered as an alternative although the methods displayed larger deviation and tended to overestimate the solar radiation behavior.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the artificial neural network based on the estimation of daily average global solar radiation in the city of Surabaya

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 1245
Author(s):  
Adi Kurniawan ◽  
Anisa Harumwidiah
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Average Percentage ◽  
Daily Average ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Average Percentage Error ◽  
The City

The estimation of the daily average global solar radiation is important since it increases the cost efficiency of solar power plant, especially in developing countries. Therefore, this study aims at developing a multi layer perceptron artificial neural network (ANN) to estimate the solar radiation in the city of Surabaya. To guide the study, seven (7) available meteorological parameters and the number of the month was applied as the input of network. The ANN was trained using five-years data of 2011-2015. Furthermore, the model was validated by calculating the mean average percentage error (MAPE) of the estimation for the years of 2016-2019. The results confirm that the aforementioned model is feasible to generate the estimation of daily average global solar radiation in Surabaya, indicated by MAPE of less than 15% for all testing years.

scholarly journals Sunshine-based Global Solar Radiation Modelling: Case Study of Putrajaya, Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yun Ii Go ◽  
Kheng Yew Tsung
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Building Integrated Photovoltaic

Electricity demands are on the rise and with it, carbon dioxide emissions from many conventional power plants are increasing. In the efforts to mitigate such phenomena, the Malaysian government seeks to implement Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) projects. Early stage studies on Global Solar Radiation (GSR) have been carried out in several states in Malaysia including Penang, Kuala Lumpur and Kota Bharu. Afterward, data from the Malaysia Meteorological Department and the Malaysia National University have been used to estimate the monthly average daily global radiation in various locations in Malaysia. Putrajaya, a location which is implementing Malaysian Building Integrated Photovoltaic (MBIPV) is among the locations where a GSR study is currently absent. Conventional methods exist for GSR estimation with the aid of pyranometer. However, this method of GSR estimation is time consuming and not cost-effective practice. The main objective of this study is to estimate the GSR in Putrajaya. This is achieved in this study by utilizing sunshine-based data with calculated monthly average daily extraterrestrial radiation on a horizontal surface and monthly average maximum possible daily sunshine to plot a linearly fitted graph. Coefficients in the Angstrom-Prescott (A-P) model was generated from the plotted graph and was used for GSR estimation where a = 0.5 and b = 0.11. The mean percentage error (MPE) of the GSR estimation was found to be 3.4. Therefore, the estimation of GSR in Putrajaya have been successful for the first-time using sunshine-based data from dual locations method. The GSR estimation of Putrajaya in this study could benefit stakeholders in civil development sectors, policy and energy authorities.

scholarly journals Performance Evaluation of Models Established for the Estimation of Diffused Solar Radiation: Case Study Lahore, Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-119
Author(s):  
Saif Ur Rehman ◽  
Muhammad Shoaib ◽  
Imran Siddiqui ◽  
S. Zeeshan Abbas
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Statistical Error ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Clearness Index ◽  
Diffuse Solar Radiation

A suitable design of solar power project requires accurate measurements of solar radiation for the site ofinvestigation. Such measurements play a pivotal role in the installation of PV systems. While conducting such studies,in general, global solar radiation (GSR) is recorded, whereas diffuse component of solar radiation on a horizontalsurface is seldom recorded. The objective of the present study is to assess diffuse solar radiation (DSR) on horizontalsurfaces by using polynomial models for Lahore, Pakistan (27.89 N, 78.08 E) and by correlating clearness index withdiffuse fraction. The established models are compared with some of the existing models from the literature.Performance of models is evaluated by employing five goodness-of-fit (GoF) tests that are, mean bias error (MBE),root mean square (RMSE), Coefficient of Determination (R2), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Akaike’sInformation Criterion (AIC). The comparison of the results of goodness-of-fit tests with those of existing modelsindicate that the models established in the present study are performed better as compared to the existing models. Thevalues of statistical error analysis further suggested that a cubic model with a good accuracy of 97.5% and AIC of -22.8is relatively more suitable for this climatic region for estimating diffuse solar radiation. The study shows that the modeldeveloped is in good agreement with Elhadidy and Nabi model with an accuracy of 96.1% and AIC of 4.4 andsatisfactory results are obtained for Lahore. The findings can help to give a generous understanding of solar radiation inorder to optimize the solar energy conversion systems. The results of this study provide a better understanding of theassociations between global solar radiation, clearness index and diffused fraction for the region under study.

scholarly journals COEFICIENTES DE ANGSTRÖM-PRESCOTT PARA ESTIMAR A RADIAÇÃO SOLAR GLOBAL EM CAMPOS DOS GOYTACAZES, RJ

Irriga ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 481-491
Author(s):  
José Carlos Mendonça ◽  
Andre Dalla Bernardina Garcia ◽  
Jonathan Nogueira Franco
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Maximum Error ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Emax Model ◽  
Mass Coefficient ◽  
The City

COEFICIENTES DE ANGSTRÖM-PRESCOTT PARA ESTIMAR A RADIAÇÃO SOLAR GLOBAL EM CAMPOS DOS GOYTACAZES, RJ     JOSÉ CARLOS MENDONÇA¹; ANDRE DALLA BERNARDINA GARCIA² E JONATHAN NOGUEIRA FRANCO³   ¹ Laboratório de Engenharia Agrícola – LEAG, Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminense Darcy Ribeiro, Av. Alberto Lamego, 2000, Parque Califórnia, Campos dos Goytacazes, RJ, Brasil. [email protected] ² Laboratório de Engenharia Agrícola – LEAG, Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminense Darcy Ribeiro, Av. Alberto Lamego, 2000, Parque Califórnia, Campos dos Goytacazes, RJ, Brasil. [email protected] ³ Laboratório de Engenharia Agrícola – LEAG, Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminense Darcy Ribeiro, Av. Alberto Lamego, 2000, Parque Califórnia, Campos dos Goytacazes, RJ, Brasil. [email protected]     1 RESUMO   Para reduzir custos com equipamentos utilizados na estimativa da radiação solar, geralmente são realizadas estimativas a partir de um modelo utilizando a irradiância solar, como Angström-Prescott. Esse trabalho teve por objetivo obter os coeficientes, mensais, utilizados na equação de Angström-Prescott para estimativa da Radiação Solar Global no município de Campos dos Goytacazes, RJ. Foram utilizados dados meteorológicos entre os anos de 1998 a 2020 para obtenção dos valores de horas de insolação (n), máximo de horas de insolação diária (N), radiação solar global no topo da atmosfera (Ra) e radiação solar global (Rs) mensalmente estimados. Os resultados foram validados por meio dos índices de concordância (D), erro médio absoluto (MAE), erro máximo (EMAX), eficiência do modelo ou método (EF), índice de desempenho (c) e coeficiente residual de massa (CRM). Para a região de estudo, os coeficientes “a” e “b” encontrados foram 0,0191 e 0,9486, respectivamente, considerando-se os valores anuais. Os índices estatísticos “D” e “c” foram 0,977 e 0,94, respectivamente, sendo classificados como ótimos. A partir dos resultados e obtidos é possível utilizar apenas um heliógrafo para estimar a radiação global com ótima precisão, em cada um dos meses individualmente, para a cidade de Campos dos Goytacazes.   Palavras-chave: climatologia, agrometeorologia, modelagem.     MENDONÇA, J. C., GARCIA, A. D. B., FRANCO, J. N. MONTHLY ANGSTRÖM-PRESCOTT COEFFICIENTS TO ESTIMATE GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION IN CAMPOS DOS GOYTACAZES, RJ     2 ABSTRACT   To reduce costs with equipment used to estimate solar radiation, estimates are usually made based on a  model that uses solar irradiance, such as Angström-Prescott. This work aimed to obtain monthly coefficients, using the Angström-Prescott equation to estimate Global Solar Radiation in the city of Campos dos Goytacazes, RJ. Meteorological data from 1998 to 2020 were used to obtain values ​​of hours of sunshine (n), maximum hours of daily sunshine (N), global solar recording at the top of the atmosphere (Ra) and global solar radiation (Rs) monthly estimated. The results were validated using  agreement indexes (D), mean absolute error (MAE), maximum error (EMAX), model or method efficiency (EF), performance index (c) and residual mass coefficient (CRM). For the study region, coefficients "a" and "b" found were 0.0191 and 0.9486, respectively, considering the annual values. The statistical indexes "D" and "c" were 0.977 and 0.94, respectively, and were classified as great. Based on the results, it is possible to use only a heliograph to estimate global radiation with maximum precision, in each month, individually, for the city of Campos dos Goytacazes.   Keywords: climatology, agrometeorology, modeling.

scholarly journals Estimating Daily Global Solar Radiation with No Meteorological Data in Poland

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 778
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Kleniewska ◽  
Dorota Mitrowska ◽  
Michał Wasilewicz
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Average Percentage ◽  
Average Percentage Error

The aim of the study was to calibrate coefficients and evaluate performance of simple, day-of-the-year, global solar radiation (H) models nominated from the literature. Day-of-the-year models enable estimation of global solar radiation when no meteorological data is available. The study used 16-year-long data series of daily H, taken at 15 actinometric stations located in various parts of Poland. The goodness-of-fit of the models to the actual long-term monthly average daily global solar radiation data expressed by determination coefficient (R2) ranges from 0.94 to 0.97. Depending on statistical indicators analysis (root mean square error—RMSE, mean absolute bias error—MABE, mean average percentage error—MAPE) the best model was selected. The averaged values of H computed by the recommended model deviate from those measured by 4.16% to 8.71%. Locally calibrated, day-of-the-year model provides satisfactory accuracy and—where meteorological data is unavailable—can be used to estimate mean monthly daily global solar radiation in Poland and similar climate conditions.

scholarly journals Performance Evaluation of Models Established for the Estimation of Diffused Solar Radiation: Case Study Lahore, Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-119
Author(s):  
Saif Ur Rehman ◽  
Muhammad Shoaib ◽  
Imran Siddiqui ◽  
S. Zeeshan Abbas
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Statistical Error ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Clearness Index ◽  
Diffuse Solar Radiation

A suitable design of solar power project requires accurate measurements of solar radiation for the site ofinvestigation. Such measurements play a pivotal role in the installation of PV systems. While conducting such studies,in general, global solar radiation (GSR) is recorded, whereas diffuse component of solar radiation on a horizontalsurface is seldom recorded. The objective of the present study is to assess diffuse solar radiation (DSR) on horizontalsurfaces by using polynomial models for Lahore, Pakistan (27.89 N, 78.08 E) and by correlating clearness index withdiffuse fraction. The established models are compared with some of the existing models from the literature.Performance of models is evaluated by employing five goodness-of-fit (GoF) tests that are, mean bias error (MBE),root mean square (RMSE), Coefficient of Determination (R2), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Akaike’sInformation Criterion (AIC). The comparison of the results of goodness-of-fit tests with those of existing modelsindicate that the models established in the present study are performed better as compared to the existing models. Thevalues of statistical error analysis further suggested that a cubic model with a good accuracy of 97.5% and AIC of -22.8is relatively more suitable for this climatic region for estimating diffuse solar radiation. The study shows that the modeldeveloped is in good agreement with Elhadidy and Nabi model with an accuracy of 96.1% and AIC of 4.4 andsatisfactory results are obtained for Lahore. The findings can help to give a generous understanding of solar radiation inorder to optimize the solar energy conversion systems. The results of this study provide a better understanding of theassociations between global solar radiation, clearness index and diffused fraction for the region under study.

scholarly journals Forecasting of Solar Radiation using an Empirical Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 01 (02) ◽  
pp. 212-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Djelloul BENATIALLAH ◽  
Kada BOUCHOUICHA ◽  
Ali BENATIALLAH ◽  
Abdelkader HARROUZ ◽  
Bahous Nasri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Energy Needs ◽  
Natural Energy ◽  
The Mean

Global demand for energy is increasing rapidly and natural energy resources such as oil, gas and uranium are declining due to the widespread diffusion and development of the industry in recent years. To cover energy needs, research is being conducted on renewable energy. One of the renewable energies that can meet the world's demand so far is solar energy, which is free and inexhaustible in most parts of the world, and it has become an economic source. In this article we will make a forecast of the empirical Campbell model which will allow us to estimate the daily global irradiation on a horizontal plane and to compare it with the results measured at the Adrar site. The results show that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) less than 7%, the mean bias error does not exceed 3% in absolute value, relative RMSE does not exceed 7% and the correlation coefficient greater than 0.99 for the annual global radiation. It was concluded that this model could be used to predict the global solar radiation for Adrar site and for other sites with similar climatic conditions.

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