scholarly journals Global warming and monsoon climate

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 245-262
Author(s):  
M. LAL ◽  
SANJEEV K. SINGH
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Sulfate Aerosols ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Near Surface

The response of the Asian summer monsoon to transient increases of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sulfate aerosols in the Earth's atmosphere is examined using the data generated in numerical experiments with available coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (A-O GCMs). A comparison of observed and model-simulated trends in monthly mean near-surface temperature and rainfall over the region provides evidence of skill of the A-O GCMs in simulating the regional climatology. The potential role of the sulfate aerosols in obscuring the GHG- induced warming over the Indian subcontinent is discussed. Even though the simulated total seasonal rainfall over the Indian subcontinent during summer monsoon season is underestimated in most of the A-O GCMs, the year to year variability in simulated monsoon rainfall over the study region is found to be in fair agreement with the observed climatology.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in European and North Atlantic Seasonal Wind Climate Derived from CMIP5 Simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (19) ◽  
pp. 6467-6490 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimmo Ruosteenoja ◽  
Timo Vihma ◽  
Ari Venäläinen
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North ◽  
Seasonal Wind ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract Future changes in geostrophic winds over Europe and the North Atlantic region were studied utilizing output data from 21 CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). Changes in temporal means, extremes, and the joint distribution of speed and direction were considered. In concordance with previous research, the time mean and extreme scalar wind speeds do not change pronouncedly in response to the projected climate change; some degree of weakening occurs in the majority of the domain. Nevertheless, substantial changes in high wind speeds are identified when studying the geostrophic winds from different directions separately. In particular, in northern Europe in autumn and in parts of northwestern Europe in winter, the frequency of strong westerly winds is projected to increase by up to 50%. Concurrently, easterly winds become less common. In addition, we evaluated the potential of the GCMs to simulate changes in the near-surface true wind speeds. In ocean areas, changes in the true and geostrophic winds are mainly consistent and the emerging differences can be explained (e.g., by the retreat of Arctic sea ice). Conversely, in several GCMs the continental wind speed response proved to be predominantly determined by fairly arbitrary changes in the surface properties rather than by changes in the atmospheric circulation. Accordingly, true wind projections derived directly from the model output should be treated with caution since they do not necessarily reflect the actual atmospheric response to global warming.

scholarly journals The PreVOCA experiment: modeling the lower troposphere in the Southeast Pacific

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 4757-4774 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. C. Wyant ◽  
R. Wood ◽  
C. S. Bretherton ◽  
C. R. Mechoso ◽  
J. Bacmeister ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Regional Models ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Forecast Models

Abstract. The Preliminary VOCALS Model Assessment (PreVOCA) aims to assess contemporary atmospheric modeling of the subtropical South East Pacific, with a particular focus on the clouds and the marine boundary layer (MBL). Models results from fourteen modeling centers were collected including operational forecast models, regional models, and global climate models for the month of October 2006. Forecast models and global climate models produced daily forecasts, while most regional models were run continuously during the study period, initialized and forced at the boundaries with global model analyses. Results are compared in the region from 40° S to the equator and from 110° W to 70° W, corresponding to the Pacific coast of South America. Mean-monthly model surface winds agree well with QuikSCAT observed winds and models agree fairly well on mean weak large-scale subsidence in the region next to the coast. However they have greatly differing geographic patterns of mean cloud fraction with only a few models agreeing well with MODIS observations. Most models also underestimate the MBL depth by several hundred meters in the eastern part of the study region. The diurnal cycle of liquid water path is underestimated by most models at the 85° W 20° S stratus buoy site compared with satellite, consistent with previous modeling studies. The low cloud fraction is also underestimated during all parts of the diurnal cycle compared to surface-based climatologies. Most models qualitatively capture the MBL deepening around 15 October 2006 at the stratus buoy, associated with colder air at 700 hPa.

scholarly journals The Surface-Pressure Signature of Atmospheric Tides in Modern Climate Models

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
pp. 495-514 ◽  
Author(s):  
Curt Covey ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Dan Marsh ◽  
Richard S. Lindzen
Keyword(s):  
Surface Pressure ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Atmospheric Tides ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Low Altitude ◽  
Upper Boundary

Abstract Although atmospheric tides driven by solar heating are readily detectable at the earth’s surface as variations in air pressure, their simulations in current coupled global climate models have not been fully examined. This work examines near-surface-pressure tides in climate models that contributed to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); it compares them with tides both from observations and from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), which extends from the earth’s surface to the thermosphere. Surprising consistency is found among observations and all model simulations, despite variation of the altitudes of model upper boundaries from 32 to 76 km in the IPCC models and at 135 km for WACCM. These results are consistent with previous suggestions that placing a model’s upper boundary at low altitude leads to partly compensating errors—such as reducing the forcing of the tides by ozone heating, but also introducing spurious waves at the upper boundary, which propagate to the surface.

scholarly journals Reducing uncertainties in satellite estimates of aerosol-cloud interactions over the subtropical ocean by integrating vertically resolved aerosol observations

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Painemal ◽  
Fu-Lung Chang ◽  
Richard Ferrare ◽  
Sharon Burton ◽  
Zhujun Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Orthogonal Polarization ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Error Characterization ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract. Satellite quantification of aerosol effects on clouds relies on aerosol optical depth (AOD) as a proxy for aerosol concentration or cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). However, the lack of error characterization of satellite-based results hampers their use for the evaluation and improvement of global climate models. We show that the use of AOD for assessing aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) is inadequate over vast oceanic areas in the subtropics. Instead, we postulate that a more physical approach that consists of matching vertically resolved aerosol data from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite at the cloud-layer height with Aqua Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud retrievals reduces uncertainties in satellite-based ACI estimates. Combined aerosol extinction coefficients (σ) below cloud-top (σBC) from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and cloud droplet number concentrations (Nd) from Aqua-MODIS yield high correlations across a broad range of σBC values, with σBC quartile correlations > 0.78. In contrast, CALIOP-based AOD yields correlations with MODIS Nd of less than 0.62 for the two lower AOD quartiles. Moreover, σBC explains 41 % of the spatial variance in MODIS Nd, whereas AOD only explains 17 %, primarily caused by the lack of spatial covariability in the eastern Pacific. Compared with σBC, near-surface σ weakly correlates in space with MODIS Nd, accounting for a 16 % variance. It is concluded that the linear regression calculated from ln(Nd)−ln(σBC) (the standard method for quantifying ACI) is more physically meaningful than that derived from the Nd−AOD pair.

scholarly journals Response of shortwave cloud radiative effect to greenhouse gases and aerosols and its impact on daily maximum temperature

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Tang ◽  
Drew Shindell ◽  
Yuqiang Zhang ◽  
Apostolos Voulgarakis ◽  
Jean-Francois Lamarque ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Sulfate Aerosols ◽  
Multilinear Regression

Abstract. Shortwave cloud radiative effects (SWCRE), defined as the difference of shortwave radiative flux between all-sky and clear-sky conditions, have been reported to play an important role in influencing the Earth’s energy budget and temperature extremes. In this study, we employed a set of global climate models to examine the SWCRE responses to CO2, black carbon (BC) aerosols and sulfate aerosols in boreal summer over the Northern Hemisphere. We found that CO2 causes positive SWCRE changes over most of the NH, and BC causes similar positive responses over North America, Europe and East China but negative SWCRE over India and tropical Africa. When normalized by effective radiative forcing, the SWCRE from BC is roughly 3–5 times larger than that from CO2. SWCRE change is mainly due to cloud cover changes resulting from the changes in relative humidity (RH) and, to a lesser extent, changes in circulation and stability. The SWCRE response to sulfate aerosols, however, is negligible compared to that for CO2 and BC. Using a multilinear regression model, it is found that mean daily maximum temperature (Tmax) increases by 0.15 K and 0.13 K per W m−2 increase in local SWCRE under the CO2 and BC experiment, respectively. When domain-averaged, the SWCRE change contribution to summer mean Tmax changes was 10–30 % under CO2 forcing and 30–50 % under BC forcing, varying by region, which can have important implications for extreme climatic events and socio-economic activities.

On the relationship between Indian Ocean Dipole, Indian summer monsoon and ENSO

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annalisa Cherchi ◽  
Pascal Terray ◽  
Satyaban Bishoyi Ratna ◽  
Virna Meccia ◽  
Sooraj K.P.
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Indian Ocean

<p>The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the dominant modes of variability of the tropical Indian Ocean and it has been suggested to have a crucial role in the teleconnection between the Indian summer monsoon and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The main ideas at the base of the influence of the IOD on the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection include the possibility that it may strengthen summer rainfall over India, as well as the opposite, and also that it may produce a remote forcing on ENSO itself. The Indian Ocean has been experiencing a warming, larger than any other basins, since the 1950s. During these decades, the summer monsoon rainfall over India decreased and the frequency of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events increased. In the future the IOD is projected to further increase in frequency and amplitude with mean conditions mimicking the characteristics of its positive phase. Still, state of the art global climate models have large biases in representing IOD and monsoon mean state and variability, with potential consequences for properties and related teleconnections projected in the future. This works collects a review study of the influence of the IOD on the ISM and its relationship with ENSO, as well as new results on IOD projections comparing CMIP5 and CMIP6 models.</p>

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