To test or not to test: what is the value of knowing?

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 114
Author(s):  
John Rizzo ◽  
David Lee
Keyword(s):  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Loss Aversion ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Disease Onset ◽  
Onset Time ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Positive Test ◽  
Test Accuracy ◽  
The Impact

This paper develops a conceptual model for understanding the impact of the “value of knowing”, defined as the value of information from medical tests exclusive of treatment or life-planning decisions on a patient’s decision to undergo testing.  We draw upon the behavioral economic, loss-aversion, cost-benefit and willingness-to-pay literatures to develop a mathematical model of how a medical diagnostic test affects patients’ sense of wellbeing and how this phenomenon affects their decision to undergo testing.  The model allows simultaneous evaluation of the impact of baseline (pre-test) disease risk, test inaccuracy, prior information, worrying over disease onset, time preference and the degree of loss aversion on patients’ net assessment of the value of knowing.  We then simulate the net value of knowing under alternative hypothetical scenarios about test accuracy and patient characteristics.              Patients agree to testing when the expected benefits from good news (measured by willingness to pay) exceed the psychic costs of bad news (measured by willingness to accept).  The value of knowing from testing is shown to depend on test accuracy, pre-test disease risk, the patient’s discount rate, time to disease onset and the patient’s aversion to receiving bad news (loss).  Simulation results indicate that the value of knowing increases (and testing becomes more likely) when: tests are more accurate; the baseline expectation of a positive test is low and the adverse consequences of a positive test are either small or occur far in the future or patients do not worry about onset of future disease.

The future of the management of projects in the 2030s

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 242-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derek Walker ◽  
Beverley Lloyd-Walker
Keyword(s):  
Project Managers ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Workplace Environment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Routine Work ◽  
The Future ◽  
Management Project ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore recent literature on the impact of changes in the workplace environment and projected trends through to the year 2030. This allows the authors to identify and discuss what key trends are changing the nature of project organising work. The authors aim to identify what knowledge and which skills, attributes and experiences will be most likely valued and needed in 2030. Design/methodology/approach This paper is essentially a reflective review and is explorative in nature. The authors focus on several recent reports published in the UK and Australia that discuss the way that the future workforce will adapt and prepare for radical changes in the workplace environment. The authors focus on project organising work and the changing workplace knowledge, skills, attributes and experience (KSAE) needs of those working in project teams in 2030 and beyond. The authors draw upon existing KSAE literature including findings from a study undertaken into the KSAEs of project alliance managers working in a highly collaborative form of project delivery. Findings The analysis suggests that there is good and bad news about project workers prospects in 2030. The good news is that for those working in non-routine roles their work will be more interesting and rewarding than is the case for today. The bad news is that for workers in routine work roles, they will be replaced by advanced digital technology. Research limitations/implications Few, if any, papers published in the project organising literature speculate about what this discipline may look like or what KSAEs will be valued and needed. Practical implications This paper opens up a debate about how project management/project organising work will be undertaken in future and what skills and expertise will be required. It also prompts project managers to think about how they will craft their careers in 2030 in response to expected work environment demands. This will have professional and learning implications. Social implications The issue of the future workplace environment is highly relevant to the social context. Originality/value This paper is about a projected future some 12 years onward from today. It bridges a gap in any future debate about how project organising jobs may change and how they will be delivered in the 2030s.

Was the Sarbanes-Oxley Act Good News for Corporate Bondholders?

2011 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 465-485 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark L. DeFond ◽  
Mingyi Hung ◽  
Emre Carr ◽  
Jieying Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Market Reaction ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Significant Decline ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Primary Analysis ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Sarbanes Oxley ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bondholder Value

SYNOPSIS We investigate the impact of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) on corporate bondholder value by examining the bond market reaction to news events leading up to the passage of SOX. The net impact of SOX on bondholder value is difficult to predict, and there are many reasons why it may be viewed as either good or bad news. Our primary analysis reveals a significant decline in average bondholder value around these events. In addition, cross-sectional tests find that the decline is significantly larger among riskier bonds and among bonds held by firms that are expected to experience the greatest changes under SOX. Thus, our findings are consistent with the bond market expecting the exogenously imposed changes under SOX to make bondholders worse off.

scholarly journals Volatility of Regional Sharia Compliance Returns and US News Impact

2018 ◽  
Vol III (I) ◽  
pp. 294-307
Author(s):  
Kashif Hamid ◽  
Rana Shahid Imdad Akash ◽  
Muhammad Mudasar Ghafoor
Keyword(s):  
Bad News ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Good News ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Leverage Effect ◽  
Pricing Models ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Impact

Investigation of the impact of US News proxy on the returns of regional sharia compliance indices and volatility is the primary aim of this study. The daily data of Dow Jones Islamic index (DJII), Jakarata Islamic Index (JKII), Karachi Meezan Islamic Index (KMI) and Standard & Poor 500 stock index has been taken for the period of July 01, 2013 to June 30, 2018. GARCH (1,1) is extended with US News proxy for KMI, DJII and JKII. US news proxy identifies that leverage effect reveal the long run persistency in volatility. EGARCH (1,1) model indicates that higher volatility has bee also increased by bad news than good news due to leverage effect in sharia compliance returns. This study leads to extend various assets pricing models by modeling the volatility and will also inform the international and regional investors about the new trends of investment in Islamic stock indices and portfolio diversification.

scholarly journals Institutional Investment Constraints and Stock Prices

2017 ◽  
Vol 52 (2) ◽  
pp. 465-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Cao ◽  
Bing Han ◽  
Qinghai Wang
Keyword(s):  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Stock Return Predictability ◽  
Institutional Investment ◽  
Price Momentum ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Investment Constraints

We test the hypothesis that investment constraints in delegated portfolio management may distort demand for stocks, leading to price underreaction to news and stock return predictability. We find that institutions tend not to buy more of a stock with good news that they already overweight; they are reluctant to sell a stock with bad news that they already underweight. Stocks with good news overweighted by institutions subsequently significantly outperform stocks with bad news underweighted by institutions. The impact of institutional investment constraints sheds new light on asset pricing anomalies such as stock price momentum and post–earnings announcement drift.

scholarly journals The influence of circadian variation in ischemic stroke onset on the evolution of cognitive status

2020 ◽  
pp. 85-87
Author(s):  
Dana Marieta FODOR ◽  
Ioana Cristina STANESCU ◽  
Nicoleta TOHANEAN ◽  
Lăcrămioara PERJU-DUMBRAVA
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Circadian Variation ◽  
Disease Onset ◽  
Onset Time ◽  
Cognitive Status ◽  
Stroke Onset ◽  
Variation Pattern ◽  
Rehabilitation Hospital ◽  
Frequency Peak ◽  
The Impact

Introduction. It is already known and accepted that cerebrovascular disease onset has a temporal variation pattern, the best documented being the circadian variation pattern, with a frequency peak in the morning and a second lower peak during afternoon. The impact of this circadian variation on post-stroke cognitive status has been little studied. Materials and method. The study included a cohort of 63 patients with ischemic stroke, admitted to the Neurology Departments I and II of the Rehabilitation Hospital in Cluj-Napoca between 1 June 2008 and 1 June 2009, who were evaluated for their cognitive status over 2 years, during 5 successive visits. The onset time of ischemic stroke was assigned to one of the six-hour intervals: 00.01-06.00 (night), 06.01-12.00 (morning), 12.01-18.00 (afternoon), and 18.01-24.00 (evening). Statistical analysis was performed using Excel Microsoft, descriptive and ANOVA test. Results and conclusions. The circadian variation pattern of stroke onset is confirming in our study the known incidence pattern of ischemic stroke, with the morning peak. There are differences in the evolution during dynamics of the MMSE score depending on the time of the day when stroke occurs. Patients with stroke onset during the night have seems to have a less favorable cognitive evolution in the second year after ischemic stroke compared to patients with stroke onset during the other intervals of the day.

scholarly journals The Impact Of Political Instability Driven By The Tunisian Revolution On Stock Market Volatility: Evidence From Sectorial Indices

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 339-354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salma Zaiane
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Political News ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Terrorist Acts ◽  
Tunisian Revolution ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this paper is to study the impact of political uncertainty, driven by the Tunisian Revolution, on return and volatility of major sectorial stock indices in the Tunisian Stock Exchange. We specifically use EGARCH (1.1) model from 01/12/2010 to 31/08/2016. This model is applied to the daily returns relevant to ten sectorial stock indices and to the Tunisian benchmark index (TUNINDEX). To test the impact of political news on returns and volatility, we divided them into two groups (good and bad news). Our results show that both of good and bad news have increased the volatility of major selected indices, including the TUNINDEX. However, the return of all indices are not affected by the political news. We then examined the impact of terrorism on the behavior of indices return and volatility. Results show that the Tunisian market responds significantly to terrorist acts. Hence, the return declines and the volatility increase the day of terrorist attacks. Furthermore, results confirm that bad news have stronger effect on the volatility than good news, which reveal the asymmetric effect of volatility.

scholarly journals A study on the asymmetry of the news aspect of the stock market: Evidence from three institutional investors in the Taiwan stock market

2015 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 361-383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tzu-Yi Yang ◽  
Yu-Tai Yang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Institutional Trust ◽  
Investment Behavior ◽  
Entire Sample ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Foreign Institutional Investors ◽  
The Impact

This paper uses daily data to investigate the behavior of institutional investors in Taiwan?s stock market. We adopted TGARCH and EGARCH models to test various news. We found that, for the entire sample, a significant clustering phenomenon exists in the investment behavior of three institutional investors, and the impact due to a change of news content shows significant asymmetry and leverage effects. That is, the impact of bad news from the market is stronger than that of good news. In addition, an asymmetric phenomenon can also be seen for the international news aspect as responded to by foreign institutional investors. This phenomenon is more significant than those of the dealers and institutional trust investors. Moreover, the asymmetric phenomenon as responded to by the dealers for domestic news is more significant than those of foreign investors and institutional trust investors.

scholarly journals Political news and stock market reactions: evidence from Turkey over the period 2008–2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 83-98
Author(s):  
Sleiman Karime ◽  
Özlem Sayilir
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Political News ◽  
The Guardian ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The primary objective of the study is to examine the impact of political news (good and bad news) on the returns and volatility of Borsa Istanbul 100 Index (BIST-100). Sample data cover the period from January 2008 to December 2017. The main sample was divided into two subperiods to insulate the dominating impacts of both the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and 2013 Federal Reserve Tapering on Turkish stock markets. The daily stock market data were collected from the Electronic Data Delivery System (EVDS) web service, while political news headlines were collected from the Guardian newspaper. Different nonlinear volatility models (symmetric and asymmetric Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [GARCH]-type models) were used to model and estimate BIST-100 volatility in response to political news. The findings of the paper highlight four main results. First, there seems to be a significant impact of political news on the returns and volatility of BIST-100 index. Second, negative shocks derived from bad news tend to have a significant impact on the returns and volatility of BIST-100, while positive shocks derived from good news do not tend to have any significant impact on the returns, but decreased returns volatility. Third, political news, both good and bad, can affect stock return and stock return volatility in different directions, and this direction is time-varying. Fourth, the findings strongly reveal the presence of “Leverage Effect” in the returns of BIST-100 index. Therefore, one can say that political uncertainty is still a problem for the Turkish stock market.

Deception by commission or by omission – management forecasts surrounding share repurchases

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 517-544
Author(s):  
Anthony Chen ◽  
Hung-Yuan (Richard) Lu
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Share Repurchases ◽  
Litigation Risk ◽  
Management Forecasts ◽  
Limited Evidence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Impact

PurposeIn this study, the authors extend upon Brockman et al. (2008), who provide evidence that managers opportunistically accelerate bad news prior to share repurchases, but provide limited evidence that managers withhold good news until after repurchases. The authors examine management forecasts surrounding share repurchases in periods when companies must disclose detailed repurchase information. The authors argue these disclosures increase managers' legal and reputation risks of accelerating bad news, but have a lesser effect on delaying good news.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the authors examine whether managers alter the information released to the market before buying back shares by comparing managerial forecasts made within 30 days before the beginning of a repurchasing period with those made outside of this window. Second, the authors examine whether managers are more likely to provide good news forecasts, in terms of both magnitude and frequency, after buying back shares. Lastly, the authors examine the impact of CEO stock ownership on managerial forecasting behavior surrounding share buybacks.FindingsConsistent with the authors’ hypotheses and contrary to Brockman et al. (2008), the authors find limited evidence that the likelihood or magnitude of bad news forecasts is greater in the period before share buybacks. Instead, the authors document that the frequency and magnitude of good news forecasts increase in periods following share buybacks and that these associations are positively moderated by managerial equity incentives. The authors also find that the withholding of good news is associated with lower average repurchase prices and greater repurchase volume. The authors further show that, when litigation risk is greater, managers are less likely to accelerate bad news prior to repurchases and more likely to withhold good news until after. Overall, the study results are consistent with managers balancing the benefits of opportunistic repurchase behavior with the costs.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the management forecast and share repurchase literatures by providing evidence consistent with managers opportunistically releasing earnings forecasts in the period after buying back shares. Most importantly, the authors show that after the rule revision, managers refrain from actively disclosing bad news that carry higher legal costs. Instead, they opt for the omission of good news to repurchase stocks at lower prices. The study results reconcile the conflicting evidence of Brockman et al. (2008) and Ge and Lennox (2011).

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