Can mutual fund managers predict security prices to beat the market?The case of Greece during the debt crisis

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 40-62
Author(s):  
Drosos Koutsokostas ◽  
Spyros Papathanasiou ◽  
Nikolaos Eriotis
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Performance Persistence ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Index Funds ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
Term Performance

The purpose of this paper is to examine the performance of Greek equity mutual funds, elaborating on stock selection in parallel with market timing measures, in comparison with the performance of ETFs and index funds for the period 01/24/2008-05/12/2017, and the short-term performance persistence of actively managed funds for the period 05/12/2015-05/12/2017. Using all domestic equity mutual funds at our disposal and daily data, the authors apply multi-factor models to estimate risk-adjusted returns and to evaluate the selectivity and market timing ability of fund managers. In order to investigate short-term performance persistence, the coexistence of stock selection and market timing strategy is allowed and a battery of parametric and nonparametric tests is implemented. Results show that actively managed mutual funds underperformed the market index, as well as passively managed ETFs and index funds, primarily due to the managers’ inability to time the market. Furthermore, a winner-picking strategy to outperform a-buy-the-market-and hold policy is questioned.

Mutual funds in Greece: case study of domestic equity mutual funds during a financial crisis

2017 ◽  
Vol 43 (7) ◽  
pp. 812-827 ◽  
Author(s):  
Drosos Koutsokostas ◽  
Spyros Papathanasiou
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Performance Persistence ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Index ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
Term Performance

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the performance of Greek equity mutual funds for the period 2012-2016, analyzing further the selectivity and market timing ability, and short-term performance persistence for the period 2015-2016. Design/methodology/approach Utilizing a survivorship-bias-controlled sample of 25 funds and daily data, the authors use single-index (Jensen, 1968) and multi-factor (Carhart, 1997) models to evaluate risk-adjusted returns using the General Index of Athens Stock Exchange as a benchmark. The Treynor-Mazuy (1966) and Henriksson-Merton (1981) models are used to assess the stock selection and market timing abilities of fund managers. In order to investigate short-term performance persistence, the authors implement a variety of parametric (Bollen and Busse, 2005) and nonparametric tests (Malkiel, 1995; Brown and Goetzmann, 1995; Kahn and Rudd, 1995). Findings Results show that the funds underperformed the General Index, mainly due to the managers’ market timing inability. Furthermore, weak evidence for short-term performance persistence has been documented. Research limitations/implications Checking for performance persistence, it was impossible to rank funds and form deciles according to their estimated abnormal returns, as in Bollen and Busse (2005), due to the small number of mutual funds operating in Greece. Originality/value Empirical studies regarding the performance of Greek equity mutual funds are still limited. Therefore, this paper intends to fill this gap by providing further evidence of performance evaluation.

scholarly journals MANAGERIAL ABILITIES AND FACTOR INVESTMENT STYLE PERFORMANCES OF MALAYSIAN MUTUAL FUND MANAGERS

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 118-135
Author(s):  
Pick-Soon Ling ◽  
Ruzita Abdul-Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Investment Style ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Stock Picking

Background and Purpose: Studies focusing on mutual fund managerial abilities and investment style strategies are still scarce in the literature. Thus, this study aims to provide new evidence and insights into the managerial abilities and investment style performances of Malaysian fund managers.   Methodology: A total of 444 Malaysian equity mutual funds (EMFs) were evaluated using Carhart’s model incorporated with Treynor-Mazuy (T-M) and Henriksson-Merton (H-M) market timing models for the study period, from January 1995 to December 2017.   Findings: Fund managers displayed superior stock selection skills with 32 percent and 43 percent of funds for T-M and H-M respectively, with perverse market timing ability which accounted for 39 percent and 42 percent of funds for T-M and H-M respectively. Perverse timing ability had reduced the superior stock-picking skills of fund managers. This suggests that the EMFs performance could further improve if respective fund managers perform better in market timing ability. The finding also indicates that size effect (SMB) and value effect (HML) play significant roles in investment style strategies, while results of momentum factor (WML) propose that Malaysian fund managers have followed the contrarian strategy.   Contributions: This study contributes in several ways especially in the literature of portfolio management as the evidence is obtained from the largest mutual funds sample size and the longest study period. Moreover, this study also used the highest frequency data to study the effects of market timing which were overlooked in previous studies.   Keywords: Adjusted carhart, Malaysian market, market timing, mutual fund, stock selection.   Cite as: Ling, P-S., & Abdul-Rahim, R. (2021). Managerial abilities and factor investment style performances of Malaysian mutual funds.  Journal of Nusantara Studies, 6(1), 118-135. http://dx.doi.org/10.24200/jonus.vol6iss1pp118-135

scholarly journals Selectivity and Market Timing Skills in Emerging Greek Equity Mutual Funds During the Sovereign Debt Crisis

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-150
Author(s):  
Kyriazis A. Nikolaos ◽  
Koulis Alexandros ◽  
Papadamou Stephanos ◽  
Beneki Christina
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Capital Asset Pricing ◽  
Sovereign Debt Crisis ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Beta Coefficient

AbstractThis paper evaluates the performance of seventeen Greek equity mutual funds before and after the sovereign debt crisis. By being based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the selectivity and market timing skills of these funds are under scrutiny. This takes place by assigning a linear form to the Beta coefficient and transforming the traditional CAPM equation into a second order polynomial. Results provide evidence of an improvement in selectivity and market timing skills for the majority of these emerging funds after the outburst of the debt crisis and the adoption of measures by Troika. Thereby, the potential of excess profit-making possibilities for capable fund managers in the Greek fund market is enhanced during non-conventional periods in comparison to normal times, even though the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) still holds.

scholarly journals Selectivity and Market Timing Ability of Fund Managers: Comparative Analysis of Islamic and Conventional HSBC Saudi Mutual Funds

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zouaoui
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Performance Persistence ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Good Market ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Better Than

This paper empirically compares the market timing, the stock selection and the performance persistence of Islamic and conventional HSBC Saudi mutual funds by using monthly returns from April 2011 to December 2018. The data was grouped into five portfolios based on geographical investment basis (locally, Arab, internationally) and Sharia compliance (Islamic and conventional). The empirical results indicate that Islamic funds underperformed conventional funds internationally but not locally. Findings suggest that the market selectivity skills of managers in the Islamic funds are better than the conventional funds. In addition, only the managers of Saudi conventional funds investing internationally have a good market timing skills, thus, they are able to beat the market index by predicting its movements and buying and selling accordingly. Furthermore, this study gives a brief idea about the performance persistence of HSBC Saudi funds. The results confirm existence of the persistence performance when the funds do not apply Sharia law and when they are instead focused internationally.

scholarly journals PERFORMANCE OF SHARIAH VERSUS CONVENTIONAL FUNDS: LESSONS FROM EMERGING MARKETS

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-218
Author(s):  
Ruzita Abdul-Rahim ◽  
Aisyah Abdul-Rahman ◽  
Pick-Soon Ling
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Merton Model ◽  
Cross Country

This study compares the performance of Shariah and conventional mutual funds in emerging markets. The performance of 833 Shariah and conventional funds in 6 emerging markets from 2000 to 2015 was analyzed. We analyzed the Sharpe index, Treynor index, and Jensen’s alpha to compare the performance of Shariah and conventional funds. Jensen's alpha results conform to those of Sharpe’s in indicating that Shariah funds slightly outperform their conventional counterparts particularly in the case of Malaysia, Pakistan, and South Africa. Conventional funds perform exceptionally well in Egypt. Further investigation using the Henriksson–Merton model shows that fund managers’ performance relies nearly completely on their stock selection skills because they have either inferior or ineffective ability in timing the market. This study is the first cross-country attempt to compare the performance of Shariah and conventional funds in emerging markets in terms of risk-adjusted returns, security selectivity, and market timing capability.   Keywords: Emerging markets, Jensen’s alpha, mutual funds, risk-adjusted performances, Shariah mutual funds   Cite as:   Abdul-Rahim, R. Abdul-Rahman, A., & Ling, P-S. (2019). Performance of Shariah versus conventional funds: Lessons from emerging markets.  Journal of Nusantara Studies, 4(2), 193-218. http://dx.doi.org/10.24200/jonus.vol4iss2pp193-218

scholarly journals PENGARUH STOCK SELESCTION SKIIL, MARKET TIMING ABILITY, TURNOVER RATIO DAN CASH FLOW TERHADAP KINERJA REKSA DANA SYARIAH

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (01) ◽  
pp. 45-55
Author(s):  
Mega Mustika Sari ◽  
Sri Mulyati ◽  
Estu Widarwati
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Research Report ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Turnover Ratio ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Investment Manager

Mutual funds syariah are other investment opportunities with measurable risk and return is high enough with enough capital affordable to the community. Mutual funds syariah have an Investment Manager with the ability and knowledge of the market it is or will happen. Therefore, mutual funds syariah selected by investors because it is cheap, easy and "managed by the experts". This research analysted do stock selection skill, market timing ability, Turnover ratio and Cashflow can influence the performance of equity mutual funds syariah in Indonesia. The data used in this research are data on financial statements , Net Asset Value (NAV), SBI, IHSG, yearly data and prospectus of 10 equity mutual fund syariah that were sampled during this research report from 2011-2014. As a research methodology, we used F test and t test to examine research’s hypothesis, also used assumption classic test there are normality test, autocorrelation test, heteroscedasticity test and multicolinearity test. These results can be viewed on multiple regression analysis and the coefficient of determination, the R value of 0.513 means the relation between the stock selection skill, market timing ability, Turnover ratio and Cashflow to profitability by 51.3%, meaning that the relationship between variables was most closely. Adjusted R Square value of 0.545 which means 54,5% achievement of profitability can be explained by the stock selection skill, market timing ability, Turnover ratio and Cashflow. The remaining 45,5% can be explained by other factors not examined in this research..

scholarly journals An Empirical Investigation of the Performance of Fund Managers in Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-68
Author(s):  
Sanaullah Sanaullah ◽  
Amna Noor ◽  
Salleh Khan ◽  
Muhammad Shahbaz Khan
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Performance Study ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Mutual Fund Managers ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Manager Performance

This study aims to determine the stock selection ability and market timing ability of mutual fund managers, focusing on conventional funds and Islamic funds in Pakistan.  Although there has been significant growth in the number and assets of mutual funds in recent years, few studies measure the performance of mutual funds managers. The scarcity of existing literature motivates this study. In this study, two models are used to measure the stock selection and market timing on a sample of conventional mutual funds and Islamic mutual funds over 2010 and 2019 using annual returns. Overall, the results indicate that the performance study of conventional mutual funds and Islamic mutual funds indicates that manager performance is not superior in all three portfolios, i.e., conventional funds, Islamic funds, and overall funds in over sample period. This also indicates that both Conventional and Islamic fund managers do not outperform the market (KSE 100 index). Thus, there is a lack of market timing ability. Using Tranoy and mazuy and Jansen models found a lack of stock selection and market timing ability of mutual fund managers in Pakistani mutual funds. In this study, I have applied only two models to examine both the timing and selection ability of conventional and Islamic Pakistani equity funds. For future possibilities, the study suggests adopting several methods and approaches like the TMFF3 model and HM-FF3 model, making the study more comprehensive and accurate than this research.

scholarly journals Stock Selection dan Market Timing Ability Reksa Dana Syariah Saham di Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 68-81
Author(s):  
Fadiyah Hani Sabila
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Timing Ability

The purpose of this research is to know investment manager’s ability on stock selection and market timing of Indonesia sharia equity mutual funds on 2015-2017. Number of sample that use in this research is 15 sample with purposive sampling method. Data analysis technique used is Treynor-Mazuy condition regression model using panel data. This research method using panel data analysis test that is test Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier. The result showed that the model chosen is a random effect models. F test and T test results indicate that investment manager’s of Indonesia sharia equity mutual funds have stock selection and market timing ability.

scholarly journals Market Timing and Stock Selection Ability of Mutual Funds in India: An Empirical Investigation

2007 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumya Guha Deb ◽  
Ashok Banerjee ◽  
B B Chakrabarti
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Mutual Fund Managers ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Timing Ability

Evaluation of performance of mutual funds and identification of successful fund managers are of great interest to both investors and academicians. Two possible methods that are presumed to be used by fund managers for generating superior performance are identified as: Market timing: Market timing skills imply assessing correctly the direction of the market, whether bull or bear, and positioning their portfolios accordingly. Stock selection: Stock selection skills involve micro forecasting, which generally forecasts price movements of individual stocks relative to stocks and identification of individual stocks that are under-or over-valued relative to equities in general. The two pioneering works in this field is by Treynor Mazuy( 1966) and Henriksson Merton ( 1981). They developed two different models for testing the market timing and stock selection abilities of the fund managers but found little evidence of timing by the fund managers in their samples. Most of the other works mentioned in the paper have used these two models (which we name as traditional/unconditional models) or slight variations of the same for testing market timing and stock selection abilities of the fund managers. Person and Scadt (1996) modified the classical performance measures (of timing and stock selection ability) to take account of well-known information variables like interest rate, market dividend yield, etc. They termed it as ‘conditional approach’ of measuring mutual fund performance and claimed that conditioning on public information controls for biases in traditional market timing and stock selection models. Traditional models have taken the view that ‘any information’ correlated with the future market returns is superior information; in other words, they are unconditional models. Person and Scadt's approach used basically the same simplifying assumptions as the traditional models but they assumed, in addition, semi-strong form of market efficiency. The idea was to distinguish between market timing based on public information from market timing information that is superior to the lagged publicly available information variables. Although the academic literature on stock selection and market timing ability of mutual fund managers is rich and spans several decades, not many studies exist on this issue using emerging market data. This paper attempts to find the stock selection and market timing abilities of the Indian mutual fund managers using unconditional as well as conditional approaches. With a sample of 96 Indian mutual fund schemes, a lack of market timing ability and presence of stock selection ability were observed among the Indian funds managers in both unconditional as well as conditional approaches. A pooled regression was carried out for various categories of funds as well as for the entire sample, which also showed a lack of market timing abilities and presence of stock selection abilities.

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