Effects of future climate change on the geographical distribution of a bird endemic to South American floodplains

Climate change is a serious threat, and it is necessary to prepare for the future climate conditions of grazing areas. Dung beetle species can help mitigate global warming by contributing to intense nutrient cycling and reduction in greenhouse gas emissions caused by cattle farming. Additionally, dung beetles increase soil quality through bioturbation and reduce nematodes and hematophagous flies’ abundance in grasslands areas. There are several dung beetle species inhabiting South American pastures, however, the effects of climate change on their spatial distribution are still unknown. Here, we aimed to predict the potential effects of future climate change on the geographical spatial distribution of the four most important (“key”) pastureland dung beetle species that are native to South America. We used niche-based models and future climate simulations to predict species distribution through time. Our findings show radical reduction in the spatial range of dung beetle species, especially in recently opened areas, e.g., the Amazon region. We suggest that the consequences of these species’ spatial retraction will be correlated with ecosystem services depletion under future climate conditions, urgently necessitating pasture restoration and parasite control, as the introduction of new alien species is not encouraged.

Download Full-text

Potential geographical distribution and habitat shift of the genus Ammopiptanthus in China under current and future climate change based on the MaxEnt model

Journal of Arid Environments ◽

10.1016/j.jaridenv.2020.104328 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 184 ◽

pp. 104328

Author(s):

Zhongyu Du ◽

Yiming He ◽

Haitao Wang ◽

Chi Wang ◽

Yizhong Duan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Geographical Distribution ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Habitat Shift ◽

Maxent Model

Download Full-text

Prediction of Cossus Linnaeus suitable growing area in China under Future Climate change based on optimized MaxEnt Model and Geographic detector

10.22541/au.161793516.65074408/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

hua zhang ◽

ming li ◽

jinyue song ◽

wuhong han

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Geographical Distribution ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Future Climate ◽

Shaanxi Province ◽

Shanxi Province ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Actual Distribution ◽

Maxent Model ◽

Mean Temperature

CossusLinnaeus is a kind of insect that causes great harm to forest trees in China, which has a great impact on the country’s agriculture and forestry, and seriously affects the stability of the ecosystem, so it is very important to predict its distribution and contain it. Most researchers use the MaxEnt model with default parameters to build models to predict the potential geographical distribution of species. Recent studies have found that in the case of default parameters, the prediction results of MaxEnt model are not only inaccurate, but also sometimes difficult to explain. In this paper, ENMeval packets are used to adjust the optimal feature combination parameters of MaxEnt model, and then the MaxEnt model with optimal parameters is used to predict the potential geographical distribution of CossusLinnaeus under present and future climatic conditions. The simulation results show that the simulation effect of the MaxEnt model is good (the area under the ROC curve (AUC = 0.914), Cossus Linnaeus is mainly distributed in Liaoning Province, Hebei Province, Shandong Province, Henan Province, Shaanxi Province, Shanxi Province, Ningxia and Gansu Province, etc., which is consistent with the actual distribution results. Under future climatic conditions, the area of Cossus Linnaeus high suitable growth area will rise up 26.7% to 87.4% compared with the current one. Climate change affects the potential distribution of Cossus Linnaeus, and the top four environmental variables with contribution rate are normalized vegetation index (NDVI,40.3%), annual mean temperature (Bio1,24.1%), coldest monthly minimum temperature (Bio6,12.4%) and diurnal range of mean temperature (Bio2,9%). Under the condition of future climate change, the center of gravity of Cossus Linnaeus will move to high latitudes. This study will provide theoretical support for the prevention and control of Cossus Linnaeus and tree protection in China.

Download Full-text

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF A CLOUD FOREST INDICATOR TREE SPECIES

Revista Árvore ◽

10.1590/1806-908820200000032 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 44 ◽

Author(s):

Guilherme Neto dos Santos ◽

Ana Carolina da Silva ◽

Pedro Higuchi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Geographical Distribution ◽

Tree Species ◽

Cloud Forest ◽

High Impact ◽

Future Climate ◽

Conservation Strategies ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Climate Change Scenarios

ABSTRACT The cloud forests are threatened due to the climate change process. Investigations seeking to predict how future climate change will affect species are of great importance as they are fundamental to generating conservation strategies. We aimed to detect how climate change affects the potential geographical distribution of Drimys angustifolia Miers, a tree species that is an indicator of the upper-montane cloud forest in the Brazilian subtropical Atlantic Forest. The areas where D. angustifolia occurs were obtained from geographic coordinates available in scientific publications and the Global Biodiversity Information database. For climate niche modeling, we used the maximum entropy algorithm with 19 climate variables. Two climate change scenarios were considered for 2061-2080: one of low and one of high impact. D. angustifolia predominantly occurs in the upper-montane forests and is absent from dry and warm sites. The variables that best explained the D. angustifolia climatic niche were mean temperature of the warmest quarter, precipitation of driest month, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. Both scenarios indicated changes towards a more tropical regional future climate. Under the low impact climate change scenario, D. angustifolia coverage declined by 68.24% (± 7.32%) across its area of potential occurrence; it declined by 79.15% (± 9.65%) under the high impact scenario. In conclusion, the results of the present study showed that D. angustifolia and its associated ecosystem are threatened by the potential impacts of future climate change. Consequently, we highlight climatically stable areas for the occurrence of D. angustifolia, such as those located in the highest parts of the mountain ranges of the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil, which should be considered as priority areas for protection and conservation.

Download Full-text