Can We Predict Podiatric Medical School Grade Point Average Using an Admission Screen?

Background: Most medical school admission committees use cognitive and noncognitive measures to inform their final admission decisions. We evaluated using admission data to predict academic success for podiatric medical students using first-semester grade point average (GPA) and cumulative GPA at graduation as outcome measures. Methods: In this study, we used linear multiple regression to examine the predictive power of an admission screen. A cross-validation technique was used to assess how the results of the regression model would generalize to an independent data set. Results: Undergraduate GPA and Medical College Admission Test score accounted for only 22% of the variance in cumulative GPA at graduation. Undergraduate GPA, Medical College Admission Test score, and a time trend variable accounted for only 24% of the variance in first-semester GPA. Conclusions: Seventy-five percent of the individual variation in cumulative GPA at graduation and first-semester GPA remains unaccounted for by admission screens that rely on only cognitive measures, such as undergraduate GPA and Medical College Admission Test score. A reevaluation of admission screens is warranted, and medical educators should consider broadening the criteria used to select the podiatric physicians of the future. (J Am Podiatr Med Assoc 102(6): 499–504, 2012)