A Longitudinal Study on Comparison of Haematocrit, Glasgow Score and Computed Tomography Abdomen as Prognostic Markers in Assessment of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis

Introduction: Acute Pancreatitis (AP) can present from a mild self-limiting process that requires only supportive care to severe disease that can cause multiple Organ Failure (OF) and high mortality. It is therefore important to identify such patients at increased risk of OF and mortality at the earliest. Aim: To evaluate and compare the efficacy of three prognostic markers namely Haematocrit, Glasgow scoring and Computed Tomography (CT) abdomen in assessing the severity of AP. Materials and Methods: A prospective longitudinal study was done on 120 patients diagnosed with AP, over a period of 18 months. Haematocrit was done at admission and at 48 hours. A fall in haematocrit of more than 10% was considered sensitive. Modified Glasgow score was assessed at admission and after 48 hours. Other variables include blood glucose level, white blood count, blood urea nitrogen, serum calcium, partial oxygen pressure (PaO2), decrease in haematocrit, serum Lactate Dehydrogenase (LDH), serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and serum albumin. A score of ≥3 was considered sensitive. CT of abdomen was done at 72 hours and a Computed Tomography Severity Index (CTSI) score of ≥4 was considered sensitive. The results of each prognostic marker were graphed and compared to assess Length of Hospital Stay (LOHS), need for Intensive Care Unit Admission (ICUA), OF and mortality. Results: The mean LOHS was six days. Haematocrit was sensitive in 23 of 79 patients that stayed in hospital for >6 days. Modified Glasgow scores were sensitive in 35 of 79 patients. CT of abdomen was sensitive in 59 out of 79 patients. Total 29 of 120 patients were admitted in the ICU, out of which difference in haematocrit was sensitive in 14 patients, Modified Glasgow coma score of ≥3 was seen in 14 patients and CTSI scores were sensitive in 22 patients. Twelve out of 120 patients developed OF. All 12 patients showed a sensitive Modified Glasgow scores of ≥3 and CTSI ≥4, whereas only five patients were sensitive for fall in haematocrit. Five patients died during the study. All five patients were sensitive for fall in haematocrit Glasgow coma scores and CT abdomen. Among the prognostic markers, haematocrit showed 100% sensitivity, specificity and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) than the other prognostic markers making haematocrit the better prognostic marker. Conclusion: CT of abdomen is a reliable prognostic marker in terms of assessment of LOHS, need for Intensive Care Unit (ICU) care and mortality. Modified Glasgow score is accurate in assessing OF. Haematocrit is specific in assessing the need for ICU care and mortality.