PREDICTING NATURAL RESOURCE DAMAGES FROM OIL SPILLS IN THE UNITED STATES

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 (1) ◽  
pp. 588-603 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Dunford ◽  
Melissa K. Lynes
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Natural Resource ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
The United States ◽  
Point Estimate ◽  
Government Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Threatened And Endangered Species

ABSTRACT Most major oil spills in the United States result in some natural resource damages (NRD), which arise from injuries to natural resources and losses of their services. Other things being equal, larger spills lead to larger NRD. However, factors other than the number of gallons spilled can affect the subsequent amount of natural resource damages. These factors may include the type of oil spilled, the geographic location of the spill, the season in which the spill occurred, whether threatened and endangered species were injured, whether recreation closures occurred, whether the spill occurred in saltwater or freshwater, and other characteristics of the spill. This paper presents a statistical model using multiple-regression analysis that explains variations in 86 NRD settlements for oil spills in the United States based on a variety of factors. The results of the statistical analysis identify which of the factors influence NRD settlements and the magnitude of the effect. Then, the results of the statistical model are used to predict a point estimate and 90% confidence interval for the NRD settlement for three hypothetical oil spills. Such predictions could give both Trustees (i.e., government agencies that pursue NRD claims on behalf of the public) and responsible parties a useful damage range, for planning purposes, within days of future oil spills.

INSIGHTS FROM A NEW STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF NATURAL RESOURCE DAMAGE SETTLEMENTS FROM OIL SPILLS IN THE UNITED STATES

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (1) ◽  
pp. 3112-3133
Author(s):  
Richard W. Dunford ◽  
Greg E. Challenger ◽  
Stephan Gmur ◽  
Melissa K. Lynes ◽  
Michael A. Dunford
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Natural Resource ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
The United States ◽  
Multivariate Statistical ◽  
Underlying Distribution ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Threatened And Endangered Species ◽  
Binary Division

2017-335 ABSTRACT Major oil spills in the United States often result in some natural resource damages (NRD), which arise from injuries to natural resources and losses of their services. Other things being equal, larger spills lead to larger NRD. Previous research on NRD settlements using multiple-regression analysis identified several factors that predicted variations in damages, other than the number of gallons spilled (Dunford and Lynes 2014). Those factors included the geographic location of the spill, whether threatened and endangered species were injured, whether recreation closures occurred, and whether unvalued compensatory restoration was part of the settlement. The current paper extends the previous research by adding NRD settlements in the past three years, and by exploring a new multivariate statistical method. Specifically, the new method employs a binary division of sample observations to create tree-like regression models, which are used to determine the correlations among the settlement characteristics. The new approach is non-parametric, which means that it imposes no assumptions about the underlying distribution of the predictor variables. The model identifies multiple combinations of key explanatory variables, providing more insights on observed differences in NRD settlement amounts.

A Statistical Model for Estimating Natural Resource Damages from Oil Spills

2001 ◽  
Vol 2001 (1) ◽  
pp. 225-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Dunford ◽  
Miranda L. Freeman
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Natural Resource ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
The United States ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Point Estimate ◽  
Heavy Crude ◽  
Time Required

ABSTRACT This paper presents a statistical model using multiple-regression analysis that explains variations in past natural resource damage (NRD) settlements (excluding assessment costs) for oil spills in the United States based on a variety of factors, such as the amount of oil spilled, the type of oil spilled, and the geographic location of the spill. The results of this statistical model indicate that, other things being equal, NRD settlements are higher for larger oil spills, spills in California, spills that occur in the winter months (December, January, and February), and when endangered species are injured. Alternatively, other things being equal, NRD settlements are lower for spills of light crude oil than for other types of petroleum products (mainly heavy crude oil), and spills with unvalued compensatory restoration projects. In this paper, the authors use their statistical model to predict a point estimate and range for the NRD settlement for two hypothetical oil spills. This demonstrates that their statistical model could be used to predict the NRD settlement for future oil spills within a few weeks of occurring, which could significantly shorten the time required to reach a settlement.

EFFECTS OF OPA 90 RESPONSE PLANNING ON REPORTED SPILLS

1997 ◽  
Vol 1997 (1) ◽  
pp. 761-764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dana Stalcup ◽  
Gary Yoshioka ◽  
Brad Kaiman ◽  
Adam Hall
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Oil Pollution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Government Agencies ◽  
Notification System ◽  
Response Planning ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Spilled Oil

ABSTRACT In the years following the passage of the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA 90), government agencies and regulated parties in the United States have begun to implement spill prevention and preparedness programs. For this analysis, 7 years of oil spill data collected in the Emergency Response Notification System were used to measure the impact that OPA 90 has had on preventing large spills. Furthermore, relationships among the types, sources, and location of spilled oil are characterized. A comparison of the number of reported 10,000-gallon oil spills for the years 1992-1995 to that number for the years 1989-1991 indicates a decline, not only for vessels but also for pipelines and fixed facilities. The decline in large oil spills to water from various sources appears to indicate that the efforts of government and industry have had a measurable impact on environmental protection.

COMPREHENSIVE OIL SPILL LIABILITY AND COMPENSATION LEGISLATION

1989 ◽  
Vol 1989 (1) ◽  
pp. 513-514
Author(s):  
Charles R. Corbett ◽  
David M. Bovet
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Federally Funded ◽  
The Public ◽  
Liability Law ◽  
Alternative Measures ◽  
State Liability

ABSTRACT Comprehensive oil spill liability and compensation legislation has eluded the United States for about 12 years, despite the fact that well-crafted legislation would benefit all interested parties. The public would be better protected from catastrophic effects of oil spills; industry (both oil and shipping) would be provided reasonable limits of liability (or alternative measures); and state governments would become full partners in federally funded oil spill responses. Most of the parties who would be affected by oil spill legislation have made substantial contributions and shown increased flexibility since 1984. Still, one major hurdle must be crossed before legislation can become a reality: state liability law preemption.

Natural Resource Damages from Oil Spills in the United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 176-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Dunford ◽  
Stephan Gmur ◽  
Melissa K. Lynes ◽  
Greg E. Challenger ◽  
Michael A. Dunford
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Natural Resource ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
The United States

scholarly journals Is There a New Normal For Natural Resource Damage Settlements Since the Deepwater Horizon Settlement?

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard W. Dunford ◽  
Gerald F. George
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Natural Resource ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Deepwater Horizon ◽  
The United States ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
New Normal ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT Recently, Dunford, et al. (2019) published a statistical model analyzing the variation in natural resource damage (NRD) settlement amounts for oil spills in the United States. One of the significant explanatory factors in the statistical model was the impact of the unprecedented magnitude of the NRD settlement in the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill. Specifically, while the settlement itself was excluded in the statistical analysis, NRD settlements for oil spills that were lodged after the DWH settlement were almost four times the amount of NRD settlements for oil spills that were lodged prior to DWH settlement, holding other factors equal. For simplicity, we refer to this phenomenon as the “DWH effect.” In our paper we examine three potential causes of the DWH effect. Since there were only five settlements between the DWH settlement in 2015 and the end of 2017 (the last year in the database), one potential cause is a small-sample effect. Specifically, the five spills that settled may have had particularly severe natural resource injuries, resulting in much greater NRD. This cause seemed unlikely based on our review of the five spills. Adding NRD settlements in the last three years for five more spills to the Dunford et al. (2019) database and re-running their model lowered the DWH effect multiplier to 2.4 from about four. Thus, expanding the sample size with five recent settlements lowered the DWH effect, but it remains quite substantial. A second cause of the DWH effect may be an anchoring effect. By its nature, measurement of NRD is imprecise, and in the absence of litigation, parties have been left to look to past settlements for benchmarks in settlement negotiations. The DWH settlement may have raised the expectations of natural resource Trustees in negotiating settlements in later NRD cases. At the same time, the magnitude of the DWH settlement may have made responsible parties more comfortable with higher settlement amounts. This cause seems likely. A third potential contribution to the DWH effect may be associated with a shifting of other oil spill liabilities under the Oil Pollution Act (e.g., fines and penalties) into NRD liability. Supplemental Environmental Projects (SEPs), which are often used to reduce monetary fines for spills, may have played a smaller role in recent settlements, and are disfavored under the current U.S. Department of Justice. Both Trustees and parties responsible for oil spills may be willing to shift penalties or SEPs into NRD for different reasons, as discussed in our paper. However, we found little evidence to support this cause of the DWH effect. A key question is whether the DWH effect is temporary or permanent. Our addition of five recent NRD settlements to the Dunford, et al. (2019) statistical analysis provides some support for a declining DWH effect over time. However, given the dynamics of the NRD negotiation process, we suspect that the DWH settlement has established a new plateau for future NRD settlements, leaving the DWH effect as the new normal.

EVALUATION OF COMPENSATION FORMULAE TO MEASURE NATURAL RESOURCE DAMAGES1

1993 ◽  
Vol 1993 (1) ◽  
pp. 739-743
Author(s):  
Gordon A. Robilliard ◽  
Marion Fischel ◽  
William H. Desvousges ◽  
Richard W. Dunford ◽  
Kristy Mathews
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Natural Resource ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Oil Pollution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Specific Data ◽  
Indian Tribe

ABSTRACT Most of the oil spills in marine, estuarine, or freshwater environments of the United States are small (less than 1,000 gallons) and result in minimal injury to natural resources or little to no loss of services. However, federal, state, and Indian tribe trustees for natural resources are entitled under a variety of laws, including the Oil Pollution Act of 1990, to collect damages (money) from responsible parties to compensate for the foregone services and restoration of the services provided by the natural resources. Alaska, Washington, and Florida have developed a formula-based approach to calculating natural resource damages resulting from most spills; the federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and several other states are considering developing a compensation formula. The ideal compensation formula is a simplified assessment process that (a) can be applied rapidly, (b) requires relatively small transaction or assessment costs, (c) requires minimal site- and spill-specific data as inputs, (d) is based on generally accepted scientific and economic principles and methods, and (e) results in damage values acceptable to both the trustees and the responsible party. In theory, a compensation formula could be applied to most small oil spills in United States waters.

Verán ustedes las chozas más humildes. El discurso de pobreza en la diplomacia pública cardenista dirigida a Estados Unidos

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 255-281
Author(s):  
Sylvia Dümmer Scheel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New Deal ◽  
Public Diplomacy ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Poor ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Government ◽  
Lazaro Cardenas ◽  
The New Deal

El artículo analiza la diplomacia pública del gobierno de Lázaro Cárdenas centrándose en su opción por publicitar la pobreza nacional en el extranjero, especialmente en Estados Unidos. Se plantea que se trató de una estrategia inédita, que accedió a poner en riesgo el “prestigio nacional” con el fin de justificar ante la opinión pública estadounidense la necesidad de implementar las reformas contenidas en el Plan Sexenal. Aprovechando la inusual empatía hacia los pobres en tiempos del New Deal, se construyó una imagen específica de pobreza que fuera higiénica y redimible. Ésta, sin embargo, no generó consenso entre los mexicanos. This article analyzes the public diplomacy of the government of Lázaro Cárdenas, focusing on the administration’s decision to publicize the nation’s poverty internationally, especially in the United States. This study suggests that this was an unprecedented strategy, putting “national prestige” at risk in order to explain the importance of implementing the reforms contained in the Six Year Plan, in the face of public opinion in the United States. Taking advantage of the increased empathy felt towards the poor during the New Deal, a specific image of hygienic and redeemable poverty was constructed. However, this strategy did not generate agreement among Mexicans.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document