scholarly journals RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY AT ISLA DEL CARMEN, MEXICO

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (33) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Mireille Escudero Castillo ◽  
Edgar Mendoza Baldwin ◽  
Rodolfo Silva Casarín
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Natural Habitat ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Integrated Risk Assessment ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
Flooding Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Methodology ◽  
Harmful Effects

Extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena lead annually to serious damage and losses in the coastal zone of Isla del Carmen, on the Gulf of Mexico. The importance of the risk assessment is the possibility of preventing or reducing those harmful effects. In this context, an integrated risk assessment approach is performed based on the source-pathway-receptor concept to assess the flooding risk in the area. The paper analyses the consequences on the dune ecosystem that extends longitudinally along the island; and the effects on the population, infrastructure and natural habitat located next to the beach. The results of the study will be used to define the zones with a higher level of risk and to propose flood risk mitigation measures. Moreover, the study will contribute to the establishment of specific legislation which supports the protection of the coastal dune.

scholarly journals An integrated risk assessment for maintenance prediction of oil wetted gearbox and bearing in marine and offshore industries using a fuzzy rule base method

2020 ◽  
Vol 234 (2) ◽  
pp. 313-331
Author(s):  
Maurice Asuquo ◽  
Jin Wang ◽  
Lihong Zhang ◽  
Geraint Phylip-Jones
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Rule ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Rule Base ◽  
Wear Rates ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Integrated Risk Assessment ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Base Method ◽  
Risk Assessment Methodology

This article presents an integrated risk assessment methodology for maintenance prediction of oil wetted gearbox and bearing in marine and offshore machinery with emphasis on ship cranes. Predictive maintenance uses important parameters measured in the equipment to ‘feel’ when breakdown is eminent. This type of maintenance intends to make interventions on machinery before harmful events may occur. This article assesses the risk levels of bearing and gearbox, which are the most sensitive components of the ship crane using fuzzy rule–based judgement for common elements and their sources. This will provide the ship crane operators with a means to predict possible impending failure without having to dismantle the crane. Furthermore, to monitor the rate of wear in gearbox and bearing of a ship crane, the ship crane reliability, and a trend to provide an operational baseline of data that will help the engineers to detect abnormal wear rates as they develop, is established. Within the scope of this research, a risk assessment model is developed for determining the risk levels of a crane’s components and recommending solutions using all the diagnostic capability obtainable for effective condition monitoring of the gearbox and bearing in ship cranes.

Risk Management for Rail Safety: Post Lac Megantic

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijay Raghunathan ◽  
Ron Mitchell ◽  
Robin Pitblado ◽  
Hong Wu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Baseline Risk ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Assessment Approach

Following several recent serious rail accidents in North America, changes in regulation and increased public awareness is driving the need to address gaps in rail safety. The industry and regulators have numerous safety initiatives; however prescriptive standards in combination with a performance based approach could be a powerful tool for understanding and mitigating risk in a cost effective way. This paper reviews the principles of safety risk management that can be applied to safe transportation of flammable hydrocarbons by Rail. FRA’s proposed rulemaking on Risk reduction program and its potential impact on the industry are also addressed. The approach proposed in this paper focuses on existing and new proposed safeguards/barriers and how they could be monitored and managed. The paper aims to set the path forward for structured risk based thinking in managing rail safety. The first part of the paper explains the barrier based risk assessment approach using the Lac Megantic accident as an example. A bow-tie is developed to deconstruct the incident timeline and to capture the safeguards that existed at that time and their working status. This diagram cross references Transport Canada’s Investigation findings. The second part of the paper evaluates the new mitigation measures proposed by FRA HM 251 rulemaking (“Enhanced Tank Car Standards and Operational Controls for High-Hazard Flammable Trains” Final Rulemaking”) as potential safeguards and their impact on the overall risk of transportation. A baseline risk is first established for transporting crude by rail assuming some common safeguards in place. A simple Quantitative Risk Assessment methodology including likelihood and consequence was then used to estimate the base case risk. Risk mitigation and effect of any additional new measures like Changes in Rail Tank Car design, Oil Conditioning, Enhanced Braking to Mitigate Damage in Derailments, Speed Limit changes, Positive train control, Train manning when loading are assessed.

An integrated risk-assessment framework for multiple threats to floodplain values in the Kakadu Region, Australia, under a changing climate

2018 ◽  
Vol 69 (7) ◽  
pp. 1159 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Bayliss ◽  
C. M. Finlayson ◽  
J. Innes ◽  
A. Norman-López ◽  
R. Bartolo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Invasive Species ◽  
Freshwater Ecosystems ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Integrated Risk Assessment ◽  
Invasive Species Control ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Time Frames

The internationally important river–floodplains of the Kakadu Region in northern Australia are at risk from invasive species and future sea-level rise–saltwater inundation (SLR–SWI), requiring assessments of multiple cumulative risks over different time frames. An integrated risk-assessment framework was developed to assess threats from feral animals and aquatic weeds at three SLR-scenario time frames (present-day, 2070 and 2100) to natural (magpie goose habitats), cultural (indigenous hunting–fishing sites) and economic (tourism revenue less invasive species control costs) values. Probability density functions (pdfs) were fitted to spatial data to characterise values and threats, and combined with Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties. All risks were integrated in a Bayesian belief network to undertake ‘what if’ management-scenario analyses, and incorporated known ecological interactions and uncertainties. Coastal landscapes and socio-ecological systems in the region will be very different by 2100 as a result of SLR; freshwater ecosystems will transform to marine-dominated ecosystems and cannot be managed back to analogue conditions. In this context, future invasive-species risks will decrease, reflecting substantial loss of freshwater habitats previously at risk and a reduction in the extent of invasive species, highlighting the importance of freshwater refugia for the survival of iconic species.

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