scholarly journals Gênese, frequência e intensidade das precipitações de granizo nas Mesorregiões Centro Oriental e Sudeste Paranaense, Brasil

GeoTextos ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Felipe da Silva Caldana ◽  
Alan Carlos Martelócio
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Event ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
Civil Defense ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Genesis Frequency

A precipitação de granizo, um evento extremo caracterizado por precipitação de água em estado sólido, tem alta capacidade destrutiva nos meios rural e urbano, gerando transtornos e prejuízos frequentes. A Mesorregião Centro Oriental Paranaense (MRCOP) e a Mesorregião Sudeste Paranaense (MRSEP) possuem uma grande área de produção agrícola e aproximadamente 900 mil habitantes, que podem estar vulneráveis a eventos meteorológicos extremos, sendo necessários estudos que auxiliem o planejamento e as tomadas de decisão neste recorte específico. Desta forma, este trabalho teve por objetivo identificar a gênese, a frequência e a intensidade das precipitações de granizo nas Mesorregiões Centro Oriental e Sudeste Paranaense, fornecendo suporte para o planejamento e a adoção de preventivas de combate ao impacto desse fenômeno. Foram utilizadas três fontes distintas de dados: estações agrometeorológicas, imagens de satélite e relatórios de ocorrências, danos e situações de emergência da Defesa Civil. Foram identificados 37 decretos de situação de emergência vinculados a granizo e 372 mil pessoas afetadas nas mesoregiões, em 19 anos de análise. Os sistemas convectivos e as frentes frias foram identificados como os principais sistemas meteorológicos atuantes na formação de granizo nestas mesoregiões. Com ausência de planejamento para redução da vulnerabilidade, a exposição aos eventos extremos meteorológicos permanece frequente. Abstract GENESIS, FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY OF HAIL PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL-WESTERN AND SOUTHEAST OF THE PARANÁ STATE, BRAZIL Hail precipitation, an extreme event characterized by solid state water precipitation, has high destructive capacity in rural and urban environments, generating frequent disturbances and losses. The Central-Western Paraná state Meso-region (MRCOP) and The Southeast Paraná state Meso-region (MRSEP) in southern Brazil has a large agricultural production area and approximately 900 thousand inhabitants, which may be vulnerable to extreme weather events, and studies are needed to assist in decision making in these regions. This work aimed to identify the genesis, frequency and intensity of hail precipitation in The Central-Western Paraná state Meso-region (MRCOP) and The Southeast Paraná state Meso-region (MRSEP), providing support for the planning and adoption of preventive measures to combat the impact of this phenomenon. Three different sources of data were used: agrometeorological stations, satellite images and reports of occurrences, damages and emergency situations issued by the Civil Defense. Thirty-seven emergency decrees related to hail and 372 thousand people affected in the regions were identified in 19 years of analysis. The convective systems and the cold fronts were identified as the main meteorological systems working in the genesis of hail in these regions. In the absence of planning for vulnerability reduction, exposure to extreme weather events remains frequent.

scholarly journals Gênese, Impacto e a Variabilidade das Precipitações de Granizo na Mesorregião Centro-Sul Paranaense, Brasil / Genesis, Impact and Variability of Hail Precipitations in the Central South Mesoregion of the State of Paraná, Brazil

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (56) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Felipe da Silva Caldana ◽  
Anderson Paulo Rudke ◽  
Iara Da Silva ◽  
Pablo Ricardo Nitsche ◽  
Paulo Henrique Caramori
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Event ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
Civil Defense ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Central South

Condições de tempo e clima são essenciais para a agricultura e o desenvolvimento da sociedade, entretanto, sua dinâmica pouco compreendida pode comprometer algumas atividades humanas. A precipitação de granizo, um evento extremo caracterizado por precipitação de água em estado sólido, tem alta capacidade destrutiva no meio rural e urbano, gerando transtornos e prejuízos frequentes. A Mesorregião Centro-Sul Paranaense (MRCSP) possui uma grande área de produção agrícola e aproximadamente 500 mil habitantes, que podem estar vulneráveis a eventos meteorológicos extremos, sendo necessário estudos que auxiliem o planejamento para auxiliar tomadas de decisão na região. Desta forma, este trabalho teve por objetivo identificar a gênese, frequência, ocorrência, impactos e a variabilidade de precipitações de granizo na MRCSP, fornecendo suporte para o planejamento e adoção de preventivas de combate ao impacto desse fenômeno na região. Foram utilizadas quatro fontes distintas de dados: estações agrometeorológicas, jornais regionais, imagens de satélite e relatórios de ocorrências, danos e situações de emergência da Defesa Civil. Foram identificados 37 decretos de situação de emergência vinculados a granizo e 395.057 pessoas afetadas na região, em 18 anos de análise. O principal dano observado foi o destelhamento. Em Laranjeiras do Sul observou-se, em média, 5,4 eventos por ano. Os sistemas convectivos e as frentes frias foram identificados como os principais sistemas meteorológicos atuantes na formação de granizo nesta região. Os resultados demonstraram alta frequência de precipitações de granizo em toda região. Com ausência de planejamento para redução da vulnerabilidade, a exposição aos eventos extremos meteorológicos permanece frequente.Palavras–chave: vulnerabilidade, risco climático, eventos extremos, clima urbano.Abstract Weather and climate conditions are essential for agriculture and the development of society; however, their little-understood dynamics can compromise some human activities. Hail precipitation, an extreme event characterised by solid state water precipitation, has high destructive capacity in rural and urban environments, generating frequent disturbances and losses. The Central-South Paraná state Meso-region (MRCSP) in southern Brazil has a large agricultural production area and approximately 500 thousand inhabitants, which may be vulnerable to extreme weather events, and studies are needed to assist in decision making in this region. This work aimed to identify the genesis, frequency, occurrence, impacts and variability of hail precipitation in the MRCSP, providing support for the planning and adoption of preventive measures to combat the impact of this phenomenon. Four different sources of data were used: agrometeorological stations, regional newspapers, satellite images and reports of occurrences, damages and emergencies issued by the Civil Defense. Thirty-seven emergency decrees related to hail and 395,057 people affected in the region were identified in 18 years of analysis. The primary damage observed was roof destruction. In Laranjeiras do Sul, an average of 5.4 events were observed per year. The convective systems and the cold fronts were identified as the central meteorological systems working in the genesis of hail in this region. In the absence of planning for vulnerability reduction, exposure to extreme weather events remains frequent.Keywords: vulnerability, climate risk, extreme events, urban climate.

Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (49) ◽  
pp. e2112087118
Author(s):  
Nicholas J. Leach ◽  
Antje Weisheimer ◽  
Myles R. Allen ◽  
Tim Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
The Impact

Attribution of extreme weather events has expanded rapidly as a field over the past decade. However, deficiencies in climate model representation of key dynamical drivers of extreme events have led to some concerns over the robustness of climate model–based attribution studies. It has also been suggested that the unconditioned risk-based approach to event attribution may result in false negative results due to dynamical noise overwhelming any climate change signal. The “storyline” attribution framework, in which the impact of climate change on individual drivers of an extreme event is examined, aims to mitigate these concerns. Here we propose a methodology for attribution of extreme weather events using the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) medium-range forecast model that successfully predicted the event. The use of a successful forecast ensures not only that the model is able to accurately represent the event in question, but also that the analysis is unequivocally an attribution of this specific event, rather than a mixture of multiple different events that share some characteristic. Since this attribution methodology is conditioned on the component of the event that was predictable at forecast initialization, we show how adjusting the lead time of the forecast can flexibly set the level of conditioning desired. This flexible adjustment of the conditioning allows us to synthesize between a storyline (highly conditioned) and a risk-based (relatively unconditioned) approach. We demonstrate this forecast-based methodology through a partial attribution of the direct radiative effect of increased CO2 concentrations on the exceptional European winter heatwave of February 2019.

Does extreme rainfall lead to heavy losses in the food industry?

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 244-266
Author(s):  
Edimilson Costa Lucas ◽  
Wesley Mendes-Da-Silva ◽  
Gustavo Silva Araujo
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Food Industry ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Managing the risks associated to world food production is an important challenge for governments. A range of factors, among them extreme weather events, has threatened food production in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of extreme rainfall events on the food industry in Brazil, a prominent player in this industry. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the AR-GARCH-GPD hybrid methodology to identify whether extreme rainfall affects the stock price of food companies. To do so, the authors collected the daily closing price of the 16 food industry companies listed on the Brazilian stock exchange (B3), in January 2015. Findings The results indicate that these events have a significant impact on stock returns: on more than half of the days immediately following the heavy rain that fell between 28 February 2005 and 30 December 2014, returns were significantly low, leading to average daily losses of 1.97 per cent. These results point to the relevance of the need for instruments to hedge against weather risk, particularly in the food industry. Originality/value Given that extreme weather events have been occurring more and more frequently, financial literature has documented attempts at assessing the economic impacts of weather changes. There is little research, however, into assessing the impacts of these events at corporate level.

scholarly journals Extreme Weather Impacts on Inland Waterways Transport of Yangtze River

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijun Liu ◽  
Yuanqiao Wen ◽  
Youjia Liang ◽  
Fan Zhang ◽  
Tiantian Yang
Keyword(s):  
Heat Wave ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Climate Zone ◽  
Inland Waterways ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

The impact of extreme weather events on the navigation environment in the inland waterways of the Yangtze River is an interdisciplinary hotspot in subjects of maritime traffic safety and maritime meteorology, and it is also a difficult point for the implementation of decision-making and management by maritime and meteorological departments in China. The objective of this study is to review the variation trends and distribution patterns in the periods of adverse and extreme weather events that are expected to impact on inland waterways transport (IWT) on the Yangtze River. The frequency of severe weather events, together with the changes in their spatial extension and intensity, is analyzed based on the ERA-Interim datasets (1979–2017) and the GHCNDEX dataset (1979–2017), as well as the research progresses and important events (2004–2016) affecting the navigation environment. The impacts of extreme weather events on IWT accidents and phenomena of extreme weather (e.g., thunderstorms, lightning, hail, and tornadoes) that affect the navigation environment are also analyzed and discussed. The results show that: (1) the sections located in the plain climate zone is affected by extreme weather in every season, especially strong winds and heat waves; (2) the sections located in the hilly mountain climate zone is affected particularly by spring extreme phenomena, especially heat waves; (3) the sections located in the Sichuan Basin climate zone is dominated by the extreme weather phenomena in autumn, except cold waves; (4) the occurrence frequency of potential flood risk events is relatively high under rainstorm conditions and wind gusts almost affect the navigation environment of the Jiangsu and Shanghai sections in every year; (5) the heat wave indices (TXx, TR, and WSDI) tend to increase and the temperature of the coldest day of the year gradually increases; (6) the high occurrences of IWT accidents need to be emphasized by relevant departments, caused by extreme weather during the dry season; and (7) the trends and the degree of attention of extreme weather events affecting IWT are ranked as: heat wave > heavy rainfall > wind gust > cold spell > storm. Understanding the seasonal and annual frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events has reference significance for regional management of the Yangtze River.

On the Landslide Hazard with the Impact of Climate Change in Central Taiwan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keh-Jian Shou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Tectonic Activity ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Central Taiwan ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Taiwan Area

<p>Due to active tectonic activity, the rock formations are young and highly fractured in Taiwan area. The dynamic changing of river morphology makes the highly weathered formations or colluviums prone to landslide and debris flow. For the past decade, the effect of climate change is significant and creates more and more extreme weather events. The change of rainfall behavior significantly changes the landslide behavior, which makes the large-scale landslides, like the Shiaolin landslide, possible. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the new technologies for landslide investigation, monitoring, analysis, early warning, etc.</p><p>Since the landslide hazards in Taiwan area are mainly induced by heavy rainfall, due to climate change and the subsequent extreme weather events, the probability of landslides is also increased. Focusing on the upstreams of the watersheds in Central Taiwan, this project studied the behavior and hazard of shallow and deep-seated landslides. Different types of susceptibility models in different catchment scales were tested, in which the control factors were analyzed and discussed. This study also employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to predict the extreme rainfalls in the future. Such that the future hazard of the shallow and deep-seated landslide in the study area can be predicted. The results of predictive analysis can be applied for risk prevention and management in the study area.</p>

The Impact of Disasters on Japan’s Inbound Tourism Demand

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (sp) ◽  
pp. 699-708 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lihui Wu ◽  
◽  
Haruo Hayashi ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Intervention Models ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Inbound Tourism ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of disasters on international tourism demand for Japan by applying Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) intervention models that focus on evaluating change patterns and the duration of effects by observing variations in parameters. Japan suffered a variety of disasters, especially natural disasters due to its geographical location, so we have divided these disasters into three types: geological disasters, extreme weather events and “others” such as terrorist attacks, infectious diseases, and economic crises. Based on the principle of preparing for the worst, we selected 4 cases for each disaster type, for 12 in all. Results suggest that (1) large-scale disasters such as great earthquakes impacted negatively on inbound tourism demand for Japan; (2) not all disasters resulted in an abrupt drop in inbound tourist arrivals, extreme weather events, for example, did not decrease inbound tourism demand significantly; (3) impact caused by disasters was temporary.

Extreme weather events (EWE): the impact on health in Italy.

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paola Michelozzi* ◽  
Manuela De Sario ◽  
Francesca de'Donato
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals The impact of two extreme weather events and other causes of death on Carnaby’s Black Cockatoo: a promise of things to come for a threatened species?

2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denis A Saunders ◽  
Peter Mawson ◽  
Rick Dawson
Keyword(s):  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Dramatic Decline ◽  
To Come ◽  
Stochastic Events ◽  
The Impact

Carnaby’s Black Cockatoo is an endangered species which has undergone a dramatic decline in range and abundance in southwestern Australia. Between October 2009 and March 2010 the species was subjected to a possible outbreak of disease in one of its major breeding areas and exposed to an extremely hot day and a severe localized hail storm. In addition, collisions with motor vehicles are becoming an increasing threat to the species. All of these stochastic events resulted in many fatalities. Species such as Carnaby’s Black Cockatoo which form large flocks are particularly susceptible to localized events such as hail storms, contagious disease and collisions with motor vehicles. Extreme temperatures may have major impacts on both flocking and non-flocking species. Predictions of climate change in the southwest of Western Australia are that there will be an increased frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves and severe hail storms. The implications of more events of this nature on Carnaby’s Black Cockatoo are discussed.

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