On the Landslide Hazard with the Impact of Climate Change in Central Taiwan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keh-Jian Shou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Tectonic Activity ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Central Taiwan ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Taiwan Area

<p>Due to active tectonic activity, the rock formations are young and highly fractured in Taiwan area. The dynamic changing of river morphology makes the highly weathered formations or colluviums prone to landslide and debris flow. For the past decade, the effect of climate change is significant and creates more and more extreme weather events. The change of rainfall behavior significantly changes the landslide behavior, which makes the large-scale landslides, like the Shiaolin landslide, possible. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the new technologies for landslide investigation, monitoring, analysis, early warning, etc.</p><p>Since the landslide hazards in Taiwan area are mainly induced by heavy rainfall, due to climate change and the subsequent extreme weather events, the probability of landslides is also increased. Focusing on the upstreams of the watersheds in Central Taiwan, this project studied the behavior and hazard of shallow and deep-seated landslides. Different types of susceptibility models in different catchment scales were tested, in which the control factors were analyzed and discussed. This study also employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to predict the extreme rainfalls in the future. Such that the future hazard of the shallow and deep-seated landslide in the study area can be predicted. The results of predictive analysis can be applied for risk prevention and management in the study area.</p>

On the Landslide Hazard with the Impact of Climate Change in Central Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keh-Jian Shou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Tectonic Activity ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Central Taiwan ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Taiwan Area

<p>Due to active tectonic activity, the rock formations are young and highly fractured in Taiwan area. The dynamic changing of river morphology makes the highly weathered formations or colluviums prone to landslide and debris flow. For the past decade, the effect of climate change is significant and creates more and more extreme weather events. The change of rainfall behavior significantly changes the landslide behavior, which makes the large-scale landslides, like the Shiaolin landslide, possible. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the new technologies for landslide investigation, monitoring, analysis, early warning, etc.</p><p>Since the landslide hazards in Taiwan area are mainly induced by heavy rainfall, due to climate change and the subsequent extreme weather events, the probability of landslides is also increased. Focusing on the upstreams of the watersheds in Central Taiwan, this project studied the behavior and hazard of shallow and deep-seated landslides. Different types of susceptibility models in different catchment scales were tested, in which the control factors were analyzed and discussed. This study also employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to predict the extreme rainfalls in the future. Such that the future hazard of the shallow and deep-seated landslide in the study area can be predicted. The results of predictive analysis can be applied for risk prevention and management in the study area.</p>

On the Rainfall Induced Shallow and Deep-seated Landslide Hazard in Central Taiwan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keh-Jian Shou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Slope Angle ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Tectonic Activity ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

<p>Due to active tectonic activity, the rock formations are young and highly fractured in Taiwan area. The dynamic changing of river morphology makes the highly weathered formations or colluviums prone to landslide and debris flow. In addition, due to the impact of 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, the hazards of landslides and debris flows were significantly increased. For the past decade, the effect of climate change is significant and creates more and more extreme weather events. The change of rainfall behavior significantly changes the landslide behavior, which makes the large-scale landslides, like the Shiaolin landslide, possible. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the new technologies for large-scale landslide investigation, monitoring, analysis, early warning, etc.</p><p>Since the landslide hazards are mainly induced by heavy rainfall, due to climate change and the subsequent extreme weather events, the probability of large-scale landslides is also increased. Focusing on the slate formation area in the upstreams of the Tachia River, Wu River, and Chuoshui River, this project studied the behavior and hazard of shallow and deep-seated landslides. This study adopts the SHALSTAB model with the consideration of slope angle to classify the landslides, and then established the landslide susceptibility models based on the classified landslide inventories. Different types of susceptibility models in different catchment scales were tested, in which the control factors were analyzed and discussed. This study also employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to predict the extreme rainfalls in the future. Such that the future hazard of the shallow and deep-seated landslide in the study area can be predicted. The results of predictive analysis can be applied for risk prevention and management in the study area.</p>

scholarly journals Weather Literacy in Times of Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 435-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadine Fleischhut ◽  
Stefan M. Herzog ◽  
Ralph Hertwig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
The Public ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Weather Risks

AbstractAs climate change unfolds, extreme weather events are on the rise worldwide. According to experts, extreme weather risks already outrank those of terrorism and migration in likelihood and impact. But how well does the public understand weather risks and forecast uncertainty and thus grasp the amplified weather risks that climate change poses for the future? In a nationally representative survey (N = 1004; Germany), we tested the public’s weather literacy and awareness of climate change using 62 factual questions. Many respondents misjudged important weather risks (e.g., they were unaware that UV radiation can be higher under patchy cloud cover than on a cloudless day) and struggled to connect weather conditions to their impacts (e.g., they overestimated the distance to a thunderstorm). Most misinterpreted a probabilistic forecast deterministically, yet they strongly underestimated the uncertainty of deterministic forecasts. Respondents with higher weather literacy obtained weather information more often and spent more time outside but were not more educated. Those better informed about climate change were only slightly more weather literate. Overall, the public does not seem well equipped to anticipate weather risks in the here and now and may thus also fail to fully grasp what climate change implies for the future. These deficits in weather literacy highlight the need for impact forecasts that translate what the weather may be into what the weather may do and for transparent communication of uncertainty to the public. Boosting weather literacy may help to improve the public’s understanding of weather and climate change risks, thereby fostering informed decisions and mitigation support.

scholarly journals Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Mediterranean Finfish Production: A Case Study in Greece.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Orestis Stavrakidis-Zachou ◽  
Konstadia Lika ◽  
Panagiotis Anastasiadis ◽  
Nikos Papandroulakis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Mediterranean Country ◽  
Farm Level ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual

Abstract Finfish aquaculture in the Mediterranean Sea faces increasing challenges due to climate change while potential adaptation requires a robust assessment of the arising threats and opportunities. This paper presents an approach developed to investigate effects of climate drivers on Greek aquaculture, a representative Mediterranean country with a leading role in the sector. Using a farm level approach, Dynamic Energy Budget models for European seabass and meagre were developed and environmental forcing was used to simulate changes in production and farm profitability under IPCC scenarios RCP45 and RCP85. The effects of temperature and extreme weather events at the individual and farm level were considered along with that of husbandry parameters such as stocking timing, market size, and farm location (inshore, offshore) for nine regions. The simulations suggest that at the individual level fish may benefit from warmer temperatures in the future in terms of growth, thus reaching commercial sizes faster, while the husbandry parameters may have as large an effect on growth as the projected shifts in climatic cues. However, this benefit will be largely offset by the adverse effects of extreme weather events at the population level. Such events will be more frequent in the future and, depending on the intensity one assigns to them, they could cause losses in biomass and farm profits that range from mild to detrimental for the industry. Overall, these results provide quantification of some of the potential threats for an important aquaculture sector while suggesting possibilities to benefit from emerging opportunities. Therefore, they could contribute to improving the sector’s readiness for tackling important challenges in the future.

scholarly journals On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah E Perkins-Kirkpatrick ◽  
Daithi Stone ◽  
Dann M. Mitchell ◽  
Suzanne M. Rosier ◽  
Andrew David King ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Impacts ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Care Needs ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Investigations into the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme weather events are now starting to extend into analysis of anthropogenic impacts on non-climate (e.g. socio-economic) systems. However, care needs to be taken when making this extension, because methodological choices regarding extreme weather attribution can become crucial when considering the events’ impacts. The fraction of attributable risk (FAR) method, useful in extreme weather attribution research, has a very specific interpretation concerning a class of events, and there is potential to misinterpret results from weather event analyses as being applicable to specific events and their impact outcomes. Using two case studies of meteorological extremes and their impacts, we argue that FAR is not generally appropriate when estimating the magnitude of the anthropogenic signal behind a specific impact. Attribution assessments on impacts should always be carried out in addition to assessment of the associated meteorological event, since it cannot be assumed that the anthropogenic signal behind the weather is equivalent to the signal behind the impact because of lags and nonlinearities in the processes through which the impact system reacts to weather. Whilst there are situations where employing FAR to understand the climate change signal behind a class of impacts is useful (e.g. “system breaking” events), more useful results will generally be produced if attribution questions on specific impacts are reframed to focus on changes in the impact return value and magnitude across large samples of factual and counterfactual climate model and impact simulations. We advocate for constant interdisciplinary collaboration as essential for effective and robust impact attribution assessments.

Analysis of Flood Vulnerability and Transit Availability with a Changing Climate in Harris County, Texas

2019 ◽  
Vol 2673 (6) ◽  
pp. 258-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua A. Pulcinella ◽  
Arne M. E. Winguth ◽  
Diane Jones Allen ◽  
Niveditha Dasa Gangadhar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Harris County ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Block Groups ◽  
The Impact

Hurricanes and other extreme precipitation events can have devastating effects on population and infrastructure that can create problems for emergency responses and evacuation. Projected climate change and associated global warming may lead to an increase in extreme weather events that results in greater inundation from storm surges or massive precipitation. For example, record flooding during Hurricane Katrina or, more recently, during Hurricane Harvey in 2017, led to many people being cut off from aid and unable to evacuate. This study focuses on the impact of severe weather under climate change for areas of Harris County, TX that are susceptible to flooding either by storm surge or extreme rainfall and evaluates the transit demand and availability in those areas. Future risk of flooding in Harris County was assessed by GIS mapping of the 100-year and 500-year FEMA floodplains and most extreme category 5 storm tide and global sea level rise. The flood maps have been overlaid with population demographics and transit accessibility to determine vulnerable populations in need of transit during a disaster. It was calculated that 70% of densely populated census block groups are located within the floodplains, including a disproportional amount of low-income block groups. The results also show a lack of transit availability in many areas susceptible to extreme storm surge exaggerated with sea level rise. Further study of these areas to improve transit infrastructure and evacuation strategies will improve the outcomes of extreme weather events in the future.

scholarly journals Projecting climate change impacts on Mediterranean finfish production: a case study in Greece

2021 ◽  
Vol 165 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Orestis Stavrakidis-Zachou ◽  
Konstadia Lika ◽  
Panagiotis Anastasiadis ◽  
Nikos Papandroulakis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Mediterranean Country ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual

AbstractFinfish aquaculture in the Mediterranean Sea faces increasing challenges due to climate change, while potential adaptation requires a robust assessment of the arising threats and opportunities. This paper presents an approach developed to investigate effects of climate drivers on Greek aquaculture, a representative Mediterranean country with a leading role in the sector. Using a farm level approach, dynamic energy budget models for European seabass and meagre were developed, and environmental forcing was used to simulate changes in production and farm profitability under IPCC scenarios RCP45 and RCP85. The effects of temperature and extreme weather events at the individual and farm levels were considered along with that of husbandry parameters such as stocking timing, market size, and farm location (inshore, offshore) for nine regions. The simulations suggest that at the individual level, fish may benefit from warmer temperatures in the future in terms of growth, thus reaching commercial sizes faster, while the husbandry parameters may have as large an effect on growth as the projected shifts in climatic cues. However, this benefit will be largely offset by the adverse effects of extreme weather events at the population level. Such events will be more frequent in the future and, depending on the intensity one assigns to them, they could cause losses in biomass and farm profits that range from mild to detrimental for the industry. Overall, these results provide quantification of some of the potential threats for an important aquaculture sector while suggesting possibilities to benefit from emerging opportunities. Therefore, they could contribute to improving the sector’s readiness for tackling important challenges in the future.

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tanker Design

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elzbieta M. Bitner-Gregersen ◽  
Torfinn Ho̸rte ◽  
Rolf Skjong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Structure Design ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Research Activities ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

Global warming and extreme weather events reported in the last years have attracted a lot of attention in academia, industry and media. The ongoing debate around the observed climate change has focused on three important questions: will occurrence of extreme weather events increase in the future, which geographical locations will be most affected, and to what degree will climate change have impact on future ship traffic and design of ships and offshore structures? The present study shortly reviews the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, AR4, [1] and other relevant publications regarding projections of meteorological and oceanographic conditions in the 21st century and beyond with design needs in focus. Emphasis is on wave climate and its potential implications on safe design and operations of ship structures. A risk based approach for marine structure design accounting for climate change is proposed. The impact of expected wave climate change on ship design is demonstrated for five oil tankers, ranging from Product tanker to VLCC. Consequences of climate change for the hull girder failure probability and hence the steel weight of the deck in the midship region is shown. Recommendations for future research activities allowing adaptation to climate change are given.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on the Food System in Toronto

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 2344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimberly Zeuli ◽  
Austin Nijhuis ◽  
Ronald Macfarlane ◽  
Taryn Ridsdale
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Access ◽  
Food System ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Food Distribution ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

As part of its Climate Change and Health Strategy, in 2017, Toronto Public Health engaged stakeholders from across the food system to complete a high-level vulnerability assessment of the impact of climate change on the food system in Toronto. Using the Ontario Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Guidelines, the City of Toronto’s High-Level Risk Assessment Tool, and a strategic framework developed by the Initiative for a Competitive Inner City, Toronto Public Health identified the most significant extreme weather event risks to food processing, distribution and access in Toronto. Risks associated with three extreme weather events that are the most likely to occur in Toronto due to climate change were analyzed: significant rain and flooding, an extended heat wave, and a major winter ice storm. The analysis finds that while extreme weather events could potentially disrupt Toronto’s food supply, the current risk of an extended, widespread food supply disruption is relatively low. However, the findings highlight that a concerted effort across the food system, including electrical and fuel providers, is needed to address other key vulnerabilities that could impact food access, especially for vulnerable populations. Interruptions to electricity will have food access and food safety impacts, while interruptions to the transportation network and fuel will have food distribution and access impacts. Actions to mitigate these risks could include addressing food access vulnerabilities through ongoing city-wide strategies and integrating food access into the City’s emergency response planning. The next steps will include engaging with multiple partners across the city to understand and strengthen the “last mile” of food distribution and develop community food resilience action plans for vulnerable neighbourhoods.

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