Dependence Structure Between Renminbi Movements and Volatility of Foreign Exchange Rate Returns

This article investigates the linkages of the movements in Renminbi (RMB) to volatility of exchange rate returns of other currencies before and after the yuan devaluation on 11 August 2015. A comparison between the onshore Chinese yuan (CNY) and the offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) is made. Standard regression methods underestimate the tail dependence between yuan and other exchange rate volatility, as financial data are non-normally distributed, especially when extreme event occurs. We apply Gumbel copulas to capture the presence of tail dependence between RMB returns and the volatility of exchange rate returns for 13 selected currencies, and found dependencies not revealed by the standard ARCH models. The tail dependence has increased after the RMB devaluation, suggesting that RMB depreciation is associated with higher downside risks in these currencies. This is most obvious in the currencies of Asian and ASEAN-5 countries that have strong trade and financial linkages with China. The dependence structure has shifted away from the dominance of onshore CNY rates before the devaluation to the growing importance of more volatile offshore CNH rates after the devaluation. Hence, any large depreciation in CNH will lead to a higher volatility in the other exchange rate returns, and the corresponding downside currency risks are higher than those of the CNY.

The Impact of the ECB’s Quantitative Easing Policy on Capital Flows in the Cesee Region

This paper attempts to empirically assess the impact of the ECB’s quantitative easing policy on capital flows in the countries of the Central and South Eastern region. Given the tight trade and financial linkages of the region with the euro area, one should expect that the buoyant liquidity provided by the ECB might affect the size of the capital inflows. We test this hypothesis by employing panel estimation on a sample of 14 countries CESEE countries for the 2003-2015 period. Contrary to the expected outcome, the results reveal either negative or insignificant impact of the change in the ECB balance sheet on the different types of capital inflows. The results suggest that the magnitude of the crisis, to which the ECB responded to was immense, hence precluding any significant impact of the monetary easing on capital flows in the region. The inclusion of a dummy in the model, to control for the 2008 crisis confirms the findings from the first specification and also does not change the finding on the ECB quantitative easing impact on the capital flows. The impact of the crisis dummy on capital flows is negative and it holds for almost all types of capital inflows, except for the government debt flows, which is consistent with the countercyclical fiscal policies and rising public debt after the crisis.

IMPACT OF EUROZONE SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS ON CHINA AND INDIA

This paper analyzes the impact of the Eurozone debt crisis on China and India. Using Markov-switching analysis, we discern regimes in economic growth as well as financial markets and study the impact of the global financial crisis and Eurozone crisis on the same. We identify vulnerability and robustness factors governing the degree of exposure and resilience to the crisis for both these economies. In view of strong trade and financial linkages, the Eurozone crisis may have marred prospects of recovery in the aftermath of the recent Great Recession in both China and India. China, however, is found to be more resilient to the crisis possibly due to stronger macroeconomic fundamentals.

CEE's own risks pose a greater threat than China

Subject CEE markets' resilience to China-induced sell-off. Significance While investor sentiment towards emerging markets (EMs) has deteriorated further because of mounting concerns about China's economy and financial markets, the currencies and government bonds of the main Central-East European (CEE) economies have proved remarkably resilient. Even equity markets, which have suffered sharp falls across the EM asset class, have fared better than in other regions, with Polish, Hungarian and Czech stocks falling by 5.0-6.0% in dollar terms in August, compared with 10.0% and 9.5% for emerging Asian and Latin American shares, respectively. CEE markets' resilience stems from the region's negligible trade and financial linkages to China, relatively strong fundamentals and the sentiment-boosting effects of the ECB's programme of quantitative easing (QE). Impacts EMs' significantly stronger fundamentals make comparisons between the current China-led sell-off and earlier crises in the 1990s misleading. There will continue to be a strong correlation between CEE financial markets and price action in the euro-area. The ECB's full-blown QE should help mitigate the adverse effects of a rise in US interest rates. Very high foreign participation in Polish and Hungarian government debt poses a risk should sentiment towards EMs deteriorate more sharply.