CEE's own risks pose a greater threat than China

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East European ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
Trade And Financial Linkages ◽  
Better Than

Subject CEE markets' resilience to China-induced sell-off. Significance While investor sentiment towards emerging markets (EMs) has deteriorated further because of mounting concerns about China's economy and financial markets, the currencies and government bonds of the main Central-East European (CEE) economies have proved remarkably resilient. Even equity markets, which have suffered sharp falls across the EM asset class, have fared better than in other regions, with Polish, Hungarian and Czech stocks falling by 5.0-6.0% in dollar terms in August, compared with 10.0% and 9.5% for emerging Asian and Latin American shares, respectively. CEE markets' resilience stems from the region's negligible trade and financial linkages to China, relatively strong fundamentals and the sentiment-boosting effects of the ECB's programme of quantitative easing (QE). Impacts EMs' significantly stronger fundamentals make comparisons between the current China-led sell-off and earlier crises in the 1990s misleading. There will continue to be a strong correlation between CEE financial markets and price action in the euro-area. The ECB's full-blown QE should help mitigate the adverse effects of a rise in US interest rates. Very high foreign participation in Polish and Hungarian government debt poses a risk should sentiment towards EMs deteriorate more sharply.

Hungary's return to investment grade is likely in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East European ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
The Core ◽  
Investment Grade

Significance Moody's, another agency which also rates Hungary one notch below investment grade, has just raised its outlook on Hungary's rating to 'positive' from 'stable'. Hungary's financial markets are closely correlated with those of the core of the euro-area and are benefiting from heightened expectations that the ECB will provide a further burst of monetary stimulus at its next policy meeting on December 3. Impacts Financial markets have already 'priced in' the credit-rating agencies' assessments so other factors will drive investor sentiment changes. Forex-denominated mortgages are considered to be one of the main sources of financial vulnerability in Emerging Europe. Hungary is the only Central-East European (CEE) country to have resolved this vexed issue. CEE is the EM region likely to benefit the most from aggressive ECB monetary stimulus offsetting the fallout from higher US interest rates.

Ultra-loose monetary policy will soon run its course

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Target Range ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds

Significance Expectations that the Fed will refrain from hiking its benchmark rates from its target range of 0.25-0.5% and that the Japanese central bank will provide further stimulus are suppressing volatility in financial markets and fuelling demand for risk assets. However, evidence that "overburdened" monetary policy is losing its efficacy triggered a sell-off in bonds and equities on September 9, increasing the scope for sharper price falls as investors worry that central banks have run out of ammunition. Impacts Services expanded in August at their slowest pace since 2010, making it less likely that the Fed will raise interest rates this month. EM bond and equity mutual funds have enjoyed a surge in inflows since the Brexit vote as yield-hungry investors pour money into risk assets Oil, a key determinant of investor sentiment, will stay below 50 dollars/barrel unless major producers agree measures to stabilise prices.

Emerging Europe will weather storm from China

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Bond Funds ◽  
Primary Determinant

Significance The currency and debt markets of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) are proving resilient to fallout from the turmoil in China's financial markets, now the primary determinant of investor sentiment towards developing economies. Negligible trade linkages with China and liquidity support from the ECB are helping underpin favourable sentiment towards the region. Impacts EM equity and bond funds will continue to suffer outflows, following record bond redemptions in 2015, which continued into early January. The dramatic slide in oil prices is putting further downward pressure on CE inflation rates; there is outright deflation in Poland. Hungary is mulling further cuts in interest rates. Despite Turkey's favourable status as a major oil importer, its currency has plunged by 31% against the dollar over the past year. For CE, the lower the oil price, the greater the likelihood of further ECB stimulus, buoying local bonds and currencies further.

Brazil is critical corporate debt risk in region

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Corporate Debt ◽  
Sharp Rise ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Regional Index ◽  
Better Than

Subject Variations in the performance of regional corporate debt. Significance Annual returns on Latin American dollar-denominated corporate bonds fell nearly 9% last year, compared with gains of 19.0% and 3.5% for Emerging European and Asian corporate debt respectively, according to JP Morgan's benchmark corporate emerging market bond index (CEMBI). The poor returns on Latin American corporate debt stem mainly from sharp losses in both the Brazilian component of the CEMBI and the energy and infrastructure sub-sectors of the regional index. Impacts EM equities and currencies will continue to suffer significantly more than bonds. Debt markets -- in particular government bonds -- remain underpinned by demand from local institutional investors. Dollar-denominated EM bonds are faring better than local currency debt. However, the sharp rise in the dollar is endangering the ability of corporates to service their sizeable foreign debts. Despite increasing EM vulnerabilities, there are no signs of a systemic liquidity or solvency crisis similar to the 1990s.

Globalization of Financial Risks and Evaluation of Common Stocks

2014 ◽  
pp. 231-240
Author(s):  
Dilaysu Cinar
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Treasury Bills ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Common Stocks ◽  
Management Policies ◽  
Globalization Strategy

Risk can be defined as uncertainty about the events that will occur in the future. Risks are encountered in all areas of life, and become more important when it comes to financial markets. Risk in financial markets is defined as investment securities. If the investment vehicle is government bonds or treasury bills, they are considered to be free of risk. Because of the sudden changes in exchange rates in the process of globalization or fluctuations in interest rates influencing the cash flows of companies, most companies consider hedging as a viable part of the globalization strategy. Risk management policies to ease problems and disasters, which may arise from the use of instruments. The stock market serves as a bridge between economic activity and finance under favor of functions such as reducing the risk of investment, and it meets the capital needs for companies. For this reason, the development of stock markets plays an important role for the global economy and finance. Thus, the aim of this chapter is to introduce financial risks and their effect on common stocks.

ECB's QE will buoy EM bond markets

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Current

Subject Opposite forces are shaping investor sentiment towards EM assets. Significance Investor sentiment towards emerging market (EM) assets is being shaped by the conflicting forces of a strong dollar and the launch of a sovereign quantitative easing (QE) programme by the ECB. While the latter is likely to encourage investment into higher-yielding assets, such as EM debt, the former will keep the currencies of developing economies under strain, particularly those most sensitive to a rise in US interest rates due to heavier reliance on capital inflows to finance large current account deficits, such as Turkey and South Africa. Impacts EM bonds will benefit from ECB-related inflows, while the strength of the dollar will keep local currencies under strain. Higher-yielding EMs will benefit the most from the ECB's bond-buying scheme since they provide the greatest scope for 'carry trades'. The collapse in oil prices is forcing EM central banks to turn increasingly dovish, putting further strain on local currencies.

Commodities rout will fuel EM concerns and volatility

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bear Market ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Country Specific

Significance This drop has taken oil into its second bear market in the space of just over a year amid a broader rout in the prices of commodities, notably copper and gold. The commodity sell-off is fuelled by mounting concerns over the economy and financial markets of China, the world's top crude importer and its largest energy user. The sell-off is exacerbated by fears over the fallout from a US interest rates rise, which could come as early as September. Country-specific risks are weighing on emerging market (EM) assets, notably the currencies of large commodity exporters such as Brazil and Russia. Impacts The sharp fall in commodity prices will exert further downward pressure on inflation in both emerging and advanced economies. Re-emerging disinflationary trends will bode ill for the ECB efforts to boost inflation in the euro-area. The commodity sell-off will exacerbate economic and political crises in Brazil and Russia. The EM currencies fall is forcing many central banks to signal an end to monetary easing or to tighten policy.

PiS policy shift puts Polish markets under strain

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
Policy Shift ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
Rating Downgrades ◽  
High Share

Significance However, the unexpected downgrade of Poland by Standard & Poor's (S&P) on January 15 has focused attention on the financial and economic policy stance of the Law and Justice (PiS) government, in particular, the party's plans for a Hungarian-style forced conversion of foreign currency (FX)-denominated mortgages in local currency contracts. Poland's equity markets have fallen sharply, although the zloty and local government bonds are proving more resilient, despite coming under increasing pressure. Impacts The threat is looming over Poland of further rating downgrades if the credibility of its fiscal and monetary policies is undermined. Emerging Europe's high share of FX-denominated debt, particularly in the south-east, might be a source of financial vulnerability. Non-resident investors are still purchasing Poland's domestic bonds and may even be attracted by the recent rise in yields. CEE's negligible trade linkages with China and favourable status as an oil importer put its financial markets among the most resilient EMs.

US Fed will struggle to raise rates much in 2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Face ◽  
Lift Off ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject US monetary policy outlook for 2016 and its global impact. Significance There is a large discrepancy between the US Federal Reserve (Fed)'s estimates for interest rates at end-2016 and the expectations of bond investors. The latter are anticipating less tightening than the 100-basis-point (bp) rise in the Federal Funds rate the Fed has pencilled in for this year. Despite a successful rates 'lift-off' on December 16, the Fed faces many challenges in raising rates in the face of mounting stress in credit markets, disinflationary pressures from the plunge in commodity prices and a contraction manufacturing. Impacts While the Fed will tighten policy, other central banks, including the ECB, will provide further stimulus, accentuating policy divergence. Investors will price in a more hawkish Fed if US inflation accelerates faster than expected, potentially leading to a sell-off. Concerns about China's economy and the commodity prices slump will also shape investor sentiment.

Another rating upgrade is likely for Hungary soon

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Grade

Significance Hungary thereby regains investment-grade status, albeit at the lowest level, from being downgraded to 'junk' because of doubts about the government's policies and the high public debt burden. Hungary's improving creditworthiness, underpinned by its current account surplus and deleveraging in the banking sector, contrasts with the increasing strain on Poland's credit rating. Political risk has become a major driver of investor sentiment towards emerging markets. Impacts Emerging market assets have become more vulnerable as investors reprice US monetary policy. Futures markets are now assigning a 51% probability to another rise in US interest rates at or before the Federal Reserve's July meeting. Central Europe's government bond markets are being supported by the persistently dovish monetary policy stance of its central banks. This contrasts with Latin America, where inflationary pressures are forcing many central banks to raise rates. Brazil, Turkey, Poland and the Philippines are among several countries where political uncertainty is a key determinant of asset prices.

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