Fractal aspects of natural growth

The work presented here puts forward a fractal aspect of natural growth. The S-shaped pattern of a logistic function is analyzed in terms of several constituent logistic functions. The approach sheds light on two familiar phenomena: the undulatory evolution of growth, which gives rise to an alternation between high-and low-growth periods, and the increasingly noticeable shrinking life cycle of products. There are some economic and political implications for the European nations. A quantitative example is given for computer sales from Digital Equipment Corporation. The approach is further generalized to suggest that any growth process can be analyzed in terms of natural-growth subprocesses. Applied to human growth this analysis yields precise definitions for the timing of transitions such as babyhood to childhood, and childhood to adolescence.

Modelling of natural growth with memory effect in economics: An application of adomian decomposition and variational iteration methods

The power-law memory effect is taken into consideration in a generalisation of the economic model of natural growth. The memory effect refers to a process's reliance on its current state and its history of previous changes. However, the study that focuses on natural growth in economics considering the memory effect with fractional order-linear differential equation model is still limited. The current investigation seeks to solve the natural growth with memory effect in the economics model and decide the best model using fractional differential equation (FDE), namely Adomian Decomposition and Variational Iteration Methods. Also, this study assumes the level of consumer loss memory during a certain time interval denoted by a parameter (α). This study showed the model of loss memory effect with 0 < α ≤ 1 given a slowdown in output growth compared to a model without memory effect. Besides that, this study also found that output Y(t) is growing faster with the Variational Iteration method compared to the Adomian decomposition method. Also, using graphical simulation, this study found the output Y(t) is closer to the exact solution with α=0.4 and α=0.9. In conclusion, this study successfully solved natural growth with memory effect in economics and decided the best model between FDE, namely Adomian decomposition and Variational iterative methods using numerical analysis.

THE NATURAL AND MIGRATORY MOVEMENT OF THE RURAL POPULATION OF THE BANAT MOUNTAINS (1993-2016)

The article is based on the study of population dynamics in the rural area of the Banat Mountains. The study period ranged from 1993 to 2016. The aim of the paper was to observe the numerical evolution of the population and to make calculations on the evolution of some demographic indicators. Demographic indicators such as the natality, mortality, natural growth, natural, migratory movement and migratory growth of communes have been analyzed over the period mentioned. A first objective was to physically and then administratively delineate the Banat Mountains. The second objective was to obtain the necessary numerical data, then to process the data for each indicator. Data processing resulted in a series of indicator rates, and in addition, graphs were developed with the numerical evolution of newborns and deaths. The numerical data on the number of newborns and deaths were taken from the website of the National Institute of Statistics. There have been introduced in the Microsoft Excel 2013 program a few graphs. Also, through Microsoft Excel 2013, rates for demographic indicators were calculated, and then the results obtained were introduced into Arc Gis version 10.3. Finally, a series of maps on the territorial distribution of values for each indicator was generated.

Living for God

This chapter introduces readers to the childrearing logic of “religious restraint” and distinguishes it from Annette Lareau’s classic class-based childrearing strategies of “concerted cultivation” and “natural growth.” Deeply religious families do not fall into either of Lareau’s categories. Parents who raise their children with religious restraint exist across different social class groups. Children raised with religiously restraint (“abiders”) come to believe in God so deeply that it alters their sense of self—their idea of who they are. Teens believe that they are constantly being evaluated by God, which prompts them to change how they perceive themselves, how they carry themselves, and how they imagine their future selves. Living to please God shapes how teens see themselves and how they behave, which the chapter describes as developing a “God-centered self-concept.” Teens raised with religious restraint who develop a God-centered self-concept come from different genders, social class backgrounds, racial backgrounds, and religious traditions.

Technological Forecasting at the Stock Market

Under the assumption that competition (Darwinian in nature) reigns in the stock market, we analyzethe behavior of company stocks as if they were species competing for investors’ resources. The approachrequires the study of dollar values and share volumes, daily exchanged in the stock market, via logistic growthfunctions. These two variables, in contrast to prices, obey the law of natural growth in competition, which likeevery natural law, is endowed with predictability. A number of unexpected insights about the stock marketemerge. The forecasts indicate that whereas there is no looming crash in the near future, no significant growthshould be expected either. The DJIA is to hover around 9500 depicting large erratic excursions above andbelow this level for a few years. The use of Volterra-Lotka equations demonstrates that the 1987 crash alteredthe stock-bond interaction from a symbiotic to a predator-prey relationship with stocks acting as predators. This research work has lead to the publication of the book "An S-Shaped Trail to Wall Street" by T. Modis,(Growth Dynamics, Geneva, 1999).

The normal, the natural, and the harmonic

Use is made of rigorous definitions for the terms normal, natural, and harmonic to reveal a number of unfamiliaraspects about them. The Gaussian distribution is not sufficient to determine who is normal, and fluctuations above or below a natural-growth curve may or may not be natural. A recipe for harmonically sustained natural growthrequires that the overlap during the substitution process must be limited. As a consequence the overall growthprocess must experience good as well as bad "seasons".© 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The education ministries of the Hon. Josiah Alfred Hanan, 1912 and 1915-1919

The trend of educational progress in New Zealand has been modified by the historical, political and economic conditions existing from time to time. The development of the national system of education since its inception in the 1877 Act has proceeded at a varying pace owing to the variety of motives of those controlling education and the obstacles which they had to face. Except for a few phases in the history of this development, the moves were not well thought out or planned. Education progressed by an assortment of policies good and bad, by natural growth and by legislative accidents. Although this study of education is concerned with the administration of a single Minister during the years 1912 and 1915 to 1919 it will be necessary briefly to consider the educational background during the years 1877 to 1898.

The education ministries of the Hon. Josiah Alfred Hanan, 1912 and 1915-1919

The trend of educational progress in New Zealand has been modified by the historical, political and economic conditions existing from time to time. The development of the national system of education since its inception in the 1877 Act has proceeded at a varying pace owing to the variety of motives of those controlling education and the obstacles which they had to face. Except for a few phases in the history of this development, the moves were not well thought out or planned. Education progressed by an assortment of policies good and bad, by natural growth and by legislative accidents. Although this study of education is concerned with the administration of a single Minister during the years 1912 and 1915 to 1919 it will be necessary briefly to consider the educational background during the years 1877 to 1898.

Dynamic Assessment of the Flood Risk at Basin Scale under Simulation of Land-Use Scenarios and Spatialization Technology of Factor

Climate change, population increase, and urban expansion have increased the risk of flooding. Therefore, accurately identifying future changing patterns in the flood risk is essential. For this purpose, this study elaborated a new framework for a basin scale that employs a future land-use simulation model, a factor spatialization technique, and a novel hybrid model for scenario-based flood risk assessment in 2030 and 2050. Three land-use scenarios (i.e., natural growth scenario, cropland protection scenario, and ecological protection scenario) were set and applied in Jinjiang Basin to explore the changes in future flood risk under these scenarios. The results indicate the different degrees of increase in flood risk that will occur in the three scenarios. Under the natural growth (NG) scenario, the city will expand rapidly with the growth of population and economy, and the total area with high and very high flood risk will increase by 371.30 km2 by 2050, as compared to 2020. However, under the ecological protection (EP) scenario, woodlands will be protected, and the growth in population, economy, and built-up lands will slow down with slightly increased risk of flooding. In this scenario, the total area with high and very high flood risk will increase by 113.75 km2 by 2050. Under the cropland protection (CP) scenario, the loss of croplands will have been effectively stopped, and the flood risk will not show a significant increase under this scenario, with an increase by only 90.96 km2 by 2050, similar to the EP scenario. Spatially, these increased flood risks mainly locate at the periphery of existing built-up lands, and the high-flood-risk zones are mainly distributed in the southeast of the Jinjiang Basin. The information about increasing flood risk determined by the framework provides insight into the spatio-temporal characteristics of future flood-prone areas, which facilitates reasonable flood mitigation measures to be developed at the most critical locations in the region.